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Forums » Tech and Talk » Current Affairs/Politics » It is the economy, stupid » Stock Market Crashing...down 330 points right now
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The disconnect »
« Who in here will continue to pay taxes after the BAILOUT  
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justin
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reply to RWoods
Re: Stock Market Crashing...down 330 points right now

It isn't reached until the house votes and passes it.

But yeah it looks like this time they got the votes.

I read they are looking for republicans who are retiring, so they can be the ones to vote yes on it (no consequences), and deliver the necessary bi-partisan total.

I think it stinks: a bailout of the high flyers at the 11th hour. Buffet made his investment with the full knowledge the taxpayer was needed to make it worthwhile.. Goldman would be screwed by AIG failing and that can't be allowed to happen..

I've no idea how anyone involved can be unbiased enough to deliver a proper solution, they are up their eyeballs in self-interest.


RWoods
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I'd like it a lot better if the government was buying the MBS at a discount instead of full price. At least then you could make the case that years down the road this might not end up being such a bad idea for taxpayers.


justin
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a discount? a discount to what? currently marked down price or a discount to face value?

they are gonna buy them at an amount sufficient to reflate the banks assets. Since most banks have clearly not written them down as much as the market says they are likely to be worth, this means the government will be buying them at a PREMIUM to the already PREMIUM TO MARKET price they are held at.

Does the package make the MBS worth more than the market says they are worth? well, you have to ask: does this package mean property in SoCal is worth 400k for a very average home all over again? No I don't think so, not unless they the package includes 100% LTV mortgage products @ 6% all over again ..


RWoods
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said by justin See Profile :

a discount? a discount to what? currently marked down price or a discount to face value?

they are gonna buy them at an amount sufficient to reflate the banks assets. Since most banks have clearly not written them down as much as the market says they are likely to be worth, this means the government will be buying them at a PREMIUM to the already PREMIUM TO MARKET price they are held at.
I was referring to a discount to what they are currently listed at on the banks books, since as you said most financial institutions have not written them down enough to reflect what they really are worth.


justin
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1 edit
buying them at anything less than a big premium to their current over-valued state would be useless, because the idea is to re-capitalize the banks (why they can't do this by directly buying preferred shares beats the hell out of me - oh right, because that would dilute shareholders and we can't have that).

If you buy at anything less than a premium to their currently marked value then you make things worse as the banks report larger losses than before and go broke even more quickly.

As I see it this is like that rundown house down the street. In the house a bunch of students are partying hard, and in their yard are several old cars on blocks in various states of disrepair. The students are paying leases on the cars, which they still believe are worth $4000 each (but nobody has replied to their craigslist sales ads), and the few sober among them realize they will soon run out of beer money so they make some hurried phone calls. Along comes Forest Gump the taxpayer, who is told that if the party ends the neighborhood won't be able to buy weed there anymore, so he pays this bunch $8000 for each car, drags them away and puts them in a warehouse where he hopes the cars will one day become "collectible" and perhaps make him back the $8000 per car. The party continues for a while longer..


RWoods
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said by justin See Profile :

buying them at anything less than a big premium to their current over-valued state would be useless, because the idea is to re-capitalize the banks (why they can't do this by directly buying preferred shares beats the hell out of me - oh right, because that would dilute shareholders and we can't have that).

If you buy at anything less than a premium to their currently marked value then you make things worse as the banks report larger losses than before and go broke even more quickly.

Yes, I understand that theory and definitely see the validity of it. I was just saying I would like plan better if they were able to the MBS at market value.


TKJunkMail
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1 edit
reply to justin
Details of the draft compromise are here:
Since not everyone can read the Post web site w/o subscribing, I posted the salient details in this posting.

»www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co···pos=list
these elements will be included in the legislation.

* Protection for taxpayers, ensuring THEY share IN ANY profits

-- Cuts the payment of $700 billion in half and conditions future payments on Congressional review

-- Gives taxpayers an ownership stake and profit-making opportunities with participating companies

-- Puts taxpayers first in line to recover assets if participating company fails

-- Guarantees taxpayers are repaid in full -- if other protections have not actually produced a profit

-- Allows the government to purchase troubled assets from pension plans, local governments, and small banks that serve low- and middle-income families

* Limits on excessive compensation for CEOs and executives

-- New restrictions on CEO and executive compensation for participating companies:

-- No multi-million dollar golden parachutes

-- Limits CEO compensation that encourages unnecessary risk-taking

-- Recovers bonuses paid based on promised gains that later turn out to be false or inaccurate

* Strong independent oversight and transparency

-- Four separate independent oversight entities or processes to protect the taxpayer

-- A strong oversight board appointed by bipartisan leaders of Congress

-- A GAO presence at Treasury to oversee the program and conduct audits to ensure strong internal controls, and to prevent waste, fraud, and abuse

-- An independent Inspector General to monitor the Treasury Secretary's decisions

-- Transparency -- requiring posting of transactions online to help jumpstart private sector demand

-- Meaningful judicial review of the Treasury Secretary's actions

* Help to prevent home foreclosures crippling the American economy

-- The government can use its power as the owner of mortgages and mortgage backed securities to facilitate loan modifications (such as, reduced principal or interest rate, lengthened time to pay back the mortgage) to help reduce the 2 million projected foreclosures in the next year

-- Extends provision (passed earlier in this Congress) to stop tax liability on mortgage foreclosures

-- Helps save small businesses that need credit by aiding small community banks hurt by the mortgage crisis -- allowing these banks to deduct losses from investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks
And a further/later look at this story here:
»www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co···pos=list
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sailor
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1 edit
reply to justin
No shorting list

»www.optionsxpress.com/risks/secu···ies.aspx


RWoods
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I just skimmed it real quick, and this one caught my eye: MHS MEDCO HEALTH SOLUTIONS INC...?


sailor
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And then there is Express Scripts

»finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esrx
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« Who in here will continue to pay taxes after the BAILOUT  


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