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AT&T Meets Investors on Lightspeed
Lays out IPTV details...

AT&T met analysts and investors today in Manhattan (and via conference call) for the first time since becoming the new AT&T. Investors have been uneasy with Verizon and SBC's next-gen deployment plans, because results and profit (particularly IPTV) aren't going to be immediate. While a lot of this we've already seen, a significant chunk of the presentation (see pdf, pages 84-114) focused on "Project Lightspeed" AT&T's plan to pass 18 million homes with VDSL and IPTV by 2008 (3 million this year, 9 million in 2007). In regards to IPTV, the analyst report states they'll scale to 21 markets by the end of this year, and the package could eventually include 300 channels, (3SD 1HD streams), 45 music channels, and "hundreds of hours" of on-demand programming.

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Placebo
Premium Member
join:2005-12-14
Huntley, IL

Placebo

Premium Member

Max 6 mbps?


Morfein
Lead Peon
Premium Member
join:2004-09-08
Brownsburg, IN

Morfein

Premium Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

I must have missed the 6Mbps you are talking about. I can already get 6 down from at&t/yahoo dsl. So I'm guessing you misread something?????
rugby
I think I know it all.
join:2000-09-26
Plainfield, IN

rugby

Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

page 110

Placebo
Premium Member
join:2005-12-14
Huntley, IL

Placebo to Morfein

Premium Member

to Morfein
Page 110 of the pdf:

»library.corporate-ir.net ··· 06_c.pdf
audiog
join:2004-08-09
Detroit, MI

audiog

Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

that is in addition to IPTV.
jimbo21503
join:2004-05-10
Euclid, OH

jimbo21503 to Morfein

Member

to Morfein
I have already heard about this. If you get their IPTV solution, it will suck up so much bandwidth that your internet will only be able to go up to 6mbps.

I have also heard that SBC... ATT will allow you to get tiers up to 25mbps if you do not get IPTV. Of course this is a rumor. They may stick with 6 max for a while. I think it will hurt them in the long run.

Either way, I am switching to cable after my current contract expires (in about 5 months). My local cable co. is offering 10mbps for the same price as ATTs 6mbps tier. As far as I am concerned, ATT is no longer competing and therefore will no longer be my internet provider (on top of Whiteache asking Google/Yahoo to pay fees).

en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

en102

Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

my cable company here is too pricey, and I don't like M$, so I'll stick with DirecTv for now, and see what comes up in another year.
bogey7806
join:2004-03-19
Here

bogey7806 to jimbo21503

Member

to jimbo21503
ADSL2+ allows pair bonding same as the much beloved and championed DOCSIS 3.0

justbits
DSL is dead. Long live DSL!
Premium Member
join:2003-01-08
Chicago, IL

justbits

Premium Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

By the way, VDSL2 can be bonded too. I'm betting we'll see bonded VDSL2 getting deployed eventually.

--justbits
bogey7806
join:2004-03-19
Here

bogey7806

Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

Hmmm... VDSL2's base rate is 100Mb/s. Isn't DOCSIS 3.0 only 38 Mb/s with bonding available?

I know I said 30 in a previous thread but I just looked up the numbers.

justbits
DSL is dead. Long live DSL!
Premium Member
join:2003-01-08
Chicago, IL

justbits

Premium Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

From this site:
»www.cablemodem.com/primer/
DOCSIS 3.0 will increase the capacity to a minimum of 160 Mbps downstream to customers and by a minimum of 120 Mbps upstream.
Besides that, the term bonding, when used in DOCSIS 3.0, seems to be on a frequency domain basis in the same cable. They're bonding multiple previously unused "TV channels" (you can think of them that way) together to get more bandwidth on the same coax. I don't believe DOCSIS 3.0 has the capability to run two coax cables to your home and double your speed. VDSL2 will be able to do bonding by using a different, independent pair of telephone lines.

