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tmh

@comcastbusiness.net

reply to dogma

Re: What country are sharp window air conditioners made?

said by dogma:

It was true years ago, but the idea that manufacturing creates jobs is false for the most part now. Be it here or anywhere else in the world.

Correct.

The same held true with agriculture in the early 1900s. Many people have forgotten the transition we experience today is as jolting as when America switched from an agricultural base to a manufacturing one.

As with manufacturing, agriculture became increasingly mechanized to the point that today, we produce considerably more food than we've ever done in the past, but with a fraction of the labor.

Manufacturing will continue in the US, just not widgets that can be made by unskilled/semi-skilled labor. There's a tremendous demand for skilled machinist, and in precision engineering for example. Nobody else in the world can beat us in this.

The question is not whether we should be buying American-made paper products, thumb tacks and spittoons. The question should be: why are we still making this junk?

The long term key to getting to the next step is education. When I see what passes for marketable skills these days, I worry.


Jack_in_VA
Premium
join:2007-11-26
Mathews, VA
kudos:1

said by tmh :

Manufacturing will continue in the US, just not widgets that can be made by unskilled/semi-skilled labor. There's a tremendous demand for skilled machinist, and in precision engineering for example. Nobody else in the world can beat us in this.

The long term key to getting to the next step is education. When I see what passes for marketable skills these days, I worry.

I hope you really don't believe that to be fact. I would say some in other countries might just dispute you on that.


tmh

@verizon.net

said by Jack_in_VA:

said by tmh :

Manufacturing will continue in the US, just not widgets that can be made by unskilled/semi-skilled labor. There's a tremendous demand for skilled machinist, and in precision engineering for example. Nobody else in the world can beat us in this.

The long term key to getting to the next step is education. When I see what passes for marketable skills these days, I worry.

I hope you really don't believe that to be fact. I would say some in other countries might just dispute you on that.

No doubt. There's always room for interpretation, and I'm sure there will be others willing to share their thoughts. That's as it should be. competition is what's keeping us ahead. to harken back to the past is good for reminiscing, but not good for staying ahead.

scross

join:2002-09-13
Cordova, TN

reply to tmh

said by tmh :

said by dogma:

It was true years ago, but the idea that manufacturing creates jobs is false for the most part now. Be it here or anywhere else in the world.

Correct.

The same held true with agriculture in the early 1900s. Many people have forgotten the transition we experience today is as jolting as when America switched from an agricultural base to a manufacturing one.
...
The long term key to getting to the next step is education. When I see what passes for marketable skills these days, I worry.

Ah, but you see, there's the rub! Historically, for an agricultural job all you really needed was a strong back and a willingness to work. Education didn't matter much, so anybody who could and would do the job could usually find work. This scenario still plays out in the migrant farm worker world, where you don't even have to speak the local language in order to do the job.

But for non-agricultural work, you generally have to have some education and/or training, and today you have people who've spent considerable time and money going to college and maybe beyond, perhaps going in massive debt in the process, only to find that there are minimal jobs out there for them. This is HUGE difference from the past, and people are only slowly coming to realize that such extended education is probably no longer particularly smart nor cost-effective. So it's really more a matter of choosing the RIGHT education (four or more years of college is no longer automatically the correct choice), in a field where you expect there will be ongoing or at least near-time demand, and also knowing that you may end up having to repeat this process multiple times during your working career.


Goober
Premium
join:2000-12-17
Naperville, IL
kudos:5
Reviews:
·Dish Network

Education is still key. The unemployment rate for those with college degrees is 4.1%. It's more than double for those without.

But yes, if a person decides to major in something stupid, then that's their call. But overall, college is still a winner.
--
I spent the last two years of high school in a daze. I . . . tried drugs enthusiastically. --Barack "Choomer-in-Chief" Obama. I'm so proud of our prez.


iknow
Premium
join:2012-03-25

said by Goober:

Education is still key. The unemployment rate for those with college degrees is 4.1%. It's more than double for those without.

