Jason Levine
Premium
join:2001-07-13
Albany, NY
| AOL continues it's decline
From Q2 2006 to Q3 2006, AOL lost 2.5 million subscribers. Over the past year (Q3 2005 to Q3 2006), they've lost 4.9 million. Plus, the number two ISP (Comcast) is now within striking distance of AOL. They went from 8.1 million to 11 million last year, for a gain for 3.1 million. If AOL continues to lose subscribers at this rate, and Comcast continues to gain at that rate, then 2007 will be the year that AOL topples from the top slot.
My predictions:
1. Quarter 2 of 2007 will be the Quarter That AOL Fell. Comcast will take over the top spot. Meanwhile, SBC and RoadRunner will be nipping at AOL's heals.
2. By Quarter 4 of 2007, AOL will be ranked third behind Comcast and SBC and just a hair ahead of RoadRunner. (It might even be fourth if RoadRunner picks up the pace slightly.)
3. AOL's subscriber bleed will accelerate after they aren't number one anymore. However, after awhile, AOL will be left with a core group of AOLers who, for whatever reason, continue to insist on paying AOL for Internet access. That core group won't dissipate easily and AOL's slide will slow down to a trickle. Of course, by that point, AOL won't be in the top 5 ISPs anymore. We'll probably see the "Core group" come into effect sometime in 2008. |
