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SwedishRider
Rider on the Storm
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reply to skeechan

Re: [iPhone] Do you think the iPhone is a good "value"

said by skeechan:

Meanwhile iPhone sales appear to be doing just fine and despite all the whining had yet another record quarter, despite it being only 13 weeks instead of the usual 14.

That misses the bigger picture. It's not about a great quarter, it's about how well they will do in the coming quarters... aka growth. Their prospects for growth are dimming as their product line stagnates and others innovate. I read somewhere that the iPhone is no longer the prized phone to own in China, which is having a profound effect on growth prospects overseas.

They're not going bankrupt, but they are not growing nearly as fast as they have over the recent past. Their product pipline (or lack thereof) will determine if they can turn that around, or if they've hit their market saturation point. Looking at market share, it's clear Android handsets are pulling away from the pack.

Apple needs to demonstrate that they still can innovate post-Jobs... and they simply have yet to do so.


skeechan
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Growth has been in the insane double digits for eons. Expecting 50% year over year over year over year, is exponential growth and no company sustains it, especially as these extraordinarily high levels. But that doesn't mean that growth doesn't continue at an insane rate as it is still doing at Apple.

No one else is innovating, the market is stagnant in terms of actual innovation. They're taking the same products and making small tweaks...little bigger screen, little faster processor; nothing revolutionary.

Meanwhile Apple sold a record number of handsets, more than Samsung did in the US and they make higher margins on each.



SwedishRider
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Well, we shall see I suppose. Personally, I think Apple is at the begninings of a long, slow decline in the post-Jobs era. But as always... time will tell.



skeechan
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This last quarter they sold nearly 50 million iPhones with 30% y/y growth. They did another 20 something million iPads for nearly 50% y/y growth. As that slows they're still going to get a lot of altitude before they see declines in sales numbers, if they ever see declines in sales numbers.

If there is ever a decline, it would start with hundreds of billions in the bank and hundreds of millions of unit sales per year. If there ever is a decline, you are right, it would take a long time...a VERY long time.

They would have to pull a metro to F this all up or someone else invent a phone that gives awesome BJs. A 5" screen and NFC ain't gonna do it.