 skeechanAi Otsukaholic Premium Member join:2012-01-26 AA169|170 kudos:2 |
skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 5:33 pm
Won't be a market for itJust like 3D never took off. No one is going to dump a working HDTV for 4K. It will be several years before 4K makes any kind of dent in the marketplace, especially given the lack of apparent visual improvement over 1080P in sets smaller than 50 or 60 inches. | |
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 |  hitachi369Embrace Your Rights Premium Member join:2001-10-03 Grand Rapids, MI kudos:4 |
Re: Won't be a market for itThere will be a market for it, its just about reducing the barriers and costs of entry. I have a 55'' 3D TV and I would be more than happy to get an even bigger 4k 3D TV at the right price point. | |
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skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 5:55 pm
Re: Won't be a market for itYou would need the majority to do it to get a decent price point and it isn't going to happen. Consumers just got their HDTVs and the hardware lasts too long. Like other appliances, TVs aren't replaced until they break.
For many years 4K will be a niche that no one cares about just like 3D is. In 2023, perhaps, 2017, no way. | |
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FFH5
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 6:43 pm
Re: Won't be a market for itsaid by skeechan:You would need the majority to do it to get a decent price point and it isn't going to happen. Consumers just got their HDTVs and the hardware lasts too long. Like other appliances, TVs aren't replaced until they break.
For many years 4K will be a niche that no one cares about just like 3D is. In 2023, perhaps, 2017, no way. +1 And the niche initially will be Sports Bars when live sports can be put in 4K. They can write off the hardware and monthly costs as business expenses. | |
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skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 6:50 pm
Re: Won't be a market for itAs the previous poster stated, the niche will be big sets, but not everyone has room for a 90" set unless they have a room dedicated to it. In most family rooms 65" is about as big as ya will want and there isn't a big difference between 1080P and 4K at 65" and 14ft...not big enough to justify dropping $3K to replace an otherwise working HDTV. | |
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Re: Won't be a market for itI think you are right in that having just purchased a big HDTV will be the main factor limiting 4k uptake but I personally know more than one person that would get it simply because it it the latest 'thing' and they will HAVE TO have it. True they don't make a market by themselves but it is a common marketing phenomenon. If (and it's a big if) the stores offer credit for 'trade ins' if your old HDTV I could see it making a big difference... Craigslist is also a more and more popular outlet as people look to get rid of useful stuff. I think this will be a good test of the 'American Consumer Machine'. | |
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to skeechan
skeechan, are you suggesting that companies just give up in trying to build the next "better mouse trap?" That's what R&D is supposed to do and since 3D failed the next front runner is 4K. I agree with you that that state of US ISPs is a poor environment to deploy this 4K tech but if consumer desire is there for the hardware the ISPs have no option but to start planning for 4K and that will benefit the US internet infrastructure for all.
But by all means... give up.
In the mean time I'll continue to work in R&D making 10Gb Ethernet better for businesses intranets. | |
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Re: Won't be a market for itstill only 10GB Ethernet? I thought we were at 40GB by now...  | |
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to axiomatic
Read what I posted. I said there won't be a market for it...as in it won't see widespread adoption for many years. It will be a niche product. Ferrari's are a niche product to. No one is saying don't produce it. What I'm saying is Netflix is wasting their time. | |
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Re: Won't be a market for itThe major reason why 3D didn't catch on very well is the limited viewing angles, quality while in the home and lack of content.
The 4K tv's are slated to have the ability to do 3D without glasses and even before then much of the content already available is able to be refreshed for the higher resolutions. If Netflix is jumping on the wagon and getting the content ready it won't be long before people start using it.
It's more of a build it and they will come rather than a wait and see game. | |
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to skeechan
said by skeechan:For many years 4K will be a niche that no one cares about just like 3D is. In 2023, perhaps, 2017, no way. rofl. what is there out there in 1080P? a handful of titles and only PPV and overcompressed. *yawn* | |
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to skeechan
said by skeechan:Just like 3D never took off. No one is going to dump a working HDTV for 4K. It will be several years before 4K makes any kind of dent in the marketplace, especially given the lack of apparent visual improvement over 1080P in sets smaller than 50 or 60 inches. Even if there isn't a market for it, it will be used. The reason is simple: Manufacturers will be able to do 4k TV's at the same price 1080p sets go for today in a very short time. So it will get used simply because they can. | |
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skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 6:12 pm
Re: Won't be a market for itThey won't be able to do it until there is demand for it. There won't be demand for it because you need churn in the hardware. 4K will not be cheaper than 1080P just like 1080P still isn't cheaper than the 720P sets.
