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100Mbps Within 5 Years?
Major RBOC CTOs talk bandwidth projections
(old news - 05:12PM Tuesday Apr 25 2006)
tags: bandwidth · telco
Light Reading asks executives at Qwest, Verizon and AT&T how much bandwidth the end-customer will need in the home in the next-five years. Qwest, though they've got the weakest upgrade plans, suggests 100Mbps is a good goal, as does Verizon, the most aggressive telco. AT&T pegs something closer to 25-40Mbps as the magic number. "We're seeing, on project Lightspeed, you know 30 to 40 megabits [per second] at 3,000 feet [away from the central office], so we’re not too concerned about that."

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Forums » 100Mbps Within 5 Years?
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ropeguru
Premium
join:2001-01-25
Bridgeport, WV
clubs:

I can see it now....

100Mbps downstream with 768k upstream...
--
FWD#: 223611

juicelee
Premium
join:2000-12-04
Hacienda Heights, CA
clubs:

Re: I can see it now....

That's DSL. Cable will be 1gig down and 384k up.
jebba2005

join:2005-01-13
Portland, ME

Re: I can see it now....

I had a long day and the first two posts made me fall out of my chair.

Thank you.
deepblackmag

join:2004-12-27
00000

Re: I can see it now....

You guys are dreaming, think of the price of bandwidth! We will be lucky to see 256kbps up. And everybody will have a 5 gig/mo cap thats not in any documents. And all out-of-provider connections will be throttled down to 50k/s Yay for the future of the internet in america.

BloodRoses
Gods lend wings to tainted hearts
Premium
join:2003-03-17
clubs:
·Cox HSI
·Verizon Online DSL

But we're the BMW of broadband omgz lolerskates. Actually they kind of are, the M3 has plenty of peak power, but absolute rubbish torque!
--
Cheers,
Stephanie - www.GlitterFaerie.com

mikef1
Mike

join:2004-10-28
Littlestown, PA

said by ropeguru See Profile :

100Mbps downstream with 768k upstream...
Yeah and 85Mbps of that 100 will be used for video only, the TV stations they will try to sell you.
--
mike
HouseOfMike
PDXPLT

join:2003-12-04
Banks, OR


1 edit

Broadband is not the same as internet access

said by mikef1 See Profile :

Yeah and 85Mbps of that 100 will be used for video only, the TV stations they will try to sell you.
Yes!!!!!!!

Too many miss that little "detail". To the telcos, "broadband" does not equal "internet access". To them, "broadband" is a channel to sell you services like TV. They'll use as little of it for unmetered internet access as they can get away with in the market.

Remember that when AT&T owned their cable business, they called it "AT&T Broadband", even though very little of their bandwidth was used for internet access. To the telcos, "broadband" is not about providing "fat dumb pipe" access to consumers.
Kearnstd
Elf Wizard
Premium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ

Lightspeed, 3000ft?

quote:
We're seeing, on project Lightspeed, you know 30 to 40 megabits [per second] at 3,000 feet [away from the central office], so we’re not too concerned about that
thats not even a mile, shouldnt they make it that fast no matter what range from the CO? im sure the tech is there if they just rip out all the 1950s copper.
--
[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports
yabos

join:2003-02-16
Ingersoll, ON

Re: Lightspeed, 3000ft?

Sure but if they do that they might as well lay fiber instead of new copper which they're not willing to do at this point.

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
·RoadRunner Cable
·DSL EXTREME

Re: Lightspeed, 3000ft?

I live less than 1 mile from the CO, and I had 3000/512 (couldn't qualify for 6000/608). It was recently downgraded to 1984/512 as there was too much noise on the line (outside). Might as well say 1/10 may get 30-40Mbps
older dog
Premium
join:2005-06-09
Norwich, NY

Re: Lightspeed, 3000ft?

How is repair where you live. I am at 18000 plus and connect at 1600, am only limited to that because the town has not yet been upgraded.
RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11
It's from the fiber terminal not the CO. Those are going in the 'hood and almost all LS customers are within 3000 feet of one (in theory).
--
Toolmaster of La Grange.

Wyattx17
Wyatt
Premium
join:2004-04-21
Stockton, CA

Distance?

