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story category We're Running Out Of Bandwidth
And it's the network neutrality advocates fault?
(old news - 02:32PM Wednesday Jan 31 2007)
tags: business · bandwidth · networking
Tipped by jtel See Profile
"According to Deloitte & Touche predictions, Internet traffic will start to exceed capacity as early as this year and large network providers won't be expanding capacity," insists this editorial over at Forbes. The result? "The traffic on many Internet backbones could slow to a crawl this year." Who's to blame for this proclaimed bandwidth apocalypse? Network neutrality advocates, who are scaring off capacity investment, according to Phil Kerpen of Americans For Prosperity. Deloitte & Touche's actual capacity prediction can be found here, but they make no mention of network neutrality law fears as the primary reason for the crunch -- instead stating companies aren't increasing capacity "because consumers will be unwilling to pay increased costs."

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Forums » We're Running Out Of Bandwidth
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inurenegade

join:2006-06-11
Wilmington, DE

You smell that?

it smells like BS to me!

ronpin
Imagine Reality

join:2002-12-06
Nirvana
·AT&T Southwest


2 edits

Re: You smell that?

uh...DWDM allows one to simply pop-off another lambda for a another virtual fiber. One fiber can thus be duplicated 96 times (x OC48). Most Tier 1 carriers have many fibers as well. Tier 2 providers are not involved in the Net Neutrality debate -- but they may well develop capacity issues -- but that's another unrelated problem. We do see AT&T and Quest having "mysterious" latency issues at peering points for Tier-2 providers -- like Charter and RoadRunner etc. No reason to trust AT&T at all. They may have a vested interest in screwing-up latency for peers (it makes DSL look better -- and they could even start to charge Cable providers a "priority" routing fee -- anti-net-neutrality »Here we go again-ATT Routers causing HIGH MI Pings)
--
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rolande
Certifiable
Premium,Mod
join:2002-05-24
Powell, OH
clubs:

Host:
Linksys
AT&T Midwest

Re: You smell that?

It is simple economics and has nothing to do with fiber capacity. For X amount of bandwidth you still need X amount of silicon hardware to route and push the bits out interfaces. That hardware requires large amounts of capital investment.

The problem has more to do with the state of broadband price warfare. Carriers keep lowering their broadband prices while the cost/Mbps of data is not lowering at the same rate. The margins become so thin and non-existent that the providers cry poor. You'd think that the motto they are all living by is "He who dies with the most subscribers wins".
--
Ignorance is temporary...stupidity lasts forever!

KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK
·Cox HSI
·AT&T Southwest

Re: You smell that?

Should of seen it coming. The "new" (Same-old) at&t has a LONG history of demanding special privileges and exemptions before building out network capacity. For example in Oklahoma at&t (then SBC) refused to build out DSL networks and put DSLAMS in until the state removed them from jurisdiction of Oklahoma's Corporation Commission--- effectively granting them a state sanctioned telephone monopoly

Now, this is just more of the same extended nationwide. "We cannot add capacity until we're granted legal exemptions from Federal requirements like Net Neutrality or Fair access.... Until we have it our way we're going to sit on our hands and blame the chaos on our opposition."

If at&t pulls this crap, maybe some politicians will grow some balls and start proceedings to break up at&t again
--
"Regulatory capitalism is when companies invest in lawyers, lobbyists, and politicians, instead of plant, people, and customer service." - former FCC Chairman William Kennard (A real FCC Chairman, unlike the current Corporate Spokesperson in the job!)
RayW
Premium
join:2001-09-01
Layton, UT
clubs:
·XMission

Re: You smell that?

said by KrK See Profile :

If at&t pulls this crap, maybe some politicians will grow some balls and start proceedings to break up at&t again
Not this congress, they for some reason are for big business (must have something to do with fewer points of contact to have to hit up for bribes).
--
I am not lost, I find myself every time.
Kearnstd
Elf Wizard
Premium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ

said by rolande See Profile :

It is simple economics and has nothing to do with fiber capacity. For X amount of bandwidth you still need X amount of silicon hardware to route and push the bits out interfaces. That hardware requires large amounts of capital investment.

