Karl Bode
News Guy
join:2000-03-02
Host:
Road Runner
PC gaming GAMES
PC gaming Tech
| reply to richb01803
Re: Don't worry, be happy
No, I imagine they have a nice mathematical formula all worked out, but that doesn't mean they won't be wrong.
Look at weatherman. The dolts can't be accurate more than 12 hours ahead, yet they bother to constantly come out with "five day forcasts" that change 12 times during the week.
This is the same thing. Just good banter for debate.
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The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it. |
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Skipdawg
The Original
Premium,ExMod 2001-03
join:2001-04-19
The Void
 ·surpasshosting
|  Very well said Leviathan. Any type of prediction know matter how much or little available information is always a 50/50 game of life plain and simple.
As the old saying says " Your Guess is as good as mine!" 
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*"Problems are only solutions waiting to be discovered"* |
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Karl Bode
News Guy
join:2000-03-02
Host:
Road Runner
PC gaming GAMES
PC gaming Tech
| Hah. It comes from my years of following the NFL, and listening to sports writers who cut bold swaths of predictions each pre-season and completely miss the mark on 90% of them. Applies to all aspects of life, especially business. 
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The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it. |
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richb01803
Rich
join:2001-02-14
02100
| The difference is in the sheer level of optimism.
It's one thing for a sportswriter to publish comments to the effect that "The New England Patriots sucked last year, will still suck this year, and will probably have to move to Houston before they'll ever see another chance at the Superbowl."
It's another for someone to say "The DSL industry is tanking now and will likely fail by 2006. Investors should look elsewhere, we recommend 5-year US Treasury notes."
The sportswriter would get to keep his job. If he's wrong, the worst thing that happens is a lot of bettors lose a few hundred bucks.
The industry analyst would get fired. So he has to give this happy-happy horsesh*t constantly, which makes it wrong even more of the time. Since they are wrong so often, a lot of investors suffer the worst-case scenario of losing thousands or tens of thousands of bucks.
The Wall Street game is really getting under my skin these days. |
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