But yes, if a person decides to major in something stupid, then that's their call. But overall, college is still a winner.

not really, Prostitution can be a pain in the butt, for medical students. »www.myhealthnewsdaily.com/2291-m···ion.html in any country!.

scross

join:2002-09-13
Cordova, TN

reply to Goober

said by Goober:

Education is still key. The unemployment rate for those with college degrees is 4.1%. It's more than double for those without.

But yes, if a person decides to major in something stupid, then that's their call. But overall, college is still a winner.

Actual unemployment and underemployment rates are generally considered to be much higher than what is being reported, for various reasons. And while it may be true that these rates are much lower for college-educated people, I know a TON of young people these days who graduated college and are "employed", but are working as waiters and hostesses and sales clerks and such jobs that don't require a college education. Now, there's nothing wrong with these jobs, per se; some of them can be quite profitable (with tips and such) and/or lead to working your way up the corporate ladder (opportunity is where you find it, but you have to good looking for it, too). While being college-educated may have given them a leg up for even those jobs, who knows whether these young folks will ever find the kind of meaningful employment that they expected to find, or if they will ever get out from under the debt they may be under?


Goober
Premium
join:2000-12-17
Naperville, IL
kudos:5
Reviews:
·Dish Network

reply to iknow
There was something on TV recently about this. It reminded me of a time I'd been to a country western bar in Minneapolis and the cute little waitress girl in cowboy hat, boots and fringe skirt told me that she did this in her spare time as she was attending law school.

I have to tell you, that I never saw girls in my law school classes that looked like her or sounded as ditzy. But when I read and see articles like this, it makes me wonder.
--
I spent the last two years of high school in a daze. I . . . tried drugs enthusiastically. --Barack "Choomer-in-Chief" Obama. I'm so proud of our prez.



Goober
Premium
join:2000-12-17
Naperville, IL
kudos:5
Reviews:
·Dish Network

reply to scross

said by scross:

said by Goober:

Education is still key. The unemployment rate for those with college degrees is 4.1%. It's more than double for those without.

But yes, if a person decides to major in something stupid, then that's their call. But overall, college is still a winner.

Actual unemployment and underemployment rates are generally considered to be much higher than what is being reported, for various reasons. And while it may be true that these rates are much lower for college-educated people, I know a TON of young people these days who graduated college and are "employed", but are working as waiters and hostesses and sales clerks and such jobs that don't require a college education. Now, there's nothing wrong with these jobs, per se; some of them can be quite profitable (with tips and such) and/or lead to working your way up the corporate ladder (opportunity is where you find it, but you have to good looking for it, too). While being college-educated may have given them a leg up for even those jobs, who knows whether these young folks will ever find the kind of meaningful employment that they expected to find, or if they will ever get out from under the debt they may be under?

The unemployment and underemployment rate is significantly higher for non college educated.

When the economy recovers, those college kids will mostly end up doing better than their non-college educated counterparts.

When I came out of law school in 1994, it was a brutal time for law school graduates. I knew many that had well over $100K in loans but could only get $25-40K jobs. I was lucky in that I was able to get a job at a prestige firm at the very top salary range. But those positions were/are few and far between. Regardless, when I talked to a lot of these attorneys ten years later, they were mostly all doing fine. A few left the industry but found good and high paying employment in other capacities.
--
I spent the last two years of high school in a daze. I . . . tried drugs enthusiastically. --Barack "Choomer-in-Chief" Obama. I'm so proud of our prez.

scross

join:2002-09-13
Cordova, TN

reply to iknow

said by iknow:

said by Goober:

Education is still key. The unemployment rate for those with college degrees is 4.1%. It's more than double for those without.

But yes, if a person decides to major in something stupid, then that's their call. But overall, college is still a winner.

not really, Prostitution can be a pain in the butt, for medical students. »www.myhealthnewsdaily.com/2291-m···ion.html in any country!.

Don't ask me how I know this, but ten or fifteen years ago there was a sweet and sexy young thing (who was originally from England, too, IIRC) out of the Atlanta area who was attending medical school there, and who was offering her "services" to out-of-town men who might be traveling through the Atlanta area on business. She preferred these men to the locals for privacy reasons, and Atlanta was excellent for this, and she was making good use of the internet for finding potential clients and setting up appointments, which was a fairly novel use at the time.

