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<title>Weather forum - dslreports.com community</title>
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<description>Weather forum current topics</description>
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<copyright>Copyright 2007, dslreports.com</copyright>
<pubDate>Sat, 26 Jul 2008 07:55:58 EDT</pubDate>
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<item>
<title>Hurricane Dolly</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20784585</link>
<description><![CDATA[[att=1,l]A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has become organized enough this morning to be classified as a threat area (Invest 94L) by NHC. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the disturbance, but last night's pass revealed 94L's large, elongated circulation near 9N 35W. Visible satellite loops show this circulation getting better defined this morning, although there is not yet much organized heavy thunderstorm activity. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of tropical moisture, and 94L should be unaffected by dry air or Saharan dust over the next few days. Water temperatures are favorable for development--27.5&deg;C. Wind shear is favorable for development--10 knots.

The forecast for 94L
NHC is giving 94L a medium 20-50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Wind shear is expected to remain low, less than 10 knots, for the next four days, and the water temperatures will be plenty warm enough to support development. Three of the four global models we trust predict 94L will develop into a tropical depression. The ECMWF develops it and puts 94L into the Lesser Antilles islands on Saturday. The UKMET model does not develop it, but also puts it into the Lesser Antilles islands on Saturday. The GFS develops it but foresees that Bertha will be close enough and strong enough to pull 94L north of the Lesser Antilles about, 6-8 days from now. The NOGAPS model is much slower, and does not foresee a threat to the Lesser Antilles this week. In summary, there is the potential for a tropical depression to form later this week from 94L, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions affecting the islands by Saturday.

--
My Bloggs,
http://www.insidetheie.com/ http://earthlogii.blogspot.com/ http://vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/ 
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20784585</guid>
<pubDate>2008-07-13 13:48:41</pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>[Info] What we are watching....</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20842795</link>
<description><![CDATA[[att=1,r]Just coming off of the West African coast line is the storm complex we spotted over Kenya 4 days ago. This wave is one that needs to be watched. It would be Invest 98L on your bulletins.

Invest 97L is still out there and its track is flattening towards the west, but it is poorly developed.]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20842795</guid>
<pubDate>2008-07-24 14:56:21</pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>Personal Weather Stations</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20833988</link>
<description><![CDATA[I have been wanting to get a personal weather station that I can mount in my backyard that is wireless and can interface with my computer so that I can monitor the data remotely. (wow that was a run on sentence) I have looked at several sites and there are many to choose from. Does anyone have any recommendations for a starter kit? I don't want to spend allot of money.
--
#!/usr/bin/perl
print "Hello, World!\n";]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20833988</guid>
<pubDate>2008-07-22 22:28:21</pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>Severe Weather Forecast Discussion July 25</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20843583</link>
<description><![CDATA[433 PM EDT Thu. July 24, 2008
 

Mesoscales occurring early across the mid-Mississippi Valley  will be aided by a warm advection nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet.  The cells are forecast to weaken  during the morning.  A moist air mass in its wake with dew points reaching the low 70s along with steep lapse rates will result in an unstable air mass ahead of a cold front. 

Convection will be likely along the front into the Missouri Valley as frontal convergence and height falls and a trough will destabilize the atmosphere. A few cells may produce large hail and damaging winds.
--
My Bloggs,
http://www.insidetheie.com/ http://earthlogii.blogspot.com/ http://vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/ 
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20843583</guid>
<pubDate>2008-07-24 16:58:47</pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>TD 09w.Guam</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20842745</link>
<description><![CDATA[[att=1,l]3. 
a. This is the first prognostic reasoning for TD 09w.
B. TD 09w is expected to track generally westward through tau 72
under the continued influence of the low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the system. The weak upper-level trough which had been 
inhibiting convection over the northern semi-Circle will continue
weakening and moving westward ahead of the disturbance allowing the
resulting broad, diffluent, easterly flow to provide a more favorable
upper level environment for development. A mild strengthening of the
steering ridge will induce a gradual increase in forward track speed,
as TD 09w intensifies slowly under enhanced outflow associated with
a continually improving upper level environment through tau 72.
C. After tau 72, the system will begin tracking northwestward towards
a weakness in the steering ridge as an approaching mid-level trough
moves off of Mainland China into the Yellow Sea. TD 09w is expected
to begin a steady weakening trend near tau 96 as land interaction
over Taiwan disrupts the structure of the storm. Beyond tau 96, a
decrease in ocean heat content over the waters of the Taiwan 
Strait coupled with increased land interaction will weaken the 
system significantly as it makes landfall over eastern China near tau
120. The dynamic aids are in good agreement with both the expected
track and intensities throughout the entire near-term and extended
forecast periods.
Forecast team: Delta//
nnnn

