The Broadband Market in 2012Telco deployment impact over-stated, says analyst ( old news - 05:12PM Monday Jul 02 2007) tags: competition · business · bandwidth · stats Sanford Bernstein Senior Analyst Craig Moffett is telling investors that TelcoTV ( FiOS, U-Verse) and next-gen deployment isn't much of a threat to cable operators. Five years from now, in the year 2012, he predicts AT&T will serve just 23% of all U.S. households with U-Verse, while Verizon will serve just 15% with FiOS. After five years and more than $23 billion spent, Verizon's FTTH investment (the most ambitious of all the baby bells) still won't have reached very far into cable competitor territory. By 2012, he predicts the following cable market overlap for FiOS: Comcast, 34%; Time Warner Cable, 25%; Cox, 16%; Cablevision, 79%.  "The telcos, in terms of the size of their footprint, simply aren't a core issue for cable operators -Sanford Bernstein's Greg Moffett |
As for U-Verse, he predicts that 60% of the AT&T network won't be upgraded, making AT&T's market impact even less dramatic. He also repeats well-voiced concerns over whether VDSL/FTTN is offering enough bandwidth (AT&T says any issues will be addressed by line bonding). As it stands there are 348,000 FiOSTV subscribers, and the service is available to 3.1 million households (there are a million total FiOS subscribers). More than 50,000 customers have signed up for AT&T's U-Verse service, and the company says they're doing 600 installations a day.
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|
 
en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
 ·DSL EXTREME
·DSL EXTREME
| FiOS has direct competition... Uverse going for the low end FiOS has Cable working for its money in its markets that have FiOS. Until FiOS is available in ALL Verizon areas at Cable rates, it won't 'beat' cable.
Uverse is (and has been) brushed off as a 2nd rate service.
Until AT&T makes decent deployments (technically my area was deployed May 1... 2 months later, Uverse still not available) it won't help. Also, Uverse MUST be able to upgrade its service beyond its single HD, 6Mbps/1Mbps to compete for the high end. If it wants low end, then they have to be cut rate (which they really aren't).
Cable only has to 'stay the course' on upgrades in Uverse markets.
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Canada = Hollywood North | |
|  | 
DUH
@comcast.net
| Re: FiOS has direct competition... Uverse going for the low end This analyst gets paid to create such a silly report?
Five years more people will have their PCs connected to their TVs, like seen here »www.techavid.com .
WE probably all spend way more time on the net then watching TV, well younger generation to the geeks. Anyway I prefer enjoying TV content free of the web. | |
| 
TK Junk Mail
Go ahead, make my day
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Margate City, NJ
clubs:
 ·Comcast
| Fios TV customer count ?? BBR says:
As it stands, more than a million customers have signed up for FiOS, and the service is available to 3.1 million households.
Moffett says:
Verizon says that at the end of first quarter 2007, its TV service was available to 3.1 million households and already had 348,000 customers, or an 11% penetration rate. The company just announced its one millionth FiOS high-speed data customer
So, the BBR # is for data - NOT TV and is misleading since this report was for TelcoTV.
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| | bogey780
join:2004-03-19
Covington, LA | Re: Fios TV customer count ?? I was gonna mention that. | |
| | |
en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA | Re: Fios TV customer count ?? Since Uverse requires TV with Internet... its numbers won't be the greatest.
If it sold packages up to 25Mbps/2Mbps on its own, then maybe it could sell more.
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Canada = Hollywood North | |
| | bmn
? ? ?
Premium,ExMod 2003-06
join:2001-03-15
hiatus | Looks like an error as it was corrected. | |
| Time4aNAP
Premium
join:2007-04-09
Des Plaines, IL
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| No News Here Yawn. So what? Was there any doubt among the clueful that the telcos' efforts against cable were something less than a genuine effort to get into the TV business? We've known for some time now that a monopolist's business is to break all of the competition, real or imaginary. | |
| |
TK Junk Mail
Go ahead, make my day
Premium
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Margate City, NJ
clubs:
·Comcast
| Re: No News Here said by Time4aNAP  :Yawn. So what? Was there any doubt among the clueful that the telcos' efforts against cable were something less than a genuine effort to get into the TV business? We've known for some time now that a monopolist's business is to break all of the competition, real or imaginary. And which monopolist is the bad guy in your scenario? Telco or cable?
