80% DOCSIS 3.0 Coverage By 2013?
Low per home costs mean technology will come on quickly...
Industry analyst Dave Burstein has been crunching the numbers
from most major cable operators, and believes that 10% of all cable customers have access to DOCSIS 3.0 technology (and faster speeds) today. According to Burstein, those numbers will jump to 50% in 2010, fueled largely by Comcast's promise that they'll have their entire footprint DOCSIS 3.0 ready by the end of 2010. Given the estimated $50-$100 per home investment cost, Burstein thinks we'll see 70-80% nationwide DOCSIS 3.0 coverage by 2012 or 2013.
Of course the big question will be just how big the coverage gap will be; carriers in uncompetitive areas doing battle with slow DSL may not see the competitive necessity to move past DOCSIS 2.0. With caps
, de-prioritization systems
and (if many ISPs get their way) metered billing
now becoming the norm, by 2013 the discussion may be less about how fast your connection is -- and more about just how fully you're able to use it. Customers may ultimately prefer slower connections if they aren't capped, throttled, and filtered.