A new study by ABI research studies the impact of DOCSIS 3.0, the next big Cablelabs coax standard which will be used by cable operators to fend off telco fiber to the home and VDSL. According to the report, DOCSIS 3.0 will reach 60% penetration by 2010. The outfit claims network gear should start shipping by the end of next year. While there's going to be other methods of increasing bandwidth efficiency (see switched digital video), DOCSIS 3nj is the cable industry's great competitive weapon.

A few weeks ago, the cable industry scrapped plans to deploy a stopgap measure to increase cable broadband speeds while the industry waits for the DOCSIS 3.0 specification. That now dead standard, known as DOCSIS 2.0b, would have bonded together two or three 6MHz channels to potentially offer customers 40 to 70Mbps downstream, and 30Mbps upstream. However the standard was largely a product of hardware vendors eager to sell more gear, while the cable providers themselves wanted to keep their eye on the metaphorical DOCSIS 3.0 ball.

DOCSIS 3.0 will offer downstream data rates of 160 Mbps or higher and upstream data rates of 120 Mbps or higher (per channel), incorporate Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6), and offers a plethora of other performance and functionality upgrades. For reference, DOCSIS 2.0, currently in use, delivers up to 40 Mbps down/30 Mbps up per channel. Some networks, usually in less competitive markets, are still under the shadow of DOCSIS 1.1, and are waiting for 3.0 before upgrading.

Earlier this month, Cablelabs released the specifications for DOCSIS 3.0 to the public, after meeting with vendors (who signed non-disclosure agreements) in July. The standard won't actually see real world deployment until late 2007 or early 2008, according to most projections.