So only the closest 10 will be able to even think about getting it.
felixml

join:2003-02-19
Sherman Oaks, CA

Re: Distance?

and nothing if UR over 3K, like everyone in LA is.
thx 4 nothing

gatorkram
Spelling and Grammer impared
Premium
join:2002-07-22
Winterville, NC
clubs:
·Embarq
·linode

2006

Here is it, 2006, and we still have what I consider to be very poor broadband options here in the US.

I don't see us going from the very slow speeds now, all the way to 100mbit in just five years, no way.

I'd love to know what the projections were five years ago today, for the speeds we would be having now.

I remember a friend of mine, in 2000, having 1500/128 cable.
--
Give me bandwidth or give me death!

wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace

join:2004-08-07
New York, NY
·Verizon FIOS
·Sprint Mobile Broa..
·RoadRunner Cable
·BroadVoice

Re: 2006

said by gatorkram See Profile :

Here is it, 2006, and we still have what I consider to be very poor broadband options here in the US.

I don't see us going from the very slow speeds now, all the way to 100mbit in just five years, no way.

I'd love to know what the projections were five years ago today, for the speeds we would be having now.

I remember a friend of mine, in 2000, having 1500/128 cable.
First of all you need to look at it in terms of some customers, not all. Some customers right now are getting 30/5 with FIOS for around $40, so it is quite feasible that those same customers will see 100/10 or something in 5 years. I can guarantee you however, that there will still be many millions of people still on dial up in 5 years so those projections are being reported through rose colored glasses.
--
Now THATS superfluous!!
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Here
Yea imagine that. We gave the telco's a couple generations to build out a national network and yet in 5 years they've failed to completely replace it.

aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS

O Rly?

- AT&T pegs something closer to 25-40Mbps as the magic number.
"We're seeing, on project Lightspeed, you know 30 to 40 megabits [per second] at 3,000 feet [away from the central office], so we're not too concerned about that."

They can't even make lightspeed work at 25Mbps...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Transmaster
Don't Blame Me I Voted For Bill and Opus

join:2001-06-20
Cheyenne, WY
·Qwest.net


1 edit

No wait!

100Mbps in 10 years, NO! 40Mbps in three years, wrong, 1Ghz in 12 years, wait a minute 50Mbps in 6 years, but of course it will be 3Ghz in 17 years. But Right now it is 1,101,431,567 BS's per micro-second. In other words until you open up your network connection wizard and it tells you your speed is now 100Mbps these chicken in every pot promises are just a bunch of bovine scatology.
--
Low voltage Tech's are wimps, Real tech's use 45 pound filament transformers, plate voltages no less then 2400 volts with at least 10 amp's lighting 8877 triodes...BPL I'm coming to get you.
JonR800
Premium
join:2003-08-06
Farmington, MI

Re: No wait!

I have no idea what you just said.

Ghz? Chicken in every pot? Connection Wizard 100Mbps? Bovine scatology?
grandpinaple

join:2006-01-03
New York, NY

Re: No wait!

I think by GHZ he meant speed measured in GHZ because bps will become to big a number. Bovine scatalogy is just him being an ass and calling the predictions bullshit.

Transmaster
Don't Blame Me I Voted For Bill and Opus

join:2001-06-20
Cheyenne, WY
·Qwest.net

Re: No wait!

said by grandpinaple See Profile :

I think by GHZ he meant speed measured in GHZ because bps will become to big a number. Bovine scatology is just him being an ass and calling the predictions bullshit.
Sorry I should realize not everyone is in the same wavelength I am on, For years we have had all of these promises of X speed in X number of years and to date they have not happened. The only area where the speed is increasing is the amount of down right Bull Sh*t they are trying to feed us. As I hope you remember it was General Schwarzkopf who coined the term Bovine Scatology. As for a "chicken in every pot" study the politics of the 1930's depression era and specifically the cartoons of Al Capp"s Li'l Abner, he was the Shoe, Bloomcounty, of the time. In this cartoon the politicians where always promising if they where elected there would be a Chicken in every pot, understand at the time having chicken for dinner was a fancy thing Tyson Chicken didn't exist so you had to order a chicken from the butcher or butcher your own. You can all thank me for your morning history lesson
--
Low voltage Tech's are wimps, Real tech's use 45 pound filament transformers, plate voltages no less then 2400 volts with at least 10 amp's lighting 8877 triodes...BPL I'm coming to get you.
grandpinaple

join:2006-01-03
New York, NY

Re: No wait!