The problem has more to do with the state of broadband price warfare. Carriers keep lowering their broadband prices while the cost/Mbps of data is not lowering at the same rate. The margins become so thin and non-existent that the providers cry poor. You'd think that the motto they are all living by is "He who dies with the most subscribers wins".
and this is partly caused by lack of competition in the carrier level hardware market. Cisco can charge what they want because how many other contenders are there? something tells me that big fat fiber router isnt really worth the 500 grand they charge for it.
--
[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports

rolande
Certifiable
Premium,Mod
join:2002-05-24
Powell, OH
clubs:

Host:
Linksys
AT&T Midwest

Re: You smell that?

Juniper wins many of the carrier deals these days because they can be competitive on price. But you also have Marconi/FORE Systems, Force 10 networks, Nortel, Alcatel, Lucent, Riverstone, Tellabs, Laurel Networks, and Redback. There are a lot of price competitive carrier class routing solutions out there today. Cisco has by no means cornered this market at all.

In any case, though, the cost of hardware must be capitalized by the telcos and it is still a big hit on their bottom line depending on how many years they depreciate the gear. If they don't charge the subscriber base enough, there is not enough left over in the end for the future investments required to scale the network to meet the growing demands. Business models that do not price higher than the base "supplier" costs in a commodity market may win all the customers up front but will have nothing to show for it in the end.

Providers are either going to have to start taking a more conservative price approach for the tiered "unlimited" bandwidth model or they will have to stop the all you can eat price plans altogether. Something will have to give. In general, consumers are extremely fickle and will go for the best price in a commodity market like broadband. As each provider's average network performance gets worse over time, customers will jump to the best price/performance combo. Unfortunately, the consumer will still pay for this situation in one way or another. The prices will eventually move back upwards when consumers realize "they get what they pay for".
--
Ignorance is temporary...stupidity lasts forever!

comcast_customer

@raf.com

Total B.S. _Investing_ in infrastructure with higher bandwidth has about as much to do with priority queueing (QoS) or network neutrality as Mike Tyson does with common sense.....

Quality of service has nothing, zilch, zero, nada to do with expanding and/or upgrading network infrastructure. Network neutrality is a First Amendment right fight, albeit a slightly misguided fight (because I think if someone wanted to abridge those freedoms, could've done so by now), but unrelated as far as investing in capacity goes.

The cable+phone co's used taxpayers money to build out these networks - they are now and have been charging for usage, constantly raising their fees - you'd think the math would add up at this point in time for them to invest any profit they have into upgrading infrastructure (rather than paying out executive bonuses).

Instead, they choose to blame some misguided network neutrality folks and their inability to charge for QoS on their current infrastructure. Well, I _am_ for network neutrality as well as Quality of Service - the two issues can most definitely coexist and will coexist together, in case anyone wondered.

And it is a hard fact that we are running out of bandwidth, slowly but surely.... I give it at max 2 years before we're bandwidth asthmatic.

LiamJunket
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Ocean City, NJ
·Comcast

said by inurenegade See Profile :

it smells like BS to me!
I don't think the Deloitte & Touche predictions are wrong. But Phil Kerpen of Americans For Prosperity is probably just using the data to advocate for his anti net neutrality position. But the main point is that people only get what they pay for and if more and more users start using more and more video, they will either pay more or get slower service. And we all know they won't pay more.
--
--
My BLOG
My Web Page
Nightwchtr

join:2001-09-10
Falls Church, VA
LMAO isnt that the truth, they still have dark fiber out there that goes on for miles.

ofacesig

join:2007-01-23
Carrollton, TX
·Verizon FIOS

beeee sssssss

This guy is the puppet of the Telcos and cable companies. The internet is what it is because it's a free uninhibited medium. We all bought "unlimited" internet access because that what was sold to us. If the Telcos and the cable firms have their way we will be paying more for our connections and they will charge google and yahoo and the like for the services they render to us for free. I used to work for BellSouth in management. I know exactly how they think.
NormanS
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-14
San Jose, CA
·Pacific Bell - SBC

Re: beeee sssssss

said by ofacesig See Profile :