But notice that with VDSL2, upstream-vs-distance chart (»www.convergedigest.com/b ··· y=Loop)? 5mbps at 5000 feet from the RT is likely the "sweet spot" that ATaT is trying to provide. This way, they can recondition neighborhoods to bring everybody to within 5000 feet of a RT and still provide a package that "scales" for everybody without overtaxing the existing network infrastructure. I believe that when it first rolls out, it will be very unlikely for it to be packaged with anything over 2mpbs of upload. In fact, I suspect they'll align VDSL2 data with the existing packages at 6.0mbps/768kbps initially (with a matching price tag)... unless future cable products inspire competition on the upload bandwidth side of the world.

Even if everyone were conditioned to be 3000 feet from the RT or CO, the VDSL2 max upload still only reaches 30mbps, compared to DOCSIS 3.0's 120mbps. But, one thing to consider is that DOCSIS 3.0 is still a shared medium. Everyone in the neighborhood has to share that pipe. I don't think they'll sell the pipe at the max speed because customers would never actually obtain that speed if other people are using the shared pipe at the same time.

--justbits
justbits

justbits to Placebo

Premium Member

to Placebo
According to the projections for ADSL2+ (24mbps) and VDSL (50mbps) and VDSL2 (100mbps), the 6mbps estimate is only for the Internet data portion of the DSL connection. The rest is for HDTV. They want 1 HD channel and 3 SD channels. This is likely just a conservative entry-to-market ploy. I'm sure this 1 HD, 3SD configuration will change in the future.

HD channels come in between 12 (720p) to 16 mbps (1080i) MPEG2 compressed.
Or 3mbps (480i-SD), 6 (720p), 9 (960p), to 12 mbps (1080i) MPEG4 compressed. I believe the Microsoft solution uses MP4 compresion.

Given those approximate numbers, you see anywhere from 20 to 25 mbps dedicated to video bandwidth.

Besides that, the 6mbps max fits within the current bandwidth of the DSL "products" sold today.

I'm sure that the current 6mbps target for Internet data is a conservative marketplace entry starting point. Why sell a 50 mbps VDSL2 Internet connection today for more than $500/mo (a conceptually percieved value of 50mbps compared to the 6mbps Expert Pro package sold today) when you can sell 6mpbs for a lower price that fits linearly with the current price scale. The bonus is that they sell us more bandwidth without overutilizing their new backend network, while maintaining the currently "attainable" perception of the price of bandwidth.

Remember... when ADSL was first being sold, it was for 128kbps/128kbps speeds? Some of those original lines that were rated at 128/128 then and now were always capable of doing 8mbps/1mbps. Fiber and VDSL/VDSL2 are going to be sold to the masses the same way. Start by selling less bandwidth than you really are actually able to provide... every few months release new DSL "products." (Yes, I realize there is a good amount of backend network upgrading going on at the same time.)

Another way to look at this is that by not fully utilizing the capacity of ADSL right up front, they were able to continously "upgrade" our bandwidth and extend the functional life of ADSL while skipping ADSL2+ and VDSL and jumping right to VDSL2 and FTTP.

--justbits

maartena
Elmo
Premium Member
join:2002-05-10
Orange, CA

maartena

Premium Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

I believe that IPTV works a lot different, it doesn't use part of the bandwidth at all, but it uses its own protocol.

I have 2 TV's in the house, and a DVR that can record two things at the same time, and I can watch TV on the other TV as well. You cannot possibly tell me that AT&T is rolling out a network that will only allow me to record two HDTV (2x12=24?) shows at a time on a DVR (and yes, all the main networks broadcast shows on equal timeslots I will want to see) and there not being any space for another channel to be watched in the bedroom, while cooking dinner, or in the kids rooms that want to watch nickolodeon?

Just like Cable TV and Cable Modems are separated out, I think IPTV is not a good name (neither is Cable "modem" technically) and that it uses its own set of protocols and operates more like regular cable TV.

If it is true what you are saying and there is only 25 Mbps for video (which is 2 HDTV channels being watched at the same time), AT&T is already building an obsolete network.

