  laserjobs Premium join:2004-05-02 Las Vegas, NV
·Cox HSI
| reply to sholling Re: So Cal housing bubble ready to pop?
said by sholling :said by laserjobs :Here is a word of advice, appreciation can not be guaranteed but cash flows almost always can. Wait until you can get your mortgage payments lower than your rent payments. Therefore you do not need to worry about appreciation because you are always paying less than rent. You will never get house payment lower than rent payments unless you can afford to put 30% or more down. And not many of us can save up $120,000 while making someone else's house payments for them! My advice is not to count on appreciation but instead to buy a home to live in long-term so you don't have to pay inflated rent when you retire. And hey if it's value does go up you can chalk that up as a bonus. I'll use my home (it'll soon be for sale) as an example. The people that buy it (assuming 5% down) will have a $2,500 house payment (PITI) partly offset by $200/mo in tax savings. These townhomes rent for $1,500. Assuming rents continue to rise at 8% then that means in 6 years their house payment will be cheaper than rent. It also means that in 30 years they won't be eating cat food because they can't afford 4000/mo for rent. Their house will be paid off. It happens quite frequently where you can buy a house with no or little of your own equity and the mortgage payments are still less than rent. We are in an upside down market right now due to speculation of price appreciation. -- Trade Entertainment Book Coupons |
|
  sholling Premium join:2002-02-13 Hemet, CA
| said by laserjobs :said by sholling :said by laserjobs :Here is a word of advice, appreciation can not be guaranteed but cash flows almost always can. Wait until you can get your mortgage payments lower than your rent payments. Therefore you do not need to worry about appreciation because you are always paying less than rent. You will never get house payment lower than rent payments unless you can afford to put 30% or more down. And not many of us can save up $120,000 while making someone else's house payments for them! My advice is not to count on appreciation but instead to buy a home to live in long-term so you don't have to pay inflated rent when you retire. And hey if it's value does go up you can chalk that up as a bonus. I'll use my home (it'll soon be for sale) as an example. The people that buy it (assuming 5% down) will have a $2,500 house payment (PITI) partly offset by $200/mo in tax savings. These townhomes rent for $1,500. Assuming rents continue to rise at 8% then that means in 6 years their house payment will be cheaper than rent. It also means that in 30 years they won't be eating cat food because they can't afford 4000/mo for rent. Their house will be paid off. It happens quite frequently where you can buy a house with no or little of your own equity and the mortgage payments are still less than rent. We are in an upside down market right now due to speculation of price appreciation. I'm not doubting you, but I'm curious... How many homes do you own that you have bought for below the going rental price for the same home/area - in southern California? You'd be crazy not to own 8 or 9 with that built-in income stream. I'm actually impressed. What's your technique?
There are parts of the country where one might pick up a foreclosure at well below market but they are pretty rare here. Not unknown - just rare because of the thousands of people closely following the foreclosure market.
Once I move I will I'll be in a better position to dig deeper because I'll be going into real estate - more as a hobby than a career. Maybe I'll get lucky and score a couple of those. Anyway if I can't find a broker willing to let me limit my work week to 2-3 days a week than I'll just have to get my brokers license.  -- "Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." --FREDERIC BASTIAT--
|
|
  sholling Premium join:2002-02-13 Hemet, CA
| reply to dogma said by dogma :Gee, you are right; 31035 Lakeview Ave E, Nuevo, CA 92567 (never heard of Nuevo), 1900s.f. house on 1 Acre sold last summer for $464K. Here on Zillowplus a bunch more there. Unfortunately, I need to be 20min physically from one of my DC's. So looks like the desert for me. Take the 74 west from Palm Springs and you'll pass within blocks of me (on the other side of the mountain). I'll be 20-30 minutes from Idlewild were you find me sipping coffee a couple of times a week. The road is way too "sporty" to sip wine and drive.  -- "Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." --FREDERIC BASTIAT--
|
|
  jig
join:2001-01-05 Hacienda Heights, CA
| reply to dogma as far as the bubble bursting... it's still a matter of supply and demand, as others have already said, i guess. until the other people at your price point start moving out and aren't replaced, you won't find the prices dropping much. we might have the largest numbers leaving the state, but we also have the largest numbers entering... i'd love to see the breakdown on age. just guessing, those that are leaving are retirees cashing in and moving to arizona or new mexico.
property tax is going to be interesting. it's going to cause more than just a few bankruptcies/defaults. one thing that really bothers me.. with all this selling going on, why isn't there a HUGE influx of new property tax coming in? all i hear from sacramento is pissing about no money...
