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deakon
@home.com
|  Lots of questions
Some interesting thoughts from someone inside the industry.
1) Does Direct TV REALLY believe that they can handle the customer support side of this thing? When we began, we all believed that we could do MASS deployment of service and maintain a dialup support model. Business customers rarely need alot of support whereas, residental customers need a tremendous amount of support. I have had to walk people through replacing the NIC card and it took 3 hours.
2) Why buy a reseller? Telocity is bound by the service that is provided by the CLEC's. One of the major reasons that DSL has hit the skids is that we (the resellers) were able to sell X number of lines (all qualified based on the CLEC's 'qual tool') but when it came right down to it, the CLEC's would only be able to install about 40% of those lines sold. That's like running a car dealership where of 10 people who come to your lot to buy a car, you tell them all that you can get them the car but then you end up working (ALOT) with all of them, only to find out that you have wasted your time on 6 of them. I don't care how good you are as a reseller. If you sell 1000 lines and only install 400, you can't succeed. Why buy a reseller when they could buy a CLEC and a reseller and control the whole loop. Regardless, if the CLEC's don't 'fix' their qual tool, DSL will continue to be a headache for everyone involved.
3) Delivery of service to the home. Once again, we have an issue with Telocity being a reseller. If Hughes wants to integrate the Web and the TV, that's great. However, the Northpoint Installer is going to say. "Where do you want this." How many people are going to say..."please connect it to my TV." They are not, they are going to connect it to the computer in their "home office". Then when the customer wants to get web enabled TV, what do they do? Run wires across the floor, down the stairs, to the back of the TV? Only sounds like a winner for people who live in a studio apartment, and last I checked, I didn't have alot of those type of customers using both satelite AND DSL. Ok, sure its easy enough to wire a home, but come on, how many typical "residential" users are really going to pay for it, or take that project on themselves.
4) Cost. Finally as the point was made previously, I don't believe that you can provide residential DSL with any type of service for cheap. I honestly believe that you will see the price of Residential DSL go from $39.95 to $69.95 or $79.95 within the next year. It just has no margin and support costs are too high. To that end, What am I going to pay for in this? $49.95 for my DSL service and another $50.00 a month for DirectTV plus another bunch o bucks for all my pay-per-view events and movies-on-demand? So At then end of the month, my bill is like $150.00 for TV and internet, when I could get all the same thing with Digital Cable and Internet for much less. Throw in my phone and my internet, phone, and TV all come on one bill.
Just as DirectPC/TV marriage has not really made a big splash, I don't see the DirectTV/Telocity marriage doing anything but prolonging the agony of the residential DSL user.
Just my enlightened opinion | |
justin
Australian
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| 1) evidently they do. time will tell. They will integrate and idiot proof the hell out of things if they want to survive.
2) because telocity is also an ISP (with POPs), plus has done all the hard work to e-bond to 5 or 6 CLECs and ILECs? Nevertheless, I think buying Rhythms as well might be a good move.
3) they seem to suggest they will be putting the telocity modem into the set-top box. All installs would be line-sharing installs so there is no northpoint installer. Just plug it in and pray for green. The only battle is how to get that set-top box connected to your PC.. running ethernet all over the house is not something many people would enjoy planning for.
4) cost - they have the ability to bundle satellite + internet all in one subscription plan and one box. Thats pretty powerful way of reducing costs. They would have to be considering bundled subscription plans otherwise as you say, the cable competition (where available!) is cheaper.
I'm wondering how their AOLTV product will go now .. this seems like a more direct threat to timewarner/aol cable now. | |
JYoung
G L 2814
join:2000-06-13
Sherman Oaks, CA
| Before you break out the champange, there's a couple of things you need to consider:
DirecTV is an separate company. It is wholly owned and operated by Hughes Electronics (which is owned by GM) but it is separate (at least the DirecTV employees considers themselves separate). How fast or how well any integration of services will go remains to be seen.