And no, even though back then I made it down to Atlanta occasionally, I never made use of her services, although out of curiosity I did chat with her a bit about what she offered. I was a bit surprised to find that she had a boyfriend (probably her future husband, or so she thought) who was completely OK with this.

scross

join:2002-09-13
Cordova, TN

reply to Goober

said by Goober:

said by scross:

said by Goober:

Education is still key. The unemployment rate for those with college degrees is 4.1%. It's more than double for those without.

But yes, if a person decides to major in something stupid, then that's their call. But overall, college is still a winner.

Actual unemployment and underemployment rates are generally considered to be much higher than what is being reported, for various reasons. And while it may be true that these rates are much lower for college-educated people, I know a TON of young people these days who graduated college and are "employed", but are working as waiters and hostesses and sales clerks and such jobs that don't require a college education. Now, there's nothing wrong with these jobs, per se; some of them can be quite profitable (with tips and such) and/or lead to working your way up the corporate ladder (opportunity is where you find it, but you have to good looking for it, too). While being college-educated may have given them a leg up for even those jobs, who knows whether these young folks will ever find the kind of meaningful employment that they expected to find, or if they will ever get out from under the debt they may be under?

The unemployment and underemployment rate is significantly higher for non college educated.

When the economy recovers, those college kids will mostly end up doing better than their non-college educated counterparts.

When I came out of law school in 1994, it was a brutal time for law school graduates. I knew many that had well over $100K in loans but could only get $25-40K jobs. I was lucky in that I was able to get a job at a prestige firm at the very top salary range. But those positions were/are few and far between. Regardless, when I talked to a lot of these attorneys ten years later, they were mostly all doing fine. A few left the industry but found good and high paying employment in other capacities.

The unemployment and underemployment rate has been (historically) significantly higher for non college-educated individuals; this may or may not hold true from here on out. And about the "doing fine" thing: You're ignoring the fact that, every year, more or more students are coming off the line who may be competing for these very same jobs, and employers may even prefer them to the older group for various reasons. And law has been on the out-of-favor list for a while now; I've known lawyers who dumped their current jobs for jobs in IT and such, ten or more years ago.

The upshot is that attitudes such as yours may be seriously outdated. There are plenty of colleges and universities out there who like to perpetuate this line of thinking, and seem to be happy to continue massive building campaigns and raising tuition rates under the pretense that huge demand will always be there, as if spending more and more money for their particular brand of education will always be a no-brainer. But, as many are starting to point out (including some of the more progressive educators AND employers), this model is something like 125 years old now, and doesn't necessarily mesh well with the modern world, and is no longer cost-effective in many situations and hasn't been for a while.

Interestingly, on the employer side I've seen two different things. Fast-moving, progressive (usually technical) industries want people who know enough to be immediately useful (no matter how they acquired that knowledge), but are also flexible enough to keep learning (no matter how they acquire that knowledge). While many other industries keep to the traditional methods and are even making things more difficult, like requiring Master's degrees for entry-level jobs where before a Bachelor's was sufficient. The worst among them will take people who have a Bachelor's (or equivalent work experience), who have been doing the job for years, then require them to get a Master's (or Bachelor's, as the case may be) in order to move up the ladder or in some cases even to keep their current job. This is incredibly stupid, BTW, and is a great way to destroy your organization.


Goober
Premium
join:2000-12-17
Naperville, IL
kudos:5
Reviews:
·Dish Network

said by scross:

The unemployment and underemployment rate has been (historically) significantly higher for non college-educated individuals; this may or may not hold true from here on out. And about the "doing fine" thing: You're ignoring the fact that, every year, more or more students are coming off the line who may be competing for these very same jobs, and employers may even prefer them to the older group for various reasons. And law has been on the out-of-favor list for a while now; I've known lawyers who dumped their current jobs for jobs in IT and such, ten or more years ago.

The upshot is that attitudes such as yours may be seriously outdated. There are plenty of colleges and universities out there who like to perpetuate this line of thinking, and seem to be happy to continue massive building campaigns and raising tuition rates under the pretense that huge demand will always be there, as if spending more and more money for their particular brand of education will always be a no-brainer. But, as many are starting to point out (including some of the more progressive educators AND employers), this model is something like 125 years old now, and doesn't necessarily mesh well with the modern world, and is no longer cost-effective in many situations and hasn't been for a while.

