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Stock Jocks Proven Clueless On FiOS
$24 billion investment didn't 'doom' Verizon after all...
by Karl Bode Friday 17-Apr-2009 tags: business · Op/Ed · cable · Verizon FiOS
Tipped by myokitis See Profile
When Verizon first announced their $24 billion fiber to the home project, there was no shortage of critics in the investment community, many of whom thought the act of future-proofing the carrier's network would somehow "doom" them. In reality, investors just didn't have the patience to wait for returns on the investments, analysts like Sanford Bernsteins's Craig Moffett taking every opportunity to thrash the carrier for actually upgrading from copper. In a NY Times piece we covered last summer, Moffett had this to say:

"If I were an auto dealer and I wanted to give people a Maserati for the price of a Volkswagen, I’d have some seriously happy customers," said Craig Moffett, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein. "My problem would be whether I could earn a decent return doing it."

Meanwhile, Moffett lauded Qwest for spending little on "next-generation" upgrades whose upstream speeds barely touch 900kbps, praising the carrier for realizing "there is no return to any of this stuff" so they "might as well run the business for cash." Of course as data has slowly trickled in from Verizon, it's been made very clear that the upgrade to FTTH was both essential and profitable. Of the three baby bells and their varying degrees of next-generation ambition, you'll get one guess as to which one has the brightest financial future:

Verizon is the only former large U.S. incumbent local exchange carrier that has positive revenue growth within its consumer wireline segment, indicating, in the estimation of Fitch Ratings analysts, that the company has been most successful thus far, relative to the other large ILECs, in transforming its wireline business. . .Of the three largest ILECs, Qwest has experienced the most rapid deterioration of consumer wireline revenues, with fourth-quarter consumer wireline revenues declining 7.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Weird, huh Mr. Moffett? In addition, Qwest is considering selling their fiber long-haul network (quite possibly to Verizon), and there is a good chance that Qwest may not even exist as a company a year from now. Meanwhile, Verizon's cost of fiber installs per home continues to drop, and their new franchise deals with DC, Philadelphia and NYC -- combined with their adoption of Corning bendable fiber for MDUs, means the numbers probably only get better from here on out as the telco pushes into more dense, urban areas.

It's an interesting reminder that what the stock jocks want (short term returns for their clients) quite often doesn't gel with what's really best for either the companies involved, or the consumers they serve.

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NbWY1

join:2003-05-23
Columbia, MD

Stocks

Jim Cramer likes FiOS, I like FiOS
flyingjoey

join:2005-11-07
Jersey City, NJ

Re: Stocks

I work at CNBC and I see Cramer walking around, and in the cafeteria. He's not rude, but he's a freaken idiot.

Don't forget he's no more than an entertainer.

Nerdtalker
Working Hard, Or Hardly Working?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-02-18
Tucson, AZ

Re: Stocks

Amen. Anyone worth their salt knows that everything he talks about on CNBC is hogwash.

By the time it's on TV, the market has already priced the news.

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
Cramer was also the one that said 'Do not dump your Bear Stearns stock'... one week before they went bust.

If there's a GOOD time for Verizon to attempt to deploy FiOS... its now. During a recession, labor rates are cheap, lots of workers, and possible government assistance (business doesn't care where it gets its money from)

i1me2ao
Premium
join:2001-03-03
TEXAS

Re: Stocks

please show me one that has not picked the wrong investment??

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

Re: Stocks

Touche... I don't think that there is one person that has never picked a wrong investment once.
Cramer happened to boldly tell people that it was silly to move their shares from Bear Stearns

»www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8

--
Canada = Hollywood North
ashworth

join:2001-10-06
Pittsburgh, PA
VZ is and has been on a scheduled deployment of FiOS to areas it doesn't serve for over 2 years(recession or not). I might get lucky within the next year to get FiOS myself(CO on schedule). By the way, don't see VZ taking any government handouts.
Austinloop

join:2001-08-19
Austin, TX
kudos:1

Why do we pay attention

Why do we pay attention to this so called analysis t, Moffett, same story every time he opens his mouth.

