2006: The End of Traditional TV? Broadcast dinosaurs still rule the earth Place shifting, DVRs, IPTV, on-line broadband video; Terry Heaton thinks that 2006 is the year traditional broadcast television meets its maker (via GigaOM). "I believe history will look back at 2006 as the year of an unbundled awakening in the media world, ushering in an era of creativity the likes of which we've not witnessed in recent history, especially in the advertising community." Well, a man can dream, anyway.
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  insomxPremium
join:2003-01-26
Canada | Not Just like BPL, Wimmax and all that other crap...It won't happen! | |
|  | | | Re: Not Possible...but I'm sure that's what people used to say about Betamax, 8 tracks, LP's, audio cassettes, VHS (soon enough),etc., etc. | |
| | adsldog
join:2000-12-01
Woodstock, GA | WiMax is already happening | |
| | | insomxPremium
join:2003-01-26
Canada | Re: Not said by adsldog:WiMax is already happening It didn't knock everything off the market like it was predicted to.
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»monctonhigh.ca
"What is wrong with all the people that say what is wrong with people?" -John Crawford | |
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 dslwanterIt's comingPremium
join:2002-12-16
Niles, OH
 ·AT&T Midwest
| Not happening. There are way too many people that feel Standard TV is good enough. The market just isn't there. I don't see this happening by any deadline. I feel as we go through the years and people buy new TVs people we begin to migrate but I don't ever see analog TV completely fading out for at least 20 or 30 more years.
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| | damoxPremium
join:2002-01-07
Olympia, WA Reviews:
 ·Comcast Formerl..
1 edit | Re: Not happening. said by dslwanter:. . . but I don't ever see analog TV completely fading out for at least 20 or 30 more years. I thought the Digital TV Deadline (for the US) was February 2009 . . . at least it is according to this article: »news.com.com/House+approves+new+···804.html
. . . or did you mean in other parts of the world?
But this guy isn't really talking about switching to digital . . . he is talking about the way in which TV is delivered and the way in which we view it.
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DAMOX Proud to be a member of Team Discovery | |
| | |  dvd536as Mr. Pink as they comePremium
join:2001-04-27
Phoenix, AZ
kudos:4 | Re: Not happening. said by damox:said by dslwanter:. . . but I don't ever see analog TV completely fading out for at least 20 or 30 more years. I thought the Digital TV Deadline (for the US) was February 2009 . . . at least it is according to this article: » news.com.com/House+approves+new+···804.html . . . or did you mean in other parts of the world? But this guy isn't really talking about switching to digital . . . he is talking about the way in which TV is delivered and the way in which we view it. The original date was in 2002. everytime it came within a year or two they pushed the date back. i dont see it happening anytime soon.
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| damoxPremium
join:2002-01-07
Olympia, WA Reviews:
·Comcast Formerl..
| It's coming . . . but not in 2006! Eventually, in the next several years (after the forced digital conversion), things will start changing a great deal. The way in which we watch TV will evolve, but I don't think that will happen over night. For one thing, too much of the population is over 50. Older folks don't take to change very well.
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DAMOX Proud to be a member of Team Discovery | |
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1 edit | A very important point... "The institutions that are threatened by all this freedom will also start taking the gloves off, and legal battles and threats will surface at an increasing rate. There is simply too much at stake for this not to happen. The nature of authority — all authority — is changed by an informed public, and that is a very real threat to those who've made their living through the authority of restricted knowledge." TV News in a Postmodern World, 2006: The Unbundled Awakening, by Terry Heaton
This truth is the heart of the matter. The battle has been engaged, but it remains to be seen whether our governmental institutions will come down on the side of the people, or the entrenched interests lining their pockets with cash. I hope that the genie cannot be put back in the bottle. | |
| | DonLibesPremium,ExMod 2001
join:2003-01-19 | Re: A very important point... I agree. There are hundreds of lobbyist that have the ears of the members of Congress, in many cases writing the laws themselves. You want to find the future? The future belongs to the media groups outpaying the others. The public be damned. | |
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 Romney2012Defeat Obama 2012-Chg we can believe inPremium
join:2002-03-03
USA
kudos:4 |  This industry guru doesn't know bits from bytes
Another important milestone for online video will be reached in 2006 when Comcast begins offering 10 megabyte download and 1 megabyte upload speeds for their standard broadband package. He should have said 10 megabits download and 1 megabit upload. So take what this industry pundit has to say with a grain of salt.
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Join Red Room Forum
My Web Page | |
| btclaz
join:2001-01-02
Tucson, AZ | Training! COX Cable in Tucson/Phoenix have NO IDEA what HD is. DirecTV still charges $399 for a new subscriber to get HD/DVR equipment. Once big companies understand and offer better deals it will take off...but I doubt this year. They are just as ignorant as the people who are satisfied with older TV's.