Interestingly, on the employer side I've seen two different things. Fast-moving, progressive (usually technical) industries want people who know enough to be immediately useful (no matter how they acquired that knowledge), but are also flexible enough to keep learning (no matter how they acquire that knowledge). While many other industries keep to the traditional methods and are even making things more difficult, like requiring Master's degrees for entry-level jobs where before a Bachelor's was sufficient. The worst among them will take people who have a Bachelor's (or equivalent work experience), who have been doing the job for years, then require them to get a Master's (or Bachelor's, as the case may be) in order to move up the ladder or in some cases even to keep their current job. This is incredibly stupid, BTW, and is a great way to destroy your organization.

I'm of the opinion that the degree matters. We have hundreds of job openings at my present company that mostly require BS/MS/MBA degrees with a few AAS type degrees.

I don't go for the "no matter how they acquired the knowledge" thing. I'd rather have a BSEE or MSEE coming out of school than knocking about for god knows how many years thinking I'm going to get on the job silicon design training. Or a BSEE coupled with an MBA rather than on the job training for both. No matter how hard a person tries, most will likely not move up the ladder as quickly as someone holding an ivy league MBA. Maybe the model is 125 years old, but it's still true now as it was before.

I'd choose patent law as a career over and over again. The field has exploded. So I don't know what lawyers you know that would dump a law career for an IT job, but as a patent attorney I'd never do that. The IP biz is going great guns now and it's not looking to slow down any time soon.

If the lawyers are ambulance chasers or if the undergrad degrees are in something not useful, then that's on the person making the decision. A good, useful college degree is still very valuable.

The thinking that "I don't need education and I'll learn it as I go is" what has led to the decline of the competitiveness of the US along with us becoming more and more of a welfare/entitlement state.
--
I spent the last two years of high school in a daze. I . . . tried drugs enthusiastically. --Barack "Choomer-in-Chief" Obama. I'm so proud of our prez.


dogma
XYZ
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
kudos:1

reply to Goober

said by Goober:

When the economy recovers, ...

When??

The economy has recovered. This is it. You're in it.

Of course this is all my opinion, but our Japanification began 5 years ago. Between the net zero population growth and automation, there are no net new jobs on the horizon. None.

The published unemployment rate metrics are a sham any way you look at them. Baby boomers are retiring at 10,000 per day, or 300,000 per Month...yet the economy struggles to create 100,000 jobs per month. This is what I mean by "net new". That's 300,000 people leaving their jobs - permanently, who are effectively being replaced by 100,000 people.

That math don't add up...it adds down. (if there is such a thing) This is why 1 in 2 new college graduates are jobless or underemployed. It's not going to get better, it's going to get worse.

I've said this 1,000 times here; there can be no new demand for products and services if there are no new people here. And there are no. new. people. (net wise anyway). Add to this, the other dynamics of domestic public & private debt, the absolute drain on society of these millions of retirees looking for their checks every month, the killer of companies seeking to offer jobs first to robots/automation, and the fact that there is no technology we can create & produce domestically that can't be replicated elsewhere in the world almost immediately. The barriers to entry in the world of technology are rapidly becoming non-existent. And remember, almost every new commercially viable technology that we can make, is going to be some form of further automation that kills even more jobs.

But I'm glad you're optimistic.


Goober
Premium
join:2000-12-17
Naperville, IL
kudos:5
Reviews:
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I am absolutely optimistic. Maybe I've had good luck my entire corporate life since 1987, but I have no doubt that a strong degree (albeit it may have to be an advanced degree) from a good college is still worthwhile. At least for the coming generation.

Remember, I don't have to outrun the bear. I just have to outrun you!
--
I spent the last two years of high school in a daze. I . . . tried drugs enthusiastically. --Barack "Choomer-in-Chief" Obama. I'm so proud of our prez.



dogma
XYZ
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
kudos:1

Exactly! Which is Pandora's paradox box:

said by Goober:

I'm of the opinion that the degree matters. We have hundreds of job openings at my present company that mostly require BS/MS/MBA degrees with a few AAS type degrees.