The internet is what it is because it's a free uninhibited medium.
Free only with respect to inhibitions. The infrastructure has definite costs. Somebody has to pay for all those transit routers, and all that fiber.
We all bought "unlimited" internet access because that what was sold to us.
I don't recall any ISP advertising "unlimited bandwidth". A lot advertised "unlimited access"; but that was referring to the fact that dial-up providers limited access.
If the Telcos and the cable firms have their way we will be paying more for our connections...
Fortunately, Comcast is in my neighborhood. When AT&T starts charging $69 per month for 768k DSL I will switch to Comcast.
...and they will charge google and yahoo and the like for the services they render to us for free.
Somehow, I don't see AT&T charging Yahoo! for squat; more likely they will just tell Yahoo! to stop charging them. That is what is happening with this "at&t Yahoo! HSI" business.
I used to work for BellSouth in management. I know exactly how they think.
Yes. They are the ones who sold out to AT&T.

Hmmm. I should point out that AT&T management was of the same mindset as Bellsouth management, considering that they also sold out...to SBC.
--
Norman
~Oh Lord, why have you come
~To Konnyu, with the Lion and the Drum

odreian615

join:2006-01-18
Chicago, IL

Butt ummm Butt ummm Butt ummmm

ATT is Evil
amungus
Premium
join:2004-11-26
America
clubs:

hogwash

that's the biggest load of crap I've heard in awhile.

backbone upgrades should be a normal part of progress, just because people actually use what is available does not = crisis, it means that there are finally services which utilize it for what it's actually worth. welcome to 2007 people, this isn't your grandpa's internet with puny text files and a few jpegs floating around.
Freezone

join:2000-09-29
Southfield, MI

Re: hogwash

OUch man. How old are you? At 34 I am hardly a grandpa, but Yes i do remember 300 buad modems STOP MAKING ME FEEL OLD!!!!!

The text thing did not hurt so bad but the jpeg thing stuck home HARD.
amungus
Premium
join:2004-11-26
America
clubs:

Re: hogwash

heh, sorry Freezone ...it was a really dumb joke... meant mostly that older folks who get on the intarweb are likely not doing much other than reading and maybe viewing a few pictures etc... not that they wouldn't love some youtube or whatever, just that they're less likely to be on the bleeding edge of technology...

I'm about 7 years younger than yourself. Been on BBR here since about when you signed up, but only registered a few years back. Back then, DSL had just shown up in town (supposedly this little town was one of the 1st in the country to get residential ADSL...) and some friends had it. We about soiled ourselves when we saw that old thermometer looking speed test showing that we were getting 1.54Mbps as advertised, about a mile from the CO.

hobgoblin
Sortof Agoblin
Premium
join:2001-11-25
Orchard Park, NY
clubs:

Re: hogwash

"not that they wouldn't love some youtube or whatever, just that they're less likely to be on the bleeding edge of technology..."

So you consider Youtube the bleeding edge of Technology...Ok Then!

hob
--
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."
- Ralph Waldo Emerson

N3OGH
Bear patrol must be working like a charm
Premium
join:2003-11-11
Philly burbs
·Verizon Online DSL

said by Freezone See Profile :

OUch man. How old are you? At 34 I am hardly a grandpa, but Yes i do remember 300 buad modems STOP MAKING ME FEEL OLD!!!!!

The text thing did not hurt so bad but the jpeg thing stuck home HARD.
I'm 34, and yes we are OLD.

My first modem was 1200 baud, but I remember 300's.

Now, the US Robotics Courier HST was 'DA BOMB. See above pic...

BLAZIN' at 14.4K!
--
Never ask what sort of a computer a guy drives. If he's a Mac user, he'll tell you. If not, why embarrass him? -Tom Clancy
moonpuppy

join:2000-08-21
Glen Burnie, MD

Re: hogwash

I HAD a 300 baud modem and saw a 110 baud telephone coupler.

cableties
Premium
join:2005-01-27
Newtown, PA

Re: hogwash

Remember these?

PeterCollins

join:2005-05-23
Geneva, IL

Re: hogwash

I've got one for you...

I have a Radio Shack TRS-80 Modem II, new, in the box, that has a $199.95 sticker and brought me a stunning 300 baud.

