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story category The Cable Bandwidth Apocalypse Is Coming
Or not...
(old news - 06:03PM Tuesday Jan 16 2007)
tags: bandwidth · cable
We've seen conflicting reports that proclaim varying degrees of cable plant capacity crunch, in varying degrees of apocalyptic severity. Last August, Cable Labs stirred up a hornet's nest when they concluded another round of multi-billion-dollar upgrades could be necessary and that cable operators might just be better off running fiber to the home. That was followed by an analyst report that claimed no, cable providers were actually in fine shape if they started employing bandwidth-saving tricks like switched digital video (SDV).

Now ABI Research is saying yes, there is a cable bandwidth crunch, and cable providers will spend $80 billion worldwide through 2012 to upgrade their networks. ABI says SDV won't do squat (despite Time Warner Cable claiming bandwidth savings "exceeded 50%" in trials). Of course, it looks like there's nothing in this report that cable network operators don't already know....video will drive demand, demand will need to be filled and networks will ultimately need to be upgraded to DOCSIS 3.0, starting with more profitable areas first.

Perhaps the money spent on analyst reports should go toward infrastructure upgrades?

Related:
  1. Metrocast Offers Fiber To The Home
  2. Comcast Still Fighting FCC Throttling Sanction
  3. Comcast Bandwidth Meter Still A No Show
  4. RCN Preps DOCSIS 3.0 Launches
  5. Comcast Launches Wireless Broadband In Philly
  6. Charter Offers 60 Mbps In California
  7. Comcast Slammed For Non-Existent Throttling Changes
  8. Mediacom Hints At 50, 100 Mbps Speeds
Forums » The Cable Bandwidth Apocalypse Is Coming
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exocet_cm
In memory of dadkins
Premium
join:2003-03-23
New Orleans, LA
clubs:
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·AT&T Southeast
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Ouch!

quote:
Perhaps the money spent on analyst reports should go toward infrastructure upgrades?
But so true!
--
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Ma Blog »www.johndball.com
nasadude

join:2001-10-05
Rockville, MD

google will pay for it!

aren't they just going to charge google, yahoo, etc. to pay for these upgrades?

that seems to be the business model touted by the telcos - heaven forbid they actually lay out any of their own money and take a risk.
RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11

Re: google will pay for it!

You know you're posting in a cable discussion, right?
nasadude

join:2001-10-05
Rockville, MD
·Comcast

Re: google will pay for it!

said by RadioDoc See Profile :

You know you're posting in a cable discussion, right?
as a matter of fact, I do. you know I'm being sarcastic, right?

besides, just because the cablecos haven't been stupid enough to publicly announce their desire for a two-tier internet doesn't mean they don't share that viewpoint (you know, the one where Whitacre says google, etc. should be charged more so the network can be upgraded).
rradina

join:2000-08-08
Chesterfield, MO
·Charter Pipeline

Re: google will pay for it!

My local cable company, Charter, has been running ads for months that proclaim net neutrality is bad. I think the ad was sponsored by the MCO (Missouri Cable Operators?). Although not specifically mentioned, that's a public declaration that they indirectly support the same thing the telcos want.

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
Premium
join:2003-02-06
Netcong, NJ
clubs:

Re: google will pay for it!

I hope you people don't think so called *Net Neutrality* will help nobodies like you. Do you like caps? Then you will love *Net Neutrality*.

Steve
I'm a PC, so shut up
Consultant
join:2001-03-10
Yorba Linda, CA

said by RadioDoc See Profile :

You know you're posting in a cable discussion, right?
He's making a net neutrality argument here...
--
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RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11

Re: google will pay for it!

Badly.

Maxo
Your tax dollars at work.
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Tallahassee, FL
clubs:
·Embarq

said by RadioDoc See Profile :

You know you're posting in a cable discussion, right?
Now Doc, we can't have a front page news story without a net neutrality flame war. It's just the way things are.

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
Premium
join:2003-02-06
Netcong, NJ
clubs:
·Verizon Online DSL

said by nasadude See Profile :

aren't they just going to charge google, yahoo, etc. to pay for these upgrades?

that seems to be the business model touted by the telcos - heaven forbid they actually lay out any of their own money and take a risk.
Yes google, yahoo and M$ should take risk and run their own cable.

dadkins
Can you do Blu?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA
·Comcast

Perhaps in some areas...

