O Canada! > Canadian > Canadian Chat > [Weather] Batten Down the Hatches

WOCN31 CWHX 092345
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:43 PM ADT SUNDAY
9 SEPTEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
LABRADOR
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT.

VERY LARGE TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ENROUTE TO ATLANTIC CANADA
WITH DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS - HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH
WINDS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: 33.8 NORTH 62.0 WEST.

ABOUT 310 KILOMETRES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 22 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

OVERVIEW:

THERE WILL BE DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA AS
FOLLOWS: A FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE MARITIMES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LESLIE TO THE SOUTH. 40 TO 50 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ALREADY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT AND NOT FROM LESLIE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY THEN MERGE WITH LESLIE WITH THE COMBINED SYSTEMS CROSSING NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY GIVING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE ALREADY WARNED AREAS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF LESLIE'S CENTRE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN NEWFOUNDLAND IS QUITE HIGH NOW (85%). THE STORM'S EFFECTS WILL BE FAR-REACHING WITH A CIRCULATION ABOUT 800 KILOMETRES IN DIAMETER SO DO NOT PUT MUCH FOCUS ON THE LINE ON THE TRACK MAP.

MUCH-SMALLER HURRICANE MICHAEL WELL TO THE EAST OF LESLIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. IT APPEARS THAT STORM WILL LIKELY BE BYPASSED BY LESLIE'S LARGE CIRCULATION. MONITOR IT.

A. WIND.

WIND IMPACTS FROM THE ACTUAL CIRCULATION OF LESLIE ARE NOW EXPECTED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND POSSIBLY CAPE BRETON. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A TUESDAY EVENT IN TERMS OF WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST
80 KM/H ARE PROBABLE OVER EASTERN CAPE BRETON TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 100 KM/H ARE PROBABLE IN NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER THESE NUMBERS CAN EASILY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OCCURS.

B. RAINFALL.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE MERGED FRONT/HURRICANE IS EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND NEWFOUNDLAND. EVENT-TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100-150 MILLIMETRES (4 TO 6 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE COMPUTER MODELS AND EXPERIENCE WITH SETUPS LIKE THIS IN THE PAST. LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CLEARER A BIT LATER, BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SWATH OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS INCLUDES EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA, CAPE BRETON, AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALLS IN THIS RANGE COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES AND IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT RESIDENTS TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT. WATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY LOW IN THE FORE-MENTIONED AREAS AFTER A DRY SEASON, BUT FLASH-TYPE FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE IN VULNERABLE AREAS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVIER SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM ARRIVES IN NEWFOUNDLAND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME VERY HEAVY SURF AND SURGE IMPACTS.
DETAILS WILL COME IN SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

A LARGE PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE MARINE DISTRICT WILL BE AFFECTED BY LESLIE AND COMBINED FRONT. STORM AND/OR HURRICANE-FORCE WIND WARNINGS MAY BE POSTED FOR SOME MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS WITH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FORECAST.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.