one thing that could help the market by dropping prices could be rumors of zoning laws changing to allow more vertical building. traffic is a part of that pressure, as is just general population glut. i had more of an inside line on what might be going on there in the past, right now the money involved in construction of high rise apartments is just too risky for too much work. much easier to just flip with minimal construction (remodel) and make more than a decent living wage. but when things steady, there could be some real movement towards more compact living inside the major city centers. santa monica proper might not rezone, but culver city and west la might. certainly any property up and down the 405... and that pressure relief might drop prices on some of the outlying cities.
still, even then, will more people move away than move to cal? doubtful.
by the way, how would a big earthquake drive general prices lower? i would think it would do the opposite. any house that would be habitable would be golden, same with any apartment building. -- A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin |
|
  laserjobs Premium join:2004-05-02 Las Vegas, NV
·Cox HSI
| reply to sholling said by sholling : I'm not doubting you, but I'm curious... How many homes do you own that you have bought for below the going rental price for the same home/area - in southern California? You'd be crazy not to own 8 or 9 with that built-in income stream. I'm actually impressed. What's your technique? There are parts of the country where one might pick up a foreclosure at well below market but they are pretty rare here. Not unknown - just rare because of the thousands of people closely following the foreclosure market. Once I move I will I'll be in a better position to dig deeper because I'll be going into real estate - more as a hobby than a career. Maybe I'll get lucky and score a couple of those. Anyway if I can't find a broker willing to let me limit my work week to 2-3 days a week than I'll just have to get my brokers license. It is all a numbers game, just keep running the numbers on income properties and you will see when the buying opportunity becomes available. -- Trade Entertainment Book Coupons |
|
  sholling Premium join:2002-02-13 Hemet, CA
1 edit | said by laserjobs :said by sholling : I'm not doubting you, but I'm curious... How many homes do you own that you have bought for below the going rental price for the same home/area - in southern California? You'd be crazy not to own 8 or 9 with that built-in income stream. I'm actually impressed. What's your technique? There are parts of the country where one might pick up a foreclosure at well below market but they are pretty rare here. Not unknown - just rare because of the thousands of people closely following the foreclosure market. Once I move I will I'll be in a better position to dig deeper because I'll be going into real estate - more as a hobby than a career. Maybe I'll get lucky and score a couple of those. Anyway if I can't find a broker willing to let me limit my work week to 2-3 days a week than I'll just have to get my brokers license. It is all a numbers game, just keep running the numbers on income properties and you will see when the buying opportunity becomes available. So.... you're saying you haven't bought 8 or 9 properties for less than they rent for? Why not? It would seem incredibly silly not too if you keep tripping over them... Was this something you perhaps read about or attended a seminar about? One of those advertised on TV at 3AM telling you that you can get rich with no down while buying property for less than what it rents for? Because you sound like one of their (out $399 for the tapes/"system") true believers. -- "Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." --FREDERIC BASTIAT--
|
|
  sholling Premium join:2002-02-13 Hemet, CA
1 edit | reply to dogma said by dogma :Gee, you are right; 31035 Lakeview Ave E, Nuevo, CA 92567 (never heard of Nuevo), 1900s.f. house on 1 Acre sold last summer for $464K. Here on Zillowplus a bunch more there. Unfortunately, I need to be 20min physically from one of my DC's. So looks like the desert for me. Having 15 years in IT (really more with gaps - do you remember CPM?) I can understand the distance thing. I really hated midnight line bounce pages in my last gig (my record was in excess of 200 in one night during the fall 2004 rains - not a dry pair left in Downey) and will not miss the WAN part of the business.
