Odie97
join:2006-04-19
Oak Creek, WI
| Earthlink is Toast
Earthlinks grand strategy to offer "muni-wireless" around an 802.11b/g technology is destined to fail ... their penetration numbers (projections) in tier one markets (where there are many other options) are seriously out of whack and to enter a market at $20 for a "data only" offering with no plan for how to take it to the next level is comical.
Muni wireless in my opinion is simply a bubble getting filled with hot air right now ... with a whole bunch of hype and when they actually deploy and the network conflicts and service quality goes down the toilet ... their stock and company will follow. Muni-wireless, at least in the way it is currently being deployed ... is a bubble waiting to burst. Each company that is doing it right now is saying they are "trying" different technologies and vendors because each time the try it one way if collapses when more than a few dozen users connect into the various node.
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Karl Bode
News Guy
join:2000-03-02 | It will be a niche solution for communities who can't get 3G or Wimax services from major players. That will of course be a significant portion of the country.... |
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TKJunkMail
Enjoy the sun
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join:2002-03-03
Avalon, NJ
 ·Sprint Mobile Broa..
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| reply to Odie97
Yes, I have to agree.
If Earthlink is depending on making money from city-wide WiFi rollouts, they are probably in very deep trouble. While the free, ad-supported, slow public WiFi will get some users(mostly tourists and travelling business persons), the paid part for faster access is likely to be a profit loss for earthlink unless speeds are greatly increased from where they are now. People just aren't going to pay more for 768/128 or 1500/256 WiFi than they can get from regular DSL providers at higher speeds.
Earthlink is doing everything possible to stay profitable, but the competition is much larger and better financed than they are. In the long run, they will probably sell out to a telco or cable or satellite competitor, whether they want to or not.
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Odie97
join:2006-04-19
Oak Creek, WI
| reply to Karl Bode
Exactly ... a "niche solution" ... and tier one cities are any but being niche communities. 3G and Wimax will be deployed first in the markets that Earthlink is going after. Wimax is being also being touted to be "licensed spectrum" and Earthlink does not have enough money to save themselves. The word being said by my stock adviser is SELL SELL SELL and QUICK QUICK QUICK (which I did a long time ago). I guess the good news will be when the bubble does burst there will be a fresh crop of stranded assets out there, not that they will be worth anything. |
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Karl Bode
News Guy
join:2000-03-02
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| I think they'll survive, but it's going to be a highly specialized market they fill and they'll be a relatively small operation maybe picked off by someone doing the same thing. Terrestrial Next-gen broadband networks are completely cut off from them, so the FCC really signed their death warrant some time back....
And as you say the major markets will be served by incumbent (either Sprint/Cable Wimax or telco Wimax 3G), so I don't see a lot of wiggle room either. |
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BillTager
join:2000-09-20
Charlotte, NC | reply to TKJunkMail
Do you just copy and paste the same response whenever Earthlink is the topic of discussion, or do you do it to all your posts?
»Earthlink's Adaptation
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