I wanted to comment on this as well.

We too have 100's of job openings, most of which require a degree. At least that's what's stated. Although I think the degree has become the new/defacto corporate aptitude test. Back in the day, companies use to give non-degree'd applicants aptitude test that revolved around a particular discipline and overall learning skills as well. But too many applicants that didn't pass those test sued, saying the test were biased in one form or another. Now companies just ask for a degree thinking that if someone finished college, they must have an aptitude for learning.

With respect to your organization have 100's of openings, like I said, our group does too. But this fact is in no way any indicator at all of the employment health of the country. As a matter of fact, for every new employee we bring on, I estimate that 5 other people loose there jobs someplace else. Because that's our business. Replacing a customers internal IT staff, with external services. 80% automated services.

So it depends on exactly what your company is doing right? I am willing to bet your company does something, be it manufacture a product or offer a service, that's more efficient than the competitors? Your company is gaining market share, while competitors (or whatever entity that your product/service replaces) are losing market share. If that's true, then while your firm is bringing on labor, somewhere someone's getting laid off...by an order of magnitude.

Like you said, all you gotta do is outrun someone else.


tmh

@verizon.net

reply to scross

said by scross:

Ah, but you see, there's the rub! Historically, for an agricultural job all you really needed was a strong back and a willingness to work. Education didn't matter much, so anybody who could and would do the job could usually find work. This scenario still plays out in the migrant farm worker world, where you don't even have to speak the local language in order to do the job.

But for non-agricultural work, you generally have to have some education and/or training, and today you have people who've spent considerable time and money going to college and maybe beyond, perhaps going in massive debt in the process, only to find that there are minimal jobs out there for them. This is HUGE difference from the past, and people are only slowly coming to realize that such extended education is probably no longer particularly smart nor cost-effective. So it's really more a matter of choosing the RIGHT education (four or more years of college is no longer automatically the correct choice), in a field where you expect there will be ongoing or at least near-time demand, and also knowing that you may end up having to repeat this process multiple times during your working career.

All quite true. For those fortunate enough to have the intellect, or to be in the right field, there continues to be strong demand for their skills.
For those with hardcore science and engineering degrees, companies are hiring them before they graduate. I have five positions right now that I can't fill because there's so much demand for CS types.

Actually, the problem goes much farther back. There needs to be a rethinking of how we teach our young. Bring back an emphasis on science, math, and engineering. They never go out of style, no matter what you find yourself doing down the road.

scross

join:2002-09-13
Cordova, TN

reply to Goober

Re: What country are sharp window air conditioners made?

No, you (perhaps) have hundreds of job openings that list these degrees as a requirement; the jobs themselves don't necessarily actually require them! This is just cheap and easy filter for excluding large number of potential job applicants in an buyer's market - though not necessarily an unreasonable one, at first blush.

(I could make a point here about having a degree in general vs. having a degree in a specific area, but I will save that for maybe later.)

And about that "perhaps": Just because these jobs are listed doesn't mean that they are real. Many may in fact be unfunded, some of them may have been listed (and re-listed) for ages now with no real intention of filling them, and so on. And if the company were that anxious to fill them (as one might assume), then the degree "requirements" would be treated as more of a preference, not necessarily a requirement. Trust me, if these people were really that needed, and the economy were in better shape (fewer potential applicants), then your company might soon find itself being very flexible here, as is almost always the case!

(I'm tired and it's getting late, so rather than go on an extended rant, from here on out I will just hit the high points.)

Licensed professions like engineering (and law, and medicine) are based on the licensing tests. Historically, some people (autodidacts) have been able to pass these tests with plenty of study but little to no formal training. The requirement for formal training is a relatively recent development, but it is perfectly reasonable for most people. And if you ask an engineer, many will tell you that most of what they learned in school they don't actually use on a daily basis, if at all - as is true for my degree.

