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dogma
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join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| Home Values going down the toliet? said by USA TODAY :
WASHINGTON (AP) — Mortgage finance company Freddie Mac (FRE) will no longer buy subprime mortgages that have a "high likelihood" of payment shock and foreclosure, a surprise move that came amid a deteriorating market for subprime loans affected by slumping home prices and rising interest rates, the company announced Tuesday.
The median price of an existing home sold in January dropped to $210,600, a decline of 3.1% from a year ago. It marked the sixth straight month that the median price has been down compared with a year ago. The January decline was the third-biggest drop in history.
The end of subprime lending is at hand, coupled with the third biggest drop in home prices for the Month of January in HISTORY.
Since "subprime" (under a 660 FICO I think) has been the market, the driving component that has pushed home values past reality over the past 10 years. And considering 70% or so of potential home buyers fall into the subprime category, this move effectively locks them out of the market. Add the increasing mortgage default rates rose 67% and bankruptcies rose 9.6% during Q4 2006. (BTW, BK's are pretty much irrelevant nowadays due to the BK laws being rewritten by the "BigLending" cartels)
In a Filing footnote, I find: Freddie Mac renegotiates the terms of the loan with someone who is delinquent, then, voila, that person is no longer delinquent. It seems to me that since about June of 2006, Freddie Mac is struggling to keep this Ponzi scheme afloat...at least until today. So we may see foreclosures quadruple month over month by years end.
It is pretty clear we are looking at a 40% value drop in home value over the next 2-4 years, IMO. And moreover, as was mentioned yesterday by Alan Greenspan, a major economic recession is headed our way by years end...which may have helped precipitate the massive DOW/S&P 500 sell off today.
What do you think? | |
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tacoma
Bleeding Dodger Blue
Premium
join:2001-05-18
Riverside, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? The down closed down 546.02, 4.3%. 'Massive' sell off would be overstating.
Think globally!
Wall Street succumbed to a global market plunge sparked by growing concerns that the U.S. and Chinese economies are cooling and that equities prices have become overinflated.
The housing market isn't much news, as there were tons of warnings over the past few years that this would happen. | |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by tacoma  :The down closed down 546.02, 4.3%. 'Massive' sell off would be overstating. I don't think I am overstating (perhaps sensationalizing), as it relates to real estate.
Isn't it historically true when stocks go down, interest rates go up. If this is a trend over the next 2 quarters, we will see adjustable rates rise. If that happens, those subprime folks who are already hanging on by a thread will have their rates automatically trigger up to the max allowed.
All those trillions of dollars of "re-adjustments" is what everyone has been cautious of. If there is a flood of foreclosures, then values will sink.
said by 81399672 :said by HappyBunny :I am just biding my time and then will buy my first home... Never going see 40% drop, prices are actually going up very slowly but are going up. While prices may have dropped around the country that's not the case here in socal If you think you going to see a house in 400k range any time soon in a good location then you will be waiting for long time Ylen, you have simply not been here long enough to remember the last time people said: "SoCal real estate will never go down!" Some areas ... those "good" areas went down over 40%. This was just 16 short years ago.
Frankly, the environment seems exponentially worse to me now. | |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
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Murrieta, CA
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1 edit | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by dogma : Ylen, you have simply not been here long enough to remember the last time people said: "SoCal real estate will never go down!" Some areas ... those "good" areas went down over 40%. This was just 16 short years ago. Frankly, the environment seems exponentially worse to me now. Truth. People couldn't give homes away 15 years ago...
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81399672
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Los Angeles, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by aztecnology :said by dogma : Ylen, you have simply not been here long enough to remember the last time people said: "SoCal real estate will never go down!" Some areas ... those "good" areas went down over 40%. This was just 16 short years ago. Frankly, the environment seems exponentially worse to me now. Truth. People couldn't give homes away 15 years ago... population has increase since then. We are no longer in 1989, 1993. February housing report should give good indication of housing market
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aztecnology
O Rly?
