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Exaflood Pseudo-Scientists Need A New Gimmick
Scaring children and puppies is getting tired...
by Karl Bode 08:46AM Wednesday Oct 14 2009
Earlier this month we discussed how "research firm" Nemertes Research had returned once again with their Chicken-Little prognostications that the Internet would soon start facing an Exaflood, or Internet capacity collapse. As we argued then, the entire Exaflood idea is a myth cooked up by carriers to help scare lawmakers and the public into believing that bandwidth is a dangerously limited and precious resource, and if you don't give carriers what they want (the right to metered billing, fewer consumer protection laws, no neutrality laws, removed price controls) the Internet will explode and you'll all be sorry.

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Nemertes co-founder Johna Till Johnson has done a particularly stellar job consistently writing editorials for Network World that sound scary, but aren't based in any perceivable real world science. Her latest unscientific screed attempts to argue that network neutrality laws would result in the collapse of entirely unrelated peering arrangements, something we argued made little to no sense. Ars Technica's Nate Anderson pens an article that essentially mirrors our two week old post:
What's most odd about Johnson's argument about network neutrality is that she admits that this is default network behavior right now. And while she frets about the huge growth of Internet traffic, the reality is that the growth rates have been much faster in the past (doubling every year or faster) --and the Internet abides! As for ISPs not having the money to invest in enough infrastructure to keep up with demand, well... just take a look an ISP balance sheets. Tremendous profits are being made now, even as cable operators roll out DOCSIS 3.0 tech and boost download speeds to 50Mbps or 100Mbps.
One amusing thing is that every time Johnson opens her mouth to let loose a stream of unscientific fear mongering policy gibberish, other Nemertes analysts come to our comment section to post more reasoned policy positions that almost sound like science, while lamenting that Nemertes positions are being distorted. But if they're so concerned with Nemertes being taken seriously, they might want to talk to Johnson about toning down the nonsense. They might also inform her how "scientists" let the data dictate policy positions -- not the other way around.

topics flat nest 


AT&T agrees!

That's why they want you to own the iPhone!


El Quintron
I dunno, lemme check my trollodex
Etobicoke, ON

Keep your astroturfer list up to date

Good stuff Karl, I'm glad you keep reminding me of groups I sometimes forget.

Who could blame me seeing what kind of trash they publish, but keeping them under scrutiny is necessary.

Proud American and Infidel since 1968.

ok, ok, ok.

the real question behind all this is what Telecom/Cableco is paying off Johna to write all this pro-business research?
I've come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass and i'm all outta bubblegum.

Mr Fel
Louisville, KY

2 edits

Re: ok, ok, ok.

Easy: Any amount is too much.

Edit: Silly typos

Portland, ME
probably more than one.they are all assholes who would love to stiff us all of as much as they can take.
Mr Matt

Eustis, FL
·Embarq Now Centu..

Nemertes should get her head out of her rectum!

If Nemertes would read DSL Reports on a regular basis she might have read this article:

»Arbor: Tier One Network Traffic Way Down

I guess Nemertes Research is another corporate sock puppet spreading the ISP's Bologna. It is time that organizations presenting fraudulent information be required to disclose who sponsors their operation.

Arlington, VA

Facts?!? What facts?

"They might also inform her how 'scientists' let the data dictate policy positions -- not the other way around."

Unfortunately, the trend over the past decade is to take any science out of science policy. I mean, you can't let facts get in the way of a desired outcome, now, can you?

I want to share my appreciation of out-ing the astoturfers. We've put up with the nonsence for long enough. I also appreciate having light shined on who pays these so-called analysts.

You know, I want to be an anlysist. I can get paid to spin and print anything, facts and ethics be darned! I can be wrong most of the time and not lose my job! What a great gig.



Re: Facts?!? What facts?

You know its more difficult to fabricate lies than you may think especially when the science supports the other side. I would not want to be that poor analyst (peon) sitting in a conference room playing proverbial chess with science because their boss has been told by their boss to come up with something that will please the top boss.

You have to be very clever in your language to get away with it. I don't know how they do it.

These people should be in jail. I think hindering human kind's progress should be punishable by law. Stone or whip them as opposed to incarceration, incarceration is too high tech for these people.

Louisville, CO

It's sad, really...

You work really hard in school. You make good decisions, you take hard classes, you manage to achieve a pretty good record of grades and achievements. But you're on the outside; you don't make the same networking connections others do. You find yourself left behind as the cream is skimmed off the top and plucked away for top slots in government, the corporate world, and so on.

But you want it; you desire it; you feel this sense of entitlement that you -- like them, like the smart, honorable ones -- deserve the chance to set policy, to attach your name you ideas and have people pay attention to you.

But what are your options? Through chance, perhaps an introduction at a party (the sort of introduction you wish you'd received 10 years ago), you become aware of organizations that exist to try and muscle their way into the corporate and government worlds from the outside. "It's brilliant!" you think. The boys and girls who left you behind so many years ago will now pay YOU to say important-sounding things, to stand in front of the microphone and let your voice be heard! Now people will recognize you for who you are!

...and indeed, we do. Out-classed, out-maneuvered, and exposed as paid whores, charlatans, and liars. Not by the elites above you you so desperately try to emulate, but by us regular shmoes just trying to put two and two together.

Dallas, TX

Re: It's sad, really...

said by andrewbw:

You find yourself left behind as the cream is skimmed off the top and plucked away for top slots in government, the corporate world, and so on.
That is the sad truth. People are hired only if their ideology follows the cooperation's ideology. Kind of like the way FCC commissioners make decisions that pave the way to a nice job as a lobbyist when they get leave their government job.

Looking back over my life, I could be making $200,000 a year if I played my cards right. I might have been probably was a slut when I was younger, but I was never a whore.

Montreal, QC

what's in a name?

don't know if there are any Hungarians out there, but you can split the name 'nemertes' into 2 words, 'nem' (which means no) and 'ertes' (which means understanding)

google translate (hungarian to english) translates
'nem ertes' into 'incompetence'

...sounds like they got it right