Eventually 4K will be popular but not for a very long time. | |
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Re: Won't be a market for itsaid by skeechan:They won't be able to do it until there is demand for it. There won't be demand for it because you need churn in the hardware. 4K will not be cheaper than 1080P just like 1080P still isn't cheaper than the 720P sets.
Eventually 4K will be popular but not for a very long time. You say 3D never took off yet many entries level TV's now come with it. If there is no demand, why are they so cheap? My father bought a 55'' 3D LG TV a week ago at 799, and that the normal price. As far as no one replacing it if it isnt broken, that maybe true for you, but I replaced my 46'' TV with a 55'' TV and the 46'' TV wasnt broken. | |
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skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 7:03 pm
Re: Won't be a market for it3D isn't the driver of HDTV demand. People buy that LG set because it is 55 inches for 800 bucks. If 3D was the demand driver you would see WAY more 3D content. 3D was all hype and ooh and ahh, but it is a failure in the marketplace. The market simply doesn't care about 3D.
HDTVs are cheap because they are produced in very high volume and it took nearly 20 years of HDTV sales to get to this place.
There are always exceptions. There will be 3 people who buy 4K now just as you are an exception that replaces a working TV. But the market in general doesn't replace near new working appliances and to get 4K anywhere near as cheap as current HDTV's you would need that to happen.
4K will always be more expensive than 1080P just as 1080P is more expensive than 720P sets.
That isn't to say 4K won't eventually be popular...it just won't happen any time in the near future. It will be years and years and years away. | |
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Re: Won't be a market for it4k will be as much a 'niche' as the ipad retina. As long as the networks keep a decent bitrate (they won't), or at least one, and as long as bluray looks amazing it will take off. Maybe slowly at first but it will. | |
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skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 7:08 pm
Re: Won't be a market for itThat is fine if a 4K TV were as cheap as an iPad. Point one out to me that is and I'll buy one. I was eyeballing a 4K TV and it was 5X the price of the previous poster's new LG. The market will ignore 4K just as it ignored 3D and D-VHS. | |
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djrobx
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 7:47 pm
Re: Won't be a market for itsaid by skeechan:That is fine if a 4K TV were as cheap as an iPad. Point one out to me that is and I'll buy one. I was eyeballing a 4K TV and it was 5X the price of the previous poster's new LG.
The market will ignore 4K just as it ignored 3D and D-VHS. ... And SACD and DVD audio. Unless 100" TVs become commonplace, regular people don't care about that level of quality. | |
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to skeechan
said by skeechan: The market simply doesn't care about 3D.. 1. Glasses 2. Dizziness 3. Nausea - 3d will never be anything other than a fad. | |
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C0deZer0
Premium Member
2013-Mar-16 1:12 pm
Re: Won't be a market for itsaid by dvd536:said by skeechan: The market simply doesn't care about 3D.. 1. Glasses 2. Dizziness 3. Nausea - 3d will never be anything other than a fad. It's sad that the 3D effect in the 3DS doesn't bug me much at all but the glasses one does. That and even on the glasses-based 3D, there's two different ways... one which requires expensive, powered glasses but gives you a full resolution's worth per eye, or the kind that can use cheaper glasses, but causes some bad interlacing on text or any smaller details.  So yea, the handheld console seems to 'get' a proper 3D effect better than the big-arsed tv's that these companies want to sell so badly. | |
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Subaru
Premium Member
2013-Mar-17 8:06 am
Re: Won't be a market for itsaid by C0deZer0:said by dvd536:said by skeechan: The market simply doesn't care about 3D.. 1. Glasses 2. Dizziness 3. Nausea - 3d will never be anything other than a fad. It's sad that the 3D effect in the 3DS doesn't bug me much at all but the glasses one does. That and even on the glasses-based 3D, there's two different ways... one which requires expensive, powered glasses but gives you a full resolution's worth per eye, or the kind that can use cheaper glasses, but causes some bad interlacing on text or any smaller details.  So yea, the handheld console seems to 'get' a proper 3D effect better than the big-arsed tv's that these companies want to sell so badly. Active glasses you are talking about | |
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to hitachi369
said by hitachi369:You say 3D never took off yet many entries level TV's now come with it. If there is no demand, why are they so cheap? Manufacturers are dumping inventory. If 3D was all that, the monitors would be priced more that $799. | |
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to skeechan
The assumption that Netflix can't do 4K until everybody has a 4K TV is flawed. This is true perhaps for optical, where putting out a 4k bluray would be pointless if not enough people had he hardware to play it (and so buy it), but as a streaming platform that doesn't apply to Netflix. It will already automatically scale to the best bitrate and resolution supported by the target platform, and the same will happen here. Super HD didn't mean that users with 5 meg DSL couldn't keep watching stuff in HD, it just meant they didn't get any benefit out of it.