I'm really old at 38...
moonpuppy

join:2000-08-21
Glen Burnie, MD
I remember when phones were hardwired into the wall and there were no plugs at all.

swagner
Premium
join:2007-01-22
Loganville, GA

Re: hogwash

Well, I'm the reeeeal old guy at 45. I used to be the electronics technician that repaired all those 110/300 baud couplers, micromodem II's, and smartmodems at Hayes. At the time, I was the only warranty repair guy in the place.

Now my game is erbium doped fiber amps and I think we can send as many bits down the fiber as the bit God can produce!

davoice

join:2000-08-12
Saxapahaw, NC

"Luckily" I couldn't afford to get into the game until 2400 baud Hayes modems came into the picture. I did get to play with my dad's boss' acoustic coupler once.

Yes, old in internet years means you have been around long enough to remember when internet destinations didn't have a www in front of them. And didn't use a "browser".

}Davoice

OldFogey

@tmodns.net
BAH! When I was a young whippersnapper I had to use a 110 baud acoustic coupler with my VT100 terminal, uphill, in the snow, both ways...
Gogo1

join:2004-05-27
Brooklyn, NY

Re: hogwash

Cold snow? You're lucky. When I was a lad I had to write the ones and zeros on a paper and run to the other terminal and back over burning hot lava...

beerbum
Premium
join:2000-05-06
Reading, PA
·Comcast

Re: hogwash

said by Gogo1 See Profile :

Cold snow? You're lucky. When I was a lad I had to write the ones and zeros on a paper and run to the other terminal and back over burning hot lava...
you had paper? wow


John Galt
What...me panic??
Premium
join:2004-09-30
Happy Camp

said by OldFogey :

BAH! When I was a young whippersnapper I had to use a 110 baud acoustic coupler with my VT100 terminal, uphill, in the snow, both ways...
"...and after I got home me Dad cut me in half with a bread knife."

"Aaaaugh....you think YOU'VE got it bad...!!"

nod to Monty Python
--
A is A

N3OGH
Bear patrol must be working like a charm
Premium
join:2003-11-11
Philly burbs
FEET? You had feet?

voiplover
Premium
join:2004-05-28
Portsmouth, NH
I still have a 1.4K and I recall others being in awl over it!

Crazyf00L
Glorified Version of a Pellet Gun

join:2002-11-04
Coudersport, PA
clubs:

Re: hogwash

said by voiplover See Profile :

being in awl over it!
Oh dear...I really hope you meant awe.
--
"The duty of youth is to challenge corruption."
~ Kurt Cobain
shashinka

join:2000-09-16
West Boylston, MA
I am 31 and I remember using them, argh.

kapil
The Kapil

join:2000-04-26
Chicago, IL

Yeah.

I have friends that work for Deloitte. I grew up with these guys. I know how full of shit they are. Deloitte is a consulting company...and here's what I think of consultants:

»despair.com/consulting.html

woody7
Premium
join:2000-10-13
Torrance, CA
·EarthLink
·DSL EXTREME

Re: Yeah.

Nice link/site, I have their calendar on the wall in my classroom, the students get it, the other teacher don't....
--
BlooMe

phxmark
What Country Are We Living In?

join:2000-12-27
Glendale, AZ

said by kapil See Profile :

I have friends that work for Deloitte. I grew up with these guys. I know how full of shit they are. Deloitte is a consulting company...and here's what I think of consultants:

»despair.com/consulting.html
I thought it was Toilet-Douche.
--
High speed is dangerous. Too many MP3s, not enough time.

Matt
Quitting Caffeine - Argh
Premium
join:2003-07-20
Jamestown, NC
·North State Commun..

said by kapil See Profile :

I have friends that work for Deloitte. I grew up with these guys. I know how full of shit they are. Deloitte is a consulting company...and here's what I think of consultants:

»despair.com/consulting.html
I have known people who worked for them and then went on to become the most worthless project managers I have ever met in my life.
--
Use the OS tool for the job.

RockCake
Premium
join:2005-07-12
Woodbridge, VA
Ha! I love Despair. I've got a couple of those in my office (Mediocrity and Procrastination)
PeterCollins

join:2005-05-23
Geneva, IL


1 edit

consultants
This is one of my favs...