My neighbour has 4 TV's (2 of which HDTV), all hooked up to digital cable (livingroom, bedroom, 2 kids rooms) and has a DVR (dual tuner) in the iving room, so there could be as many as 3 HDTV programs (2 in livingroom and 1 in bedroom) and 2 SD programs coming into their livingroom at the same time. The same is pretty much possible with satellite AND with FIOSTV from Verizon. And on top of that they have 8 Mbps cable (RoadRunner premium).

If that setup can't work on the AT&T connection due to lack of bandwidth, I think I either don't understand it right, or AT&T is making a big mistake!
silica
join:2004-05-20
Duluth, GA

silica

Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

If you want 3 HDTV channels simultaneously for viewing and DVR, it isn't going to work with Lightspeed's 25 Mbps. Even at the optimistic 6 Mbps MPEG4 compression, that will already consume 18 Mbps.

IPTV is completely different, not from IP, but from current TV which is rf modulated, whether today's Fios, cable, over the air broadcast, i.e. all signals are broadcast simultaneously and you tune into one frequency (like radio). With IPTV, you only get one or a few channels at a time, not hundreds at a time. So your request has to go upstream to a server, which then has to switch your signal to the new channel. Channel change time is an issue with IPTV.

So, you do add everything together, e.g. 6 Mbps (for one HDTV channel) + 6 Mbps (for DVR) + 2 Mbps (one SD) + 2 Mbps (another SD) + 6 Mbps internet + headroom = 25 Mbps. Alternative: lay fiber to the curb, maybe bond two channels and get up to 50 Mbps. Or, go FTTH all the way! It's a gamble either way. Build on the cheap and pray that the technology isn't obsolete (for the masses, it's already obsolete for you!) in a few years when people hopefully want several HDTV channels and 30-50 Mbps internet; or spend like Verizon and pray that enough people sign up to justify spending $500-1000 per home.
bogey7806
join:2004-03-19
Here

bogey7806

Member

Re: Max 6 mbps?

Here's the lovely part of Bells plan which every shortsighted person hates.

Laying FTTC, you have optical to the remote is converted to copper then split into a DISCS/MX then is converted back to optical and sent to the curb which is converted back into copper. The next progression is just lay extra fiber pairs to the remote, match up each pedestal to a free fiber, run a fiber strand to each house from the pedestal, change out the CO and customer end and voila.... FIOS servide at a staggered cost.

Meanwhile DISCS/MX users would just have to suffer with 100Mb/s

AlphaOne
I see
Premium Member
join:2004-02-21

AlphaOne to maartena

Premium Member

to maartena
One word: compression
Expand your moderator at work

Irun Man
Premium Member
join:2002-10-18
Millsboro, DE

Irun Man

Premium Member

big deal

The new AT&T, Verizon and a few munis are making some inroads with fiber. Sadly I still live in (sigh) Frontier Tel territory... I don't seriously believe we'll see either of those technologies her in my lifetime. They just rolled out 3MBPS DSL here a couple of months ago.
biteman5
join:2001-02-02
Grand Rapids, MI

biteman5

Member

Were is it now

Does anyone know of a website that updates on were LightSpeed is now and were it will be next?????????

FFH5
Premium Member
join:2002-03-03
Tavistock NJ

FFH5

Premium Member

Cautious about AT&T consumer interest

All business presentations to Wall St emphasize the positive, including the speed at which they plan to rollout Project Lightspeed. But one of the slides I saw gives me pause. And that is that 77% of AT&T revenue comes from their business customers and only 23% comes from the consumer. And I'd bet an arm and a leg that an even higher percentage of their profits comes from the business side. That just means that if they have a problem meeting profit projections for any quarter that the 1st costs to be cut will be on the consumer side. Project Lightspeed is therefore at risk if the economy slows down for any reason. So I would be a little more conservative in projecting how fast Lightspeed rolls out than what was presented today on Wall St.

packetscan
Premium Member
join:2004-10-19
Bridgeport, CT

packetscan

Premium Member

Re: Cautious about AT&T consumer interest

I'm starting to think you are a lobbyist.

footballdude
Premium Member
join:2002-08-13
Imperial, MO

1 recommendation

footballdude

Premium Member

Re: Cautious about AT&T consumer interest

How does being able to read a presentation and apply a practical knowledge of business make someone a lobbyist?