The absence of that hardware barrier is key. If the cost of 4K content isn't too high for Netflix, they avoid the whole chicken and egg problem. | |
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skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-15 2:49 pm
Re: Won't be a market for itOh sure they can...it's just no one will use it. They'll pay licensing for content no one is interested in.
4K is simply not compelling enough for people to give up their current sets. Netflix may very well do it, just as TV makers advertise 3D all over the place, but 4K won't be a demand driver for Netflix just as 3D isn't a demand driver for HDTVs (price and size are).
From a marketing perspective, no one is going to sign up for Netflix to get 4K, not enough to make the effort worth it anyway. Why? Those people will already be a subscribers whether 4K is there or not. | |
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to skeechan
Well,I'm looking for 4K capability in my upcoming sets.( In the market for 2) so...at least capability to do Ultra.They're even working on 8K. Japan will start broadcasting in 4K next year.  | |
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to skeechan
LOL, look at the noob comparing 3d which always gets rebooted and NEVER takes off, to HD which basically replaced television viewing as we know it... I'm partially kidding here, partially  | |
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skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 6:48 pm
Re: Won't be a market for itNo dummy, I'm comparing 3D to 4K. HDTV was a revolution like color was a revolution. 4K is a gimmick like 3D is a gimmick.
Even then, look how long it took HDTV to become the standard in household viewing...more than a decade; the first HDTV's debuted in the states in the mid 1990's. It will be the same or longer for 4K because TV is a major appliance that is only replaced when it breaks.
To get people to dump a working HDTV you have to have something way more bitchen than 4K. | |
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Re: Won't be a market for it4K vs. 1080p is nearly as much of a jump in quality as DVD vs. Blu-Ray was a few years ago.
Will 4K take a little while to catch on? Yes. So did 1080p HD sets. That isn't a problem.
Also, there are a fair number of devices out now that support better-than-1080p playback. Both Retina MacBooks, 27" and 30" desktop displays (including the iMac screen I'm sitting in front of right now) and a smattering of tablets (most notably the Nexus 10) come to mind. None support full 4K, but none represent as large a price premium as a 4K set would command if you tried to buy one right now.
As for me, as someone who doesn't have an immediate need to get an HDTV, and doesn't own a screen larger than 27" right now, 4K just might be a feature of the next set I buy. I'm certainly not interested in 1080p at this point, nor am I in 3D really. | |
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skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 7:25 pm
Re: Won't be a market for it4K is a huge benefit for the 80-90" sets, but for typical family room sets it will be difficult for people to tell 1080P from 4K unless the sets are next to each other. There was a chart floating around showing the benefit of 4K but it assumes people can discern 200px per degree which is B.S. Visual acuity simply isn't that good. Hell, they can't tell the difference between 720P and 1080i when changing from channel to channel.
