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iansltx

join:2007-02-19
Austin, TX
kudos:2
Reviews:
·Time Warner Cable
·Verizon Online DSL

What are they smoking?

At 1.5 Mbps one hour of video is 675 MB. On Verizon's 10GB, $80 plan that works out to $5.40 in bandwidth costs. A full movie at 1.5 Mbps (120 minutes, let's say) would cost more than in-flight pay-per-view!

At $1 per GB we're talking about much more reasonable numbers as far as cost per streamed movie goes, but you're still better off swinging by the nearest Redbox (discounting gas costs) if you're going to watch a longer flick and your connection is in overage mode.

If you look in the wireless ISP forum, everyone over there is freaking out about how Netflix streaming is going to demolish their bandwidth and network infrastructure, because they're paying $300+ per megabit to get 'net access out to these places. The result may be that those WISPs will raise prices or implement caps because the cost of delivering ISP service with no caps and standard usage patterns just want way up :/

This is why a net-neutral, inexpensive middle mile is CRUCIAL to making stuff like Netflix et al work. Especially since everyone is likely to be watching Netflix at around the same time of day, pushing peak load to new highs...

hottboiinnc
ME

join:2003-10-15
Cleveland, OH
NetFlix would have a better run at this if they started trying to partner with ISPs and others- especially in the state. They could by-pass a lot of CDN deals by doing that.


wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace

join:2004-08-07
New York, NY

1 recommendation

reply to iansltx
said by iansltx:

This is why a net-neutral, inexpensive middle mile is CRUCIAL to making stuff like Netflix et al work

"Middle mile" fiber is dirt cheap these days, its the "last mile" that is more expensive.

iansltx

join:2007-02-19
Austin, TX
kudos:2
If you have fiber in a area, yes. If not then no.

openbox9
Premium
join:2004-01-26
Germany
kudos:2
reply to hottboiinnc
Sure, bring on additional ESPN 360-like deals. No thank you. Or are you referring to utilizing each ISP an a CDN, hence having to negotiate several hundred deals opposed to a couple that they do now? That will likely drive up Netflix's costs even more than content distribution rights already have. Eventually ISPs will implement, and enforce, usage caps to minimize the impacts of services like Netflix. Consumer costs will rise and everyone in forums like this will complain about greedy ISPs and how they shouldn't offer services they can't provide.

hottboiinnc
ME

join:2003-10-15
Cleveland, OH
no its partner with the ISPs, especially like indie ISPs and offer them a TV product. read below and you'd understand instead of claiming another ESPN 360 deal. and by the way---It's not a bad deal.


wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace

join:2004-08-07
New York, NY
reply to iansltx
said by iansltx:

If you have fiber in a area, yes. If not then no.

There is a glut of backbone or "middle mile" fiber available in many areas, even in rural locations. That has never really been the problem (at least not for the past 10 years), and it wont likely ever be. The issue has been getting from the fiber interconnection points to the homes, and middle mile fiber has nothing to do with that. Last mile fiber is the challenge most ISP's face when looking to build out new networks.
--
"No you won't" -The American people to President Obama (11/2/2010)



88615298
Premium
join:2004-07-28
West Tenness
reply to hottboiinnc
said by hottboiinnc:

no its partner with the ISPs, especially like indie ISPs and offer them a TV product. read below and you'd understand instead of claiming another ESPN 360 deal. and by the way---It's not a bad deal.

You do realize that ESPN3 still counts against you cap with Comcast and Charter even though ESPN has deals with them.

rahvin112

join:2002-05-24
Sandy, UT
reply to wifi4milez
Most people don't realize that part of the dot-bomb growth in the late 90's was the installation of thousands of miles of dark fiber. Between L3, Qwest and a dozen others there is so much long and medium haul fiber in the ground right now that they might never need to install it again. I don't think L3 has even lit (powered up) 1/3 of the fiber they have in the ground right now.

There's a huge glut of capacity that was driven by the mythical "exaflood" and investors that were throwing money at anything associated with the internet. (plus good planning that knowing the digging was expensive so putting in dozens of fibers and only using a couple immediately was the norm) In fact the only thing driving prices are maintenance and bond payments on the carriers that didn't go bankrupt. Most of the long haul providers barely make money and I wouldn't be surprised if the economics are the same in the medium haul market. The key point here is that the only thing driving prices is maintenance and bond payments. More traffic means maintenance costs spread over more data meaning prices are constantly going down. Fiber prices are dirt cheap, I remember when a DS3 cost $50K a month. The only thing limiting consumers right now is last mile. Once the last mile can handle it there is plenty of capacity in the long haul market.

gunther_01
Premium
join:2004-03-29
Saybrook, IL
Your right, there is plenty of fiber in the ground... Good luck tying in to it. I have 8 1.5" ducts that run 10 blocks away from my main PoP. They are dark, and it would be great to get a gig or two for cheap. The $100k they'd want to "tap" in to it and set a station is a bit more then we can handle. Oh, and the $20k to string the fiber to me.

