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Wi-Fi to Overtake Wired by 2015
As Global IP Traffic Heads for 966 Exabytes by 2015
Cisco's Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast annually tries to predict usage trends, this latest study suggesting that global IP traffic will almost reach the zettabyte threshold (966 exabytes) by the end of 2015. The report offers a myriad of interesting statistical bits, noting that Wi-Fi will overtake wired traffic by 2015, eventually consuming 37.2 Exabytes of data worldwide per month. Not too surprisingly, video will be the primary growth driver, making up 62% of consumer Internet traffic in 2015, up from 40% in 2010. Mobile traffic will make up 8% of overall global IP traffic in 2015. Last year, the average household consumed 17.1 GB of data per month, a total Cisco expects to be around 61.8 GB per month in 2015.
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Network Guy
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Network Guy

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Does this mean CCNAs will be in demand?

Hopefully so... I'm working on it...

Modus
I hate smartassery on forums
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us

Modus

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Re: Does this mean CCNAs will be in demand?

some how i doubt it simply because everyone has it these days
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Network Guy
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Network Guy

Premium Member

Re: Does this mean CCNAs will be in demand?

Meh... Well if not CCNAs then CCNPs with focus on security.

Modus
I hate smartassery on forums
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join:2005-05-02
us

Modus

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Re: Does this mean CCNAs will be in demand?

now that sounds better
TheRogueX
join:2003-03-26
Springfield, MO

TheRogueX

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Wi-Fi? Really?

Save for devices that don't have ports for the cables (mobile phones, tablets, handheld gaming devices) and the occasional trip away from the cable with a portable device (laptop, netbook), who in their right mind would ever use Wi-Fi? Especially for video?

I like my packet loss to be 0% all the time, thank you. And I like low latency. And higher throughput. And better security.

I dunno, maybe I'm old fashioned.

Edrick
I aspire to tell the story of a lifetime
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Woburn, MA

Edrick

Premium Member

Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

The average user finds it too complicated to have cords and all that. They'd rather connect to wireless.
Joe12345678
join:2003-07-22
Des Plaines, IL

Joe12345678

Member

Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

and with more use there will be more over lap / interference.

FFH5
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Tavistock NJ
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FFH5

Premium Member

Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

said by Joe12345678:

and with more use there will be more over lap / interference.

But newer routers/APs support multiple radios. Set up each radio with separate SSIDs & channels and they can support many devices streaming high speed HD video. My current router supports 2 radios. I would not be surprised to see routers in the future support 3 or 4. Enough for almost all homes.
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patcat88
join:2002-04-05
Jamaica, NY
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patcat88

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Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

And how would more radios help when you have 25 APs with 4 bars on a scan, let alone all the 3/2/1 bar APs?

bbeesley
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bbeesley to Joe12345678

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to Joe12345678
said by Joe12345678:

and with more use there will be more over lap / interference.

The report doesn't say "Wi-fi" it says, "wireless"
"Traffic from wireless devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2015"

There is an important distinction here. Cisco isn't saying that everything will be 802.11(x) but that we will be accessing the Internet from predominately wireless versus wired devices...this is inclusive of both wi-fi, mobile and other technologies

btw, I tend to agree - I ended up writing a paper for a class on "Emerging Wireless Technologies" a year ago where I proposed that the future soon held that we would be using wireless versus fixed access on the majority of our devices

rebus9
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Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

said by bbeesley:

The report doesn't say "Wi-fi" it says, "wireless"
"Traffic from wireless devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2015"

I find the topic interesting, because wireless only talks about the consumer end of the connection. You don't see wireless at the datacenter level from where all these exabytes of content are served.

So in that context, it's probably fair to say that deployments of ever-faster fiber links are growing at a rate equal to, or greater than, wireless.

bbeesley
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bbeesley

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Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

said by rebus9:

I find the topic interesting, because wireless only talks about the consumer end of the connection. You don't see wireless at the datacenter level from where all these exabytes of content are served.

So in that context, it's probably fair to say that deployments of ever-faster fiber links are growing at a rate equal to, or greater than, wireless.

This is true....Fujitsu just released their 100G transponder and muxponder cards for their Packet Optical Platform »www.fujitsu.com/us/news/ ··· 502.html and already the industry is starting to say that the next gen optics should skip 400G and jump right to 1T »www.lightreading.com/doc ··· lr_cable

Still, I think that we will begin to see a paradigm shift from predominantly wired connections at the edge to wireless....the performance of LTE and WiFi is now sufficient to stream HD video so the game will quickly change over the next 5 years or so to the point where we are walking around with devices that are always connected to the Internet and are capable of giving us access to any of our content, including video.

rebus9
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Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

said by bbeesley:

This is true....Fujitsu just released their 100G transponder and muxponder cards for their Packet Optical Platform »www.fujitsu.com/us/news/ ··· 502.html and already the industry is starting to say that the next gen optics should skip 400G and jump right to 1T »www.lightreading.com/doc ··· lr_cable