DirecTV has been up for sale for many months now. Several companies have been looking into purchasing them including AOL (primarily as a backup in case the Time Warner merger didn't go through), NEWS Corp(Fox-Murdoch), Viacom (CBS-Paramount), and Comcast.
http://www.latimes.com/business/cotown/20001213/t000118985.html
Hughes recently sold off their Space Satellite and Communications division (the guys who build and program the satellites) to Boeing. This seems like a key cog in a satellite based business
I'm not sure what's going on with Hughes buying Telocity when you consider that the internal Hughes scuttlebutt was that GM was dismantling and selling off divisions. It's confusing to say the least.
GM may just be trying to make Hughes look more attractive to outside buyers. When you consider that they originally purchased Hughes to beef up their automotive electronics, you do have to wonder.
--
If you're wondering how he eats and breathes and other science facts, then repeat to yourself "it's just a show, I should really just relax" | |
Anon | reply to deakon
Answers to Lots of questions
The deal makes perfect sense just not sure about the price.
1. DirecTV has 8 million subscribers currently. I there 800 seat call centers can handle Telocity's 30K subs and next years new adds. New adds will come from DirecTV's base. Look for Telocity to stop the cute advertising in the short term.
2. DirecTV/Hughes had been looking at DSL for quite a few months, 6+, to combat churn to cable's integrated package so an aquisition shouldn't have been a suprise to any industry insider who really knows what is going on. They didn't buy a CLEC because of the EPS impact it would have to the Hughes bottom line (same reason why Verizon killed their deal with NPNT). I don't see anyone buying any CLEC anytime soon, buyers will just wait for the asset liquidation sales in Chp. 11 and buy DSLAMS and Colo space at pennies on the dollar. Remember CLECs are really glorified resellers too, they resell the most important piece, the copper loop. Only the ILEC is in complete control.
The real question people should be asking is why did Hughes pay such a premium for Telocity? I take my hat off to Telocity's bankers for negotiating a great deal. Hughes' board must not watch CNBC or read DSL Reports.
3. Watch for an integrated DirecTV/DSL/Cable modem set top box. The box will have a 40-80G hard drive and serve as a home LAN server/cache. Multiple connections via home pna/wireless 802.11
4. Just another line item on the bill to DirecTV. Your not considering economics of reduced churn by offering a combined package.
The REAL QUESTION PEOPLE SHOULD BE ASKING IS WHAT'S NEXT, I.E. WHO DOES DIRECTV/TELOCITY GO WITH IN TERMS OF A CLEC RELATIONSHIP (NPNT or RTHM). I placing my bets on RTHM in the short term. I would short NPNT if you still can.
Remember it can, and probably will, go to zero. | |
Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
| reply to JYoung
Re: Lots of questions
said by JYoung:
GM may just be trying to make Hughes look more attractive to outside buyers. When you consider that they originally purchased Hughes to beef up their automotive electronics, you do have to wonder.
Well, so long as the money keeps flowing from somewhere, to get it to a stable and profitable state, thats what counts. (So long as it's not AOL :/ )
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-Hayward
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West) | |
lml2000
Whazzup
join:2000-08-17
Los Angeles, CA
 ·RoadRunner Cable
|  reply to deakon
said by deakon:
Some interesting thoughts from someone inside the industry.
1) Does Direct TV REALLY believe that they can handle the customer support side of this thing?
I think so, or they wouldn't have even considered the deal. Hey, I'm a recent sub to DirecTV and have what is considered a "custom" installed, having a installed a remote and separate feed to my Replay recording device. Many of the installers are trained in telco and not just installing a dish on the roof and running coax cable to the set-top box. These guys are going to school and being trained. BTW, the installer who came to my house last week, who use to work for PacBell and has worked in the field with fiber, hinted to me that something "whazzup" when we got to talking about Internet and 2-way access, so this is no surprise, and you can be sure that DirecTV is prepared to make this work.
2) Why buy a reseller? Telocity is bound by the service that is provided by the CLEC's. Sure Telocity is bound to their EXISTING CLEC contracts, but not necessarily to DTV's subscribers. I'm sure you are aware that DTV has a JV operation with SBC.