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| | | Time4aNAP
Premium
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Des Plaines, IL
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·Comcast
| Re: No News Here said by TK Junk Mail :And which monopolist is the bad guy in your scenario? Telco or cable? What scenario?
I don't answer loaded questions for obvious reasons. | |
| 
MattE
Obama '08
Premium
join:2003-07-20
Jamestown, NC |  Off Topic
| |
|
boontobust
@verizon.net
| Because.. in much of the country it unfortunately doesn't make economic sense for FTTP, DOCSIS 3.0 to the home with triple play and wireless, so less ambitious deployments settle into less competition amongst providers.
although I think those numbers about deployment are wrong.. (Verizon will overlap more of the cable footprint than projected) announced projections will sharply contrast with reality on the ground five years from now.. and who knows what the regulatory environment will be.. much less to say which companies will be left standing.. or what technologies will be at consumer's finger tips, need we go on to speculate what pricing will be? | |
| | 
Karl Bode
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join:2000-03-02
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| Re: Because.. quote:
much less to say which companies will be left standing..
I boldly predict that AT&T, Comcast and Verizon won't be scrounging dumpsters for their dinner in 2012. In fact I will go so far as to predict executives for those particular companies will be able to buy very nice boats. I know, it's a bold prediction, but I feel confident. | |
| | | Time4aNAP
Premium
join:2007-04-09
Des Plaines, IL
·Speakeasy
·Comcast
| Re: Because.. said by Karl Bode :I boldly predict that AT&T, Comcast and Verizon won't be scrounging dumpsters for their dinner in 2012. Do you mean their top executives and largest shareholders, or everyone down to the least-paid employees? I wouldn't be so sure about those at the lower end of the org. chart. | |
| | | | 
Yauch
join:2005-06-24 | Re: Because.. Yes, because their Union reps have done a terrible job so far. Keeping them in the upper middle class of our society will surely end with most of their employees living in a refrigerator box, eating from dumpsters. | |
| ricep5
Premium
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Jacksonville, FL
·Comcast Formerly ..
 ·AT&T CallVantage
·AT&T Southeast
| 30 years vs. 2 years It took over 30 years for cable to reach its current penetration rate. 348,000 subs in just a couple of years for FiOS is a pretty reasonable hit rate.
When I got cable in 1972, we were the first sub on our street. The second sub didn't come online for another year. Of course, there was no sports salary greed and box office greed then like there is today. (No HBO, No ESPN)
Don't let the short termers get hung up on near term subs. | |
| explaind
join:2007-05-14
| Maybe AT&T *IS* thinking bigger So I've been agreeing with the FTTH vs FTTP debate that FTTH is ultimately unavoidable in the end...until I put together the bigger picture.
Right now, Verizon is spending millions trenching fiber to everyone. They are converting the traditional NID to Fiber LMG's (Last Mile Gateway). AFAIK, the fiber LMG's they are putting in are limited to 100 Mbps. Hey...who's got their hand raised? Yes Johnny...you are correct, an HD IPTV stream does take somewhere up to 40Mbps. And...yes Suzy, what's your question? Yes, you are correct...that would mean that Verizon is going to be limited to two HD IPTV set top boxes per home. Good observation Suzy, you get a gold star.
Now class, we know that HDTV is eventually going to gain wide acceptance by consumers right? So while most homes still don't statistically have even one HD capable TV, within five or six years most will. And...there's a good chance that many will have two. Or three. Or four... Some already do!
Now let's take a survey...how many of you think that most people will want their programming in HD on ALL of their TV's? About 80% percent of you. I agree. The other 20% will probably account for those little fees the government will eventually take out of your paycheck.
Let's look at Ma Bell's other red headed step child..AT & T.
They're still spending millions of dollars converting large portions of their plant to fiber, but they're stopping a little short of the house. A lot of the fiber is stopping at these "cabinets"...you know...the ones in the alley. Yes...Tommy? Ahh...very good...AT & T is using their right of way power to do this. That means they don't have to hire tons of sub-contractors to avoid liability issues...like ruining Ms. Daisy's flower bed.