N3OGH
Certified GLG-20
Premium
join:2003-11-11
Philly burbs
kudos:1
Reviews:
·Verizon FiOS

Re: Why do we pay attention

I bet 2 years ago this guy was touting the advantages of Credit default swaps and Mortgage backed derivatives
--
Petty people are disproportionably corrupted by petty power…
Austinloop

join:2001-08-19
Austin, TX
kudos:1

Re: Why do we pay attention

Without a doubt.
Pv8man

join:2008-07-24
Hammond, IN

Re: Why do we pay attention

Can you say "Corporate Puppet" ???
patcat88

join:2002-04-05
Jamaica, NY
kudos:1
said by N3OGH:

I bet 2 years ago this guy was touting the advantages of Credit default swaps and Mortgage backed derivatives
But CDSes are an excellent investment, its like going to Vegas and play Roulette with an insurance company guaranteeing your investment in the game. Excellent for you, not so much for the insurance company. Not my problem the premium doesn't remotely cover the losses.
Kearnstd
Elf Wizard
Premium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
remember it was stock jocks who said trading Mortgages based on questionable credit customers was a good idea. and look where that got us.
--
[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports
AstroBoy

join:2008-08-08
Parkville, MD

which one has the brightest financial future:

I think fibre optics are "brighter" than copper.

cableties
Premium
join:2005-01-27

Re: which one has the brightest financial future:

I did and still am doing well on fiber

(GLW ftw!)
--
Weeeeeeee!

boogi man

join:2001-11-13
Jacksonville, FL

wonderment

i wonder at this point if there is any question in anyone minds about why the economy is where it is.

with the kind of advise the 'stock jocks' dish out it's a wonder to me that it lasted as long as it did

Boogeyman
Drive it like you stole it
Premium
join:2002-12-17
Panama City, FL
Reviews:
·Comcast

Re: wonderment

2 out of 2 boogi/ey men agree, "Stock jocks" are morons.

After this, every company that has been taking advice from people who only care about stocks should take a look at Verizon, take a look at Vz's competition and then take a look at the economy. If all you care about is making as much money as possible tomorrow, instead of a steady stream over a month, you might not have too many people left who want to give you money.
--
Im Your Boogeyman, Thats What I Am

boogi man

join:2001-11-13
Jacksonville, FL

Re: wonderment

werd!!

Simba7

join:2003-03-24
Billings, MT

I'm not surprised..

Fiber *IS* the future after all. Verizon actually did something right for a change (I still don't like their wireless division).

Now.. If the other companies would actually upgrade to a better technology, then maybe we wouldn't have the constant "limitations" we have.

Sure, DSL was great.. 10 YEARS AGO.. How old is the traditional copper pair?
--
Bresnan 15M/1M|MyWS[P4HT@4.01GHz,2GB RAM,2x1TB HDDs,WinXP]|WifeWS[P4@2.4GHz,1GB RAM,60GB HDD,WinXP]|Router[2xP3@1GHz,640MB RAM,18GB HDD,Allied Telesyn AT-2560FX,Kingston KNE100TX,2xDigital DE504,Compaq NC3131,iPro/1000DP,Blitz BWI715,Gentoo Linux]

insomniac84

join:2002-01-03
Schererville, IN

1 edit

Re: I'm not surprised..

said by Simba7:

Fiber *IS* the future after all. Verizon actually did something right for a change (I still don't like their wireless division).

Now.. If the other companies would actually upgrade to a better technology, then maybe we wouldn't have the constant "limitations" we have.

Sure, DSL was great.. 10 YEARS AGO.. How old is the traditional copper pair?
Companies are too used to purposely trickling out products because they are afraid of one day running out of products to offer.

Some one at AT&T probably said if we moved to fiber optic now, we will pay more now and won't get the returns for years. So they decided to upgrade to adsl2 which can barely offer internet and tv and use that first. Then they will move to fiber. At which time the costs will be cheaper. But odds are it will cost them more in the long run since they had to invest in two technologies and not just one. And in the interim, they are going to lose customers in any market with competition. Since cable companies can offer faster speeds and customers don't have to put up with line issues and distance limits which can make dsl crappy.
vinnie97
Premium
join:2003-12-05
US
kudos:1

Re: I'm not surprised..

AT&T and TWC are like 2 peas in a pod...resistant to upgrading their networks and ready to nickle and dime the customer in order to "eventually" fund such upgrades, so areas serviced by this duopoly are in for a long slow haul.
twill1989

join:2009-01-03
Goose Creek, SC
AT&T's Uverse isn't adsl2...it's VDSL. The two technologies are different.

insomniac84

join:2002-01-03
Schererville, IN

1 edit

Re: I'm not surprised..

said by twill1989:

AT&T's Uverse isn't adsl2...it's VDSL. The two technologies are different.
Whatever it is called, it is still barely fast enough for what they try to cram on it and cable companies can easily beat it. Then if you have a line issue creep up, you may lose service forever if they can't or won't fix it. And many people can't get the benefits of faster dsl because of distance limitations.