Oh so you were comparing the rate of promised speed increases to the rate of BS increase. Can't you technically measure bandwidth in GHZ since on things like coaxial 6mhz is 24mbits aproximately.

Transmaster
Don't Blame Me I Voted For Bill and Opus

join:2001-06-20
Cheyenne, WY

Re: No wait!

I should have used gig instead of Ghz was working with one coffee starved brain cell this morning
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Here

Re: O Rly?

ADSL2+ works just fine at 25mb/s

Rick
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT
clubs:

I think that

AT&T probably has the right answer to this question and
20 to 25,000k connections will be the norm.

Certainly there will be those who can get more and those companies who can deliver it but on a widespread basis I think there's too much that needs to be done in terms of infrastructure to make anything higher the norm, not to mention having the majority of consumers need or even want more.

Look at the number of people still out there on dialup and who apparently find it ok for their needs. And, that's not to mention the huge numbers of DSL customers getting 768k to 1500k.

If they were to suddenly see the norm being even 10,000k, they'd probably die in their seats of a heart attack.
And so, what will ever convince them or even the industry that somehow the standard really would need to be 100,000k in 5 years?
That's just too soon for those kinds of numbers for many people and is just some over optimistic flight to fantasy.

And again, that's not to say that SOME won't have it, need it..(maybe)..and want to pay for it.
There has long been the companies out there who have raised the bar for everyone else..(the OOL's of the world)..and now Verizon with their FIOS will lead the way in that area.

But, tell that to my cousin, who i just can't get to ditch AOL dialup for anything. It's the greatest thing since sliced bread to her and she wants nor needs anything else.
And this woman TRIED Cable Broadband, and cancelled it!

And, there's millions and millions of people out there just like her.

100,000k connections?

LOL...they still want to hear the modem dialing into their ISP.
--
The life you help save just might be your own Team Discovery

startshot
Where's Da Beaver?

join:2001-05-07
Prince Albert, SK

Um, why don't they actually listen to the customers

At this point, they should be talking more about:

1)Ensuring Quality of service (uptime and consistant speeds)
2)Equal up/down speed transmissions (a true connection)
3)Connecting those who are not connected to broadband
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Here

Re: Um, why don't they actually listen to the customers

They are. DSL has excellent up-time and is growing in availability every day.
ace41690

join:2003-01-24
Northfield, CT

why?

What on earth would the average user do with 100Mbps?

soundtank
Holy Cow
Premium
join:2006-02-07
Bloomingdale, IL

Re: why?

watch more porn

See 6 replies to this post
dzjepp

join:2002-10-23
River Grove, IL

That's what I would like to know. Exactly what services will be rolled out in the next 5 years to make it worthwile for the average joe? They will need to find something very irresistable to the end-user, so that they don't spend 100% of the time downloading warez with those speeds.

dadkins
Can you do Blu?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA
·Comcast

Re: why?

AT some point, warez gets redundant. There is only so much crap to download(trust me!).

Swapping Full 9GB DVDs will also get to a point where anyone that did want it, has already downloaded it, or seen it, and doesn't want it any more.

I wish for 10/10 for an internet connection. That is all most of us will ever really need. The rest of that bandwidth will be used for TV and whatnot.

What I would really like to see, if I'm not watching tv, is for that to be generic/raw bandwidth - available for use for other purposes(internet).
--
Think outside the Fox... Opera

Cjaiceman
Premium,MVM
join:2004-10-12
Parker, CO
·Comcast Workplace
·Comcast

Re: why?

We all should just move to houston, they have a company called OEN that is offering 10/10 fiber as a base speed, then they go 25/25,50/50,75/75 and the grand daddy 100/100! For under $160/month if you get their IPTV and VoIP. So, Comcast/Qwest/VZ could be out of the picture if they expand to other locations. OEN provides it all for a reasonable price.

*Drools about 100/100 fiber internet...*

Also, on a side note each house gets 1Gbps for TV/Internet/Phone, so if you get 100/100 internet that leaves about 900/900 for HDTV + Phone... LOTS OF POSSIBILITIES with that much bandwidth....