Sweet, isn't it? 1 Tbps-- who would have ever dreamed about such speeds back in 1996 when a T-1 was considered fast. Verizon successfully field tested a 100G link carrying live traffic back in 2007, using fiber originally built for 10 Gbps. I've long wondered why carriers didn't skip 40G completely and move straight to 100G, since it was little more than a change of endpoint optics. Cost, sure. But a year or two at Nx10G would have given enough capacity without investing in 40G optics. Once more capacity than Nx10G was needed, 100G prices would have come into line.

said by bbeesley:

Still, I think that we will begin to see a paradigm shift from predominantly wired connections at the edge to wireless....the performance of LTE and WiFi is now sufficient to stream HD video so the game will quickly change over the next 5 years or so to the point where we are walking around with devices that are always connected to the Internet and are capable of giving us access to any of our content, including video.

I agree, and that concerns me. Wireless has become the new cash cow and the carriers are milking out every drop. And when the cow is bone dry, they find other ways of wringing a few extra drops out. Sixty bucks for 5 GB of data? Puuhhhh-leeeze. Ripoff, ripoff, ripoff. The only carrier doing business fairly, and that is a relative term to say the least, is Clear with their unlimited (albiet, throttled) service at a reasonable price.

My concern is Clear going bankrupt, leaving the old guard (Verizon, Sprint, and the great satan known as AT&T) to hold the market hostage.

Once everyone has gone wireless with devices they "just can't live without", the wireless carriers will own their souls.

As for me, I have an iSpot with Clear for my iPod Touch, but everything else in the house runs on good old fashioned, secure, reliable Gig-E copper.

Smith6612
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Smith6612 to Edrick

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... and yet, many people have more trouble connecting devices either due to messing up a security key, device incompatibility, or extreme Interference, or even one of the radios failing. Wired, most issues involve a bad cable or a bad switch. Maybe a dead NIC. No nonsense of messing around with incompatible radios, security types, widths, channels, or wireless modes.

I would have to say it's more of a convenience, honestly. I do raise attention to those users using Wireless with the router right on top of their PC though. I tell people to maintain at least 1-2 walls of distance or 15 feet if they're going to use Wireless. Any more and for some routers, the signal generally comes in too hot and slows down more than it already is.
patcat88
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patcat88

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Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

1 hollow drywall wall, and I'm down from 16 mbitps (LOS to AP) to 11 mbitps on G. Measured with iperf.
TheMG
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TheMG to Edrick

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to Edrick
said by Edrick:

The average user finds it too complicated to have cords and all that. They'd rather connect to wireless.

I agree with that statement. The average user prefers mobility and reducing "unsightly" wires.

Power users however, like the reliability and performance of wired.

I won't give up my gigabit ethernet for wireless any time soon!
patcat88
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patcat88

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Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

said by TheMG:

said by Edrick:

The average user finds it too complicated to have cords and all that. They'd rather connect to wireless.

I agree with that statement. The average user prefers mobility and reducing "unsightly" wires.

The average user couldn't run an ethernet cord between rooms if it was to save their kid from falling into a volcano. The only time average users use ethernet in their house, is because the house was built in the 2000s with modern structured wiring by the developer who built the subdivision, usually with something like this cable »awapps.commscope.com/cat ··· id=34481 to each room.

Smith6612
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Smith6612 to TheRogueX

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You're not old fashioned at all. You're simply supporting the best, most dependable way of connecting
TheRogueX
join:2003-03-26
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TheRogueX

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Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

said by Smith6612:

You're not old fashioned at all. You're simply supporting the best, most dependable way of connecting

Heh. Why yes, yes I am.

ArrayList
DevOps
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ArrayList to TheRogueX

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i stream bluray rips of 1080p video over wifi all the time.

David
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1 edit

David to TheRogueX

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said by TheRogueX:

Save for devices that don't have ports for the cables (mobile phones, tablets, handheld gaming devices) and the occasional trip away from the cable with a portable device (laptop, netbook), who in their right mind would ever use Wi-Fi? Especially for video?

I like my packet loss to be 0% all the time, thank you. And I like low latency. And higher throughput. And better security.

I dunno, maybe I'm old fashioned.

you and me are in the same boat. I would rather connect wired than wireless. Sure i can watch movies wirelessly like anyone can and I do have wireless points deployed on my LAN. However, give me a wire and I will be happy. I have had too many of the following over the years.

1.) bad wireless nics
2.) dead (insert brand wireless/wired router here)
3.) bad or poorly written drivers
4.) interference
5.) O/S issues

wired it's either one of 3 things

1.) NIC
2.) wire
3.) drivers (this one is usually not a problem much anymore as most are following common chipsets).

ironically you are not that old fasioned because a lot of PE disks these days will install a wired NIC much faster than a wireless NIC. I have my bartpe disk built so it will install the wired USB NIC in case I can't get the onboard one to work.

if I really want to go from wired to wireless doing it that way. I could just buy an old xbox wired to wi-fi setup and just use that!
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buddahbless
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Re: Wi-Fi? Really?