I feel so far ahead of the curve with my HD TV and Home Theater systems. It's like talking to an AOL dialup tech if I need anything from a provider. They just don't understand the newer technologies and obviously haven't been trained on it. | |
| | | | Re: Training! quote:
They are just as ignorant as the people who are satisfied with older TV's
And that attitude is why some will hold on to their rabbit ears, 8 tracks, VHS, and dialup forever. Calling people "ignorant" because they don't own the same technology as you just smacks of elitism-big f*ckin deal. people who can't or won't afford to plop down the cash for this are "ignorant"? millions would disagree with you. | |
| | | btclaz
join:2001-01-02
Tucson, AZ | Re: Training! The providers are ignorant. Like most others who WON'T go to newer technology. I see you're part of that latter group. I'm not elitism. I just have a newer TV for God's sake. I wonder if HD exisits in Kentucky at all? I'd be surprised with your attitude.
Training is still key whether you like it or not. | |
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|  japPremium
join:2003-08-10
038xx | said by btclaz:They are just as ignorant as the people who are satisfied with older TV's. I feel so far ahead of the curve with my HD TV and Home Theater systems. Please deflate self & recognize there is more than one curve. My curve is integration to PC: less hardware, less junk in my life, a single inexpensive provider, less time in front of the idiot box, and close proximity to several good theatres that serve beer and salad. So I'm way ahead of you. 
The reason many of us don't embrace HD is not ignorance, it's simply that TV is not a priority in life. | |
| | | btclaz
join:2001-01-02
Tucson, AZ | Re: Training! That's great! I wish I could get out and have a few beers. I am stuck at home trying to recover from several cancer surgeries. I enjoy my TV and wireless laptop too with a 6 Mbps connection. My variety is more than one device. TV-->Laptop.
But seriously, MOST people have no idea what HD is. They assume it's for the rich people only. This likely due to the $20k TV's they USED to sell. Prices are down, very much lower. Even friends who tell me they have HD, really DON'T. They don't know what it is either. Just because you have Satellite TV doesn't mean you have HD. As a matter of fact, my cable company only offers 9 HD channels TOTAL here. Although they advertise many more. I hear DirecTV only has 16 in my area. I can only hope it grows in 2006, but we'll see. With the launch of a new DirecTV HD Sat. in 2006, it should speed things up a little. | |
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1 edit | Re: Training! And most people who think they have HD, like yourself, don't realize that 50% of the HD content that they believe thay are receiving is just upconverted SD content.
I am one of the "Ignorant" bunch who will wait until almost all of the content is real HD content, and all of the "Non-Ignorant" early adopters have paid for the development of the HD equipment, and then and only then will I jump on the HD bandwagon.
I was an early adopter of SD content in 1994 and have reaped the benefits of that technology, but I have watched from sidelines as I have seen missteps and mistakes followed by more missteps and mistakes in the deployment of HD technology. HD is still not ready for primetime deployment, and I really appreciate that there are the "Non-Ignorant" users paying for its development and deployment.
And I will wait until the 100 hour HD DVR is available for $200 and the 36" LCD HD Capable Flat Screen is avaliable for $1000, and almost all of the content from most sources is actually HD content and not just upconverted SD content.
Extra Edit:
DirecTV has already launched their HD MPEG4 Satellite, but the others in the series will take a couple more years to launch and deploy. At the start of deployment the new DirecTV HD Satellites will be used to spread HD local content only and will MPEG4, which will require new equipment, which the DirecTV spokesman said will not be offered for free. Previous HD equipment will continue to receieve the current HD content until DirecTV has finished delopment of all HD locals by the end of 2007 or the beginning of 2008.
All users who bought into the early HD DVR for $1000 or just recently for $399, will have to buy the compatable MPEG4 DVR, which could cost somewhere between $200 and $400.
But even at the end of deployment of the HD locals on DirecTV, except for the wide spread local HD channels, there will still only be a small number of available HD channels (in comparison to total channels), and then only a small amount of true HD programming, and all of this will not even happen until almost 2008.
I still beleive, that except for sports programming, waiting for HD development and deployment is the only "SMART" thing to do. | |
| | | | | btclaz
join:2001-01-02
Tucson, AZ | Re: Training! Great information. Thanks. Especially regarding DirecTV. I am likely to hold out even longer myself before I invest further. DVD's and HD Cable service will have to suffice till 2009. I had to buy a new TV, my 20+ year 21" (4:3)finally went bad.
I am fully aware of the channels that are claimed to be HD when indeed they are not truly. That is my point with the providers thinking they are HD now when they are a long way away from it. They advertise one thing, deliver another. Their Sales and Tech people have not been trained in this emerging technology. My cable provider has two REAL HD channels, INHD1 and INHD2, yet others are HD only "sometimes". It's great watching a concert in HD with 5.1 surround sound or football games in such great detail. But those are rare indeed. I wish providers didn't advertise so heavily that they have all this HD content and channels when in reality it is still VERY limited. I fee like the all lie cheat and steal to get the extra buck.