Jodokast96
R.I.P Bassman442
Premium
join:2005-11-23
Erial, NJ

This year?

"The traffic on many Internet backbones could slow to a crawl this year."
Guess they haven't noticed what's going on in Brooklyn (and spreading) for the last 4 months.

kapil
The Kapil

join:2000-04-26
Chicago, IL

STFU

Deloitte has no clue how the ISP business works.

If End User is not getting bandwidth he expects from his pipe, he will complain to his ISP. If ISP is oversold he will get another pipe to upstream provider. If upstream provider is running short on capacity, he will add capacity to the backbone. If backbone is getting congested the backbone provider will add additional pipes to peering partners.

If the providers don't add capacity they will lose business to someone who will.

There is not going to be some Fios-like expansion campaign where the upstream providers and backbones go on a building spree (they did that in the 90's) ....the growth is going to be more organic.

The capacity is added constantly as needed and will continue to be added as needed. Backbone providers are sitting on more dark fiber than God and it can be lit when the need arises.

The more serious problem will occur when the machines that route the traffic become inefficient at handling such large amounts of traffic...but I have faith in cisco, redback, juniper, nortel...they will just dream up ever more powerful routers.

Reports pertaining to technical issues shouldn't be written by bean-counters that need help signing on to AOL or can't get on the Interweb without a call to their helpful IT person at work.

See 6 replies to this post

CostContainment

@rcn.com

Carriers are integrating for cost containment

Level 3 for instance took over Savvis and Broadwing and Looking Glass. It is not expanding but rather is integrating for cheaper costs at this point in time. Level 3 has to get back to expanding capacity HOWEVER Level 3 is the perfect example of a carrier which Deloitte & Touche is talking about because in 2007 if they think they can integrate and not expand they are DEAD WRONG.

Carriers have literally stopped fiber pipes dead in their tracks in terms of construction for many of them and instead are focusing on mergers and cost containment.

See 14 replies to this post
brianiscool

join:2000-08-16
Miami, FL

GAH!

When is Google launching their unlimited backbone with no fees : )
RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11

Re: GAH!

When you graduate with a bachelors degree.
jtel

join:2005-06-28
Bristol, RI
When we start drinking 'nasty canadian milk'.

dslextreme
Premium,VIP
join:2001-02-23
Canoga Park, CA

Network providers sell bandwidth

Why would they want to control supply and limit investment?

Simple, if you limit supply in a growing demand market, prices will skyrocket. Can you say Enron?

This is just a political ploy against net neutrality and market control at it's worst. All the telecom mergers streamlined by the FCC are are now working at full value.
dynodb
Premium,VIP
join:2004-04-21
Minneapolis, MN

Re: Network providers sell bandwidth

Um, there's a bit of a difference there duder- oil is a publicly traded commodity, bits and bytes are not. Speeds have gone up, prices have come down, new WiFi and fiber offerings rolled out.

This after the "streamlined" mergers that required numerous conditions be met and months of hearings and negotiations before winning approval.
cmaenginsb
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-19
Palmdale, CA

Re: Network providers sell bandwidth

dynodb, you're only looking at the end user level. At the backbone level speeds are not increasing to match the speed increases given to the end users and pricing has definately not come down at the levels or at all.

AT&T however does not control the backbone although they carry a good portion of backbone traffic. As mentioned Level-3 and other carriers like Sprint carry a fair amount of traffic as well. I can remember pre-merger days where SBC DSL on the west coast went out on Sprint's backbone networks. After the merger it's been consolidated.

All those public hearings etc don't mean much because people really don't look at the long term picture and how one merger begets the next until the backbone truely is controlled by a monopoly and we're screwed in the US.
--
CCNA, Comtrain Certified Tower Climber
RJ44

join:2001-10-19
Nashville, TN

1 edit

Turnabout

Sounds like the same type of overblown hysteria, except in reverse, that the net neutrality proponents have been spouting for the last year or so. And it's just about as valid.
dscline

join:2001-09-01
Atlanta, GA

Some secret new technology?

I haven't made it past the first sentence. I'm still trying to figure out how traffic can exceed capacity.

nekote

join:2000-12-16
Hopkinton, MA

WSJ also full of BS?