Now class, we all know that copper already goes from your house to that cabinet right? Yes Jenny, that copper is older than your grandpa. And yes, it can move data about as quick as he can too.
But class, do you know what the difference is between fiber and Grandpa copper? ...(silence)... Copper is a lot cheaper !
AT & T can trench new copper to everyone's house. Yes, this is what Verizon is doing with FTTH. But wait...there's a surprise! Not only is copper a lot cheaper than fiber, but GIGABIT ethernet switches are A LOT cheaper than LMG's. You know...those LMG's that are still in their infancy and require battery backups at each persons house?
So class, are we seeing a difference between Verizon VS. AT & T?
You already have copper with at least four little wires in it coming to your house. Gigabit ethernet requires 8 little wires. Why yes Timmy, if AT & T converted to everyone to gigabit ethernet they could just convert the NID to a switch and use VoIP. This would maintain a truly switched network and still be efficient. Oh, and they could use power over ethernet to power everything from the cabinet onwards.
Yes Billy, that means that tech support doesn't have to worry about Uncle Jed accidentally unplugging his battery backup.
AT & T is going to leverage basic economics to let Verizon and all the others bring down prices on fiber and all the subsequent Customer Premise equipment before they ever roll FTTH. And considering I believe they're fully capable of pushing gigabit ethernet in the not too distant future*, they've got at least a decade to avoid it.
* I know the plant is probably not close to this yet, but all the equipment needed to do this is already there or can easily be there when you have a few million in the bank. And by "there" I mean being manufactured, not installed in your local remote terminal.
I know this post is slightly Off Topic, so I'll provide some insight into telco IPTV deployment: it'll give another choice to many, but it won't bring down the price on "cable" television. Shwew...that was tough.
| |
| | bogey780
join:2004-03-19
Covington, LA
| Re: Maybe AT&T *IS* thinking bigger Well actually MPEG-2 1080p doesn't take 40Mb/s. usually it's around 25-30Mb/s. 720p and 1080i is a over half of that and using AVC instead of MPEG-2 is even less. Though this isn't a problem to Verizon currently. They're using an RF overlay from their PON equipment thanks to WDM. If they did switch to IPTV then ot would be a concern.
Though you are on the right track. FTTC can provide a great deal of bandwidth at a fraction of the cost and with no CPE support by the end-user for basic POTS service. | |
| | | explaind
join:2007-05-14
| Re: Maybe AT&T *IS* thinking bigger Well I did say up to 40Mbps  . Thanks for pointing out that Verizon doesn't use IPTV. I learned that a while back but had forgotten.
In my eyes it just seems stupid to be using/pushing for anything NOT 100% TCP/IP based*. At least for the immediate future (next few years...or decade or three). I do think it's wasting time/money to try (insert type) DSL though when for a little more effort (and I'm fully aware of distance issues, but I think they could be easily dealt with) AT & T could do what I was talking about above. I hope that is their plan.
Also, speaking of MPEG compression and bandwidth...one reason I really believe that (using IPTV) the current generation of LMG's is going to be limited to 2 HD STB's is because of the scalability of the LMG itself. Let's go on the low end and say 25Mbps. Two STB's= 50Mbps. Now we have to have bandwidth for the net...and in a few years I'm going to guess that 25Mbps (maybe 20 down, 5 up?) will be the normal package. We're at 75 megs. Now leave a little room for VoIP (I'm thinking a purely TCP/IP environment ) and we've got a very busy LMG. I've seen the current gen LMG's struggle under a load, so I'd hate to find out what happens at the 80+ meg mark. Granted, VoIP is very minimal.
I'm not saying that future LMG's won't be able to push a full 100Mbps (you always have overhead though), but I've definitely seen some of the current ones want to unmount themselves and run for it.
With some tweaking (read: smoke and mirrors), I think 3 HD STB's could be a possibility.
Regardless...I now think that AT & T is in the game just as much as Verizon is. They're definitely not technologically ahead (as fiber is only limited by the devices on both ends), but financially they're probably going to be ahead for a while if they do what I'm guessing they're shooting for long-term. I thought (just like everyone else) that AT & T was going to lag behind Verizon a lot here in a few years, but really I think the playing field is going to be very level.