Fiber solves all the distance and bandwidth issues.
jimbo2150

join:2004-05-10
Youngstown, OH
said by insomniac84:

Some one at AT&T probably said if we moved to fiber optic now, we will pay more now and won't get the returns for years. So they decided to upgrade to adsl2 which can barely offer internet and tv and use that first. Then they will move to fiber. At which time the costs will be cheaper. But odds are it will cost them more in the long run since they had to invest in two technologies and not just one. And in the interim, they are going to lose customers in any market with competition. Since cable companies can offer faster speeds and customers don't have to put up with line issues and distance limits which can make dsl crappy.
Of course, but they were expecting to see huge drops in price by letting others move to fiber then they would switch down the road. Well the price is dropping but not as fast as they expected (because they didn't jump in too). So now they are supporting old DSL in most markets, VDSL in some new markets, fiber in select new housing builds, and I think some of their customers are asking for more speed than the 6mb/s they have offered for years. Unfortunately the only thing they can do with VDSL is bonded pair which is still in the lab! Not to mention it would pretty much mean running 2 lines to most customers meaning twice the copper, and probably even thicker lines on the polls.

To me, it seems that not switching to fiber was a big mistake in the long run (and possibly in the short run).
--

- "Techie" Jim
radougherty

join:1999-07-23
Austin, TX
I hope the big brains at AT&T that came up with U-Verse to make their stock holders happy get booted out with no parachute when they find out they need to do FTTP anyway and wasted all that money on U-Verse hardware.
neufuse

join:2006-12-06
Indiana, PA

every time...

I hear an anaylst say do this or don't do that, I do the opposite, and It's worked out quite well for me financialy so far.

45071419

join:2006-07-30

Analysts are idiots

Analysts are idiots, and having an economy based on emotions (stocks + people who believe the "analysts" who have their own agenda) is a joke.
Josimars

join:2001-04-24
Port Chester, NY

Re: Analysts are idiots

No not all analysts are idiots but you have some like this Sanford Bernstein guy craig moffatt who have no clue about the industries they are covering and thats the problem. I am not a finance expert but I would sure do a better job analysing the telecom industry than this guy. Every thing he writes about the exact opposite of what the says happens. I think I should apply for his job

Cheese
Premium
join:2003-10-26
Naples, FL
kudos:1

Can't make money if the business doesn't grow.....

And that includes fixing/upgrading current products!

Simba7

join:2003-03-24
Billings, MT

1 edit

Re: Can't make money if the business doesn't grow.....

I agree.

It seems the business model is "Use the same technology over and over again.. and never upgrade to better stuff.." They expect to make money with this? There's only so much you can do with the century-old copper pair.

Hell, even Cable isn't that old.. and with DOCSIS 3.0 out, speeds will get better. Not to mention more reliable over long distances.

I do admit that DSL and Cable will have to go with Fiber eventually.. But that'll mean more options for the consumer. It'd be as simple as plugging in a fiber to (insert your providers name here) port since everyone's using Fiber.

Sure, you probably can't run DOCSIS through a copper pair.. and you probably can't run DSL through a Coax. But if everyone switched to Fiber, there could be a universal standard. That would be better competition for everyone.

I wonder when the ol' Copper Pair will finally be rendered totally unusable. It's already obsolete.
--
Bresnan 15M/1M|MyWS[P4HT@4.01GHz,2GB RAM,2x1TB HDDs,WinXP]|WifeWS[P4@2.4GHz,1GB RAM,60GB HDD,WinXP]|Router[2xP3@1GHz,640MB RAM,18GB HDD,Allied Telesyn AT-2560FX,Kingston KNE100TX,2xDigital DE504,Compaq NC3131,iPro/1000DP,Blitz BWI715,Gentoo Linux]
Kearnstd
Elf Wizard
Premium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
copper pair is dead.

Verizon went with FTTH so they would have a product worthy of fighting cable with. DSL is a deadend tech thanks to its stupid short distance restrictions compared to DOCSIS and Fiber.
--
[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports
JPL
Premium
join:2007-04-04
Downingtown, PA
kudos:1

Re: Can't make money if the business doesn't grow.....

said by Kearnstd:

copper pair is dead.

Verizon went with FTTH so they would have a product worthy of fighting cable with. DSL is a deadend tech thanks to its stupid short distance restrictions compared to DOCSIS and Fiber.
Absolutely right. What if Verizon DIDN'T do FiOS? Would DSL be able to compete with cable HSI, especially now that DOCSIS 3.0 is starting to get rolled out? And with all the bundling that's going on, would Verizon be able to hold onto their existing landline customers? Or would those customers bundle their voice service in with their cable TV and HSI service? Judging by the bundling that's going on out there, I think the answer is obvious. FiOS gives Verizon the ability to compete. Not only does it move them into the video area (which is hugely profitable)... not only does it give them the ablity to more than compete with cable for HSI... but it gives them the ability to retain landline customers when they bundle in their services.