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Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by 81399672 :said by aztecnology :said by dogma : Ylen, you have simply not been here long enough to remember the last time people said: "SoCal real estate will never go down!" Some areas ... those "good" areas went down over 40%. This was just 16 short years ago. Frankly, the environment seems exponentially worse to me now. Truth. People couldn't give homes away 15 years ago... population has increase since then. We are no longer in 1989, 1993. February housing report should give good indication of housing market It's worse this time, much worse. People can only live off of MEW for so long. Incomes do not support housing prices.
Loose lending + Fraud + Speculation + any wild variable = Recipe for disaster...
I'll use the OC as an example:
The median income for a household in the county was $61,899
»en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Cou···lifornia
The current median house price $605,000
»blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/
Lending use to require a down payment, use to require mortgage obligations to be no more than 28%-36% of income, use to require house affordability at 3-4 times annual income...
$62,000 x 4 = $250,000
$62,000 /12 = $5,166
$600,000 @ 5% for 30 years = $3,220 with generous terms
$480,000 @ 5% for 30 years = $2,576 with a 20% downpayment
$3,220 / $5,166 = 62%
$2,576 / $5,166 = 50%
This doesn't even factor in property taxes and other credit obligations
The #'s speak for themselves...
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81399672
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join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Like i said lets wait for february #'s to come out. All of those that are hopping that prices will drop and you can get in to the market can dream but you will most likely will have to dream for long time before it happens
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aztecnology
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Murrieta, CA
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| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? The day Los Angeles's bubble burst - By Mr. Ben Stein, a must read.
It happened in the 80's, it happened again in the 90's, and it's happening again in the 2000's...
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jamez818
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Sunland, CA | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? I read the article and its sounds exaggerated. Its too pro new york. one thing is right though everyone wants to move to LA.
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aztecnology
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Murrieta, CA
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| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by jamez818 :I read the article and its sounds exaggerated. Its too pro new york. one thing is right though everyone wants to move to LA. That article is from 1984. It serves to illustrate the point that people are stupid, and that history repeats itself...
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dogma
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Boulder City, NV
1 edit | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? If you want to read a horror story:
»www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article307.html
US Recession in 2007 - Third Leg of the Bear Market Likely
"As our clients know, we have been forecasting a very hard recession over the next few years. At the beginning of 2006, our analysis was viewed with skepticism, but as more data comes in from the recent performance of the economy, our forecast is becoming more probable."
(edit): ...This just came across;
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- When a certain $126,000 subprime loan on a $696,000 house on the West Coast failed to produce a single mortgage payment, alarm bells went off at Clayton Holdings, a company that monitors credit risk.
Closer scrutiny revealed other red flags. The borrower's previous rent payment had been $1,000, compared to the $4,482 she was supposed to be shelling out for both the primary loan and the $126,000 piggyback. And her stated income was $84,000 even though she was an hourly worker at Target.
»money.cnn.com/2007/02/28/magazin···?cnn=yes | |
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aztecnology
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Murrieta, CA
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| said by 81399672 :Like i said lets wait for february #'s to come out. New-home sales plunge 16.6% to 937,000
Commerce Department reports biggest percentage drop in 13 years.
»www.marketwatch.com/news/story/n···BD8C9%7D
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jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by aztecnology :said by 81399672 :Like i said lets wait for february #'s to come out. New-home sales plunge 16.6% to 937,000 Commerce Department reports biggest percentage drop in 13 years. » www.marketwatch.com/news/story/n···BD8C9%7D this particular article is doing it's best to incite fear... look at the vertical scale of the graph, it doesn't go to zero, but makes it look like sales have dropped off a cliff. if anything, they should have measured the drop against a running average, not a recent peak.
i'm not saying we aren't heading for a correction, but this article sucks.
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aztecnology
O Rly?
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Murrieta, CA
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| Re: Home Values going down the toliet?
