Dogfather
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2 edits | Zero justification for it
And when the ISPs crying about capacity are forced to turn over their data, like Bell Canada, turns out they're lying out their ass.
U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others.
--
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and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger." -Hermann Goering 4/18/46 |
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Nightfall
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| said by Dogfather  :And when the ISPs crying about capacity are forced to turn over their data, like Bell Canada, turns out they're lying out their ass. U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others. Link? Source?
I haven't seen a single bit of data from ISPs showing their capacity at the node or national level and what they have available. Would be helpful to see that data since you apparently have seen it. |
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Dogfather
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4 edits | »Bell Canada Offers 'Proof' Throttling Was Necessary
Dave Burstein also has some interesting comments regarding Verizon and AT&T. While AT&T is claiming a need for caps, behind the scenes AT&T says they have no capacity crunch as traffic shifts from P2P to video. »www.interesting-people.org/archi···265.html said by Dave Burstein :
Verizon, AT&T, and Free.fr are strongly on the record they do not have significant congestion problems.
said by Dave Burstein :
AT&T has sensible plans to handle the load without disruption. They are already moving from 10 gig to 40 gig in the core, and planning a transition to 100 gig in a few years. The current projections are they can do these upgrades without raising capex, bringing per bit costs down along a Moore's Law curve and keeping bandwidth costs per user essentially unchanged. Most of the optical vendors believe they can meet those goals, although some worry that the pace of innovation may slow down as the optical components industry is struggling.
That's quite different from AT&Ts call for metered billing this Fall. I'm not that familiar with Dave Burstein but he appears to be well accepted in the 'community'. He also comments on Bell Canada as well. |
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nightdesigns
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| reply to Dogfather
It's a pure money grab by the ISP's.
I'm not even a P2P User, but running a Slingbox, Having Tivos that pull from amazon downloads, Watching You-Tube, Purchasing from I-Tunes, Music Streams and such, watching olympics online, Vonage, Off-Site File Backup, a VPN connection into my parent's business, and I'm just about to get the Netflix Roku box I'm probably going to be over my limit. Not including the Roku box, I was at 100GB downloaded last month.
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Matt
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| reply to Nightfall
said by Nightfall :said by Dogfather :And when the ISPs crying about capacity are forced to turn over their data, like Bell Canada, turns out they're lying out their ass. U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others. Link? Source? I haven't seen a single bit of data from ISPs showing their capacity at the node or national level and what they have available. Would be helpful to see that data since you apparently have seen it. What he is referring to is the congestion that Bell Canada claimed left them no other choice but to enable throttling.
When they posted the numbers, they were simply laughable. |
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EPS
join:2008-02-13
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| reply to Dogfather
Considering the degree to which DOCSIS 1.1 networks are oversubscribed, I can believe that cable companies have some congestion issues, but those should be alleviated by DOCSIS 3 at least in part. However, the telcos involved (Bell Canada, at&t) are almost certainly just trying to make a few more bucks by jumping on the bandwagon, and ranting about inevitability in hopes that eventually enough people will believe them. |
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Dogfather
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4 edits | Absolutely. I do agree that in some limited cable systems there are saturated channels in some neighborhoods, especially in the upstream but looking at AT&T's data, BT usage is down and that will relieve pressure on upstream channel capacity. That combined with SDV and ditching analog (allowing more channels to be dedicated to HSI), along with DOCSIS 3 to provide the desired increase in throughput to the end user, these localized problems can be fixed. This issue of channel saturation certainly doesn't warrant a blanket nationwide capping policy of 5GB like TWC has suggested with 1000% markups on overages and/or FAPping like Comcast is planning. And it certainly doesn't apply to AT&T who has no such localized problems. |
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en102
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| reply to Nightfall
Is there a reason WHY they are attempting to sell higher data rates than they can support ?
Eg. If they can only support 6Mbps, why attempt to sell 20Mbps and put a cap on it ?
If its raw usage (i.e. 24x7x20Mbps) then there's a general usage issue.
If the average user on a 6Mbps line consumes 500GB of data / month, there should be no issue.
Similarly, I'd like to see the capacity issues (legit data here) where there's a capacity issue.
I've been on 3Mbps DSL for almost 5 years, and probably transfer over 200GB/month, and I haven't heard any complaints from DSL-Extreme.
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TKJunkMail
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| said by en102 :Is there a reason WHY they are attempting to sell higher data rates than they can support ?Eg. If they can only support 6Mbps, why attempt to sell 20Mbps and put a cap on it ? Yes. It is called marketing. And it is used to appeal to the average customer who are morons in most cases. Marketing isn't about logic and never has been. It is all about convincing people that they need something they really don't need.
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espaeth
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| reply to EPS
said by EPS :I can believe that cable companies have some congestion issues, but those should be alleviated by DOCSIS 3 at least in part. Eventually DOCSIS 3 might solve this problem, but they need to replace a good percentage of the xx million DOCSIS 1.1/2.0 cable modems out there before seeing significant improvement on the shared plant. |
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en102
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1 edit | reply to TKJunkMail
You know I meant that with a shot of sarcasm.
Consumers are sheep.
Similarly, when it comes to elections and politics, voters are sheep as well, driven more by hype, nitpicking, smear campaigns and PR spin, than real details.