... but in others there seems to be an abundance of available bandwidth.

Read up on PowerBoost, then do a search here(in Comcast HSI) for PermaBoost.

Instead of getting the first few MB at wild speeds and then tapering back to rated service line speed, some of us are seeing wild downloads for entire multi-hundred(thousand?) MB downloads.

The main problem seems to be finding sources to utilize these speeds.

Of course, YMMV.
--
Think outside the Fox... Opera

pokesph
It Is Almost Fast
Premium
join:2001-06-25
Sacramento, CA
clubs:
·Comcast


1 edit

Re: Perhaps in some areas...

said by dadkins See Profile :

... but in others there seems to be an abundance of available bandwidth.

Read up on PowerBoost, then do a search here(in Comcast HSI) for PermaBoost.

Instead of getting the first few MB at wild speeds and then tapering back to rated service line speed, some of us are seeing wild downloads for entire multi-hundred(thousand?) MB downloads.

The main problem seems to be finding sources to utilize these speeds.

Of course, YMMV.
My Milage DOES Indeed Vary.. no *Boost here at all. Can't wait for DOCSIS 3 to arrive.
--
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dadkins
Can you do Blu?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA
·Comcast

Re: Perhaps in some areas...

That sucks!
It's not all roses though... I only know of a couple places that can push the killer speeds.
--
Think outside the Fox... Opera

cothrom

join:2005-12-01
Greer, SC
·Charter Pipeline

Re: Perhaps in some areas...

said by dadkins See Profile :

That sucks!
It's not all roses though... I only know of a couple places that can push the killer speeds.
Too true!
I was one of the first to get the 10M/1M speed increase with Charter cable at the beginning of Sept. 2006. it was absolutely killer too, everything they promised. By November I started to first see latency issues, speeds were still good for the most part but it would take a minute to access most web pages. By December we started to see speed degration to the point where I switched back to their 3M/256K service. High speed cable works well till it starts getting loaded, but with cable that is the nature of the beast.
--
Some people should'nt

GOLFnSUN
Enjoy the sun
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Avalon, NJ
·Sprint Mobile Broa..
·Comcast

The sweet spot in infrastructure upgrades for cable may be in FTTC. They already are using fiber extensively to sub developments and other housing groupings. They could use their existing rights of way to upgrade to the curb without huge investments. And then coax from the curb or pole to inside the house since that connection is already there. That combination along with Docsis-3 should keep them in the game for many years yet.
--
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sivran
Long Live The Suite
Premium
join:2003-09-15
Arlington, TX
clubs:
·RoadRunner Cable

Bingo. They're both right! It just depends on where you look.

As for my area, we've been traded to TW/RR and I'm actually sad to see Comcast go. However, with all the cable ISPs that've come through here, I've always gotten my full provisioned speed. Never called a single one of em on slow throughput. No bandwidth crunch here! (yet. Should be upgraded to 7 or even 10 Mbps soon. We'll see how that goes.)
--
Think outside the fox...Seamonkey

deadi
Premium
join:2001-08-26
Perry, OH

Yep,

I'd have to say there is a crunch based on what my friends with cable are stating. There are times when playing a game becomes impossible due to high and wildy fluctuating ping, most likely caused by over saturated cable. I dont have that problem with DSL.
--
We learn through the exchange of information, tell me more......

guhuna
R.I.P Mike
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join:2001-03-31
Brentwood, CA
·Covad Communications
·SONIC.NET
·PAXIO

Re: Yep,

said by deadi See Profile :

I'd have to say there is a crunch based on what my friends with cable are stating. There are times when playing a game becomes impossible due to high and wildy fluctuating ping, most likely caused by over saturated cable. I dont have that problem with DSL.
ahh, brings back memories of the @home days.
Try to play some Turok 2 and cant because of the 500ms pings.

ninjatutle
Premium

join:2006-01-02
San Ramon, CA
·Sprint Mobile Broa..

Its already here

Bears have let loose on the the cable infrastructure.