Draw your own conclusions.... |
said by jig :said by aztecnology :said by 81399672 :Like i said lets wait for february #'s to come out. New-home sales plunge 16.6% to 937,000 Commerce Department reports biggest percentage drop in 13 years. » www.marketwatch.com/news/story/n···BD8C9%7D this particular article is doing it's best to incite fear... O rly...?
look at the vertical scale of the graph, it doesn't go to zero, but makes it look like sales have dropped off a cliff.
That's housing over the last year, and the chart is in millions...
if anything, they should have measured the drop against a running average, not a recent peak. When you do that it actually looks a lot worse...
i'm not saying we aren't heading for a correction, but this article sucks.
Not thinking about it or not talking about it will prevent reversion to the mean...
This article gets it's data from the commerce department, feel free to dismiss the bias, and provide us with a more balanced view of the data - »www.census.gov/const/www/newress···dex.html
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jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Ok, here is the chart as it should be. The black bars are the average of the data as given. Notice that the dip in January is about 10% off the average, while the peak is about 8% above the average.
And these are just sales, AND they left off one of the most important pieces of data, the past December-January data. How many homes do you think normally switch hands around Christmas?. My bet is that seasonally, it's USUALLY the lowest sales time of the year, if for nothing else than the banks/sales staff are all on vacation.
The article is worse than useless, it's misleading.
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coxta
Ultramundane
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LALALALALALA
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1 edit | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? You could loess all the data for the last ten years and it would look like a smooth line. I don't have a problem with the data presentation, it's a way to give an idea of the relative change, not the absolute. The issue, is how it's interpreted.
I work around the real estate business, and the prevailing observation is that home prices are steady to increasing, but sales are fewer. Also, keep in mind that presented data is lagging by about six months.
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Valkyre
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Valhalla
clubs:
| Counter that, with this: (Italics added by me)
»www.dailybreeze.com/news/article···656.html
Consumer confidence rides up to a 5-year high
quote:
New, 9 a.m.: Research group sees economic growth continuing; hopes are up that the housing market is climbing out of severe slump.
By The Associated Press
NEW YORK - Consumer confidence rose to its highest level in five-and-a-half years amid optimism that the nation's economy is creating enough jobs, a private research group said today.
The New York-based Conference Board said that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 112.5, up from a revised 110.2 in January. Analysts had expected the reading to be 109.
The February index was the highest since August 2001, when the reading was 114, indicating that consumers will continue to fuel the nation's economic growth in the near future.
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81399672
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Los Angeles, CA | Never going see 40% drop, prices are actually going up very slowly but are going up. While prices may have dropped around the country that's not the case here in socal
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HappyBunny
Hi. Cram It.
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join:2001-06-23
Long Beach, CA | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? I am just biding my time and then will buy my first home... | |
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81399672
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Los Angeles, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by HappyBunny :I am just biding my time and then will buy my first home... If you think you going to see a house in 400k range any time soon in a good location then you will be waiting for long time
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nightdesigns
Gone missing, back soon
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AZ
 ·Cox HSI
| said by HappyBunny :I am just biding my time and then will buy my first home... Ditto, I'm watching the prices, it's almost time. Condo prices are finally going down to correct pricing. Seen drops of $50k on a $450k home, talk about inflation.
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81399672
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join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by nightdesigns :said by HappyBunny :I am just biding my time and then will buy my first home... Ditto, I'm watching the prices, it's almost time. Condo prices are finally going down to correct pricing. Seen drops of $50k on a $450k home, talk about inflation. not sure what area you seen a house that cost 450k but in san fernando valley you not going to find a house for 450k in a good neighborhood
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dogma
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Boulder City, NV
2 edits | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? www.realtor.com shows 163 properties currently listed in North Hollywood between $550K and $450K. These include both Condos and SFR's.
There are 50 Condos and SFR's listed in Woodland Hills, Canoga Park, and Calabasas today under $550K.
