Telco Video DreamsFTTH? VDSL? A little bit of everything... ( old news - 05:11PM Thursday May 29 2003) tags: Video · business While Qwest announces that they'll soon reveal video bundle partners, SBC, BellSouth, and Verizon team up to standardize fiber deployment. Most telcos have stepped up their efforts to provide video services to combat cable's dominance, since with the exception of a few non-U.S. companies, none of them have been particularly aggressive. That may slowly be a changing trend. In Canada, a company by the name of Manitoba Telecom Services recently announced that they'd be spending $210 million to run fiber optic cable throughout Winnipeg's neighborhoods. A fairly aggressive move considering the company itself is only worth $580 million. According to Cheryl Barker, president of Manitoba Telecom's TV division, U.S. telcos should move faster. She also argues that "all the telcos should get in this business."In Japan and elsewhere in Asia Pac, video over DSL has been a reality for quite some time. The New York Times recently depressed scores of Americans with their detailed report on a South Korean family paying $32 a month for their 40MBps connection, via which they get everything from soap operas to gaming. In fact a division of the Seoul Broadcasting System charges 40 cents a broadband show, and claims 1.8 million registered users with 4,000 more signing up every day. Qwest CEO Richard Notebaert told analysts today that the company is in the process of striking deals with providers, and that the company will likely announce a deal to bundle video services "soon". That deal will likely be with a major satellite provider, since Qwest and other telco's foray into VDSL has hit specification roadblocks and wound up being simply too expensive. Qwest has some VoDSL customers in Phoenix and Denver already, but has stated publicly that they don't plan to expand that particular service into other markets at this time. Speeds on the DSL hardware side have been accelerating for what it's worth. Next Level Communications claims their VDSL offers 26 Mbps at 4,000 feet. Centillium has been making techies' eyes roll with their claims that they've developed 50Mbps, backward compatible DSL that runs as far as 22,000 feet from the CO over existing copper. Alcatel has promised they'll roll out new ADSL2+ cards late this year. But when it all comes together as a coherent plan with a functional infrastructure is anyone's guess. The telcos meanwhile are working harder on fiber roll-outs to fulfill their video dreams (or at least making it look that way before the FCC puts its February ruling down in stone). Verizon, SBC, and BellSouth today announced that the companies had collectively agreed to standardize the construction of residential fiber-optic networks, hoping to make the roll-outs of such technology cheaper and easier. As we mentioned recently, Verizon President Lawrence T. Babbio Jr. said his company would make rolling out fiber a priority in 2004; but some would argue such promises have been made before. In the end, when Joe Homeowner will be able to watch "All in the Family" reruns via a telco provided, non-satellite broadband solution, is something even the greatest soothsayers would be hard-pressed to predict. Related:- Netflix Streaming Coming To PS3 In November
- Apple Cooking Up New $30 A Month TV Service?
- Blockbuster Still Not Getting This Whole Broadband Thing
- Comcast TV Everywhere WILL Work Outside The Home
- Netflix CEO: Netflix Is Broadband Killer App
- Joost's Remaining Pieces Sold
- TiVo Sees Record Customer Losses
- Verizon CEO: Hulu Will Be Dead Soon
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  aztecnology O Rly? Premium join:2003-02-12 Murrieta, CA
| Pipe Dream
I predict that this is a pipe dream...
If you can barely get dsl now off of existing infrastructure(where available), how long do you think it will take to get ftth! [text was edited by author 2003-05-29 17:28:15] | |
|  |   scarney Bbr Team Discovery - Bbr Team Rc5 Premium join:2001-02-18 Madison, WI clubs:  | Re: Pipe Dream or atleast! many...many, years away. american business dont want you to know about this kind of stuff, they like to feed us bit by bit. meanwhile milking us for money as long as possible. | |
|  |  |   Omega Displaced Ohioan Premium join:2002-07-30 Cheyenne, WY clubs:  | Re: Pipe Dream If broadband companies are going to offer these types of speeds, they have to get over the capping and download limits.