4K will go like 3D, people will buy it when the TV happens to come with it. | |
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to iansltx
I have had a CRT HDTV set since 2003. Supports 1080i and setup with hardware to pipe and scale to that resolution, stripping drm. Why? Because that set is sharper with better color than most LCDs and LEDs and I am not ready to retire it. So I used hardware I mostly had to adapt it. I do have some LEDs in other rooms but this CRT will keep its place in the house till ig dies. I bet many have the same feeling about post-HD advancements. I bought an hd set simply because ntsc resolutions give me a migraine. They are just awful. I think hd is good enough for most people and signal compression used by cable and satellite is typically the bottleneck during regular tv viewing. Ripped off the air broadcasts still look much better on 1080i, let alone 1080p. As a gamer, I can appreciate 4K, but not enough to replace a perfectly fine HDTV in this economy. | |
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Re: Won't be a market for itI miss my 2003 RPTV 1080i. But we moved into a space limited place 2 years ago and I got rid of it to get a cheap LCD to hang on the wall. Now we moved into a house and are looking for the biggest size we can fit, 65". Nothing I read says 4k is going to make a difference on that size. Does Netflix even do 1080p now? | |
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skeechan
Premium Member
2013-Mar-15 10:33 am
Re: Won't be a market for itEven if they did, resolution is meaningless. Compression is everything. Compression artifacts can kill apparent picture quality. | |
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to Selenia
My 1080i Philips CRT is still kicking too and unlike my DLP works well for my old light gun games. | |
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to skeechan
4K is not a gimmick. 3D TV is.
Another point, I doubt TV's made these days will last for 10+ years like older TV's. I'd love to be proved wrong on this, but judging by consumer goods in general I'd have to say that the odds are in my favor. | |
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to skeechan
Content will be another barrier, somebody is going to have to actually make 4k shows and films available to consumers.
And what are the odds of Netflix even securing such premium content? the content owners are anti-technology and like to avoid Netflix all too much. | |
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to skeechan
said by skeechan:Just like 3D never took off. No one is going to dump a working HDTV for 4K. It will be several years before 4K makes any kind of dent in the marketplace, especially given the lack of apparent visual improvement over 1080P in sets smaller than 50 or 60 inches. There is an improvement, depending on how far you are from the actual display. Then again, I'm of the market that fails to understand why these same companies that can easily provide a 1080p or higher resolution display on as little as a 15" monitor and now a 5" phone but then refuse to provide something with as good or better pixel density just because it's badged as a TV. | |
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to skeechan
Well...not quite. What about 4DX! A 4K set is capable of doing 1080P 3D without glasses. Or so they demo'd. » streamtvnetworks.com/ult ··· -d.shtmlJust search google for 4K 3D without glasses. I await the wallpaper evolution of OLED...much like the 1st Total Recall... | |
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aaronwt
Premium Member
2013-Mar-15 9:06 am
Re: Won't be a market for itsaid by cableties:Well...not quite. What about 4DX!
A 4K set is capable of doing 1080P 3D without glasses. Or so they demo'd. »streamtvnetworks.com/ult ··· -d.shtml Just search google for 4K 3D without glasses.
I await the wallpaper evolution of OLED...much like the 1st Total Recall... It may be possible but all the UHD sets for sale still use glasses. | |
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to skeechan
the only thing holding back 4K is going to be the manufacturers and any arbitrary attempts at price fixing/price hikes. It will be their fault, entirely - just as it has been with 120hz, 3d, etc.
MFR policy is always: take something away, add it back with a surcharge. add something new with another surcharge. repeat. | |
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to skeechan
i disagree... 3d and 4k are two very different feature sets. i'm budget conscious consumer who didn't buy a HDTV to replace my 36" 460p CRT, nor did 3d inspire me to buy either, i even will avoid buying a 1600p for now, yet 4k will get me to buy a screen and better GPU for my PC once mass production gets the price down to earth. | |
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to skeechan
To be fair, a 4K display has more marketability than 3D. Unlike 3D, 4K res displays (monitors and TV's alike) are something that can universally benefit, and don't require wearing stupid, expensive, battery-sucking glasses to be able to appreciate their benefits and positives.