I choose $550K as an up-limit because these are all asking prices in a buyers market. I would bet 5 of these sell for 10% less than asking...if they sell at all this year.
ziprealty.com list 223 homes for sale in Burbank (at any price) as of 2/28/07. 3 years ago, 2/28/04 there were 34 homes for sale in Burbank. This simply illustrates supply/demand, which you and I have agreed is a law.
Ylen, I know Calabasas is a gang-infested, high-crime area with a shitty school system that you may not label as "good"  , but there are homes one can buy today at $450K. | |
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81399672
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join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? yes you can buy a condo for 550k, i can even buy one that is new but then i also know 3kqft that recently sold for 1+ mil (about 20 of the houses) so it all depends what you looking for. I usually look at houses with sqft around 2k+
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AR
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Toronto, ON
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| said by HappyBunny :I am just biding my time and then will buy my first home... Followed my way in here from the Pub...
Is that a good thing? Waiting for the crash? Because I imagine a RE crash will translate into recession and hit the job sector - across different industries.
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No_Strings
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| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Most people wouldn't consider a real estate "crash" - however that's defined - as a good thing. Neither is it good to have a hyper-inflated market driven by speculation that prices out folks who would otherwise be responsible homeowners. And yes, a drop in housing has ripple effects in other parts of the economy.
It will be what it will be, Smart folks will find opportunity in markets - boom or bust. Conservative folks will weather rough spots. Dumbasses will get burned. | |
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AR
Premium,ExMod 2001-04
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Toronto, ON
·Rogers Hi-Speed
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by No_Strings : Dumbasses will get burned. Question then is, how many of them are there?
Is anyone who took out some of that $1.2Trillion adjustable mortgage classified as a dumbass? The answer to this question will decide what happens to the overall economy.
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No_Strings
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| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Some are. Maybe a high percentage of them.
Not all will default. Some who bought on speculation will earn enough on other investments to offset.
I'm not smart enough to predict whether we will have a minor correction, a sharp drop or something in-between. Even if real estate gets hit "hard" in CA, that doesn't mean calamity across the continent. The Fed could step in and loosen the money rate. Other aspects of the economy could mitigate or lessen the impact.
All I know is that folks who ignored history, experts and common sense, who threw caution to the wind and bought way over their head (you know, dumbasses) are likely to be adjusting their lifestyles significantly. | |
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FutureMon
OW My Eyes
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Colorado Springs, CO
clubs:
1 edit | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Well my latest appraisal came in. From a bank who I was warned takes a very conservative approach in their estimations (wachovia).
They **must** be smoking something because their appraisal came in under $550k - and I can't believe the value of my home would drop over $100k in only 5 months. I got another appraisal from real time mls data that came in at $647k, and www.zillow.com puts me around $651k right now.
I guess they are worried about the market so they're making it very difficult for customers to qualify for their loans.
- FM
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jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? believe the 550. the prices of house sales in our neighborhood (sales, not offers) has fluctuated that much in 5 months. zillow is usually 6 months behind...
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CurtesyFlush
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Fontana, CA | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Zillow was way off on this one.
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dogma
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join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| said by FutureMon :...$647k, and www.zillow.com puts me around $651k right now. I guess they are worried about the market so they're making it very difficult for customers to qualify for their loans. Try »www.reply.com/
My house on Zillow shows $711K, Reply shows $951K. I think these sites are for amusement purposes only. (Although Reply did show a neighbors house at $668K last fall. The neighbor put their house on the market in June '06 at $815K, it finally sold and closed last Month at $680K)
You may want to buy your own appraisal, which I would suggest as a good investment anyway before going loan shopping.
