Karl Bode
News Guy
join:2000-03-02
Host:
Road Runner
PC gaming GAMES
PC gaming Tech
| reply to Primis1
Re: Well...
YouTube is over-valued. No doubt. And there's no clear proof they're able to make a profit.
quote:
He's right, in that YouTube would need a much more-solid plan in order to justify its value to anyone.
But he's not just saying that. He's traditionally stated on-line indie broadband video will fail no matter what. That includes Apple, Google, Youtube, whomever. His opinion is that if you don't partner with the cable industry, you will fail.
And as far as business models working, it doesn't need to in order to erode Cuban's - or say Time Warner Cable's customer base. Because YouTube isn't a massive money maker means it won't erode traditional video customers as the sector blooms?
Assume YouTube gets sued and survives. They fight a convoluted DMCA battle and lose, they still can offer indie content (which hopefully improves) and content from outfits like the Daily Show that don't mind rebroadcast.
Assume YouTube gets sued and dies. A thousand replacements spring up, many offshore and out of the reach of Cuban's lawyers.
Either way the traditional video model is in trouble. Indie producers will become big-time producers, and customers will drift away from traditional TV if the content is there.
Maybe not today, but in a few years as the pipes widen, watch out. Cuban knows this, but is doing a gloom and doom tap-dance to scare off serious investors and advertisers from rival video solutions. |
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Primis1
join:2005-06-13
Coldwater, MI
| said by Karl Bode  :Either way the traditional video model is in trouble. Indie producers will become big-time producers, and customers will drift away from traditional TV if the content is there. Aside from pure conjecture and speculation, has there been ANY evidence to back this up, Karl? What exactly is going to spark this great shift, and move people to it?
OnDemand and DVR's seem to be pretty popular with people and I don't see any crying out for a shift away from it. And your cablecos and dish providers are well in control of those already. These things have already given the end user more control over what they watch and when.
Nor do I see people spending hours and hours on YouTube -- they digets things in bite-sized 5-minute increments usually. There's really nothing stopping a cableco from offering their own YouTube-ish servcie through OnDemand, which then renders anything else irrelevant.
It seems like a pretty poor plan if you're banking on everything panning out just so, because there's simply no evidence anyone does really want it... |
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Plldwnyrpnts
join:2003-04-19
Chicago, IL
2 edits | reply to Karl Bode
said by Karl Bode
Either way the traditional video model is in trouble. Indie producers will become big-time producers, and customers will drift away from traditional TV if the content is there.
Maybe not today, but in a few years as the pipes widen, watch out. Cuban knows this, but is doing a gloom and doom tap-dance to scare off serious investors and advertisers from rival video solutions.
Correct. The traditional video model is in trouble. But I don't think indie producers will be enough to woo the masses.
Society still appears to be in sheep mode. "Tell me what, when and why, and I will." Those who choose to have their content on demand are the thinkers, movers and shakers. Is society moving in that direction? Is that going to become the norm? Can it be made the norm? I surely can't answer that.
Indie production is always such a hit and miss with the hitters going corporate as the flaunted money rules all. |
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Karl Bode
News Guy
join:2000-03-02
Host:
Road Runner
PC gaming GAMES
PC gaming Tech
| reply to Primis1
quote:
Aside from pure conjecture and speculation, has there been ANY evidence to back this up, Karl?
I'm working on a time-machine to show the doubters what the future looks like, but there's some hangups with the flux capacitor.
Who can deny that broadband video poses a future threat to a closed broadcast network and traditional TV other than myopic cable industry insiders? Are you kidding?
Mountains of bandwidth and millions of broadband users? It doesn't take a prophet to figure out the traditional distribution methods will have their hands full. quote:
OnDemand and DVR's seem to be pretty popular with people and I don't see any crying out for a shift away from it.
Yes. Right now when the vast majority of Americans have 3Mbps or connections (or none), and some 45% still like dial-up....which is also the reason YouTube is only offering "bite sized" video.
This is much, much bigger than YouTube.
Are we really this incapable of seeing the big picture here and looking down the road five years? |
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Rogue Wolf
Is Kind Of A Big Deal In Yemen
join:2003-08-12
Troy, NY
 ·RoadRunner Cable
| reply to Karl Bode
said by Karl Bode :But he's not just saying that. He's traditionally stated on-line indie broadband video will fail no matter what. That includes Apple, Google, Youtube, whomever. His opinion is that if you don't partner with the cable industry, you will fail. Therein lies the rub. While I'll admit that this man makes quite a bit more money than I do (and his financial advice therefore carries more weight), I chafe at his seeming insistence that if media is not created by "the establishment"- and, of course, carried to us through his "pipes"- then it has no inherent worth or use and should be disregarded. It smacks of the same arrogance that media moguls show when dismissing blogs. I remember one person going so far as to insist that only "veteran reporters" (such as himself) should be allowed to express their opinion to the masses.
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Let not the Demon in your thoughts.
Let not the Demon in your dreams.
Lest you should awake one morn,
And find the Demon within thee. |
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