I've never understood why analysts like this one couldn't see that. If Verizon didn't do this, they'd be cratering right now. Their only profitable area would be their wireless business. I don't think Verizon really had much of a choice - it was either do something like this, or die.

Bit
Premium
join:2009-02-19
00000

Awe...

Poor greedy short sighted investors can't run Verizon into the ground for a quick buck. My violin is playing for them.

ThrowDemsOut
If you can't convince 'em, confuse 'em
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Mullica Hill, NJ
kudos:4

What the 3 companies stock has done last 2 yrs


Performance last 2 yrs


Performance YTD

All of the telcos are down over a 2 yr timeframe, Verizon down the least.
Only Qwest is not negative Year to Date.

jmn1207
Premium
join:2000-07-19
Reston, VA

Re: What the 3 companies stock has done last 2 yrs

Should I just exist to make money? I don't need a home, a car, or dry clothes? A homeless person panhandling for change on the corner shows a profit at the end of the day. After all my bills are paid, they might even have more to spend then I do. Still, I think my current situation and future are much brighter.
neufuse

join:2006-12-06
Indiana, PA
and over the past couple years we've been in a recession... so I don't trust much of the data.. wonder what it looks like if you "corrected" it for recessionary times

cpsycho

join:2008-06-03
HarperLand

Cablecos announce next gen coax

We the cablecos are upgrading the coax cable to hybred coax cable. We are putting fibre into our coax.

The benefits: It looks pretty and we are upgrading our network to handle this hybred coax. It will increase our stock prices. We will now be ready for the future.

The cons: ("wispers to the stock jocks" dont worry we are only gluing wheat straw to the coax cable. Dont worry people are dumb and will not understand anything we are doing.)

Nothing is bad you get great service.

See 6 replies to this post
iansltx

join:2007-02-19
Golden, CO
kudos:2
Reviews:
·Comcast
·Verizon Online DSL

Go VZ!

While I don't like their wireles network that much ('spensive!) FiOS rocks. If FiOS came into this area (replacing DSLAMs with fiber panels anyone?) and Verizon deemed this a competitive enough market to launch 50/20 for $90, guess what? My internet ARPU would go up by nearly 50%!

Fiber pays. Qwest can't sell more than a $65-a-month home product over copper, and their technology, though just rolled out, is pushed pretty much to the limit. The only upgrade possible would be to actually PROVIDE the speed they're advertising, aver overhead!

Customers aren't dumb. Fiber investments can be recouped quickly when you're running triple play over the system. Especially when, due to the quality of all triple play components, a user is spending $30 per month more than a competitor on extra packages etc. I hear FiOS TV quality is fantastic.

Bottom line: if you're looking for a stock price hike in short order, riding off of old technology, you should probably be shot, drawn, quartered and dragged behind a '57 Chevy. You're one of the people who are holding the U.S. of A. back to seventeenth (?) place in the world as far as 'net access goes.

Heck, rural operators are using fiber now whenever possible. Guess what? They're in the biz to make money as well. Winstream has 24/1.5 fiber, CenturyTel has 15/768, Embarq has 10/896. Not FiOS to be sure but you can't offer WS's package over copper. Guess what? It'll net them customers. That's a good thing, tired old qwest. What's not so good? Everyone nott recomending you because they can only get 3 Mbps speeds where they are...for $46 a month!
knkayotte

join:2001-02-02
Camp Verde, AZ

Verizon, help us!

Verizon is turning into a juggernaut, I hope they swallow up Qwest and pull us out of the dark ages.

k7baw
De gustibus non est disputandum
Premium
join:2001-11-25
Phoenix, AZ
Reviews:
·Charter
·Cox HSI

Qwest Listens to Wrong People

Qwest won't even upgrade the 30 year old copper in wealthy neighborhoods where they could sell more services. They are too busy installing new copper in the outlying developments where 90% of the homes are now in foreclosure. Must be the high altitude in Denver has killed their lamentably small brains.
--
My perception is REALITY
RayW
Premium
join:2001-09-01
Layton, UT
kudos:1

Re: Qwest Listens to Wrong People

said by k7baw:

Qwest won't even upgrade the 30 year old copper in wealthy neighborhoods where they could sell more services. They are too busy installing new copper in the outlying developments where 90% of the homes are now in foreclosure. Must be the high altitude in Denver has killed their lamentably small brains.
And they prefer to file lawsuits and buy legislature votes to prevent anyone else from installing a better system.
--
I am not lost, I find myself every time.