Verizon is pushing out masive quantities of fiber in the IE. My place in Chino will qualify for 15mb/2mb FIOS (fiber) internet service ($45/mo) within a month. My home in Hemet will have to wait 6mo to a year but is smack-dab in the path of the roll-out . -- "Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." --FREDERIC BASTIAT--
|
|
  nolancj
join:2002-06-30 Long Beach, CA
| reply to dogma SoCal is and has always been a tough rental market. There are some places in this country (Boston, NYC, SF) there rents are more in line with purchase payments. It just depends. But in SoCal, you really can't expect to pay 20% down on a house and make your loan payment + taxes + maintenance + etc on the rental income. In Boston, you can come really close. Mostly because of the influx of students each year (I have a friend who owns several properties there). |
|
  laserjobs Premium join:2004-05-02 Las Vegas, NV
·Cox HSI
| reply to sholling said by sholling :said by laserjobs :said by sholling : I'm not doubting you, but I'm curious... How many homes do you own that you have bought for below the going rental price for the same home/area - in southern California? You'd be crazy not to own 8 or 9 with that built-in income stream. I'm actually impressed. What's your technique? There are parts of the country where one might pick up a foreclosure at well below market but they are pretty rare here. Not unknown - just rare because of the thousands of people closely following the foreclosure market. Once I move I will I'll be in a better position to dig deeper because I'll be going into real estate - more as a hobby than a career. Maybe I'll get lucky and score a couple of those. Anyway if I can't find a broker willing to let me limit my work week to 2-3 days a week than I'll just have to get my brokers license. It is all a numbers game, just keep running the numbers on income properties and you will see when the buying opportunity becomes available. So.... you're saying you haven't bought 8 or 9 properties for less than they rent for? Why not? It would seem incredibly silly not too if you keep tripping over them... Was this something you perhaps read about or attended a seminar about? One of those advertised on TV at 3AM telling you that you can get rich with no down while buying property for less than what it rents for? Because you sound like one of their (out $399 for the tapes/"system") true believers. Sorry I did not attend the get rich quick make money in Real Estate seminar. It doesn't matter if it is real estate, stocks, pork bellies, businesses etc, I just like to run numbers and find buying into value and cash flows. If you don't believe me then you have never looked at purchasing apartment or commercial buildings. The first thing that should be handed to you is a cash flow sheet. It takes a lot of market research and will be the "wrong" time to be buying property unlike now which is the "right" time. 
To give you a clue it is when cash is harder to come by, pristine credit is required and the real estate market is slow. I always find measuring volume is a great way to gauge the buying opportunities. -- Trade Entertainment Book Coupons |
|
  HappyBunny Hi. Cram It. Premium join:2001-06-23 Long Beach, CA
·Charter Pipeline
| reply to dogma Why? What is so important about owning your "own" home here? I imagine your SoCal salary would be less in other area's where housing and the overall cost of living is significantly less. So if you worked in some other area of the country, you may make less than here, however housing would be much more affordable.
Owning your own home here positives:
1. Potential tax benefits 2. You can fix it up the way you want. 3. Potential increase in value/equity 4. (I can't think of anything else, can you?)
Yes, I want to have something paid off when I retire. How am I going to continue my rent of $1400 a month (a house payment in most parts of the country) when I have a fixed income?
I will probably end up living in a shack on the beach in Mexico--where I will probably see most of my friends, as none of them can afford to buy a house either. |
|
  sholling Premium join:2002-02-13 Hemet, CA
| reply to laserjobs said by laserjobs :Sorry I did not attend the get rich quick make money in Real Estate seminar. It doesn't matter if it is real estate, stocks, pork bellies, businesses etc, I just like to run numbers and find buying into value and cash flows. If you don't believe me then you have never looked at purchasing apartment or commercial buildings. The first thing that should be handed to you is a cash flow sheet. It takes a lot of market research and will be the "wrong" time to be buying property unlike now which is the "right" time.  To give you a clue it is when cash is harder to come by, pristine credit is required and the real estate market is slow. I always find measuring volume is a great way to gauge the buying opportunities. Now you're making sense. Everyone wants to by low and sell high and cash flow is critical in buying rental property. The key there is either the size of the down payment being large enough to allow you a positive cash flow from the beginning and/or finding a distressed property that can be purchased and renovated cheaply enough to give a positive cash flow. OPM (leverage) eats too deeply into cash flow to allow most of us to take advantage of the later.
My point is that in socal you will not buy a home for less than it rents for without a 30% down. -- "Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." --FREDERIC BASTIAT--
|
|
  sholling Premium join:2002-02-13 Hemet, CA
| reply to HappyBunny said by HappyBunny :I will probably end up living in a shack on the beach in Mexico--where I will probably see most of my friends, as none of them can afford to buy a house either. Bunny, come join the 909 world and commute, or better yet find a job out here. One of my neighbors would be happy to sell you their 3 bedroom 2-1/2 bath 2 car garage single shared wall townhomes for $350-370k, I believe 2 units are currently on the market. See my math earlier in the thread... -- "Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." --FREDERIC BASTIAT--
|
|
  aztecnology O Rly? Premium join:2003-02-12 Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| reply to dogma The bubble is upon us, oh yes...
»thehousingbubbleblog.com/
»www.piggington.com/
»patrick.net/wp/
»overvalued.blogspot.com/
»housingbubblecasualty.com/ |
|
  HappyBunny Hi. Cram It. Premium join:2001-06-23 Long Beach, CA
·Charter Pipeline
| reply to sholling said by sholling :said by HappyBunny :I will probably end up living in a shack on the beach in Mexico--where I will probably see most of my friends, as none of them can afford to buy a house either. Bunny, come join the 909 world and commute, or better yet find a job out here. One of my neighbors would be happy to sell you their 3 bedroom 2-1/2 bath 2 car garage single shared wall townhomes for $350-370k, I believe 2 units are currently on the market. See my math earlier in the thread... Yeesh, I cant afford that! Almost $400,000 for a townhouse in the 909 and the privelege of a commute to Irvine?
