dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| California; More Leaving, Less Coming
For the first time since 1998, the people who relocated from California to other states outnumbered those who migrated in from other states, according to a report released by the state's Department of Finance...about 40,000 as of October 2006.
According to the Census Bureau - the source of all of this data - California experienced net losses of citizens to the rest of the nation every year from 1990 through 1998. From 1999 to 2005 the trend was net population gains. Now the out-migration pattern is starting again.
Moreover, as long as California continues to be a net exporter of people to the rest of the United States, and a net importer from Latin America, it is essentially losing mainly middle-class households and primarily gaining poor ones. This factor, along with the recession of the early-1990s, contributes to a 21.5% increase in the percentage of the state's population with incomes below the poverty line, from 13.9% in 1990 to 16.9% in 1996.
»www.nreionline.com/mag/real_esta···tential/
Additionally, I read a very good, very well documented article on the housing (real estate bubble bursting) market that suggest values may drop as much as 40% over the next 18 Months: »www.investorsinsight.com/thoughts.aspx
A few of us here are actively plotting a "jail break", and I know this topic has been visited before. How much more imported poverty can California absorb and do any of you agree with these current findings? |
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81399672
Premium
join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA | so how long before we see reduction in traffic? Regarding the finding, specifically about real estate. I do not agree that it will dorp 40%. It may drop another 5-7 but it will not drop 40% unless we have a major earthquake |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| I have seen the real estate market here in California drop 25% - 30% back from 1989 - 1994. So it's possible.
A neighbor of ours has had their house up for sale since June. They started with an asking of about $820K, now they are down to asking $685K. It may seem the original asking was too high, but several (comparable) homes within a mile sold for above $900K in the previous 12 Months.
I don't think we will ever see a reduction in traffic. My orbit (the distance I am comfortable driving from my home) has been getting smaller and smaller over the past 10 years. There was a time when I didn't think twice about driving to Long Beach for cocktails with friends, now the criteria is it must be a funeral or a wedding.
Perhaps I am just getting old? |
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nightdesigns
Gone missing, back soon
Premium
join:2002-05-31
AZ
 ·Cox HSI
| reply to dogma
The housing market is already taking a pretty good hit. I'm looking at buying a house next summer or so and I've been watching the market. In some of the areas I've been looking at, I've seen houses come down 80k+ since summer and that's on a $500k place. Granted, a lot of the market was overpriced to begin with, but we should soon see places going for less than market value soon.
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[[Your signature here]] |
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CurtesyFlush
Bababooey, fafafooey, tatatoothy.
Premium
join:2002-08-23
Fontana, CA
| reply to dogma
said by dogma  :Perhaps I am just getting old? I'll drink to that. You're about 3 years away from spending your days down at the barber shop cussin and discussin the same old shit with Grady and Rollo. Lamont'll be there too, he's getting old.
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Life Member, NRA and CRPA. |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| said by CurtesyFlush :said by dogma :Perhaps I am just getting old? I'll drink to that. You're about 3 years away from spending your days down at the barber shop cussin and discussin the same old shit with Grady and Rollo. Lamont'll be there too, he's getting old. Your forgot Skillet & LeRoy |
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jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA
| reply to dogma
the investor insight thing doesn't seem to work with firefox.
other than that, i don't buy it. there might have been some people who bailed, but there's been some talk about jobs opening up, hirings going on. it'll be interesting to see what happens if the defense contracts evaporate with the iraq conflict, but in actuality the police state is so ingrained at the moment, i don't see sales dropping off in that market for at least another 10 years.
i think there are a bunch of us with cash waiting for the housing market to drop a bit... probably too many. that by itself will keep the market buoyant. job cuts don't seem to be imminent, so the fools with super huge mortgage payments won't be defaulting as much as you'd hope.
i'm still thinking that houses in the 400-700k range will be able to sell, but there is a house on our street that's been on the market for a bit. i haven't found out what they're asking (it's probably too much), but it hasn't been too long...
anyway, 40% might be what the 2mill and above will drop, i doubt anything below 1.5 will drop nearly that much. and i'm not sure where the information about there being an exodus from CA is coming from, but i think that's in error. i would, however, like to see some decent numbers about incoming illegals/poor immigrants. i was getting the feeling that those numbers were dropping as well.
aside: that vast majority of out of state students i went to college with stayed in CA. unless that trend has changed, i don't see the arizona retirees beating those numbers.