Does anyone else see such a big discrepancy between Reply & Zillow? | |
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FutureMon
OW My Eyes
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Colorado Springs, CO
clubs: | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? reply.com came in at $599k
- FM | |
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81399672
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Los Angeles, CA | reply is totally wrong, no question about it. Prices do not make any sense
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FutureMon
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1 edit | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by ksw_92 :In the end, the value of your home is determined by what someone (loan officer or cash buyer) will give you for it. Anything else is just a guess based on point-in-time data. As a potential seller, that's what I like to hear. Because my property is unique enough that the right buyer who appreciates the qualities it has (I believe) would pay a premium to get. Lot offers privacy, nice view of valley, neighbors homes are about 100 feet away on both sides (below me) and no one behind me. Definately not your typical "cookie cutter" property.
For Refinancing, though, that kinda sucks.
- FM
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aztecnology
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Murrieta, CA
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1 edit | said by dogma : said by USA TODAY :
WASHINGTON (AP) — Mortgage finance company Freddie Mac (FRE) will no longer buy subprime mortgages that have a "high likelihood" of payment shock and foreclosure, a surprise move that came amid a deteriorating market for subprime loans affected by slumping home prices and rising interest rates, the company announced Tuesday.
The median price of an existing home sold in January dropped to $210,600, a decline of 3.1% from a year ago. It marked the sixth straight month that the median price has been down compared with a year ago. The January decline was the third-biggest drop in history.
The end of subprime lending is at hand, coupled with the third biggest drop in home prices for the Month of January in HISTORY. Since "subprime" (under a 660 FICO I think) has been the market, the driving component that has pushed home values past reality over the past 10 years. And considering 70% or so of potential home buyers fall into the subprime category, this move effectively locks them out of the market. Add the increasing mortgage default rates rose 67% and bankruptcies rose 9.6% during Q4 2006. (BTW, BK's are pretty much irrelevant nowadays due to the BK laws being rewritten by the "BigLending" cartels) In a Filing footnote, I find: Freddie Mac renegotiates the terms of the loan with someone who is delinquent, then, voila, that person is no longer delinquent. It seems to me that since about June of 2006, Freddie Mac is struggling to keep this Ponzi scheme afloat...at least until today. So we may see foreclosures quadruple month over month by years end. It is pretty clear we are looking at a 40% value drop in home value over the next 2-4 years, IMO. And moreover, as was mentioned yesterday by Alan Greenspan, a major economic recession is headed our way by years end...which may have helped precipitate the massive DOW/S&P 500 sell off today. What do you think? 2007, the year of the reckoning...
We've got 1 foot in the recession bucket
The market dropped 400+ points today
NOD's are up
Foreclosure's are up
Property tax lates are up
Prices are coming down (Don't be fooled by the MEDIAN price)
Subprime mortgage lenders are imploding and going bankrupt
Freddie and Fannie will lead the way in the credit crunch
The fed is in a catch 22, battling recession/printing money they probably can't do anything meaningful with interest rates
Lenders came up with a grey area called Alt-A (620-680) which now sits between prime and subprime, and for the most part subprime is considered as anything below 620
Bubbles eventually correct to their historical trend line, always, and tend to over correct at that
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81399672
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join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Yes 400 lost but it may not mean much actually. Most you going to see is 10% correction. I understand you want prices to go down but chances of that happening right now are that high. This month buying/selling will show us the picture which i predict will be that sale of houses have slowdown but prices is still going up
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No_Strings
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| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Um, here's how this whole tax thing works:
If you earn money, you owe some of it to some entity in the form of tax. Regardless of the rate, regardless of how much contempt you hold for the taxing agency, you still have more money than you did before. I'm happy to reduce the amount of tax I pay, but not if it means less income. | |
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join:2005-08-18
Northridge, CA
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by No_Strings :Um, here's how this whole tax thing works: If you earn money... You lost me there. Earn? Money?
Please do not mention the dreaded word ending in 'K.' | |
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No_Strings
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1 edit | I listened to part of Fed Chairman Bernanke's remarks this morning and took away a couple of things, paraphrased liberally:
The sub-prime lending market, while important, is not broken or headed for a train wreck. It is worth watching.
