rahvin112
join:2002-05-24
Sandy, UT
| reply to mglunt
Re: High turnover rate
Statistics are great aren't they? My favorite saying is: There are liars, damned liars and statisticians.
For instance, lets take a look at your first claim.
said by mglunt  :Since 1997, the avg hourly earnings dropped in only 2 of the 118 months. What's significant about this claim is what is said and not said. The first, issue is that hourly earnings actually dropped during 2 months. This is the first decline in hourly income since the great depression. Significant? I would say so. Second, what they don't say is that hourly wages haven't increased since 1997. The key to making bad information seem good is to talk about something else and try to spin it positive, like your statement. The fact is hourly wages have been stagnant for a close to a decade and dropped during two months for the first time since the great depression.
said by mglunt :Unemployment is just 4.7%, and has not been at 5.0 since Nov 05. Yep, unemployment is low, no question about that. Unemployment isn't much of an indicator until it's too late though. Although what you don't say is that unemployment has creeped upward the last few months, something that could indicate a trend.
said by mglunt :The economy has added jobs every month since Sept 03 - a total of 8.6 Million. What that doesn't say is that the number of jobs added was well below historical averages and expectations. Couple this with the vast majority (80%) of those jobs being below poverty level wages and in the service sector. So you got your 8.6million jobs and 8 million of them were at fast food joints for less than $10 a hour. Hardly anything to cheer about.
But the main point of the original poster is that the decline in the dollar is a serious threat to our economy if it continues. The dollar has historically been used as a reserve currency. What that means is that people put their money into dollars for stability. Being a reserve currency benefits the USA because all those foreign funds come into our economy and are used by American companies to create jobs, fund growth and even create new companies. If foreigners move their reserves into for example the Euro it would damage the American economy immensely. Not only that but pulling their money out of dollars would drop the dollar even more, which in turn will cause more people to bail. A spiral that eventually results in the collapse of the dollar as a world currency and the inability of the USA to sell bonds resulting in a near shutdown of government because we deficit spend. Not only that but we would be unable to purchase foreign products, and with our own manufacturing sector gone and no funds to restart it we would probably be looking at something similar to the great depression.
Is all that going to happen, probably not, for if the American economy goes down so does the world. But the sub-prime fiasco that the market is dealing with right now is only exacerbating the problem that Bush and the republicans created with their tax cut and spend policies. If things don't change significantly with the next president the above scenario may come to pass. I know a number of people that have moved their personal financial assets to foreign countries/currencies, and I've personally moved a percentage of my own. |
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Ahrenl
join:2004-10-26
North Andover, MA
 ·Verizon FIOS
| The subprime "fiasco" has nothing to do with the government, except maybe when the fed cut rates too low which spurred "irrational excuberance" in the housing market casuing speculation and excessive risk taking. Since that was done by Greenspan, who was appointed by Reagan, maybe you should blame him instead.
As for the dollar losing its reserve status, it's not even possible right now. There just aren't enough assets/debt outside of the US for the money to go to. |
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mglunt
join:2001-09-10
Fredericksburg, VA
·Verizon FIOS
| reply to rahvin112
You say that "hourly wages haven't increased since 1997." I am sure you meant min wage, but you seem to be talking about both. If you know someone who began working a min wage job in 1997, and is still working the same job, and still making min wage, I'd like to see that. People might start out at min wage, but they get raises, etc.
Hourly income dropped 2 times in 2003 by a whole .01%. I don't call that significant up against the 116 times it has gone up in 10 yrs. »data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyO···net_1mth
Since 1970, the unemployment rate for the year has been lower than 4.7 a whole 4 times. Forgive me if I don't push the panic button since the rate went from 4.6 in Jul/Aug to 4.7 in Sept/Oct. It might simply indicate an increase in people looking for jobs for the holidays etc. |
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mglunt
join:2001-09-10
Fredericksburg, VA | reply to rahvin112
Where might you have proof of your statement that 80% of the new jobs added since Sept 03 are below the poverty line? |
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smokythebear
join:2004-07-13
30881
clubs:
| reply to rahvin112
Obviously I hope this situation does not happen, but it worries me alot. One thing that you didn't mention about the spending policy of the bush administration is that China is the majority buyer of US bonds. This should bother everyone...
Also with the whole social security problem and the possibility of crowding out things need to change |
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