MysticGogeta
The Robot Devil
Premium
join:2005-03-14
League City, TX
clubs:

Re: Its already here

Someones hungry for more bandwidth
op

join:2005-07-16
Smyrna, DE
Must of been hired by the telcos' .

ColorBASIC
8-bit Fun
Premium
join:2006-12-29
Corona, CA
Next DSLR article...FiOS workers dressed as bears purposely destroy cable infrastructure.

ninjatutle
Premium

join:2006-01-02
San Ramon, CA
·Sprint Mobile Broa..

Next headline will be, Comcast is a bear killer...
RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11

Re: The rest of it...

Unless Comcast is in the electric power business now, I doubt it. Those pictures have nothing to do with them.

cdru
Go Colts
Premium,MVM
join:2003-05-14
Fort Wayne, IN

Re: The rest of it...

said by RadioDoc See Profile :

Unless Comcast is in the electric power business now, I doubt it. Those pictures have nothing to do with them.
Hey, logic, common sense, and the truth have absolutely no business here.
--
Go Colts

digiblur
Got Sipura?
Premium
join:2002-06-03
Louisiana
Thought the captions with those pictures were saying it was a Sprint cell tower this was at.

hayabusa3303
Over 200 mph
Premium
join:2005-06-29
clubs:

The Next telecommunications boom?

Sounds like its going to happen again. Not only with teleco but with cable.

I should invest more in fiber
op

join:2005-07-16
Smyrna, DE

Wait

If cable co's do fiber strait to the home then what happens if there is fiber already in the home a la Fios? I don't want 2 pieces of fiber from 2 different companies when 1 piece of fiber is doing enough.

ss4vegito7

join:2004-07-24
Cranbury, NJ

Re: Wait

said by op See Profile :

If cable co's do fiber strait to the home then what happens if there is fiber already in the home a la Fios? I don't want 2 pieces of fiber from 2 different companies when 1 piece of fiber is doing enough.
why not? its the same width as coaxial, you wouldn't be able to tell the difference. Plus cable companies aren't going to run fiber to your home anytime soon anyway.
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MadMANN
Premium
join:2005-08-19
·Comcast

The fiber that would be at your home already would be owned by Verizon and connected to THEIR network. So the cable company would HAVE to run a second piece of fiber to THEIR system. And most likely, they would do what Verizon does already and remove the coax that already exists to your home from your previous service.

It's no different than areas who have two different cable systems with two separate coax drops to a house, if a sub has used both at one time or another.

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
Premium
join:2003-02-06
Netcong, NJ
clubs:
·Verizon Online DSL

said by op See Profile :

If cable co's do fiber strait to the home then what happens if there is fiber already in the home a la Fios? I don't want 2 pieces of fiber from 2 different companies when 1 piece of fiber is doing enough.
How could this be accomplished? I know, one company could have a regulated monopoly on a national public switched network. Nah, would never work, the people would bitch. Especially those that want to leach and sucker the people in with promises of cheep long distance..

Anonymous_
Anonymous
Premium
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127.0.0.1
clubs:
·RoadRunner Cable
·Time Warner Cable
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Time Warner Cable

Time Warner Cable is only saveing 50 % cause they downgraded all users when they change over from adelphia
or comcrap
--
Your Thread Is worth less With out Pictures

tschmidt
Premium,MVM
join:2000-11-12
Milford, NH
·Hollis Hosting
·Verizon Online DSL
·Fairpoint Communic..

HDTV and Internet Access

While their are several techniques to get more out of the HFC network a 850Mhz Cable system only has about 6Gbps of capacity assuming everything becomes digital. Much of the capacity is consumed by analog TV channels that will not be going away any time soon.

6Gbps sounds like a lot but that is gross capability to the Node. Nodes typically support over 100 customers. Switching helps reduce the amount of bandwidth needed to deliver broadcast TV if not all channels are actively being viewed.

As HDTV becomes more popular, as video on demand becomes more popular, and as demand for faster Internet access occurs it is crunch time for the HFC network.