I'm a bit dissapointed with DSLReports / BBR.

I submitted a copy of a Wall Street Journal article entitled "The Coming Exaflood" posted on 1/20/07, written by Bret Swanson as a likely News piece of interest to this forum.

Dunno' if copyright issues were a gating factor.

The issue of bandwidth - and the attendant hand wringing about "net neutrality" - discussed the current success of YouTube and likely high demand for more video on demand via the Internet.

Thus causing an "Exa-Flood" of digital bandwidth demand.

At those levels of bandwidth usage, I guess it maybe time to grow up from the one price for everybody service plans to plans that factor in some pricing per GB?

Else, pay for it via the advertising / commercials / user's time to view ads model?

Double and triple the price of single pricing plans for everybody?

Who and how does additional bandwidth capacity get paid for?
--
Government is like fire - a dangerous servant and a fearful master - George Washington

Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all other forms of government. - Winston Churchill

BloodRoses
Gods lend wings to tainted hearts
Premium
join:2003-03-17
clubs:
·Cox HSI
·Verizon Online DSL

Re: WSJ also full of BS?

said by nekote See Profile :

Who and how does additional bandwidth capacity get paid for?
How about the millions in county, state, and government subsidies and tax breaks given to the telcos to build out promised fiber networks, that were never built? Surely they could use that money... right?
--
Cheers,
Stephanie - www.GlitterFaerie.com

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
Premium
join:2003-02-06
Netcong, NJ
clubs:
·Verizon Online DSL

Re: WSJ also full of BS?

said by BloodRoses See Profile :

How about the millions in county, state, and government subsidies and tax breaks given to the telcos to build out promised fiber networks, that were never built? Surely they could use that money... right?
It you did two minutes of fact checking and not spew Teletruth B.S. you would know the answer. There is no free lunch little children.

Trinijoy
Premium
join:2005-09-12
Brick, NJ

yeah okay...

I doubt they are running out of bandwidth, if Comcast can afford to give there customers 20MB download bandwidth.

danclan

join:2005-11-01
Midlothian, VA
·Verizon FIOS


1 edit

Re: yeah okay...

DWDM is currently in the wild for both public and private rings....its being deployed where ever possible and cost correct. The hardware is now to the point where it makes good sense to deploy it but I would be shocked if its on any major core rings for several reasons.

Its not just flip a switch and presto! more bandwidth there is some serious engineering and peering issues that have to be addressed.

It requires a high degree of coordination when deploying as well within the high volume peering sites.

And again it has to make economic sense and logistical sense to invest in it.

We have make use of dwdm rings provided by others and love the failover and recovery they provide. I would love to have a ring pass though my home....(HEY BACK OFF! I CAN DREAM! I GOTS DA FIBER!)

We called them dolittle and douche....i dont think i need to say any more....
alchav

join:2002-05-17
Palm Desert, CA
·Pacific Bell - SBC

Nothing is Free, someone has to Pay for the BackBone!

You guys here are great, but your view of the Internet is lopsided. For eMail, Surfing, Downloading, and Uploading for the Average User there is plenty of Bandwidth. There is much more on these Backbones now, Telephone, Video, and everything Digital. The Telco's paid for the Backbone, and they have to keep paying to increase and maintain them. Back when I worked for a Telco, they were in the process of un-tangling a rats nest. So all this costs time and money, along with a big increase in traffic.

So I'm not surprised that the Network has a big problem, and the ISP's will have to increase their access and that will fall back on us the Users.
dynodb
Premium,VIP
join:2004-04-21
Minneapolis, MN

Could they be more vague?

The linked Deloitte & Touche "prediction" has about as many specifics and supporting evidence as does your daily horoscope. Their entire evidence-free arguement can be summed up in one sentence: "Bandwidth demand will increase and we don't think providers will increase capacity because it's too expensive.".

No statistics, no cost analysis, no historical examples- nothing with which to back up their prediction. If that's how they operate, I wouldn't trust Deloitte & Touche to advise me on a $2 bet at the race track much less a multi-billion dollar company.