In the short term, it would mean being able to watch four 1080p feeds simultaneously, which means a one-screen lan party for those interested. And that is already something worth getting excited about. | |
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to skeechan
i still think 4k will come sooner than most think here. the reason is the panel industry has shifted from glass and rare earths being the biggest cost concern, to yield (no dead pixels) being the biggest issue as new panel technologies require less expensive commodities to build. this is why you don't see many 1080x1200 screens anymore - because it's a yield game now, so it's more profitable for everyone to buy the same few maker panels and put their own name and circuit boards behind them... this is the same reason why all 1440p's are 27" and all 1600p's are 30" - the same few guys make the panels. once they get the yields up on a 4k matrix of marketable 42" size, every OEM and his grandmother will be selling them cheaper and cheaper every Month - they have to, or the yield curve won't be profitable for anyone. | |
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to skeechan
I bought my 26in 1080p LCD tv at an yard sale for $100 and ask for a blu ray paly with Netflix for Christmas. I already have regrets getting the blu rau player, I should had as for Roku and stuck to standard DVD. I just do not see the advantage or justify the cost over standard DVD. Now the want me to junk it all for 4k? I am not made of money. | |
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caps?How fast is the average internet connection in this country again? And you think the biggest problem for 4K streams is caps? lol
Sure, 1.5 Mbps DSL could work, it might buffer for 5 hours or so... | |
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Re: caps?here @ LA, Cali I'm stucked with 3M DSL, can't even get 6M, for the longest time i thought 3M is fine, I just need to keep the computer on and let it download stuff. Once I move to college apartment, here's got Gigabit internet, but most students don't know that because most of them only use laptop, hence limited by the wifi. I plug in the Cat5 cable and see gigbait, i thought "it's probably only the intranet speed, no way the WAN side is that fast", later i did a speedtest, i constantly clocked 600M+ speed both up and down, now this totally changed my internet behavior, ever since i ditched DSL and sign up for charter's 30M cable. There's a HUGE difference from 3 to 30, not sure after 50 or 100 though, probably diminishing return.
But yeah, 4K tv is the future for sure after 3D, these ISP need to lift the 250G cap though if they want to make streaming 4k tv possible. | |
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to ITALIAN926
it will be easily possible on Verizon fios, and google.. possibly some Comcast areas.. that being said more than half of the country cant get fast enough connections for this.. thus 4K will be delayed for at least another 10 years... but their is always blue ray to the rescue | |
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 cowboyro Premium Member join:2000-10-11 Shelton, CT |
cowboyro
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 5:55 pm
Fix the buffering on Sat evenings first......and then worry about 4k, OK? There has not been one single instance where I could watch a movie without pauses for buffering during weekend evenings, that while all my bandwidth tests show 15+M at the same time. | |
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4KI am just going to download the 4K movies just to waste bandwidth. Even though 4k is made for huge TV resolutions. | |
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 IowaCowboyIowa native Premium Member join:2010-10-16 Springfield, MA kudos:1 |
Caps are not an issue for meI subscribe to cable TV so caps are not an issue for me.
I'm watching the evening news while I'm writing this post. The DVR is nice as you can watch the shows on your schedule. I also fast forward commercials as well.
Sometimes I think of switching to DirecTV but it is cheaper to bundle TV, home phone, and Internet with Comcast. | |
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Re: Caps are not an issue for mesaid by IowaCowboy:I subscribe to cable TV so caps are not an issue for me.
I'm watching the evening news while I'm writing this post. The DVR is nice as you can watch the shows on your schedule. I also fast forward commercials as well.