On a 40mbps line, with streamin TV shows, people could go over the limit very fast. | |
|  |  |  |   Tabasco Joe
@motorola.com | Re: Pipe Dream Actually 40 Mbps goes a long way. With MPEG4 an HDTV channel will take up 7 to 8 Mbps. So with 40 Mbps you can watch three HDTV channels and still have considerable data bandwidth. | |
|  |  |  |  |   jeffjs
join:2000-12-11 US
·Comcast
| Re: Pipe Dream MPEG2 SD streams are at 3.5Mbps to 4.5 Mbps, HD is at roughly 19Mbps. MPEG4\AVC\WM9 promises to half that, so you're looking at about 10Mbps per HD stream. 3 TV's in the home plus a data pipe = 32Mbps.
When that happens, life will be good.
Jeff -- AMD XP 2100+ EP-8RDA (224FSB x 10X), Compaq M700 Armada Laptop, and Toshiba e740 PocketPC all connected via BEFCMU10 and BEFW11S4v1, and a D-Link DWL-650. | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |   Tabasco Joe
@motorola.com | We have it running in our lab at 7 Mbps. | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |   jeffjs
join:2000-12-11 US | Re: Pipe Dream MPEG4 HD at 7Mbps using which Codec?
Jeff | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |   jeffjs
join:2000-12-11 US | Re: Pipe Dream Very interesting... all PC based? or any other devices decoding the content?
Jeff | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |   Tabasco Joe
@motorola.com | Re: Pipe Dream Special lab hardware but no reason it can't be productized for PC's, settop boxes, etc. | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |   jeffjs
join:2000-12-11 US | Re: Pipe Dream I've seen AVC demos, but nothing "real" yet. I hope to see some progress with AVC at Supercomm 2003.
Jeff | |
|   Givemedsl
@adelphia.net
from: oliphant5 
| FTTH, VDSL??? GIVE ME DSL - any form thereof I have heard this story way too many times. Here I am in Sterling, VA. Right near the "Internet Capital of the World", and the only option I have for BroadBand is Satellite, which would be alright if I had money coming out of every orifice. That not being the case, I will have to suffer with dialup for now. I am working with a few neighbours on setting up a neighbourhood Wi-Fi network. The next development over, a few hundred feet from my house can get DSL with obsecene speeds. VDSL, FTTF, F that. Just get us any form of DSL for now. | |
|  |  2farfromCO7
join:2000-10-14 Farmington, MI
| Re: FTTH, VDSL??? GIVE ME DSL - any form thereof I sure hope Verizon hasn't been your local phone provider for more than 3 months. Anybody who can't get DSL or cable and if forced to have dial-up is the ultimate sucker of the universe if they have service from their RBOC. I say switch from CLEC to CLEC and then back to the RBOC when they bribe you with enough getting switchover bonuses each time. Nobody should be making a profit off of your phone line. Heck, I will pay less than $165 for both local phone service and dial-up internet for the next 9 months combined. Nobody's making money off of that. | |
|  |   DaMaGeINC The Lan Man Premium join:2002-06-08 Greenville, SC clubs: | Not our fault you live out in the sticks! | |
|  |  |  2farfromCO7
join:2000-10-14 Farmington, MI
| Re: FTTH, VDSL??? GIVE ME DSL - any form thereof Who says he lives out in the "stickes". I live in an EXTREMELY WEATLHY EXTREMELY INNER INNER INNER INNER INNER INNER SUBURB of Detroit and won't have any broadband options probably ever. My apartment complex 400 units in about 1/16 sq mile(probably over 3500 people in my sq mile not exactly the sticks) built their own satellite system in the late 80s(a decision I'm sure they regret every day due to the rent incentives they are forced to give, I got 2 months free this year!!) and SBC(Same Bull Crap) is too stupid to not target our complex where they will have a monopoly. Instead they built an RT for 2 other complexes in the same sq mile(like I said, it's dense) which already had cable. I doubt they have 40% of the broadband customers there. If they deploy here, they get 100%....
NOW PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW THE RBOCs AREN'T IDIOTS | |
|  |  |   asdfdfdf
@xtraport.net
| People need to realize that this simplistic notion of city/rural, rich/poor, educated/uneducated has nothing to do with modern realities.
Many of the communities that can't get broadband are upper middle class, college educated, white collar, suburban communities. These people have all of the other modern services and are within throwing distance of all of the modern conveniences.
