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tthnow

join:2006-06-07
Oakland, CA

[northeast] Verizon FIOS/ Northern Cal?

Hi All

I am from Northern Cal and see that FIOS is avaliable to Southern Cal. Does anyone if North is in the works?



Kingscup

join:2006-03-01

Verizon does not cover Northern California. Do a google search on AT&T's fiber optic service and see what they are planning. I believe it is called Lightspeed.


rreola86

join:2005-08-01
Sanger, CA

downloadCLR_SM.zip 1,986,383 bytes
California telco service map
(CLR_SM.pdf)
downloadVZ.zip 94,153 bytes
Verizon wired service area
(VZ.pdf)
Actually, they do. Verizon is the ILEC in a few communities south and east of Eureka, Novato (in the Bay Area) Los Gatos, Morgan Hill, and Gilroy (south of San Jose), in addition to several dozen communities in the Central Valley and east of the Sierra Nevada mountains. I don't know if they're bring FiOS to any of these places yet, but I do have an idea as to where they might go.

Ulmo

join:2005-09-22
Aptos, CA

said by rreola86:

but I do have an idea as to where they might go.
I'm only a couple dozen miles from many Verizon ILEC areas, according to your wonderful maps above. I am strongly considering moving into one of those areas when FIOS is available, and chosing an apartment in which I can get it (e.g., necessary landlord permissions, etc. all verified as OK or that I know I could get it in). What is your idea of where they might go, what is it based upon, and how good is the information, i.e., do you know anybody in actual planning?

Since there are a number of communities within a few hundred miles of me that are Verizon areas, knowing the first one they'll turn FIOS on with would be pertinent to me. I guess the idea is that they'll do everywhere, but that they will come here last since every phone company, cable company, and ISP always comes here (North California) last.

But, as soon as the backbones are in place, they could start work.

Ulmo

join:2005-09-22
Aptos, CA

4 edits

I wrote this to forum moderator Justin so he can correct the map, and I realized the comments I made at the end were vaguely interesting to those who wanted to read this forum. The data I wrote to Justin was entirely from the above posted PDF files, which are great, and I encourage anyone reading this to look at those PDF files. I then added some more from census data web sites and more comments to round out this post. It's a bit long. Perhaps it can be better summarized at a later time, or analyzed for incorrectness.

VERIZION FIOS MAP: following pin must be incorrect:

Around Santa Clara, Mountain View
surnish
14522 kbps
sttlwa.fios.verizon.net

I suspect it has more to do with Seattle, Washington, USA than it does with Mountain View, California.

The Verizon areas nearest to Mountain View, California, according to maps and my personal knowledge, are (in estimated order of closeness with cardinal direction using service area map posted in your forum from map data from SBC):

Los Gatos (S 15 miles)
Morgan Hill (SE 30 miles)
Gilroy (SE 40 miles, S of Morgan Hill)
Manteca (E 50 miles)
Ripon (E 60 miles, E of Manteca)
Novato (NW 60 miles)
Farmington (E 80 miles, NE of Manteca/Ripon)
Linden (E 80 miles, N of Farmington)
Kenwood (N 80 miles, N of Novato)
Clements (E 80 miles, N of Linden)
Dos Palos (SE 80 miles)
Snelling (E 95 miles, E and a bit S of Ripon, and NE of Gilroy)

(Note that for the below discussion, "urban" (many homes per acre, usually a very large number) probably means what Easterners would call "suburban", since that's pretty much all we have in Northern California, except for some quirky places like San Francisco, and some highly impacted places like Santa Cruz.)

The areas that have Verizon tend to be what used to be small town areas just outside of traditional metropolitan areas, i.e., what used to be just farm places, but now where most new homes are being built and often seeing high digit count percent growth rates, and which geographically happen to have very large footprints, covering massive percentage of northern California populated areas (as well as a bunch of very large unpopulated areas). It would make a lot of sense for Verizon to do stuff (FIOS) there if there is any sense in gaining market share regardless of competition (I'm not sure how it relates to competition, so I may be wrong), but they have been slow so far since there is no FIOS data for Verizon in northern California.

Reviewing Google Earth for the above list alone shows (note that Google Earth may be EXTREMELY OUTDATED in these areas):

Los Gatos (S 15 miles): Portions of area heavily populated.
Morgan Hill (SE 30 miles): Portions of area heavily populated.
Gilroy (SE 40 miles, S of Morgan Hill): Portions of area heavily populated.