FFH5
Premium Member
join:2002-03-03
Tavistock NJ

FFH5

Premium Member

Re: Cautious about AT&T consumer interest

said by footballdude:

How does being able to read a presentation and apply a practical knowledge of business make someone a lobbyist?
And you are right. I am not a lobbyist and never was. I am retired, but spent the last 10 yrs on the job negotiating with telecomm vendors for services. So I know how they think.

packetscan
Premium Member
join:2004-10-19
Bridgeport, CT

packetscan to footballdude

Premium Member

to footballdude
Easy..

His View seems to side with MEGACORPS *cough great */cough idea's most of the time.

Thus the lobby comment
grandpinaple8
join:2006-01-03
New York, NY

1 edit

1 recommendation

grandpinaple8

Member

Re: Cautious about AT&T consumer interest

It is just to costly and not enough return, or the return is decent, but they will immediately have to upgrade again.

2kmaro
Think

join:2000-07-11
Oklahoma City, OK

1 recommendation

2kmaro to packetscan

to packetscan
[drag moderator soap box into the forum]
Ok - let's drop the personal stuff. In the first place, I don't see packetscan See Profile insulting anyone's integrity. Not if you actually read what he wrote here:
said by packetscan:
I'm starting to think you are a lobbyist.
Simply stating an opinion/observation/feeling. Nothing at all wrong with that. It actually brings out a question which FFH5 See Profile responded rationally and calmly to later.

People have opinions - they may be expressed here at BBR so long as they don't incite to riot or personally attack any other visitor/member at the site in the process.

Thank You
[puts moderator soap box away]

mdlthomas
join:2000-04-24
Clarksville, TN

mdlthomas to FFH5

Member

to FFH5
Don't be so sure. T has many government contracts that keep them floating. As long as they don't pull a WorldCon, they will be propped up by our federal gov't. T just won a 1Bil+ contract, then the GAO suspended it. They will win it again.

Oh wait, MCI still got awarded contracts AFTER the scandal. Nevermind.
JonR800
Premium Member
join:2003-08-06
Farmington, MI

JonR800

Premium Member

Let me get this straight.

1 HD stream. So if you have multiple HD sets you can not stream to both at the same time? Or if you attempt to record an HD stream and flip to another HD channel with your DVR you can not? Also it leaves us at 6 Mbps internet access.....

So what are the advantages again??? The services outlined are outdated as of a year ago. LAME.
bmn
? ? ?

join:2001-03-15
hiatus

bmn

Re: Let me get this straight.

Yeah, I'm none too psyched about this annoucement... Having multiple HD sets in our home, where people are probably going to watch multiple HD streams, this product certainly lags behind...

Of course I live in Bellsouth-land where it will be next century before we see anything this interesting...

Gimme a break
@hstntx.swbell.ne

Gimme a break to JonR800

Anon

to JonR800
You guys are watching way too much TV in your households if one HDTV channel at a time isn't adequate for now.

Gimme a break....let the HDTV be for programs that make it worthwhile...send the kids to watch low def cartoons I don't think anything will be lost.

TelecomJunky2
Premium Member
join:2005-12-12
Kansas City, MO

TelecomJunky2

Premium Member

lightspeed

I sure hope the people on here begging for Project Lightspeed to come to their area are not the same concerned with At&t's new two-tier Internet tax plans.

You should be going with anything but At&t, Verizon, or BellSouth.

Get cable or independent DSL and VoIP.

»hotcarl.diaryland.com
jimbo21503
join:2004-05-10
Euclid, OH

jimbo21503

Member

Re: lightspeed

Unfortunately, not everyone has the alternatives available to them.