It is simply inaccurate to claim that everyone but the extremely rural population can get broadband. | |
|  |  |  |  nasadude
join:2001-10-05 Rockville, MD | a lot can happen "...but cautioned that they will take several years to get beyond trials."
A lot can happen in those "several years", including the Bells deciding not to deploy fiber.
I'll believe it when I see it, if I live that long. | |
|   Shipon Roflcopter Premium join:2001-12-05 Anaheim, CA
| Why is South Korea ahead of the US? Because of a little thing called "Regulation", that's what.
Face it, without being regulated deeply, companies are just worthless hunks of flab that refuse to try new things without the promise of profit. If the US did what South Korea did, we could all have 40 mbps connections to the home at 30-35 a month, but apparently the government believes in the obsolete idea of deregulation, so nothing is ever cheap, and companies are only getting greedier and greedier... -- OC Forum: They have overclocking, I have overblabbing.
Check my blog out: http://www.infinite-monkey.net | |
|  |  keyboard5684
join:2001-08-01 Youngsville, PA
·Teliax VOIP
·WestPAnet Inc.
·WestPAnet Inc. CA..
| Re: Why is South Korea ahead of the US? Because South Korea is so much smaller than the US. South Korea is the size of one US state. Maybe my numbers are wrong but the US has like 300 million people spread out over a huge space compared to 50 million of South Korea spread out over the size of one of our average states. Plus, the people in South Korea actually have more people that want it than the US.
So I think the US could easily wire the entire state of Pennsylvania if they only had PA to worry about and the majority actually wanted broadband. The truth is the majority of the people in the US are spread over a very large area and do not want broadband. [text was edited by author 2003-05-29 21:16:09] | |
|  |  |   calvoiper
join:2003-03-31 Belvedere Tiburon, CA
| Re: Why is South Korea ahead of the US? You're both right. Korea is smaller and more densely populated, but having the telco be a government supported monopoly that is guaranteed of recovering its investment sure does encourage investment.
Of course, when Bell was a monopoly, the investment that we guaranteed was ISDN. Win some, lose some.
Calvoiper -- VoIP--the death knell of remaining voice monopolies! | |
|  |  |   ryanl88 Premium join:2003-01-03 Fairfield, CA
| We have over 32 million in California, two of the largest cities in the world, Silicon Valley, lots of densly populated areas, and major backbone access. But we don't (overall) have these wonderful services. Granted the Sacramento area has FTTH with 10mbps at around $50/month, not to mention the provider of the FTTH isn't SBC or some big Telco, its SureWest (a CLEC). The more CLECs and ISPs that can offer these services, the sooner the telcos will take action.
-ryan | |
|  |   Shipon Roflcopter Premium join:2001-12-05 Anaheim, CA
| Sure...but remember this...if we were to at least regulate the industry enough to guarantee that they had enough money to wire everyone to get broadband at near-dialup prices...we probably would be near having at least 50% broadband penetration by now... -- OC Forum: They have overclocking, I have overblabbing.
Check my blog out: http://www.infinite-monkey.net | |
|  |   Shipon Roflcopter Premium join:2001-12-05 Anaheim, CA | Well..I have to admit that at least some people are taking action to offer high-speed internet at cheap prices(10mbps for 50 is a bargain). | |
|  |  |   dvd536 as Mr. Pink as they come Premium join:2001-04-27 Phoenix, AZ
| Re: Why is South Korea ahead of the US? said by Shipon : Well..I have to admit that at least some people are taking action to offer high-speed internet at cheap prices(10mbps for 50 is a bargain).
OOL used to do 10mbit for $29.99/mo. course that was only 10mbps downstream but thats true always on, not that pppoe crap most ftt* has. -- You can never be too rich, too thin or have too much Bandwidth | |
|   93254336 Weapons Of Masturbation Premium join:2001-10-20
| Yawn... Verizon can't even deliver ADSL via Litespan in most areas yet, and they're worried about deploying residential fiber-optic networks? What a joke...