Sometimes I think of switching to DirecTV but it is cheaper to bundle TV, home phone, and Internet with Comcast. I don't subscribe to TV and caps are not an issue for me. It is cheaper for me to not bundle. | |
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to IowaCowboy
But cable TV is basically 720p with terrible compression. | |
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gutch
Member
2013-Mar-14 6:26 pm
How much usage?I have a lousy 100gb cap. | |
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88615298
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 8:37 pm
Re: How much usage?Well 4K has 4 times the pixels of 1080p and is Super HD uses 5-7 Mbps logic says 4K would use 20-28 Mbps. Of course if they use H.265 or something like that it might be 10-12 Mbps | |
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Re: How much usage?said by 88615298:Well 4K has 4 times the pixels of 1080p and is Super HD uses 5-7 Mbps logic says 4K would use 20-28 Mbps. Of course if they use H.265 or something like that it might be 10-12 Mbps 4K would use 10-14 Mbps or 5-6Mbps with H.265. 4 times the pixels does not mean 4 times the bitrate. | |
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 Dominokat"Hi" Premium Member join:2002-08-06 Boothbay, ME kudos:2 |
I never heard of 4KWhat is is it? I know of 3D, and Super HD but never heard of 4K until this was posted. How is it different then 3D or Super HD? | |
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Re: I never heard of 4KStack 1080p in a 2x2 grid. You now have 4K. It's not quite the quality difference between a (well-mastered) DVD and a (well-mastered) Blu-Ray, but it comes very close. | |
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15444104
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 6:44 pm
More empty hype from the brass tacks!Every time I see stories about 1Gb internet, 3D, and 4k HD I have to chuckle the ONLY reason they are pushing this stuff in the press is because the executive MANGLEMENT types CEOs,ect) are always trying to impress their counterparts and the greedy shareholders. They could give a rats azz about the customer and what they want and need. Today it is all about "telling" the customer what they SHOULD want. Not letting the customer decide.
Tom Rutledge, the CEO of Charter is a perfect example of "leading the customer by the nose", business practices. Basically this prig "decided" that the customer wanted either 30mb or 100mb service and NOTHING else....take it or leave it.
Of course that extra cash he is forcing people to part with is certainly helpful in funding his daily helicopter rides between his McMansion and his office. | |
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Re: More empty hype from the brass tacks!said by 15444104:either 30mb or 100mb service and NOTHING else....take it or leave it. That's the way it should be. The tiers aren't the problem. It's the pricing and their greed. | |
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 ·Verizon FiOS
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patt2k
Member
2013-Mar-14 6:50 pm
Test Sequencestest it for yourself guys  I am downloading on FIOS the mobile 4K test sequence it's 5gb ++ it is being downloaded for like 8 minutes I think , maxing out my connection. Impressive! » www.elementaltechnologie ··· equences | |
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If it happens....If it happens count on 4-6 years at best but certainly not a year or two. | |
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Re: If it happens....said by battleop:If it happens count on 4-6 years at best but certainly not a year or two. Hah. Within 2 years time 4K will be happening. | |
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Re: If it happens....Maybe on a very small limited scale but not mainstream. | |
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snark!*starts throwing money at 4k tv makers.* | |
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 KrKHeavy Artillery For The Little Guy Premium Member join:2000-01-17 Tulsa, OK Netgear WNDR3700v2 Zoom 5341J
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KrK
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 11:08 pm
US ISP's aren't up to the taskMost US ISP's don't provide a decent enough connection for a good HD stream more or less a 4K stream, CDN servers or not.
They'll make sure they use caps and overages to keep it that way, too. I'm not seeing any signs of any willingness to bring good speed to the masses for a reasonable price.... other then Google Fiber, and that's a very limited area. | |
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 hussle87 Premium Member join:2008-01-06 Sykesville, MD |
hussle87
Premium Member
2013-Mar-14 11:48 pm
4KHecht with 4ktv i would rather have 21:9 true cinema tv like the one vizio produced but got discontinued or atleast a steady 60fps on a 1080p display. | |
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 elray join:2000-12-16 Santa Monica, CA ·Time Warner Cable
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elray
Member
2013-Mar-15 1:37 am
Much Ado About Nothing4K streams of ... what?
Netflix can offer an $8 streaming package, because they have no significant modern content; their "competition" is even worse.
Until Netflix steps up and pays for real content, at which time they will have to charge substantially more, 4K won't matter.
The "cap" issue will be moot. If Netflix (or Apple) wants to see their product succeed, they will buy out the caps for their customers. | |
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 simlesa Premium Member join:2006-04-14 Astoria, NY |
simlesa
Premium Member
2013-Mar-15 9:30 am
Interlaced or Progressive?Are the first 4K sets interlaced like the early HDTVs? If so, are we also going to see a 4x720p or 1440p resolution being supported? | |
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