You have got to be kidding it's the last mile holding things up.


dvd536
as Mr. Pink as they come
Premium
join:2001-04-27
Phoenix, AZ
kudos:4
reply to hottboiinnc
said by hottboiinnc:

NetFlix would have a better run at this if they started trying to partner with ISPs and others-

rofl! what isp doesn't do video these days and thats what caps are all about!
--
The shortest distance between 2 points adds 1.5 stars to T. want $25? solve »coord.info/GC20A37 for me

iansltx

join:2007-02-19
Austin, TX
kudos:2
Reviews:
·Time Warner Cable
·Verizon Online DSL
reply to wifi4milez
Actually, I can say with certainty that there are plenty of areas where people would look at your statement above and say, "You do't know what you're talking about."

There are exactly two providers available in my town if you want to get fiber connectivity, and both would have to build out from their location to that of a subscriber. The providers are Time Warner Cable and Windstream. TWC wants people's business, Windstream doesn't know our market exists. 30 miles away there are three providers (Windstream, TWC, local co-op). There Windstream knows the market exists.

In rural areas with a big cableco you'll almost definitely have the ability to buy cableco fiber in town, at varying levels of expense. For a small cableco the answer to "can I get fiber" will most likely be "no." Telcos are les likely to have this sort of product for a reasonable price, and they're less likely to know what they're doing in giving you a circuit, though there are exceptions to this rule. Big providers like Level3 are available in some areas but you've struck gold if they are.

I'm sure the folks in the WISP forum would LOVE for you to find them cheaper bandwidth due to this dark/lit fiber that you're talking about.

iansltx

join:2007-02-19
Austin, TX
kudos:2
Reviews:
·Time Warner Cable
·Verizon Online DSL
reply to rahvin112
"Fiber is dirt cheap" - How cheap are you thinking? If people want to be able to support Netflix my estimate is that bandwidth will need to be in the $15 per megabit range if you're buying a capped pipe, $20-$25 on 95th percentile.

Also, the VAST majority of the fiber you're talking about is run between major interconnection points (Dallas, LA, NYC, Chicago, Atlanta, Ashburn) with another significant percentage running to big towns that aren't IXPs (San Antonio, Austin, Salt Lake City, Washington DC). Once you get beyond those big cities you end up with at most three fiber providers (ILEC, CLEC like Level3 or someone else, cableco) and in some cases one or more of those won't sell you fiber (try getting fiber from Verizon at a decent price where they're selling DSL only now, and plan to for the foreseeable future...a T3 would be $6000+).

As I mentioned before, connectivity on the consumer side isn't sustainable if they're running Netflix and the provider is paying $100+ per megabit on bandwidth. The economics just don't work out.


wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace

join:2004-08-07
New York, NY
reply to gunther_01
said by gunther_01:

I have 8 1.5" ducts that run 10 blocks away from my main PoP. They are dark, and it would be great to get a gig or two for cheap.

10 blocks is considered a last mile connection.


wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace

join:2004-08-07
New York, NY
reply to iansltx
said by iansltx:

There are exactly two providers available in my town if you want to get fiber connectivity, and both would have to build out from their location to that of a subscriber.

I dont doubt it, however that only proves my assertion. What you are talking about is the textbook definition of last mile connectivity, of which I agree is in short demand in some places. Middle mile fiber typically refers to regional fiber between major market POPs. In some cases it can overlap and include towns, however that is really last mile fiber.
--
"No you won't" -The American people to President Obama (11/2/2010)


iansltx

join:2007-02-19
Austin, TX
kudos:2
Reviews:
·Time Warner Cable
·Verizon Online DSL
Tell that to middle mile providers/grentees from the 7.2B broadband bailout. I assure you, they will disagree completely.

Middle mile, as everyone except you defines it, is the mile (or 50, or 100) of fiber (or microwave) used to et betwee an ISP's PoP (usually in a Ier 3 or smaller cty) and a carrier neutral facility or other "zero loop" location.

By my definition, cellular backhaul all th way up to the cell site is middle mile, though the cellular provider may own part of that middle mile in the form of microwave relays. Zayo is a big playerin this space...just ask T-Mobile. Last mile is the airspace between the cell tower and the user's aircard.

Taking a wireline example, middle mile is al the way to a cable headend. Last mile is the HFC network beyond the CMTS. Last mile on telcos is where active optics stp and passive ones begin...or where the DSLAM is. With Ethernet fibr networks lik SureWest the distinction is more subtle.

You can subdivide the above into parts that the ISP traditionally owns and parts that the telco (AT&T, Verizon, etc.) Traditionally owned (the loop charfge on a T1). However the fact remains that your definition of "last mile" and "middle mile" diverge from those of everyon else.