*=If they're going to spend the money/time/effort to upgrade everything. | |
| | | | DGLewis
join:2006-03-10
Freehold, NJ
| Re: Maybe AT&T *IS* thinking bigger MPEG-4 AVC can carry HD video at 8 Mb/s. Some codec vendors have claimed they have further tuned AVC to get HD down to 6 Mb/s. 50 Mb/s would be plenty for 4 HD streams and 25 Mb/s internet. Though AT&T's only getting 30 Mb/s to 35 Mb/s, so that could be a problem. | |
| | Time4aNAP
Premium
join:2007-04-09
Des Plaines, IL
·Speakeasy
·Comcast
| As Usual, the Ego / Knowledge Ratio... said by explaind :So I've been agreeing with the FTTH vs FTTP debate that FTTH is ultimately unavoidable in the end...until I put together the bigger picture. Ah...FTTP and FTTH mean the same thing. Having a debate over the same thing is kind of like a person without a multiple personality disorder arguing with himself.
Right now, Verizon is spending millions trenching fiber to everyone. They are converting the traditional NID to Fiber LMG's (Last Mile Gateway). Even in Texas (and Alaska) no demarc is as large as a mile. Do you know what a NID is?
AFAIK, the fiber LMG's they are putting in are limited to 100 Mbps. Although there are different grades of fiber, each strand is good for at least a few Gbps. Even if they're running cheap plastic fiber, using multimode transceivers, all it takes is a quick card swap to increase bandwidth a thousand-fold.
The other 20% will probably account for those little fees the government will eventually take out of your paycheck. Is that your left-handed way of claiming that poor people want to be poor?
Let's look at Ma Bell's other red headed step child..AT & T. You don't get a gold star. First, ellipses use three periods in a row, not two. Second, it's AT&T, as in "American Telephone and Telegraph", not "at and tea". Also, red-headed is hyphenated, and stepchild is one word. And the suggestion that the company formerly known as SBC is somehow discriminated against, well that's just plain stupid!
They're still spending millions of dollars converting large portions of their plant to fiber, but they're stopping a little short of the house. A lot of the fiber is stopping at these "cabinets"...you know...the ones in the alley. Yes...Tommy? Ahh...very good...AT & T is using their right of way power to do this. That means they don't have to hire tons of sub-contractors to avoid liability issues...like ruining Ms. Daisy's flower bed. Cabinets like this?
»mysite.verizon.net/vzeofuds/imag···idge.jpg
That's a Verizon FIOS cabinet, actually. One of their smaller ones, in fact. As an ILEC itself, Verizon has its own rights-of-way, just like "AT & T". No, it's not about liability. It's simply cheaper to plunk down one of these refrigerator-sized vaults wherever they like than it is to put them out of sight. FYI--Ms. Daisy's flowerbed is fair game as a place to put one of these, and Ms. Daisy has no legal recourse if they do.
Now class, we all know that copper already goes from your house to that cabinet right? Wrong. Copper is a metal that's valued for being malleable, ductile, and being a good conductor of heat and electricity. Where copper "goes" is up to people. And the people who hooked up twisted-pair copper wiring to your house, back before there was carrier-grade fiber, terminated the other end of that loop at a central office (CO), not at some box from the future.
Yes Jenny, that copper is older than your grandpa. And yes, it can move data about as quick as he can too. Can't argue with that. I know of lots of 80-something people using their DSL service to keep up with their friends and family, grandchildren included, along with the other things that the Internet is used for. And 8 Mbps SDSL capability at over 9000' is mighty spry for the 80-something copper loop, complete with wax paper insulation and a lead-sheathed trunk, that carried my DSL service.
But class, do you know what the difference is between fiber and Grandpa copper? ...(silence)... Copper is a lot cheaper ! Ah...no. Category 3 copper cabling costs more per foot than a bundle of glass fiber cable. It's been that way for well over a decade.
AT & T [sic] can trench new copper to everyone's house [sic]. Can, but doesn't need to, as it's already there.
And not everyone lives in the same house. 