»www.4fiber.tv
NoOneButMe

join:2001-08-24
TX
you got it 10mb by 10mb would be all i need to
older dog
Premium
join:2005-06-09
Norwich, NY

What %

3000 feet, what percent will that cover.

Repair techs tell me My ISP is shooting for 20Mbps with in 2 years
I don't think I will hold my breath, not even for these much more Conservative speeds.

rachelsfx

join:2004-09-27
Pensacola, FL

Re: What %

About 15% of the customer base.
Zorglub

join:2000-11-18
Fremont, CA

I'd be happy with 2 up and down

and low latency. Right now, I don't need 10 MBps down, but I sure could use a couple megabits up to upload my family pics.

And low latency is a must for online gaming. As for all the high def stuff, I don't care. I'm going to install an antenna on my roof and just pick up the HD networks for free. I don't have time to watch TV anyways, and I'm not going to pay another $10-15 a month to DirecTV to watch the same stuff I can watch for free off the air.
grandpinaple

join:2006-01-03
New York, NY

Too much is Not enough

100/100 is still to slow they need to catch up with hard drive speeds.
Westofhere

join:2005-04-07
Monroe, WA

We already sell it in Seattle

www.invisa.net
hurfy
Premium
join:2002-08-06
Spokane, WA

Re: We already sell it in Seattle

Geee, thanks for reminding me i am on the same DSL lines as 8 years ago.....

hehe, office just has a couple remote users on a 10-year-old unix app that was probably built for 1200 baud modems. House could get more than i have if i let qwest trash my ping times. More of a gamer than downloader, so i never 'upgraded'. Think i can pull 3-6m if i wanted, or 1.5m for same cost

So, i'll predict 640k in 5 years hehe

Seems like if they want to include HDTV and phone they should crank it above 25 tho.
sunny8294
Shqipe

join:2001-03-15
Localhost ;)

cool

alright! finally some HD porn
--
.:: Sunny ::.

lonnyb
lurking no longer
Premium
join:2004-01-25
Elizabethtown, KY
clubs:

when cable came out...

...many people were asking why would anyone want downloads in the megabit range.

93254336
Weapons Of Masturbation
Premium
join:2001-10-20

What they didn't tell you...


To get 100Mbps, you'll have to move into the basement of your Central Office.

- Dan
--
"That which does not kill us makes us stranger."

lonnyb
lurking no longer
Premium
join:2004-01-25
Elizabethtown, KY
clubs:

Be a central office!

heheheheheheheheheh

Cyberian75

join:2004-03-16
Beaverton, OR

Asia

South Korea and Japan will probably have 10-100Gbps by then.
--
Michael
Paul Christe

join:2004-09-20
Leesburg, VA

100 MBPS

`I have FIOS and it's 1.9 MBPS up and 5.3MBPS down. Used to have Cable but it was expensive and went down too much (Adelphia). I live3+ miles from the CO witth Fiber to my house-All for $34.95 a month. The rumor is that Verizon is going to crank up the speed to 2 up and 15MBPS down and leave the price the same. It's competition grand!

See 6 replies to this post
Kosh666

join:2006-04-25
San Diego, CA

They can come out with all the shiny toys they want

but if there is no one to use it... I mean, how many places are there to live and work that can be placed within 3 feet of the CO.? yes, u know one day someone is going to promise 1 TB download and 33K ( the "K" was intentional) upload... yes, there's an advancement if one has ever seen it.. would make uploading a real bear.. on another note, years ago, AT&T (not at&t) had these commercials for new products that they were coming up and out with, well someone rather quickly became REALLY quiet with it all.. One day they were installing fiber optic cables all around town, and then I looked out another day, and it was all gone.. kinda a waste of money wasn't it? and just think, had they, gone through with actually providing Internet access and other highspeed toys for it's use.. Cable companies would have been hard press to keep up with their services, but financially speaking, I think they noticed they would probably make as much as they once thought.. or that they would never leave the negative numbers, hence no profit and no fun, everyone loses,.... (those fiber optic lines didn't belong to any cable company..)( I realize the original news article is probably mainly for businesses, but why can't it be EVERYONE..) right now, as advanced technologically we have arrived at to..whatever, we are still rather primitive.. wouldn't it be nice if everyone could afford an Optical line to their home and/or business that actually have u that 100Mbps..? had that been possible then, by now, we might actually be speaking of TB lines.. but it too is still a pipe dream.. DSL is great, other broadband connections are great, but what is the real reason everyone can't be wired with at least a T-3 line? and at $59.95 a month. (if u think that is outrageous, it shouldn't be seen as that.. only thing outrageous is I can't seem to speel my words at 4am in the morning..)
And that my friends is my worthless two pence for ya..
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Here

Re: They can come out with all the shiny toys they want

'but what is the real reason everyone can't be wired with at least a T-3 line?'