Maybe they have a more detailed analysis elsewhere, but the linked "prediction" looked like little more than an uninformed guess.

dadkins
Can you do Blu?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA
·Comcast

Re: Could they be more vague?

said by dynodb See Profile :

The linked Deloitte & Touche "prediction" has about as many specifics and supporting evidence as does your daily horoscope. Their entire evidence-free arguement can be summed up in one sentence: "Bandwidth demand will increase and we don't think providers will increase capacity because it's too expensive.".

No statistics, no cost analysis, no historical examples- nothing with which to back up their prediction. If that's how they operate, I wouldn't trust Deloitte & Touche to advise me on a $2 bet at the race track much less a multi-billion dollar company.

Maybe they have a more detailed analysis elsewhere, but the linked "prediction" looked like little more than an uninformed guess.
I think that was a typo... it should be Toilette & Douche!
--
Think outside the Fox... Opera

Agent 86

@comcast.net

Ooh! Scary! Exaflood!

nekote, you need to become a more discriminating media consumer. The article you cited is an op-ed piece by the "Discovery Institute", and has nothing to do with the WSJ's news reporting (which is excellent).

Anyway, surely you didn't find that op-ed convincing? It was just some dubious history, assertion with no argument, and a lot of blabber about how bandwidth usage is increasing (in other words, things are proceeding exactly as they have for the last 15 years. Ooh! Scary! Exaflood!)

nixen
Rockin' the Boxen
Premium
join:2002-10-04
Alexandria, VA

Lemme Get This Straight

Carriers are MORE likely to build additional infrastructure if they're allowed to simply sit on existing infrastructure, but partition it up and charge extra for "priority" service on that existing infrastructure?

-tom
dynodb
Premium,VIP
join:2004-04-21
Minneapolis, MN

Re: Lemme Get This Straight

I believe the argument is that they'd have more incentive to invest in infrastructure if high-bandwidth services helped pay for them.

Not necessarily my view, but that's how I view the argument. The money will have to come from somewhere, and likely it will come from subscribers in some form or another, be it higher rates or having to pay for extra bandwidth or certain services. If there's an easy answer, it eludes me.

nixen
Rockin' the Boxen
Premium
join:2002-10-04
Alexandria, VA
·Cox HSI
·Speakeasy

Re: Lemme Get This Straight

said by dynodb See Profile :

I believe the argument is that they'd have more incentive to invest in infrastructure if high-bandwidth services helped pay for them.

Not necessarily my view, but that's how I view the argument. The money will have to come from somewhere, and likely it will come from subscribers in some form or another, be it higher rates or having to pay for extra bandwidth or certain services. If there's an easy answer, it eludes me.
Bandwidth is a funny thing: the more quality banwidth you have, the more people you can sell to. More sales targets means more potential revenue.

If you starve customers of bandwidth, those that are casual users will go away. The serious users will find other avenues. Either way, the customer base goes away. While you don't have to sink more money into new capacity, you have less customers to support the capacity's recurring costs.

-tom
--
"Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the government's purposes are beneficial. The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well meaning but without understanding." -Louis D Brandeis

hdtvneedsfiber

@usfca.edu

bandwith crunch?

people seem to need more bandwidth if they want to support their hdtv
petecellar

join:2002-10-15
Philadelphia, PA

Oh no!!

The Internet will fail as soon as this year because Toilette and Douche say the tubes will be full!
We're doomed.. DOOMED!

It's like it's 1999 all over again!
grandpinaple

join:2006-01-03
New York, NY

Re: Oh no!!

Somebody call the plumber.

Chris 313
Come get some
Premium
join:2004-07-18
Houma, LA
clubs:
·Comcast
·Comcast
·Charter Pipeline
·Comcast Digital Vo..
·AT&T CallVantage

Re: Oh no!!

said by grandpinaple See Profile :

Somebody call the plumber.
We got some big ass pipes he needs to unclog!

Yauch

join:2005-06-24

Re: Oh no!!

Were going to need a racing horse to get those poker chips out!

Chris 313
Come get some
Premium
join:2004-07-18
Houma, LA
clubs:

Re: Oh no!!

Put me down for 20, I'm good for it.
Forums » We're Running Out Of Bandwidthpage: 1 · 2


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