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A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
 ·Verizon FIOS
| reply to dogma
Depending on the local market, many areas have already been shaved 10-15-20%, I think another 10-15-20% decline is in order over the next 2 years.
A big key will be when the banks/reo's actually start dropping their prices, right now they are still pricing very aggressivly in the market. As the foreclosure's/reo's keep adding up the lenders will have no choice but to be more proactive in leaning out their balance sheets. This along with the builders/developers that will continue to build housing to move land, because they can still eek out a profit giving $100k in incentives and upgrades, the combination of these two forces will continue to put the squeeze on prices.
Did I forget to mention ARM resets of a trillion dollars coming due this year, for over extendened house atm using mcmansion dwelling exurbanites...
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
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Bloominite
Premium
join:2004-04-17
clubs:
 ·DSL EXTREME
| If the past is any indicator, any increase in interest rates for newly initiated mortgages will also trigger a drop in selling price to compensate for the higher rate. There was an extreme example of that occurring when mortgage interest rates shot up at the tale end of the 70s. The pool of potential home buyers are, for the most part, classic payment buyers whose budget can only withstand a predetermined monthly payment and the selling prices will adjust downward when rates go up just as they adjusted upward when the rates fell.
I'm of the opinion that most people who bought homes over the last 2 years or so paid too much for them and within a year, we'll see prices settle back to where they were in 03 or 04. |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| said by Bloominite :If the past is any indicator, any increase in interest rates for newly initiated mortgages will also trigger a drop in selling price to compensate for the higher rate. That's a good point, it will be interesting to see what the Fed does today, and how it will affect mortgage rates. I think a lot of places are hitting 2004 pricing right now, if rates tick up and the rate of foreclosure stays constant, then there's no question that we'll be looking at early 2003 prices...
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
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Bloominite
Premium
join:2004-04-17
clubs:
·DSL EXTREME
| reply to dogma
said by dogma :A few of us here are actively plotting a "jail break", and I know this topic has been visited before. How much more imported poverty can California absorb and do any of you agree with these current findings? You can count my wife and I among those plotting an escape. We actually built a house in Arizona a few years ago and would have been gone long ago if my grandmother didn't need our help to stay out of the convalescent home.
I'm a 52 year-old native Californian and willing to bet that 70-80% of the people I grew up with here in SoCal have moved to other states. My bro and I are here, but both my sisters left and only 1 first cousin (out of 16) is still here. With few exceptions, my friends and family that have left have been the brightest, those with the best educations and earning the highest incomes.
When my dad (also a native) died last year, he was the last of his siblings living in CA as his 3 brothers has moved to AZ and NV. My mom is also the last of her family here and she's leaving at the 1st of the year when she makes her big move to San Ignacio, Baja Sur.
Maybe CA will see a turnaround and again become as nice a place to live as it used to be, but I don't see it happening. The infrastructure is busting at the seams, social services are overburdened and the people best suited to correct and fund the much needed improvements are bailing out in droves. |
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vincejr
join:2005-06-15
Los Angeles, CA
| reply to CurtesyFlush
said by CurtesyFlush :said by dogma :Perhaps I am just getting old? I'll drink to that. You're about 3 years away from spending your days down at the barber shop cussin and discussin the same old shit with Grady and Rollo. Lamont'll be there too, he's getting old. Grady went feet up some time back. »www.deadoraliveinfo.com/dead.nsf···+Whitman |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| reply to jig
said by jig :...jobs opening up, hirings going on. ...i think there are a bunch of us with cash waiting for the housing market to drop a bit... ...the fools with super huge mortgage payments won't be defaulting as much as you'd hope. ...40% might be what the 2mill and above will drop, i doubt anything below 1.5 will drop ...i don't see the arizona retirees beating those numbers. Depends on what kind of jobs will be coming online. The $12 - $20/Hr variety will not support today's average home mortgage, even with hocus-pocus loan packages.