If I had to go live in the IE, I would just go back to Ohio, where its all cheaper. |
|
  CurtesyFlush Bababooey, fafafooey, tatatoothy. Premium join:2002-08-23 Fontana, CA | If I had to move from the beach to the IE I'd kill myself.
Oh wait, that's exactly what I did. Goodbye cruel world.... -- Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est. |
|
  sholling Premium join:2002-02-13 Hemet, CA
| reply to HappyBunny said by HappyBunny :Yeesh, I cant afford that! Almost $400,000 for a townhouse in the 909 and the privelege of a commute to Irvine? If I had to go live in the IE, I would just go back to Ohio, where its all cheaper. Bunny, it's a not bad a drive down the 71 (they just widened it) to about a mile or two of 91 hell and then a 70mph run down the 241 to Irvine. It's probably a quicker commute than you put up with now, and you'll own your home. This is Chino, not BFE! It's lots nicer than most of Long Beach. Hey, I'm from the OC and you couldn't drag me back.
Besides it really is a great place to live. I'm really, really going to miss it. Where else in socal does the mayor and the city council publish their home phone numbers on the city website? The pace of life is a little slower, the school systems is pretty good, there's great shopping, we have Verizon FIOS super high speed internet, and real full sized parking spaces - plus friendly people. Ok, well that might be a problem, but you're from Ohio and have delt with friendly people before.  -- "Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else." --FREDERIC BASTIAT--
|
|
  laserjobs Premium join:2004-05-02 Las Vegas, NV
·Cox HSI
| said by sholling :said by HappyBunny :Yeesh, I cant afford that! Almost $400,000 for a townhouse in the 909 and the privelege of a commute to Irvine? If I had to go live in the IE, I would just go back to Ohio, where its all cheaper. Bunny, it's a not bad a drive down the 71 (they just widened it) to about a mile or two of 91 hell and then a 70mph run down the 241 to Irvine. It's probably a quicker commute than you put up with now, and you'll own your home. This is Chino, not BFE! It's lots nicer than most of Long Beach. Hey, I'm from the OC and you couldn't drag me back. Besides it really is a great place to live. I'm really, really going to miss it. Where else in socal does the mayor and the city council publish their home phone numbers on the city website? The pace of life is a little slower, the school systems is pretty good, there's great shopping, we have Verizon FIOS super high speed internet, and real full sized parking spaces - plus friendly people. Ok, well that might be a problem, but you're from Ohio and have delt with friendly people before. Business getting slow sholling?  -- Trade Entertainment Book Coupons |
|
  dogma Premium join:2002-08-15 Boulder City, NV
| reply to HappyBunny Bun, here is a quick exercise and reality check: Lets say you can "afford" a $300,000 condo.
5% down = $15,000 P&I payment = $ 2,071/Mo.(Your Monthly Payment for 30 Years for an Interest Rate of 7.9 % on a Loan Amount of $285,000.00:) Insurance payment = $60/Mo. HOA fees = $200/Mo. (after all, it is a condo.)
Total per month: $2,331.00 Now you have a place to call your own, and you save about $6000/yr on your taxes with your new deduction (assuming you make $70K/yr). --so you get a tax benefit of $500/mo, BUT you are paying out an EXTRA $500/Mo. for the privilege. Plus you just got off of $15K.
You are now "house broke" most likely. In that your bring home check, after all the garbage is taken out, is most likely in the area of $3500/Mo. - $2331 = $1169. Not much to live on. I'm guessing on your income, so you can play with the numbers.
Option 2: Save the extra $500/Mo you would be spending until the market drops 25% from its value now.
Whats that you say?? What if the market values keep going up forever? You will never own a home and you will need to move to Mexico and push a shopping cart full of bags around mumbling to yourself?? -NOT
Because if you SAVE that $500/mo + the $15,000 down payment, for the same 30 years as your mortgage payment...with the magic of compound interest (6%/yr) you will have: $ 595,107.44. If you pay just a little attention, you should have (9%/yr) $1,143,195.67 in CASH.
There are many ways to skin a cat. |
|
  CurtesyFlush Bababooey, fafafooey, tatatoothy. Premium join:2002-08-23 Fontana, CA
| reply to sholling said by sholling :This is Chino, not Fontana! -- Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est. |
|
  jig
join:2001-01-05 Hacienda Heights, CA | reply to dogma 9% a year, hmm? by paying just a little attention?
how much is a $300k condo worth in 30 years? |
|