Housing is not a catastrophe by any stretch.
The overall economy is not headed for recession. In fact, modest growth is expected and any inprovement in housing would mean strong growth.
We need to fix what is a looming train wreck in the form of social entitlements before they wreck the economy. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid could sink the ship and the longer we wait to start bailing, the more likely we will find there aren't enough life rafts.
Modest recovery in the US stock markets this morning as a result of his comments (after I sold some stuff - d'oh!).
edit: I realize his remarks apply to the US economy and your post relates more to So Cal, but it's all relevant. | |
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No_Strings
Premium,Mod
join:2001-11-22
The OC | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? I simply noted his comments without commentary. I miss Al, too. | |
| LeCurNon
join:2007-01-31
Escondido, CA
| Congress has pushed labor costs up and thereby caused and is causing the exodus of jobs. New houses and condos are currently priced outside the affordability of the average job.
Therefore, housing prices will drop until they reach a level affordable by the buyer. | |
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HappyBunny
Hi. Cram It.
Premium
join:2001-06-23
Long Beach, CA
·Charter Pipeline
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? The biggest factor, IMO, is that the "flippers" and investors have left this market. These were the folks who were really pushing up the prices. They were making insane profits by doing so. And downtown Long Beach has three or four new condo towers going up, and prices *start* in the $600,000s. These projects were started when the market was hot but it sure isn't now--and I bet those prices come down when the condos sit there empty.
The hidden benefit might be that fewer condo projects will be built--and fewer architectural treasures will destroyed to build them. All over LA, cool buildings have been disappearing at a frightening rate, to make room for new condo projects. | |
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jinjimbob
Troy Mcclure
join:2001-11-13 | If you look at the value of houses over the last 30 years, on average they have gone up around 3% per year. | |
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coxta
Ultramundane
Premium
join:2000-07-15
LALALALALALA | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? On average, about 3%, but real estate has a cycle, just like the business cycle, and so oscillation in prices is quite normal.
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cum hoc ergo propter hoc | |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| You are correct. I consider this an "investment window". You have pointed out a 30-year investment window. Same with stocks, over very long periods of time, the DOW/S&P 500/Etc. values appreciate.
But what happens when ones "window" is dynamic? An example is I bought a house in 1989 for $265K. 5 years later, in 1993 it was worth $195K. About a 25% decrease in value. Last year, it was worth $650K. A 120% increase over 17 years.
Problem, when it was at it's low, I could not afford it. The adjustable rate I got (this after a real 15% down payment) kept adjusting up. The economy slowed, business slowed, and I had to walk away from it. (A sugar-coated way to say they kicked my ass out of it).
I did not have the resources to survive through the downside of my "investment window". Part of the question is how will this pending down cycle affect people? For those that bought in the past 4 years or so, with much more "exotic" financing, how will they fare? How will this affect the overall economy that frankly has been artificially propped up over the past 7 years with loose-credit. Refinancing & pulling cash out of over valued real estate has fueled most of the consumer spending during this time.
When this free-lunch dries up, what will happen? | |
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See 14 replies to this post | |
jinjimbob
Troy Mcclure
join:2001-11-13
| The population is growing at a huge rate, people are being born and moving here in droves.
The demand is still there. A 3% decline in the national average house price means nothing, especially when most people can't even dream of buying a $200k house, they don't exist in populated areas.
I know people here want the prices to drop 40% so that they can afford one, but this won't happen, sorry. | |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by jinjimbob :The population is growing at a huge rate, people are being born and moving here in droves. The demand is still there. A 3% decline in the national average house price means nothing, especially when most people can't even dream of buying a $200k house, they don't exist in populated areas. I know people here want the prices to drop 40% so that they can afford one, but this won't happen, sorry. A. What % of this "massive" population growth is domestic and earning mid-six figures?
B. The demand and the "resources" are two different things. The market is forcing a change in the "resources", thereby cutting the "demand" off at the knees.