GIGABIT ethernet [sic] switches are A LOT cheaper than LMG's [sic]. That's a mighty subjective claim. Do you know what a basic Cisco Catalyst® 6500 costs?
You already have copper with at least four little wires in it coming to your house. The correct answer is two. At least two wires are required for a local loop, not four. You see, there's this thing called a "hybrid"...
Gigabit ethernet [sic] requires 8 little wires. Why yes Timmy, if AT & T converted to everyone to gigabit ethernet they could just convert the NID to a switch and use VoIP. Sorry Timmy, but that's incorrect. Even if your home is one of the very few that has eight good phone wires running to it, they aren't suitable for Gigabit Ethernet.
The fact of the matter is that very few homes have a NID, because very few homes have T-1 service. Regular phone service, sometimes called "POTS", doesn't use a NID. Any form of Ethernet that uses electrical wiring (copper, aluminum, silver Litz wire; it makes no difference) is limited to a distance of 100 meters between termination points. That's about one-half of a city block. Not very practical or cost-effective for the stated purpose.
Oh, and they could use power over ethernet to power everything from the cabinet onwards. Well, at least up to the demarc, that is. The customer is responsible for the CPE side of the demarc. So there's no reason to deploy PoE.
AT & T [sic] is going to leverage basic economics... Sorry kid, but if you want to get into an economics class, you're going to have to bring up your grades first. You get an F on this report. Next time, do the research instead of making things up. | |
| | | explaind
join:2007-05-14
| Re: As Usual, the Ego / Knowledge Ratio... Before I try to explain, I want to state that I was rather surprised to have such a demeaning post targeted at me. I have a general interest in technology like most people on this forum, and I don't claim to know everything there is about fiber or anything else. While my first post was written in a rather satirical tone, I was not intending for it to sound like I was talking down to anyone. It was an attempt at humor to try lighten up what was a rather lengthy post. I'm sorry if I offended you or anyone else in the way I wrote it. I was hoping some people would smile at the way it was written.
quote:
quote:
So I've been agreeing with the FTTH vs FTTP debate that FTTH is ultimately unavoidable in the end...until I put together the bigger picture.
Ah...FTTP and FTTH mean the same thing. Having a debate over the same thing is kind of like a person without a multiple personality disorder arguing with himself.
Well apparently you were able to understand what I was trying to say well enough to make fun of me, so apparently I was making some sense.
By Fiber To The Home, I was thinking of the LMG replacing the box on the side of the house* where the telco and the customer side meet.
By Fiber To The Premise, I was thinking of fiber in the general area...maybe a few blocks. I don't know. I'm sorry if this was the incorrect term for what A T & T is doing with uverse. Is Fiber To The Curb more appropriate?
*= I've always heard the demarc referred to as the NID. I think you were aware of what I was meaning regardless of the term.
»www.homephonewiring.com/nid.html
I have absolutely nothing to do with that site. Apparently I'm not the only one who refers to the demarc as the NID. Sorry if it caused any confusion. I'll be sure to always refer to it as the demarc from now on.
Right now, Verizon is spending millions trenching fiber to everyone. They are converting the traditional NID to Fiber LMG's (Last Mile Gateway). Even in Texas (and Alaska) no demarc is as large as a mile. Do you know what a NID is?
AFAIK, the fiber LMG's they are putting in are limited to 100 Mbps. Although there are different grades of fiber, each strand is good for at least a few Gbps. Even if they're running cheap plastic fiber, using multimode transceivers, all it takes is a quick card swap to increase bandwidth a thousand-fold.
From my understanding, there are LMG's out there that can't be upgraded. The whole unit itself has to swapped. I have no idea if the LMG's Verizon is using are capable of being upgraded. You have called me on this one, and I was wrong for assuming that they can't.
I should have stated "some carriers deploying Fiber To The Home may not be able to upgrade the current LMG's from my understanding."
The other 20% will probably account for those little fees the government will eventually take out of your paycheck. Is that your left-handed way of claiming that poor people want to be poor?
Let's look at Ma Bell's other red headed step child..AT & T. You don't get a gold star. First, ellipses use three periods in a row, not two. Second, it's AT&T, as in "American Telephone and Telegraph", not "at and tea". Also, red-headed is hyphenated, and stepchild is one word. And the suggestion that the company formerly known as SBC is somehow discriminated against, well that's just plain stupid!
