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Mark Cuban: 'Broadband is Old News'
Says broadband video is going nowhere

While privately well aware of the threat posed by thousands of companies suddenly entering the video space, cable executives and those with a vested interest in traditional video distribution are publicly putting on a brave face. "The Internet really isn’t built to distribute mass-market video," recently opined Cablevision's COO. "If you really want to do video you have to be partnered with the cable industry," he insisted. "It’s all about QOS," recently proclaimed Cox Communications president Pat Esser.

Hoping to strike lucrative deals with the MSOs, HDNet chief and Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has been agreeing with this premise at every turn, apparently promising the cable giants his company won't use the "open internet" to distribute his company's high-def content. He's also been championing the incumbent position in the net-neutrality debate.

Cuban was sharply criticized for recent commentary on his blog last January that laughed at the concept of an open Internet. In it, he compared the open Internet to a traffic clogged Los Angeles freeway, while suggesting the incumbent two-tier approach would create a speedy "HOV lane." (Note this is the exact same misleading analogy used in this industry PR cartoon)

"Maybe, there are multiple-tiers of Mark Cuban, and maybe this blog posting came from one of the lower tiers," joked VoIP guru Jeff Pulver in response.

At an HDNet presentation yesterday to announce the signing of former CBS News anchor Dan Rather, Cuban continued chanting the incumbent mantra, downplaying the importance of broadband video, and scoffing at the idea of non-cable original programming. "Broadband is old news," Cuban told the gathered reporters.

"It'll be a little bit faster, a little bit prettier and there will be a few more features. But there's never going to be a hugely successful broadband program," predicts Cuban. We're going to guess that the dozens (if not hundreds) of companies cooking up new non-incumbent broadband video offerings would disagree.

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tschmidt
MVM
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Milford, NH
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tschmidt

MVM

Disruptive Technology

What he said is both true and at the same time totally false.

There are currently many limitations with delivering IPTV. Low bandwidth Internet radio is doing well and will get better as first-mile speed improves and it becomes possible to multicast and/or cache streams locally.

The "IPTV will never happen" mantra is reminiscence of all disruptive technology. PCs did not dominate the market because they were better computers then mainframes and minis, they did it because they created a new market that had not been served before. Once PCs were accepted technology improved and ultimately they began to displace legacy systems.

The same thing will likely happen with IPTV. A few innovative "TV stations" will pioneer the service. Quality will be lower then over the air or Cable but customers will be willing to make the trade-off because there is no other way to obtain the service. Over time quality will improve an one day legacy players will wake up and find their customers have migrated to the new technology.

Ramp up tends to take years and moves very slowly. Once critical mass is reached the change happens with astounding speed. I've worked at companies that missed important technology changes and the result has not been pretty. At the same time new technology is risky. One always needs to balance moving too soon vs too late.

Andrew Odlyzko wrote an interesting paper several years ago about: Internet TV: Implication for the long distance network.

All in all the next decade will be interesting forcing many business models to change.

/Tom