- Dan -- This message has been modified from its original version. It has been formatted to fit your brain. | |
|  |   ezric
join:2003-05-29 Minden, LA
| Re: Yawn... Bellsouth has been using this for a while now. Much more reliable. [text was edited by author 2003-05-29 19:16:45] | |
|  djrobsd
join:2002-01-24 San Diego, CA
| How are they gonna pay for this? 250 million for one company to run fiber to their subscribers, when the company itself is only worth 500 mil! How are they gonna pay for all this? Has anyone priced out the WHOLESALE cost cable companies pay for each channel? Ie, how much does it cost in licensing fees for them to deliver your expanded basic channels like MTV, Lifetime, CNN, etc... You figure the average cable user probably pays $40 a month for their video services. I could be way off there, just a guess, 40 bucks divided by 250 million is 6,250,000. Assuming this company in question can sign 100,000 people up for this new service, it would take them 62 months to repay the costs, without interest, and that's ASSUMING that they are making 100% profit on the 40 bucks, if you say they only make 20 bucks profit after paying the cost of programming, then it would take then 124 months to repay it... And of course, all this is assuming they can sign 100,000 telco customers up for the service, they may only have 50,000 customers in their local market.
I bet when you price everything out, and then you factor in the amount you can charge your customers, that 250 million bucks would probably take them 30 years to repay, if ever. | |
|  |   calvoiper
join:2003-03-31 Belvedere Tiburon, CA
| Re: How are they gonna pay for this? Let's put some rough numbers on this. Winnipeg has about 650,000 people, so this would mean an investment of $375-400 per person. With an average household size of 3 (per demographic info on a Winnipeg info website) this means an average investment of about $1200 per household. If the company has a 10% cost of funds, paying the debt service is $120/yr./hsehld if they signup everybody, or $10/month.
Figuring from there is easy. If they sign up half, it's $20/mo. If they get a third, $30/mo., etc.
If they get 25% of Winnipeg to signup for phone and broadband over this system, $40 of that monthly package would go to debt service--and the gravy from offering wildly improved cable (digital, PPV, etc.) isn't counted here. Better penetration only increases the pleasure.
It's doable. Frankly, I hope they make it.
Calvoiper -- VoIP--the death knell of remaining voice monopolies! | |
|   zabes63
join:2003-04-05 Batavia, IL
| Hey! wait a minute! As I recall, SBC described the Tri-Cities FTTH proposal as "doomed to failure" and "too big of a gamble".
Now they're saying that it could work?!
What in the universe changed so drastically that this is now possible?
Could it have been that SBC is lying the entire time that it campaigns against Muni-FTTH?! -- Click here to visit Tri-City Broadband | |
|  |  |  tmeehan
join:2001-03-27 Richmond, VA
| Distance, distance and yet more distance. Impressive. Wonder how VZE will jump the hurdle of 16,400ft to provide me a 1500/128 provision?
Meanwhile, Comcast is spaming my voicemail with offers to come back and running local teevee ads promising a 'self install kit' delivered to my home tonight if I call before 8:00pm. Complete with VZE colors, no less!
Not that I'm going to go back, but VZE has one hell of an uphill battle. | |
|  |  keyboard5684
join:2001-08-01 Youngsville, PA
·Teliax VOIP
·WestPAnet Inc.
·WestPAnet Inc. CA..
| Re: Distance, distance and yet more distance. The fiber can reach much more distance but that really does not mean they will actually care to run it to your house.
One thing is desire. If you live in an actual city then you probably already have DSL or something available to you. There is no real financial reason for these companies to actually cover more areas, they will just cover them differently by offering more services. | |
|   getMoe
@health.net
| Adding to the cost discussion Also if every joe out there that owned a computer was atleast computer savy enough that they didn't need to call their provider to get help to set up their email, pppoe, nic, or configure their machine, these providers could cut a lot of their costs manning call centers and spend the money on infrastructure. I do live out in the sticks, but it is a subdevelopment of about 5000 homes out near a lake and your only option for anything is satelite period. SBC wont even build you an isdn circuit out where I live. | |
|  C4Xplosive
join:2002-02-21 Vancouver, WA | doesnt matter With Americas current economic crisis and the greedy whores in this capitalist nation we will most likely get FTTH ten years after all of Africa has Fiber connections. | |
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