plk
bo may sleep in loft
Premium
join:2002-04-20
Ogden, IA
|  Governement bailout : Small investor cry
Regardless, Fiber or copper I smell a government bailout down the road.
The Bells (some anyway) are milking copper for all its worth. The heard mentality of investors and short sightedness are most of the problem. Like many others have noted....the desire for a 15% return. This economic model is destroying this country, but that's another debate.
What my worries are is the future Government bailout. The Bells (CEO and shareholders) have been sucking all the cream off the top for years now. Their days are numbered unless someone pulls a Rabbit out of the hat (Like No Net Neutrality). They have to find a way to pay for this buildout that is coming. Now, in 5 years or 15, the Bells have to find a way to stay alive. They have enjoyed a monopoly for to long. Offering TV is a must, but only a short term solution and a highly competitive market. No monopoly here. Especially 10 years down the road.
In 10 years the cell phone providers will be also offering wireless Internet both fixed and mobile. Lagging in speeds, but packaged to fit the needs of most just as the Internet of today suits most. This will mean another provider the Bells must content with. (Smell the bells buying up cell phone providers???)
So what are the Bells going to offer? Voice is on it's way to being free or not being a real source of revenue to say the least. TV really isn't the answer neither. Since they don't own the content it will have little return. Far lacking what is needed to fight off the Cables who most of which have fiber and DOCSIS 3.0 just a small investment away...relatively speaking.
Frankly, I see the Bells as dying if they fail to deploy fiber NOW. These stop gap measures really solve nothing and tend to increase debt and really do nothing for 10 years down the road.
So what can the Bells do? Keep skimming the cream off until the end and then ask the tax payers to bail them out is my fear. I can see the reasoning now. Cables will be a monopoly if we don't. Sure, we will have mobile and fixed wireless, but it will not be at a level to handle the demands on the net needed in 10 years.
So who do you want to bail out? Verizon who is taking a risk and deploying FTTH or Qwest? These mergers (if they happen) will make this matter even worse. The Rabbit out of the hat model of innovation for the Bells is about over. Especially if they don't get their two tiered Internet. (maybe I shouldn't of said that out loud. I can see the rational now.....its so we don't have to bail them out down the road.) Keep on congress folks!
Like I have said before, I see a price per gig model in our future. A generation after generation of tech savoy kids coming of age and plenty of demand for the bandwidth some see no need for. Really what choice do the Bells have? What is their future without FTTH? They best get that damn wagon out in front of the horse and pray for plenty of killer apps, HDTV web cams, 3d graphics, and streaming 4 HDTV signals to the home under a price per gig model......... or run to congress and pay for another monopoly sweetheart deal.
In the end, if a bailout occurs I want to bailout Verizon not Qwest. Least then we will have some fiber to show for It. Small shareholder walk away empty handed and the fat cats are long gone holding the bag. Frankly, the stock market will lead to the downfall of this country. I see it as another Amway (spelling)....another pyramid scheme in the bigger picture of things.
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