Because the cost of equipment is several thousand dollars not adding any labor and maintenance costs.
Kosh666

join:2006-04-25
San Diego, CA

Re: They can come out with all the shiny toys they want

yes, but why does it have to cost that much? there have been a lot of technologies that the cost of has been inflated which in turn allowed other technologies, for better or worse, to created a placed in use..and because someone made the just as cool if not better stuff too expensive they were let in the dust or in limbo.. Ever notice technology created before it's time, will eventually catch on some place in the future..and when they finally do they take off..
So had we had such abilities 15-20 years ago, we would be treating broadband speed like, " why do I have to wait for this microwave to heat water in 90 seconds", only forgetting that we once had to wait 5+ minutes for the stove to heat it.. ( we could make it worse and say we have to chop the wood first, heat the stove then boil the water..) We ought NOW to be complaining that our 145Mbps download speed are not fast enough... but instead we STILL have uses on dial up [to access the internet].. Interconnected, first it was dedicated 56K, 64K, 128K... and then 1.5Mbps.. 45Mbps AND THOSE were backbone speeds.. now we have surpassed OC-192.. I guess in time our dreams will come true.. but it is too bad we are all in the belief that we are not there yet for reasons of money.. Money makes the world fight, go around, greedy people, large debts... over paid CEO's.. Out-Sourcing america and it's workforce.. can we not reset our mindset and do what we once did to reach the moon, the stars or just putting a satellite in space, could we ever have that kind of pride in our work back, an actual race to run, to make stuff better than we have.. WE SHOULD be there already... but there is always some excuse at why we are not.. Are we not due for another explosion of technology greatness.. And when u compare a dream of OC-3072 or even better.. makes that t-3 line seem like 110baud teletype doesn't it? thanks for listening. (or not)
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Here

Re: They can come out with all the shiny toys they want

Well an OC-48 is way cheaper then it used to be but you're still looking at a very expensive piece of equipment. Way too expensive to just drop in for every customer. Same thing with any SONET system.
GhostDoggy

join:2005-05-11
Duluth, GA

AT&T: The New Titanic just waiting to sink.

Does AT&T really think that they can plan the next few years on such low bandwidth capacity? Making comments like that only serves to re-enforce cable competition to stay put and not compete.

Was this in the context of data-only transport, or for everything (their triple-play)?
carlini7
Premium
join:2003-12-19
Dundee, IL


1 edit

Re: AT&T: The New Titanic just waiting to sink.

I totally agree with you.

How come everyone else cannot fathom a quantum leap in bandwidth? 3 - 6 Mbps on Project Lightspeed is not setting the bar high enough. 100 Mbps and an "ELITE" speed of 1Gbps is what they should be touting. For all of the headaches they are going through with some municipalities -- there should be some GIANT leaps in bandwidth capacity. FTTH/ FTTP should be what they are installing - today, not another flavor of DSL.

As for use of bandwidth that some have questioned, come on. There are many applications that have yet to be invented but they won't be if the bandwidth isn't there.

Can tell there are not many "gamers" on this site. You ALWAYS can use more bandwidth.
Desp303

join:2005-04-13
Madison, WI

Re: AT&T: The New Titanic just waiting to sink.

I think we probably will see VDSL installed as an interim solution. It can deliver upto 100mbit over standard twisted copper pair. FTTP will get dropped to higher population densities first and also to richer subdivisions. Japan and S Korea have much higher population densities than the US so you can achieve faster return on investment. Still, typcial corporate America likes to milk existing tech until it turns to dust. They also tend to favor low to middle cost solutions vs higher cost yet far superior tech. It's all about making the books show consistent gains to get your bonus every year.
Forums » 100Mbps Within 5 Years?page: 1 · 2


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