B. TD 09w is expected to track generally westward through tau 72
under the continued influence of the low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the system. The weak upper-level trough which had been 
inhibiting convection over the northern semi-Circle will continue
weakening and moving westward ahead of the disturbance allowing the
resulting broad, diffluent, easterly flow to provide a more favorable
upper level environment for development. A mild strengthening of the
steering ridge will induce a gradual increase in forward track speed,
as TD 09w intensifies slowly under enhanced outflow associated with
a continually improving upper level environment through tau 72.
C. After tau 72, the system will begin tracking northwestward towards
a weakness in the steering ridge as an approaching mid-level trough
moves off of Mainland China into the Yellow Sea. TD 09w is expected
to begin a steady weakening trend near tau 96 as land interaction
over Taiwan disrupts the structure of the storm. Beyond tau 96, a
decrease in ocean heat content over the waters of the Taiwan 
Strait coupled with increased land interaction will weaken the 
system significantly as it makes landfall over eastern China near tau
120. The dynamic aids are in good agreement with both the expected
track and intensities throughout the entire near-term and extended
forecast periods.
Forecast team: Delta//
nnnn
--
My Bloggs,
http://www.insidetheie.com/ http://earthlogii.blogspot.com/ http://vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/ 
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20842745</guid>
<pubDate>2008-07-24 14:48:05</pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>Invest 97L Congo West Coast</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20827466</link>
<description><![CDATA[[att=1,l]This storm was over Kenya 3 days ago and has now existed the West coast of the Africa and is moving WWW towards the Leeward Islands 1800 miles away.

This storm if it holds together will track into the southern Caribbean on one track, other tracks have a Florida Strike. Of course that is two weeks away so tracking is just beginning.]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20827466</guid>
<pubDate>2008-07-21 19:46:34</pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>Invest 96 TS CRISTOBAL</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20797985</link>
<description><![CDATA[We are watching a low drifting just off of Tampa Bay Florida which could attain tropical status by tomorrow evening. 

The Low's center, which is ill-defined at the this time, but could push onshore giving Florida several inches of much needed rain and then move slowly north over Georgia and up the east coast of the southern Atlantic States dropping as much as 10 inches of rain in many areas.

gdh-hinghamwx-wcf-1
--
My Bloggs,
http://www.insidetheie.com/ http://earthlogii.blogspot.com/ http://vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/ 
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20797985</guid>
<pubDate>2008-07-15 23:53:51</pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>5-Day Weather Forecast Discussion July 22-26</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20827363</link>
<description><![CDATA[534 PM EDT Mon. July 21, 2008
 
Short Term
 
The pattern during this period features a trough off the Northwest coast, a ridge over the Rockies, another trough is over the Great Lakes. 

 

An upper ridge over the west and the central Plains will cause hot temperatures.  Monsoonal moisture will cause scattered thunderstorms into the northern Rockies. Pacific energy will move into northern California and then lift northeast.  The air mass may cause showers and storms as the system tracks through. Tropical storm Dolly is forecast to deepen as it tracks to the Northwest.  This will likely cause heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across south Texas by Tuesday afternoon. A weak boundary extends from the Northeast into the central Plains is forecast to sink slowly southeast. The boundary separates a drier and cooler air mass across the Great Lakes and the northern Plains from a hot and humid air mass to the south. 

 

Long Term

 

During this period, the pattern will consist of a trough over the Northwest, a ridge over central North America and another trough across eastern North America. 

 

Dolly is forecast to affect south Texas and the Southeast early in the period with heavy rainfall. High pressure will cover much of the West with above normal temperatures. High pressure will sink south from central Canada and push a cold front south through the northern and central Plains duering the period with rain and possible storms. A front along the mid-Atlantic coast will cause rain and the possibility of heavy thunderstorms. 

 

Extended Long Term

 

The 5-HPA flow is forecast to be amplified with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge over the Southwest into the Plains.  A trough will be over the East. This will likely result in below normal heights over the East, the southern part of the nation, and the West coast.  Above normal heights will be found over the northern and central Rockies, into the Plains. Below normal temperatures are forecast across the East with above normal temperatures across the West. 
--
My Bloggs,
http://www.insidetheie.com/ http://earthlogii.blogspot.com/ http://vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/ 
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20827363</guid>
<pubDate>2008-07-21 19:24:39</pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>What&#x27;s this near Bermuda?</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20818412</link>
<description><![CDATA[I noticed this in satellite photos of Cristobal. It looks fairly tight and has a definite circulation. Yet the NWS says:  

2. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL [CONDITIONS] ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

I'm not a meteorologist, but I had a few courses in my undergrad days [Earth Science minor; long, long ago...]. This looked pretty healthy to me in the satellite animations, and I can't see anything 'unfavorable' developing in the GFS runs for the next 48 hours. Would anyone care to explain to me why the NHC doesn't think this will amount to anything?]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20818412</guid>
<pubDate>2008-07-19 22:01:38</pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>[SWX] Hurricane BERTHA</title>
<link>http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20707073</link>
<description><![CDATA[Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
June 27, 2008&#150; 7:00am PDT

It's that season for it. Cape Verde Season looks to start soon with a disturbance shortly moving off the Western Africa coast. This disturbance may be developing within the next 4-5 days so continue watch OWSweather's page for the latest updates.

K. MARTIN ]]></description>
<guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20707073</guid>
<pubDate>2008-06-27 10:04:34</pubDate>
</item>

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