Nobody really knows if Dish is bluffing about building an LTE Advanced network. Some believe that Dish really is considering building a major LTE network that could help compete with major carriers -- potentially by around 2016. Others believe that Dish boss Charlie Ergen is just bluffing in order to bloat the price of the company's spectrum holdings before a sale. Dish needs an FCC waiver to allow them to build the network they're dreaming of (conditions require they offer satellite phone service), but if they don't get it the company still sees a niche for satellite phone services:
quote: Even if the FCC lifts the satellite burden, Ergen believes there's a "minor" market for satellite-capable handsets, identifying targets such as first responders and people who live in rural areas that are beyond the reach of cellular connections....Dish has teamed with Qualcomm to develop a new chipset that can operate in both terrestrial and satellite modes in the 2GHz/AWS-4 bands. Ergen's using this as hedge just in case the FCC doesn't let Dish use its spectrum with terrestrial-only wireless devices.
Despite these claims, there are more than a few analysts I've spoken to who continue to think a Dish LTE build is simply a lie designed to bump Dish's acquired spectrum value.
If you look at the quad play, dish only has 1, the least profitable and will continue to go down as content providers keep ringing record profits.
If they don't move into being a network provider they will be irrelevant in 10 years, period. Fixed wireless, regional/terrestrial wireless, or fiber can wipe them out in an instance.
With that said directv is in the same boat.
If they wait until 2016 when their actuaries see them turning the subscriber crest (probably happen before that) they can deploy a network to compete. By that time VoLTE will be solid and the incumbent voice play will be out. Equipment cost will be in the sweet spot. A content company may actually have a chance.
I have a hard time believing the market won't be disrupted before that, so they may need to turn up the heat. I put it at the tail end of the major carrier rollouts in 2014 timeframe.
They also know there is enough spectrum to go around, so a one time sale does not make a company..
· 2012-Aug-10 9:23 am: ·
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