As for me, I stated this above, I am going to switch back to my cable co as soon as my contract expires.

I used to be interested in and wanted Lightspeed, now it just seems like a half-ass, half-hearted attept at satisfying a bunch of couch potatos. They couldn't give a hoot about people who are looking for bandwidth.

Many companies are holding off on providing SD TV over the internet untill speeds in the US increase.
Guess which company(ies) customers will be left in the dust in a year or two?
DMS1
join:2005-04-06
Plano, TX

DMS1

Member

3SD and 1HD stream

Only allowing 3SD and 1HD stream per property doesn't seem anywhere near enough. I would have thought that if you were starting deployment of a new network now you should aim to have enough bandwidth for 5 1080p HD streams to make it future proof. I can easily see the price of a 1080p HD receiver dropping to a level comparable in real terms to a decent SD receiver now, within the next decade.

Having said that, this would need about 60Mbps of bandwidth if using MPEG4. a GPON-based FTTP solution could handle this, but I doubt any xDSL variant will ever come close.
bogey7806
join:2004-03-19
Here

bogey7806

Member

Re: 3SD and 1HD stream

Why future proof something that will be upgraded later to handle the future?

And VDSL2 handles 100Mb/s if within 1000 ft of the optical pedestal at your curb. If you're within a mile of a copper remote you'll come up short at 50mb/s

dadkins
Can you do Blu?
MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA

dadkins

MVM

Ok, here it is again...

... if this is going to need xxmbps to deliver 1HD and 3SD channels + 6mbps of internet, WTF kind of bandwidth is being pumped into my Comcast cable?

Tell me how this is appealing in any way?

••••
Zorglub8
join:2000-11-18
Fremont, CA

Zorglub8

Member

The way I see it

I'm going to stick to DirecTV and plain DSL 1.5/384 since it seems to work fine for the time being.

Geminimind
Premium Member
join:2003-12-20
Sacramento, CA

Geminimind

Premium Member

Re: The way I see it

Yeah me too except I have pro

MTBikerChris
Premium Member
join:2001-08-28
Erie, CO

MTBikerChris

Premium Member

what about naked DSL??

what about naked DSL?? for them to roll out fiber and tv here in TX they where told to roll naked DSL . i have not seen that yet.
BiggA
Premium Member
join:2005-11-23
Central CT
·Frontier FiberOp..
Asus RT-AC68

BiggA

Premium Member

ugh

$4.4B total? Thats pathetic. For ATT, it sould to 20B or 50B a year for the next 5 years. They need to get 100% coverage at 1000mbps internet, plus unlimited HD streams and a few phone lines. They need to figure out that what the cable company is offering will kick the butt of any VDSL IPTV system, but that their fiber could kick the butt of any cable system. That, and cable it not even fully untilized yet, with next generation technologies of 50mbps internet AND video at the SAME time, while keeping older DOCSIS users on the DOCSIS system at 10mbps, while not degrading the higher end user's connections. Also, the digital phone technologies are supposed to be getting better. Maybe the VDSL would be cool, if they offer it faster than cable, but the IPTV will suck, and cable will just get faster to stay on top.

ATT executives: it is as simple as this: drop fiber to the home with Fios-like technology or lose a lot of market share.

allineedtosay
@nycmny.fios.verizon.

allineedtosay

Anon

It speaks for itself....

Until ATT/SBC see the light (which is to say ultra-high-speed-fiber)

BOYCOTT ATT/SBC! DO NOT BUY A SINGLE SERVICE FROM THEM!
That includes the 50+million cingular wireless.. as soon as your out of contract, SWITCH, and take your number with you!!!!

odreian615
join:2006-01-18
Chicago, IL

odreian615

Member

They need to hurry up with fios

I am not worried about HDTV yet(2008) just give me 25mbs and I am good plus the Nintindo Revolution(cant wait till its release date ) wont use HD anyway