C. 40% drop in home prices impossible? Keep listening to the "Real Estate Experts". History is not on your side. | |
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jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA
| it'll be a great market if you have cash lying around and some reasonable buying skills. a perfect time to time the market, kinda like stocks in the mid 90s.
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A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin | |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
1 edit | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Ya got that right...speaking of a perfect time:
I got back from lunch to see the market down 247 points.
said by Holy Sheep Shit Batman :
Accredited (Nasdaq:LEND - news), based in San Diego, said it needed to raise money after paying $190 million demanded by its lenders, is cutting an unspecified number of jobs, and is exploring "strategic options," including raising new capital.
Irvine, California-based New Century (Other OTC:NEWC - news), meanwhile, had trading in its shares suspended by the
New York Stock Exchange prior to delisting and received a grand jury subpoena in a federal criminal probe. On Monday, the real estate investment trust had said it did not have enough cash to repay its own lenders.
Edit: Looks like this is taking down GMAC as well:
DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Acceptance Corp., the former finance arm of General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news), on Tuesday said it would receive another $1 billion from GM and warned it would be hit by pressure from a weakening market for U.S. mortgages.
GMAC said GM would transfer about $1 billion to the finance company in the form of common equity by the end of the first quarter to shore up its balance sheet under the terms of its sale to a group led by Cerberus Capital Management.
Feldstein said GMAC was tightening its underwriting standards for mortgages to borrowers with weaker credit and taking more aggressive steps to address delinquent loans.
Problems in the subprime mortgage sector, which involves loans to riskier borrowers, have emerged as a major risk factor for the U.S. financial markets in recent weeks.
Looks like the subprime meltdown is going faster than even I (or aztecnology) predicted. Alt-A is next, then A-Paper backed securities. Credit will be tighter than a (insert flagrantly hostile sexist remark here). When credit tightens up, almost no one will be qualified to borrow at competitive rates. If nobody can borrow, nobody can buy. If nobody can buy, I may just restate my prediction of a 40% drop in home values to...perhaps 60%?
A lot of people will be left holding the bag like Randolph & Mortimer Duke at the end of the movie Trading Places. This upcoming recession may be a mother. | |
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81399672
Premium
join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA | Re: Home Values going down the toliet?  you're just praying that prices go down so you can buy a house. You do realize that 247 is not a big number at al
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i am not a lawyer but I do play one on tv | |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? said by 81399672 : you're just praying that prices go down so you can buy a house. You do realize that 247 is not a big number at al Sorry, wrong answer. I bought my house back in 1994 (at the bottom of the last RE fiasco). Only refi'd to cut the interest rate and term. 6.5 more years of mortgage payments for me. On this one.
You are correct, -247 isn't big by itself. Last Months -500 drop wasn't big by itself either. Look closely at the volume during the last hour of trading today. Lets see waht happens over the next 3 Months.
I don't need to pray for prices to go down. Just need to wait.  | |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| The latest housing #'s came out today
New Homes Sales Fall 3.9% In February, Far Below Estimates
"Sales of new U.S. homes fell 3.9% in February to the lowest rate in nearly seven years while the number of new homes on the market grew, according to a government report on Monday that showed more signs of weakness in the housing sector".
U.S. Dollar Tumbles On Disappointing Housing Data
"Sales of new homes unexpectedly tumbled 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 848,000, the lowest since June 2000, the Commerce Department said. Economists had expected a 6.7% increase. Inventories of unsold homes rose 1.5% to 546,000, representing an 8.1-month supply, the largest in 16 years. Inventory is up 26.6% in the past 12 months".
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax | |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Home foreclosures in California increase 80% over last year.
More than 16,000 California homeowners were foreclosed on in February, a 79- percent increase over the same period last year, said a report on Monday.
This was the second highest level after Florida in the nation, according to the report released by RealtyTrac.com, which monitors foreclosure activity.