The "fools" don't have super huge mortgage payments now, but as those negative-amortizing interest-only-teaser-rate-no-doc-stated-income loans reset, like aztecnology suggested, things may become rather ugly. Especially with the new BK laws, which are equivalent to debtors jail, without the bars. A 40% decline may be conservative.
The wildcard in this deck may be newer, even more bizarre loan programs of NegAm-IntOnly 50-60 Year re-fi programs that bail these "fools" out. But they will never own, or accrue equity in the property...so it will be like perpetual renting with the ability to remodel. (Mortgage lenders are learning from the credit card companies that it's much more profitable to keep consumer-bots in everlasting-debt)
said by Bloominite :Maybe CA will see a turnaround and again become as nice a place to live as it used to be, but I don't see it happening. The infrastructure is busting at the seams, social services are overburdened and the people best suited to correct and fund the much needed improvements are bailing out in droves. I would tend to agree. It's more of a brain drain. |
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Ptomaine
And thus begins the web
join:2003-04-07
Beaver Dam, WI
| reply to dogma
I'm one of the statistics. I've been a Wisconsin resident for six weeks now. Come and join me. The weather is great. 
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All the best freaks are here.Please stop staring at me! |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| reply to jig
Found this article in the L.A. Times yesterday:
»www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-o···ll.story
Basically, voodoo economics on Meth smoked in a well seasoned crack pipe...otherwise known as "pay option" mortgage loans. Here one can get a $300K no-down loan (or even worse, a re-fi or HeLOC) for about $1000/Mo. You have the "option" of paying an absolute minimum...for a while. Of course in 4 years, the payment automatically jumps to almost $3000/Mo. And more than likely, the $300K principal would then be $350K.
Think only an idiot would go for such a scam? Think again;
said by L.A. Times :
In the first eight months of 2006, even as the real estate market began to weaken amid fears of a downturn, the appeal increased again. Nearly 1 in 3 California loan applicants are now choosing them. The state boasts about 580,000 active pay option mortgages, about half the U.S. total.
The article features this 56-year old guy (I imagine there are at least 2 million Californians in this same situation) that lives in Corona who blew almost $200K in re-fi's over the years...and now it's time to pay the piper. If he sold his house today, he would need to bring about $35K to the closing, which he doesn't have, and then he would be homeless, without a dime to his name.
Of course, he blames it on 9/11 and his loan broker. |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| said by dogma :Of course, he blames it on 9/11 and his loan broker. Don't forget his acumen with dotcom stocks and his brilliant move into equities...  |
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Bloominite
Premium
join:2004-04-17
clubs:
·DSL EXTREME
| reply to vincejr
said by vincejr :said by CurtesyFlush :said by dogma :Perhaps I am just getting old? I'll drink to that. You're about 3 years away from spending your days down at the barber shop cussin and discussin the same old shit with Grady and Rollo. Lamont'll be there too, he's getting old. Grady went feet up some time back. » www.deadoraliveinfo.com/dead.nsf···+Whitman Grady was another famous Fontuckian:
»www.the-cape.com/the_cape/whit/biograph.htm |
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SOLdesign
Did I drink a shot of Irrational Whore?
Premium
join:2002-07-29
Woodland Hills, CA | reply to dogma
we too are plotting an escape... |
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Lovehound
join:2005-08-18
Northridge, CA | reply to dogma
I've been coming less since 1998 too. I can appreciate that statistic. Well actually I don't . . .   |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV | ...dude |
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