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Dogfather
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Laguna Hills, CA | reply to espaeth
But since not all cable systems are seeing these localized upstream channel saturation they can pick and choose the "worst" case cable systems to upgrade. |
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espaeth
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said by Dogfather :U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others. If you say this enough times, maybe one time it will really be true.
On demand video isn't a saturated market; you can still acquire a vast many new customers without taking the existing customers of other companies. Microsoft isn't stealing VoD customers from Sony, because XBox owners will get video from Microsoft and PS3 owners will get video from Sony. The thing that is hampering most Internet video sources (besides scalability issues) is the fact that you need a special hardware device that locks you in to only content from a single upstream provider. I buy a Roku, I can view Netflix, but not iTunes. I buy AppleTV I can watch shows from iTunes, but not Netflix.
This is about bigger things than video competition. |
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Dogfather
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4 edits | said by espaeth :said by Dogfather :U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others. If you say this enough times, maybe one time it will really be true. On demand video isn't a saturated market; you can still acquire a vast many new customers without taking the existing customers of other companies. Microsoft isn't stealing VoD customers from Sony, because XBox owners will get video from Microsoft and PS3 owners will get video from Sony. The thing that is hampering most Internet video sources (besides scalability issues) is the fact that you need a special hardware device that locks you in to only content from a single upstream provider. I buy a Roku, I can view Netflix, but not iTunes. I buy AppleTV I can watch shows from iTunes, but not Netflix. This is about bigger things than video competition. You obviously don't understand the impact from an MSO perspective. The MSOs don't give a crap if Microsoft is competing with Sony for VOD PPV customers. They DO care that Microsoft is competing with the MSOs.
People don't rent the same PPV VOD program twice and while Microsoft may not get PPV viewers from Sony and Sony may not get PPV viewers from Microsoft, both Sony and Microsoft get their PPV viewers from the MSOs.
The MSOs aren't going to stand by and wait for your "killer do all box" to be released to stop it. They're going to stop it now with caps and traffic shaping. There are already millions and millions of installed set top boxes like TiVo Series 2, XBOX 360 and PS3s (with most offering the same rental content) to make the MSOs concerned. IOW, I don't need a do all box to rent a particular movie title. Any of these providers will offer it. It's like saying that the MSOs would only be threatened by a box that plays VHS and Beta or DVD and Blu-Ray. No, so long as the title is universally available which most new releases are, every installed box competes with their PPV business.
As far as scalability, again you're wrong. Of all services, PPV VOD is one of the few that is infinitely scalable because every xfer funds itself.
--
"Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders...All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked,
and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger." -Hermann Goering 4/18/46 |
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Nightfall
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1 edit | reply to Matt
said by Matt :said by Nightfall :said by Dogfather :And when the ISPs crying about capacity are forced to turn over their data, like Bell Canada, turns out they're lying out their ass. U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others. Link? Source? I haven't seen a single bit of data from ISPs showing their capacity at the node or national level and what they have available. Would be helpful to see that data since you apparently have seen it. What he is referring to is the congestion that Bell Canada claimed left them no other choice but to enable throttling. When they posted the numbers, they were simply laughable. Thanks!
What I would like to see is a breakdown of all the major ISPs done by a 3rd party showing this kind of data. In the end though, the decision to cap is up to the provider. The consumer doesn't have a say in it.
EDIT:
The article you posted had to do with P2P Throttling. While the information is useful, what I would like to see is even a further breakdown from each node. Total amount of nodes saturated really doesn't help much. Ah well. |
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Dogfather
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Laguna Hills, CA | That data would be a closely guarded secret because like Bell Canada, their data won't support their doom and gloom assertions. |
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Nightfall
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| said by Dogfather :That data would be a closely guarded secret because like Bell Canada, their data won't support their doom and gloom assertions. Correct.
Which is why making it public is the best thing to do. The ISPs are going to sneak this in. The majority of the people on this site will be affected by low caps. |
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Dogfather
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Laguna Hills, CA | Short of a Mission: Impossible action, there will be no getting their data. It would take a job-losing leak of industry shattering proportions. |
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espaeth
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If they're so anxious about competition for revenue, then why aren't they going after Internet VoIP competition which strikes at one of their most lucrative services right now?
You're so focused on making the video scenario stick that you're missing the big picture. The broadband providers arrived at a price for their service offering based on an estimated amount of usage. This is the same strategy that All-you-can-eat restaurants use to price the buffet, and insurance companies use to calculate what the cost should be an a $300,000 auto policy. In all cases they have statistical data to show that every person don't max out 100% of the benefit, so they calculate down to realistic expectancies.
There are now applications that would drive up average utilization beyond what the broadband service offering price model was based on. That is the simple answer to why ISPs are reinvestigating their pricing strategy. |
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Dogfather
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1 edit | Internet VoIP control faces 2 hurdles. The first is very simple, the FCC is watching for this like a hawk. Second, cable is crushing indy VOIP with little effort and they're not doing that with video.
As for your broadband price model, you're model requires that the per unit cost of bandwidth doesn't drop which it certainly does, keeping per user bandwidth costs the same as consumption increases.
We've seen from Bell Canada's data, that even with the increase in traffic, there is no capacity crunch and providers like AT&T who in confidence reiterate that they have no capacity crunch expand from 10 gig to 40 gig and eventually to 100 gig while their data services margins increase (according to their annual report).
It's certainly no coincidence that after a decade of providing unmetered service that only after rolling out their own video product (U-Verse) are they moving to caps. |
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