Very very roughly one tenth of those three above areas look like urban high density areas, with the rest being rural/forest/field (almost no homes). 2003 census for Los Gatos 27,976; Morgan Hill 34,128; Gilroy 43,817; for total census pop est year of 2003 105,921 for Santa Clara county in Verizon area (Los Gatos Verizon area extends into rural areas like Santa Cruz mountains, a few homes there, not many, but could also be served if they wanted to (very long driveways though) since they're clustered around a main road).

Manteca (E 50 miles): Moderately large urban area.
Ripon (E 60 miles, E of Manteca): smaller urban area.
Farmington (E 80 miles, NE of Manteca/Ripon): rural
Linden (E 80 miles, N of Farmington): rural, small neighborhood
Clements (E 80 miles, N of Linden): basically nothing at all.

Manteca and Ripon seem like very populated areas, perhaps a couple dozen thousand people?? The rest are completely too rural I think. Above two main urban areas census pop est 2003 Manteca 59,500; Ripon not even listed (!), so I guess about 10,000. So, I was right by my estimates. Note that Manteca (a place most people haven't even heard of) has a higher population than any of the three above individual Santa Clara county Verizon areas which most Northern California people in the region have heard of.

Novato (NW 60 miles)
Kenwood (N 80 miles, N of Novato)

Novato 2003 census est 48,383 people; Kenwood not listed. According to Google Earth, Novato is high density suburban surrounded by rural (forested) areas and Kenwood is rural, with only a few small neighborhoods (perhaps almost a thousand people in the suburban grided town area). Novato is someplace people around here think "hmm, where is that? I know I think I might have heard of it once. Does it exist?" Kenwood? That's a stereo brand, not a town.

Dos Palos (SE 80 miles)
Snelling (E 95 miles, E and a bit S of Ripon, and NE of Gilroy)

Dos Palos isn't listed, and Snelling also isn't listed. Google Earth shows Dos Palos as a small town, and Snelling as almost nothing.

So, like I said, Verizon areas in North California tend to be places that used to be outside of metropolitan areas, but are starting to get the big foot print of pandemic population growth out of control in California. In the above areas alone (Verizon areas within about 100 miles of Mountain View, California), 2003 census estimates include at least 213,804 people, and I think at least that total number of people live in high density suburban/urban areas of Verizon territory, especially now in 2006 and considering that those census estimates are for city limits which might not get all the sprawl. Those 213,804 people are spread in 5 big high density areas: Manteca (59,500), Novato (48,383), Gilroy (43,817), Morgan Hill (34,128), and Los Gatos (27,976, but not sure how the Verizon borders match the Los Gatos borders; LG is nearest to Silicoln Valley).

My guess is that some of the unpopulated far eastern spots in the above data may not be developed for many more decades, but with real estate the way it is, I wouldn't be surprised if I am wrong.

In comparison, Ontario (167402) and Huntington Beach (194248) (both in South California and both being FIOSed now) individually have almost as many people each as all those North California areas I looked up combined (what kind of population?). There is one major difference: the North California areas are more likely to be growth areas than those two South California areas, but:

I have a feeling the total number of Verizon subscribers in South California is millions, whereas the total number of Verizon subscribers in North California is only a couple hundred thousand at most. If you look at the SBC/Verizon PDF map above, you note that Verizon has Los Angeles region surrounded, so heavy growth there is in their territory.

How long before Verizon is willing to fiber isolated "communities" with only 40,000 population? (Keep in mind they already have copper infrastructure in those areas for most people.) How about if they consider that about 100,000 population of those "isolated" "communities" are within 40 miles of some of the biggest Internet peering points in the world?


JohnA
Premium
join:2003-09-16
Pittsburgh, PA


You have too much time on your hands.
The person that runs the speed test enters the zipcode. If it's wrong, it's wrong.


Ulmo

join:2005-09-22
Aptos, CA

Well, thanks for telling me what to do with my time. In addition, I just referred to my own work here to see if a location was in the list of Verizon places here in North California area. Perhaps no one else found it useful, though.

Looking at a recent San Jose Mercury News article about population growth, Verizon has a lot of the best new growth areas in South California. They did not do any such broad strategic positioning in North California, perhaps only due to chance, so their opinion about future growth opportunities here may be very limited.