Wall Street Analysts, why??????

The last sentence should add "and stock holders"

Short-term gains are not allows the best for stock holders either. Sometimes patience pays of for them too.
Sammer

join:2005-12-22
Canonsburg, PA

1 edit

Re: Wall Street Analysts, why??????

said by ThinkLongTerm :

The last sentence should add "and stock holders"

Short-term gains are not allows the best for stock holders either. Sometimes patience pays of for them too.
Some stock analysts and and some stock-holders only care about short term gains. The best way to achieve that is to milk a "cash cow" until it runs dry and the old landline gal is clearly past her prime. Of course any business that doesn't invest in it's future will eventually see it's current "cash cow" run dry with nothing to replace her. FiOS is Verizon's future "cash cow" what will be Qwest's?
dynodb
Premium,VIP
join:2004-04-21
Minneapolis, MN

Ridiculous

Comparing Verizon and Qwest while crediting FiOS for Verizon's better financials is completely dishonest. I'd say stupid, but Karl knows better.

FiOS isn't making Verizon money, wireless is. FiOS is costing them money, at least for the time being. Qwest lacks it's own wireless division, and as pretty much everyone who's been paying attention knows, this is what has hurt them.

At some point in the future, FiOS may prove to be a winner for Verizon, but that time has not yet arrived.
Sammer

join:2005-12-22
Canonsburg, PA

1 edit

Re: Ridiculous

said by dynodb:

FiOS isn't making Verizon money, wireless is. FiOS is costing them money, at least for the time being. Qwest lacks it's own wireless division, and as pretty much everyone who's been paying attention knows, this is what has hurt them.
What would have been Qwest's wireless division was sold to Vodafone in 1999. Less than a year later the former Bell Atlantic / NYNEX and Vodafone began operations of a joint venture known as Verizon Wireless. Surely some stock analysts thought that sale was a good idea at the time.
Vesentac

join:2002-05-10
Chantilly, VA
said by dynodb:

Comparing Verizon and Qwest while crediting FiOS for Verizon's better financials is completely dishonest. I'd say stupid, but Karl knows better.

FiOS isn't making Verizon money, wireless is. FiOS is costing them money, at least for the time being. Qwest lacks it's own wireless division, and as pretty much everyone who's been paying attention knows, this is what has hurt them.

At some point in the future, FiOS may prove to be a winner for Verizon, but that time has not yet arrived.
Finally some common sense talking. Qwest losing wireless definitely has hurt them a lot. They really cant really draw in capital from thier existing products and they cant take much more debt either. In addition to having sparse markets and the Nacchio fiasco, I think they can only stay afloat for so long. I'm very interested to see where Qwest ends up.

The ROI on FIOS is coming though. I think Verizon does have a bright future ahead.

Xero

@212.35.75.x

upload

what bites me is that fios isnt 1:1
fiber should be about 20/20, 50/50 or 100/100 etc
i care about the upload more than the download.
Natoma

join:1999-08-30
Brooklyn, NY

Re: upload

Uhm, FIOS is 1:1 on the 20/20 package. 50/20, no. 20/5, no. 20/20, yes.

Raphion

join:2000-10-14
Samsara
FiOS has a 20/20 package here in florida for $65 a month.

Technogeez
Agape in amazement.
Premium
join:2007-01-20
Reviews:
·AT&T U-Verse
·Verizon FiOS

Jealous

People who bash FiOS have never experienced it. Those who have it (and can endure VZ's notorious customer service) just sit back and smile... FiOS is a winner, and when it shows up here, I'll be back on it in a heartbeat.
--
Read your contract and TOS before signing anything.

Plattsburgh NY

@charter.com

Investors to blame

We lag behind other nations when it comes to broadband simply because the investors don't invest long term anymore. Everyone wants a huge return overnight so the companies are afraid to upgrade for the long term because of the initial investment costs and fear of retribution from said investors. At least VZ isn't cowtowing to short term investors. Neither should the other companies.

Paploona

@telus.net

craig is an epic fail need i say more

If you can't see the effect of increasing efficiency and being able to deliver phone/tv/internet/VPN/etc all over one line with a lower maintenance cost and no need to scale back users bandwidth with stupid limits just so isps can use x bandwidth to run their crappy IPTV services over old obsolete infrastructure. If you wanna be the all in one package you can't use shitty patchwork solutions like u-verse. Go big or go home.

I bet this guy thinks aig and bear sterns are how companies are ment to be run. Scamming the little guys so as to increase a quarterly... This guy prob thinks we should all use aol cause it has America in the title so it has to be number one...

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