/Tom
Enlightener

join:2006-01-28
Cedar Park, TX

Re: HDTV and Internet Access

6Gbps is enough to give 120 customers 50Mbps each. That's twice what AT&T is offering. That could provide several HD streams and internet to boot. Kill analog, replace the DVR with VOD and they should be set for years. Right?
cwh

join:2006-05-14
San Antonio, TX

Re: HDTV and Internet Access

said by Enlightener See Profile :

6Gbps is enough to give 120 customers 50Mbps each. That's twice what AT&T is offering. That could provide several HD streams and internet to boot. Kill analog, replace the DVR with VOD and they should be set for years. Right?
The only problem is, cable nodes are not that small.

kpfx

join:2005-10-28
Kerrville, TX
·RoadRunner Cable

Re: HDTV and Internet Access

Typically slightly larger, but close if you're counting HSD passings (total passings are much higher but you never have a 100% connect rate).

Throw in DOCSIS 3.0 and things get interesting. Instead of 6Gbps you now have a theoretical 22Gbps to play with. That can easily handle over 100Mbps per customer.

Of course we're all talking theoretical stuff here. Only time will tell how it gets played out.

tschmidt
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join:2000-11-12
Milford, NH
·Hollis Hosting
·Verizon Online DSL
·Fairpoint Communic..

Re: HDTV and Internet Access

said by kpfx See Profile :

Of course we're all talking theoretical stuff here. Only time will tell how it gets played out.
True. The other thing to keep in mind is this is download speed (toward customer). Upload is severely constrained. This is not a problem for UDP or multicast but will play havoc with TCP.

/Tom
bhorow

join:2004-05-17
Forest Hills, NY

I don't know about apocalypse but..

Generally speaking competition is driving the need for faster speeds, I don't know about some of the conclusions people are making. I would say that DSL is now the old dial up. At $19.00 a pop. And the defacto standard is do you have at least 5 Meg per second.

The Low end is low 768K, the days of dialup is now gone. In fact unless you talk about $9.00 dialup...almost everyone can now talk about $19.00 DSL.

The speed wars are going to conclude though since. Verizon and Cable companies realize that. They have to cover there expenses. If you noticed Verizon's prices are similar to that of cable. The fact is you have to make an operating profit.

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
Premium
join:2003-02-06
Netcong, NJ
clubs:
·Verizon Online DSL

Re: I don't know about apocalypse but..

said by bhorow See Profile :



The Low end is low 768K, the days of dialup is now gone.
Oh really. Posters to this site are not normal users and should get out more.

voipguy

join:2006-05-31
Forest Hills, NY

SDV Won't Help - Hogwash

Switched video will OF COURSE help.

Once the number of switched channels approaches a large portion of the number of TV sets hooked up in a given node, the channel capacity goes to infinity! This will take care of broadcast, VOD, network DVR, and anything else video (because each set can only watch one or perhaps two streams at a time, and sets watching the same program watch the same stream).

For data, sure there are limits. But if the bulk of the data path is used for video anyway, SDV could accomodate that too. By bonding DOCSIS channels, speeds well over 100 Mb/s are easily achieved.

The biggest limit cable faces is the size of the upstream path. This could be addressed by splitting nodes small enough such that all the coax behind them is passive. Then, the upstream/downstream split could be changed without reconfiguring field amplifiers. This will be more easily done once the analog TV channels go away, and downstream channels 2-6 can be vacated.

Quaoar

join:2004-08-11
Fort Collins, CO

The Apocalypse

So today, NetFlix has started their video download service. This is directly bandwidth-consuming, and I expect that bandwidth in all venues will start to be consumed in a huge way, likely (on cable connections) resulting in the apocalypse of bandwidth availability far sooner than we all realize that it could happen.

Net Neutrality will be the watchword for the next year, when ISP's like mine, Comcast, start invoking the invisible quotas for their customers on an exponentially increasing basis.

The delivery of massive content, i.e., a simple DVD amount of data to subscribers, will very quickly destroy the fast connections we have all had for these few years into another version of broadband 'dial-up' equivalent.

None of the broadband ISPs had one inkling that the net would advance in download demand that things like NetFlix would have a debilitating effect on their networks.

I await the apocalypse with trepidation. The electronic world is moving faster than the capital investment world can respond. I predice meltdown!

