|reply to Whyyou421 |
Re: Are New Speeds Still Coming?
According to Dave Burstein at DSL Prime, vectoring is only going to be available on new builds. Existing uverse won't be upgraded unless the competitive situation changes.
From now on, every new build thats mostly under 3,000 feet should be vectored. Up to 300 meters, speeds are proving out at 70-100 meg down, 10-40 up. AT&T hasnt suggested they would upgrade the existing 30M lines, so only the last 10% of U-Verse is likely to benefit. It should add less than $200M to the overall U-Verse cost. Existing vendors Alcatel and Adtran hope for the contract, while Calix is trying to edge in. Only Alcatel is publicly shipping vectored DSLAMs, but Adtran and Calix are working to catch up.
In Germany, there are 12M or more homes to upgrade; Britain, France and Italy also have many non-upgraded lines that would be natural. At this years BBWF, it was clear the technical problems are fast being solved. But Britain and France are holding back on vectoring because its not clear how it will work with unbundling. The three countries have prices 30-50% lower than the U.S. because they have four wireline competitors. They dont want to give that up.
AT&T has for years had a contingency plan to use vectoring and bonding if customers in volume leave for 100 megabit cable. That isn't in the data, and Randall publicly says "20-30 megabits will be competitive for many years." In fact, AT&T has been holding market share in U-Verse areas where they only offer 10-15 megabits. To do a full upgrade to vectoring would bring 70-100 megabits to the majority of U-Verse homes for about $2B/year for three years. That's a plausible investment but they've given no indication they will pull the trigger unless cable gets much more aggressive. U-Verse is built to a 5-6,000 foot standard; vectoring improvements fall off dramatically after 2,000 feet. So many of the U-Verse homes will not see speedups even if AT&T moves ahead aggressively.
|reply to Zoder |
As a tech I have done a few pairbond installs in the 2-3k range and would see speeds up to 100 on several customers. But the key to this upgrade is to activate each uverse customer with a second pair.
This is the major sticking point in all PB installs, most areas the techs struggle because lack of training or just being exposed to the techniques I&R uses. When I was in Dallas, Houston and even San Antonio, most techs would end up doing a subpar install or kicking the job to I&R.
I could never see the possibility of a complete upgrade, they don't have enough qualified techs, and if they don't act fast the cable speeds will be untouchable.