MBAs these days are generally worthless, from a practical standpoint; HBS MBAs are among the worst. In fact, the Ivy League MBAs that I've seen tend to start out relatively high in the food chain, then work there way DOWN the ladder, based on their lack of experience and often massive incompetence. I just recently saw this happen to someone I know (a Harvard MBA), who, via "world-class" creative financial engineering, helped turn his company from a boringly profitable one into one massively in debt and bordering on bankruptcy (he had plenty of help, of course), all the while telling the world about the company's financial "vision". So now he's done the "smart" thing and jumped ship, into a smaller organization with a smaller paycheck and lesser prospects, but at least he won't still be on the other ship when it finally goes down. An awful lot of people are going to get burned when it does, though, just as an awful lot of people have been already.

As a patent lawyer, you're most likely part of this nation's problem, not the solution. The current patent system is so screwed up that we might as well invalidate most patents and just start over from scratch. And if you haven't been keeping up lately, there are some judges now who seem to be willing to take a crap on the whole thing, which is encouraging.

Continuous "learning as you go" may be the most sensible thing to do these days, as fast as everything is changing. Willful ignorance is one thing, but learning just enough of the basics to get a good, solid start, then picking up the rest as you go by doing the job is actually a pretty smart (time-effective and cost-effective) way to do things. And, in fact, school doesn't really prepare you for the job that well, anyway; it just helps filter out the incompetent or the disinterested, which is why HR loves it so much. In my experience, you don't really start "learning" until you start "doing".


Goober
Premium
join:2000-12-17
Naperville, IL
kudos:5
Reviews:
·Dish Network

Just because Posner doesn't like how patents are being used doesn't mean that he'll be able to change anything. As for patent lawyers, you have no idea that I'm part of the problem. We defend against troll suits all the time, but rarely enforce our own unless it's blatant and directly in our industry. Or would you rather that our company just sit back and get hammered? If you're going to through crap out there, think about what you're saying.

I think a bigger part of the problem is people who discourage formal learning and think that we can stay competitive with the rest of the world. Personally, I don't think we can stay world class by giving handouts and saying it's okay not to go to school. The people that generally think like that are the ones who couldn't or didn't go to school. I hate to tell you, but when I was doing chip design, there wasn't a single non-engineer that had or would have been able to learn that on the job.

Finally, our company has many HBS grads (our CEO is one) and we're among the most successfull companies of the last 20+ years. Not even Apple has been able to match the consistency of success we've had.

So, even though you use lots of words in your response, it boils down to finding the right people and executing. Just because you have eperience with one HBS grad who messed up doesn't mean they all are corrupt/clueless.
--
I spent the last two years of high school in a daze. I . . . tried drugs enthusiastically. --Barack "Choomer-in-Chief" Obama. I'm so proud of our prez.



Jack_in_VA
Premium
join:2007-11-26
Mathews, VA
kudos:1

said by Goober:

Just because Posner doesn't like how patents are being used doesn't mean that he'll be able to change anything. As for patent lawyers, you have no idea that I'm part of the problem. We defend against troll suits all the time, but rarely enforce our own unless it's blatant and directly in our industry. Or would you rather that our company just sit back and get hammered? If you're going to through crap out there, think about what you're saying.

I think a bigger part of the problem is people who discourage formal learning and think that we can stay competitive with the rest of the world. Personally, I don't think we can stay world class by giving handouts and saying it's okay not to go to school. The people that generally think like that are the ones who couldn't or didn't go to school. I hate to tell you, but when I was doing chip design, there wasn't a single non-engineer that had or would have been able to learn that on the job.

Finally, our company has many HBS grads (our CEO is one) and we're among the most successfull companies of the last 20+ years. Not even Apple has been able to match the consistency of success we've had.

So, even though you use lots of words in your response, it boils down to finding the right people and executing. Just because you have eperience with one HBS grad who messed up doesn't mean they all are corrupt/clueless.

World Class? We haven't been anything close to "world class" for a long time now. Once our educational system got dumbed down it's been downhill ever since.

The world class belief by Americans is mostly coming from those in denial or politicians trying to tweak the self esteem of citizens who have little hope.

If anyone thinks we are world class go to Google Images and type in the decline of Detroit which is representative of our once great manufacturing industries that provided millions with a steady job, income and benefits.

Everyone can't be a lawyer. Too many of them now anyway. We lead the world in the number of lawyers.

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