I guess I could run up to Best Buy and get an HD Antenna for $25 and cancel HD programming with the cable company. It'll be just like in the 70's but clear!
For those who don't WANT to go to new technology...There were many like you who only wanted dialup and did not want to make the move to high speed internet. But through time you probably accepted it and now say "I'll never go back to dialup". HD television will be much the same once completed in 2009.
...and there were those of us who said 40 MB hard drives is "all we will ever need", or better yet, 640k is all the memory you'll ever need. Times change, accept it and enjoy it. | |
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1 edit | Re: Training! said by btclaz:For those who don't WANT to go to new technology...There were many like you who only wanted dialup and did not want to make the move to high speed internet. But through time you probably accepted it and now say "I'll never go back to dialup". HD television will be much the same once completed in 2009. In my case, I have had cable based broadband Internet service, since 1998 (my cable company was the 2nd Road Runner in the nation, in 1997, I waited about 9 months before installing and had a 3COM modem).
You should also understand that the digital bill just passed that has a deadline of Februray 18, 2009 does NOT MANDATE HD SERVICE, it just mandates digital service. And in the case of my cable company, they already switched to fully digital this last October. The switch to digital in Februray 2009 will not require that all broadcasters delivery HD content, just that they deliver a digital signal, and they will be required to quit broadcasting analog on specific frequencies, that the FCC wants to auction off. The analog TV signals use the 700MHz frequency band and the wireless companies are salivating over those frequencies.
So, remember that the February 18, 2009 cutoff HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH INCREASING HD CONTENT or BROADCASTS.
And you should also understand that some us early adopters, Betamax 1975, VHS 1979, various small computers from 1978-1983, IBM PC 1983, CD 1985, DirecTV 1994, DVD 1998, Broadband 1998, DVR (TiVo) 2000, and the DirecTV TiVo DVR 2003 (when the price dropped to $99), do not feel the need to buy into HD devices that should not only change a lot over the next decade but also drop to less than half the current cost. And during this same time period, the amount of HD content should increase to the point that investing in HD technology finally makes sense. | |
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| | | japPremium
join:2003-08-10
038xx | said by btclaz:I wish I could get out and have a few beers. I am stuck at home trying to recover from several cancer surgeries. Yup! Stuck at home types are what TV is great for. Here's hoping you get back on the ale soon - if only for the occassional swallow.
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| KearnstdElf WizardPremium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ | i still use a standard def TV, but i have better things to spend my hard earned money on then replacing a perfectly working TV set. such as saving up to replacing my 10yr old pickup truck. getting a new more fuel efficent car is more sensable then junking a 3yr old TV set just because HD is available.
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[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports | |
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RayWPremium
join:2001-09-01
Layton, UT
kudos:1 | I am happy with the old broadcast TV Considering the cost of the new stuff, why should we be forced out of it. Yes, the new stuff is better, but for what I want from "TV" it is not worth it. OH! that is right, I am not helping the industry put another expensive foreign car in some industry mogul's multi car garage.
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I am not lost, I find myself every time. | |
| |  Pz_
join:2001-03-31
Brownsburg, IN | Re: I am happy with the old broadcast TV I have to agree. I've been causally shopping for a new tv for the past few months. Anything HD is usually around 2x the price of the equivalent set. With all the crap that comes along with HD channels/DVR, etc. Pass.
You know, back when ISPs tried to charge extra for 56k service, I passed on that as well. Not because I was ignorant, or didn't want the extra speed. It was just easy to see it was a rip off. | |
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| | Ready or Not It does not matter, the times are changing. The FCC is ready to start selling off the freqs. Goverment is eager to get some of that money. 2006 may or may not the the year; however, we know 2009 WILL. | |
|  richk_1957If ..Then..ElsePremium
join:2001-04-11
Minas Tirith | I'm not a big TV watcher. To me, most of the stuff out there is not worth it. Most of my TV viewing is VCR tapes, DVD's & the occasional news.
Why should I be forced to buy something when what I have is fine with me? | |
| | RadioDoc58ef2c0Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11 | Terry Heaton Had too much egg nog. | |
| | | | Re: Terry Heaton No wonder us american are so slow in things, Europe has change to digital this year and by the end of 2006 no more regular tv. | |
| | | | | Re: Terry Heaton didn't the goverment make everyone switch to newer frequency years ago? if not we would still have tubes and am radio.. | |
| | | | RadioDoc58ef2c0Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11 | Re: Terry Heaton No they didn't. And we still have tubes and AM radio.
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Toolmaster of La Grange. | |
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Re: KET Doing DIGITAL RIGHT!
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