Q
Davemaster
Premium
join:2006-03-02
Marietta, GA

Re: The Apocalypse

The bear was electrocuted?
travelguy

join:1999-09-03
Santa Fe, NM

Re: The Apocalypse

said by Davemaster See Profile :

The bear was electrocuted?
Nah... He was justing watching too much HGTV.
RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11
Yeah, but not by a cable TV line.

»www.hunting.net/news/news.aspx?news_id=603

Vamp
5c077
Premium
join:2003-01-28
MD

they SHOULD run fiber.

They already have fiber, they should run it the extra mile.

RolteC
0h

join:2001-05-20
Fresh Meadows, NY

Re: they SHOULD run fiber.

True they should run it further.

Would be nice to have multiple fiber optic ISP's to choose from.

That sounds nice.

But unlikely to ever happen.
DufiefData

join:2006-06-13
Gaithersburg, MD

How could SDV not help?

I don't get it--how could SDV not make a difference??? You're talking about overturning the entire current paradigm of cable TV (i.e. everything gets pushed to the STB 24/7), and changing to essentially a Multicasting model. In that case the only bandwidth "constraints" are between headend and SDV edge node. Right?

Virtually all current bandwidth constraints should be removed--future limits should depend only on the processing power at each SDV node. It seems like an obvious bandwidth solution.

What's the issue then? The costs of each node?

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
Premium
join:2003-02-06
Netcong, NJ
clubs:
·Verizon Online DSL

Re: How could SDV not help?

said by DufiefData See Profile :

I don't get it--how could SDV not make a difference??? You're talking about overturning the entire current paradigm of cable TV (i.e. everything gets pushed to the STB 24/7), and changing to essentially a Multicasting model. In that case the only bandwidth "constraints" are between headend and SDV edge node. Right?

Virtually all current bandwidth constraints should be removed--future limits should depend only on the processing power at each SDV node. It seems like an obvious bandwidth solution.

What's the issue then? The costs of each node?
Wow, that is beautiful, why aren't you king of all cable.
tmc8080

join:2004-04-24
Floral Park, NY

symantics

Docsis 3.0 is a cable equalizer.. what is LOST upon the analysis is the necessity to run fiber (FTTN) anyway deep into the neighborhood nodes to SUPPORT the increased bandwidth caps capable for docsis 3.0, Actually-- they could be doing some of this DEEP fiber node construction NOW under docsis 2.0 nodes and just switch the nodes/headend/cablemodems when the time comes.. but cable companies are: LAZY, GREEDY, and STUPID.. because they think a few pennies saved today is better now than dollars spent later.. (2 years down the road). Which by all accounts will have some means of competition breathing down their necks in the form of xdsl or fttx from telcos, or in some circumstances MUNI fiber/broadband shutting out the competition from BOTH cableco and telco alike.

They need to plan where to make the upgrades and implement ASAP,network upgrades.. telcos were never complacent in upgrading AT LEAST the head-end equipment and the backbone infrastructure.. they always migrated to new cheaper, more cost efficient technologies (in most cases) because they had the money (but, until recently the residential customer got the crumbs of bad dsl deployment).. with the new ROUND of cable (tv) rate increases.. cablecos SHOULD be putting some of this new cash to work on network upgrades NOW, not later.. they just need to choose some OUTSIDE plant upgrades in addition to the INSIDE plant upgrades--(it won't get much cheaper to do this later) DOCSIS 3.0 migration costs are relatively fixed industry wide-- it's doubtful any ONE cable company would get an unfair advantage on the equipment/labor/deployment costs anywhere. Telcos are starting to get their ducks in a row and significant increases in bandwidth are coming-- and winning over customers in the process. In addition they need to get some certified docsis 3.0 cable modem design specs to the manufacturing process by q3 2007 or they will be swamped with customer churn as telco broadband overbuilds the faulty DSL that exists today with something as good as (AT&T) or better than (Verizon FTTP) docsis 2.0.

i1me2ao
Premium
join:2001-03-03
TEXAS
·Comcast

how can this be?

all the ads from twc tout the amount available to do everything you want. it is if the cable companies are politician who speak out both sides of their mouth..
--
»www.thereligionofpeace.com/
Forums » The Cable Bandwidth Apocalypse Is Coming


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