The incumbent carriers these days no longer view themselves as "carriers" per se, but rather ACCESS facilities providers. In other words, they aren't stuck on being the transporter of the data, but are content merely to provide the facilities and create a nice revenue stream by leasing such ACCESS.
Why a buy a reseller v. a CLEC? Its all about ACCESS to customers; its not about owning the nodes along the route. As someone else correctly pointed out, CLECs in a sense, are nothing but resellers themselves. Why deal with a CLEC when you can deal directly with the incumbent yourself? What are your really after? ACCESS.
3) Delivery of service to the home. Once again, we have an issue with Telocity being a reseller. If Hughes wants to integrate the Web and the TV, that's great. However, the Northpoint Installer is going to say. "Where do you want this." How many people are going to say..."please connect it to my TV." . . ."
Don't get stuck on Northpoint this, and Covad that. They don't own the lines; the incumbent does. The only legal rights these CLECs have is to provide the switch to Telocity's existing customer base. This is NOT with DTV purchased Telocity. They purchased it for its backbone, its POPs and its ability to "extend down the channel" to the DBS customer and provided him/her a healthy upstream connection that he/she is without UNLESS he/she has DSL with another provider or a cable modem which DTV would view as a "no-no."
4) Cost. Finally as the point was made previously, I don't believe that you can provide residential DSL with any type of service for cheap. I honestly believe that you will see the price of Residential DSL go from $39.95 to $69.95 or $79.95 within the next year. It just has no margin and support costs are too high. To that end, What am I going to pay for in this? $49.95 for my DSL service and another $50.00 a month for DirectTV plus another bunch o bucks for all my pay-per-view events and movies-on-demand? So At then end of the month, my bill is like $150.00 for TV and internet, when I could get all the same thing with Digital Cable and Internet for much less. Throw in my phone and my internet, phone, and TV all come on one bill.
Yup. That's the way its gonna work. I don't see the price of RESIDENTIAL DSL going up UNLESS it is commensurate with an improved QoS. In other words, the price of DSL will go up, but it will be akin to a "business-class" type of service. You get what you pay for. If you fly coach, expect the plane to be jammed back; if you shove out for business or first class, expect a smooth ride. This is where DSL is headed IMHO. The price of residential "coach" is unlikely to rise in face of competition from the cable guys. Many a cable modem subscriber, IMHO, has been in surfing heaven on borrowed time. As their networks become congested, expect more and more problems, big ones. Remember, these guys are experienced in broadcast, not 2-way access.
Just as DirectPC/TV marriage has not really made a big splash, I don't see the DirectTV/Telocity marriage doing anything but prolonging the agony of the residential DSL user.
This is misleading. DirecPC was something offered to DirecTVs rural customers, who over the past few years, had little or no prospect of broadband via DSL or cable modem. It was clear from the get-go that DirecPC could not compete with terrestrial broadband, and it will not in the future. This Telocity deal is different by its very nature; it terrestrial.
BTW, what industry are you from within?
Just my enlightened opinion
--
Regards,
lml | |
lml2000
Whazzup
join:2000-08-17
Los Angeles, CA
·RoadRunner Cable
| reply to justin
[QUOTE=justin
I'm wondering how their AOLTV product will go now .. this seems like a more direct threat to timewarner/aol cable now.
[/QUOTE]
Exactamundo. As I see it, the greatest vulnerability to the DBS platform was the inability to provide the interactive experience the MSOs are pushing for. Sure, there's been a lot of criticisms regarding iTV. But really, how often do those who take on risk and introduce new technology get it right the first time. iTV will be here soon, and it will be very appealing to a certain segment of the population. How large that segment will be remains to be seen, but I think it will be a large portion of the consumer market who are already drawn to DBS, to broadband, and to e-commerce. iTV is definitely in the cross-hairs of those in the broadcast industry. Its a "buried treasure" ready to be claimed.
JMO | |
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