California's total of 16,273 foreclosure filings during the month represented a 4-percent increase over January 2007. The state's February foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 751 households was 1.2 times the national average and ranked 13th highest among the states. | |
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Kibbles
Premium
join:1999-07-31
Mission Viejo, CA
| In my area the amount of Foreclosures is still the same...about 30-80 a month...but what I am seeing an increase in is the amount that is owed to the bank...some homes have a appraised value of 800k....but the mortgage balance is over 700k.
So in time,my guess in 10 years or less,there will be another wave of foreclosures.  | |
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| Bumpity, bumpity, bump
Had to, just read an article and it absolutely infuriated me. Apparently there is (already) talk of a "bail out" of the RE crisis. At the borrower level. If one gets a home loan they know they can't afford, no worries. The rest of us will pitch in and make sure this person's 56" Plasma remains on their living room wall.
said by selected snippets from: »news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070411/ap_···ing_woes :
The call for federal involvement from New York Democrat Charles Schumer, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, came on the same day the National Association of Realtors forecast that the median price for existing homes will decline for the first time since 1968 as a sales slump worsens.
"We will be proposing significant amounts of dollars," Schumer told reporters after being asked if a large federal bailout may be needed.
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"We've heard one heartbreaking story after another of borrowers with limited incomes being sold mortgages they could not afford," Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said at a briefing on Capitol Hill.
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Activist and community groups are stepping up efforts to aid homeowners affected by the housing market's woes. They argue that banks and mortgage brokers_not borrowers_bear most of the blame for the industry's problems.
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Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn, said he would call for a summit on Capitol Hill soon "to try to work out a process for providing relief to homeowners."
So, buy anything with borrowed money, no risk.
Before someone says, "See, it's theem dern tax 'n spend democrats"... It is important to note here this "bailout" is not for the prick-consumer. The prick-consumer-bot will always be in perpetual debt. This is part of a Corporate & Chinese controlled U.S. government (both Repubs and Dems are owned), whose core methodology revolves around this concept:
“Privatize the profits and socialize the losses”
'Nuff said. | |
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81399672
Premium
join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA
1 edit | Re: Home Values going down the toliet? I am on my way now to buy 2 mores houses, i love the federal government 
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i am not a lawyer but I do play one on tv | |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| Yeah, i've been reading the commentary on Dodd and Schumer, and I don't know if this is going to have enough teeth to get anywhere or enough money to have a meaningful impact. The government shouldn't interfere with natural market forces that NEED to take place, just like every other RE cycle that happens every decade...
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax | |
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See 6 replies to this post | |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
1 edit | Re: Home Values going down the toliet?
It's not getting better |
In my zip code, foreclosure.com lists 462 homes in a state of foreclosure.
We had a small fire in the Murrieta Creek this past week, and we were driving around a bit to get a look, and meandered through a few neighborhoods and found a cul-de-sac with about a dozen homes with about 8 or so for sale, bank owned, or with the foreclosure/auction notice posted. I looked up the docs on them, and the banks are selling them for $50k-$75k less than were sold from the builder 18 months ago...
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax | |
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Valkyre
Premium,ExMod 2002
join:2000-12-25
Valhalla
clubs:
1 edit |
Yahoo is showing 125 foreclosures in Gardena. I don't know how this compares to other years, I've never checked.
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Certainty of death. Small chance of success. What are we waiting for? - Gimli | |
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See 16 replies to this post | |
aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| The latest #'s just came out...
Existing home sales data for March showed a drop of 8.4% to 6.12 million units, the largest drop since January 1989.
»www.cnbc.com/id/18279050
The median home price slipped 0.3 percent to $217,000 from a year earlier. That marked the eighth straight month that key price comparison has shown a decline. Earlier this month the trade group projected that 2007 would be the first year to show a decline it(sic) nearly 40 years that it has tracked prices.
»money.cnn.com/2007/04/24/news/ec···07042410
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax | |
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