We do agree on something Im a hardcore wired man myself maybe because I was MCES certified on WIN.2K and back then we didn't trust wireless any further than you could get a (wireless B) signal. LOL

Aside from that even my HP elitebook laptop with a b/g/n wireless card gets no play in my house as I connect in to my home network using the Gigabyte LAN connection built in, ( note using a Belkin N+ router). Will I need to use that fast of a connection @ home? not always, but its nice to know its there! Its great for transferring DIVX movies from laptop to my NAS, or streaming them from the NAS to my Sony Media player ( which has wireless built in) but I chose to use the wired connection.
Kearnstd
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Wired(when possible) will always be superior to Wireless simply because Wired systems are advancing in speed as well.

That said it is good that wireless is progressing fast because there are many places that could use high bandwidth but wired is not viable. rural internet access and even a normal network inside of older buildings. I think that a mixed use network will be the best thing possible. For example if someone like Comcast had a solid nationwide 4G network like they have with Clear in major cities they could push for creation of hybrid DOCSIS/4G units so that when they need to take DCOSIS down for service people do not lose service, maybe they just see reduced performance. but id take slow net during line work over no net.
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IceBawlz
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IceBawlz to TheRogueX

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Believe it. I work for a managed services provider that has a sister company that is a WISP and it's amazingly good. I have the service myself and my connection is a solid 5m/768k.

From my radio I hit a tower about 1.3 miles away. On that tower it hits a router then goes out another transmitter to our office. From that office it gets sent out on our 100mb/100mb Time Warner fiber connection. The average latency from my radio to the office is 2 to 4ms.

I stream HD netflix and Hulu+ all the time as well as play games over Xbox live. Latency and packet loss has never been an issue.

Also, we have users that are about 40 miles away from our office and go thru 3 wireless hops before they hit our main router and they're always under 10ms away. With 802.11n, MIMO, and a few other technologies that we use to reduce RF.. It's very doable. We have some clients that are 8 or 9 miles away from the access point and it works well.

ArrayList
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ArrayList

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security

apparently is not important.

BHNtechXpert
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BHNtechXpert

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Self serving prophecy....

This smacks of a self serving prophecy and it's just not going to happen any time soon and certainly not by 2015. Residential router/wireless quality is borderline horrible in general and most customers still vote with their wallet vs quality when they buy these devices. While Cisco would certainly love this to be the case they can keep on dreaming for now...
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kd6cae
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kd6cae

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Love my wired connection, and I'm sure I still will in 2015

I have 2 devices on my network, a laptop, and an iPhone 3GS. Obviously the 3GS is connected via wifi, but the laptop is always hardwired to the network. My latency and speed is way more stable on the wired connection than the wireless. In fact when I ping my iPhone, it looks like I'm pinging something in the UK! When I'm out and about, if I have the option to connect to a network via ethernet, I'll take advantage of this. Being forced to use wireless more often than not isn't fun.

alchav
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alchav

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Re: Love my wired connection, and I'm sure I still will in 2015

I'm with you, Wired is my preferred connection too. There are devices that Wireless should be used because Bandwidth and Stability are not that important. Laptops, Handhelds, and iPhones fall into this category. For Desktops, Workstations, and HD Media Players, you can't beat a good fat Wired Pipe!

michieru
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michieru

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...

All these "wireless" connections still go through some kind of backbone which is some sort of wired land line whether it be fiber/copper/serial etc.

What's the actual point of these statistics?

GNH
tolle causam
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GNH

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It is easy to see...

The last mile(s). That is the point.
patcat88
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to michieru

Re: ...

To get venture capitalists interested in investing fly by night smartphone social networking software developers running out of a mailboxes etc box.

GNH
tolle causam
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GNH

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Wi-Fi to Overtake Wired by 2015

That's no surprise here, and most of the really exciting developments are still in the labs. Fiber's days are numbered, unless it's the stuff in your breakfast cereal.
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tmc8080
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tmc8080

Member

wireless vs wired?

I think this is nonsensical... wifi gets supported by wires-- even the subscription wireless data (by Cell-Cos) ends up on a wired pipe eventually. Wifi is among the biggest trends for widespread adoption given the price of a wifi device plummeting to under $100 for a wifi enabled tablet.

** You can imagine that a similar device 6 years ago would cost easily 10x the price, if you could get one in form factors of 1ghz processors & 3-5" screens. Also 802.11n wasn't really a standard 6 years ago-- perhaps a RFP.

antdude
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antdude

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Network cable connections FTW.

Until wifi is stable in my homes, then I refuse to wifi since I get rare and random disconnections on all my devices and WAPs. It's annoying when using SSH2, streaming, downloading, playing games online, etc. I rarely move around anyways.
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aaronwt
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aaronwt

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gigabit wireless in 2015?

And gigabit wireless will hopefully show up in 2015. I already have around 70 devices on my network and have been running a gigbait backbone at home for ten years. With gigabit wireless I could put more devices on a wireless connection. Currently I use four Access Points so I have plenty of bandwidth for the devices on wireless. But it's still far too slow for my devices that use gigabit connections.

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