They're still spending millions of dollars converting large portions of their plant to fiber, but they're stopping a little short of the house. A lot of the fiber is stopping at these "cabinets"...you know...the ones in the alley. Yes...Tommy? Ahh...very good...AT & T is using their right of way power to do this. That means they don't have to hire tons of sub-contractors to avoid liability issues...like ruining Ms. Daisy's flower bed.
Cabinets like this? »mysite.verizon.net/vzeofuds/imag···idge.jpg That's a Verizon FIOS cabinet, actually. One of their smaller ones, in fact. As an ILEC itself, Verizon has its own rights-of-way, just like "AT & T". No, it's not about liability. It's simply cheaper to plunk down one of these refrigerator-sized vaults wherever they like than it is to put them out of sight. FYI--Ms. Daisy's flowerbed is fair game as a place to put one of these, and Ms. Daisy has no legal recourse if they do.
Now class, we all know that copper already goes from your house to that cabinet right? Wrong. Copper is a metal that's valued for being malleable, ductile, and being a good conductor of heat and electricity. Where copper "goes" is up to people. And the people who hooked up twisted-pair copper wiring to your house, back before there was carrier-grade fiber, terminated the other end of that loop at a central office (CO), not at some box from the future.
So in 2007, many people ARE NOT served out of a remote terminal?
Yes Jenny, that copper is older than your grandpa. And yes, it can move data about as quick as he can too. Can't argue with that. I know of lots of 80-something people using their DSL service to keep up with their friends and family, grandchildren included, along with the other things that the Internet is used for. And 8 Mbps SDSL capability at over 9000' is mighty spry for the 80-something copper loop, complete with wax paper insulation and a lead-sheathed trunk, that carried my DSL service.
But class, do you know what the difference is between fiber and Grandpa copper? ...(silence)... Copper is a lot cheaper ! Ah...no. Category 3 copper cabling costs more per foot than a bundle of glass fiber cable. It's been that way for well over a decade.
AT & T [sic] can trench new copper to everyone's house [sic]. Can, but doesn't need to, as it's already there. And not everyone lives in the same house.
You're missing the whole point of my post. I'll try to explain again at the end of my post.
GIGABIT ethernet [sic] switches are A LOT cheaper than LMG's [sic]. That's a mighty subjective claim. Do you know what a basic Cisco Catalyst® 6500 costs?
You already have copper with at least four little wires in it coming to your house. The correct answer is two. At least two wires are required for a local loop, not four. You see, there's this thing called a "hybrid"...
Gigabit ethernet [sic] requires 8 little wires. Why yes Timmy, if AT & T converted to everyone to gigabit ethernet they could just convert the NID to a switch and use VoIP.
Sorry Timmy, but that's incorrect. Even if your home is one of the very few that has eight good phone wires running to it, they aren't suitable for Gigabit Ethernet. The fact of the matter is that very few homes have a NID, because very few homes have T-1 service. Regular phone service, sometimes called "POTS", doesn't use a NID. Any form of Ethernet that uses electrical wiring (copper, aluminum, silver Litz wire; it makes no difference) is limited to a distance of 100 meters between termination points. That's about one-half of a city block. Not very practical or cost-effective for the stated purpose.
Oh, and they could use power over ethernet to power everything from the cabinet onwards. Well, at least up to the demarc, that is. The customer is responsible for the CPE side of the demarc. So there's no reason to deploy PoE.
AT & T [sic] is going to leverage basic economics... Sorry kid, but if you want to get into an economics class, you're going to have to bring up your grades first. You get an F on this report. Next time, do the research instead of making things up.
All that I was trying to say is...I think A T & T could basically build a big gigabit LAN (uh oh...is that the appropriate term? Or is it a MAN at that point?) in each neighborhood. At 1Gbps, I was guessing that it could last well into the future without having to do FTTH.
Thanks for belittling me. | |
| | | | Time4aNAP
Premium
join:2007-04-09
Des Plaines, IL
·Speakeasy
·Comcast
| Re: As Usual, the Ego / Knowledge Ratio... said by explaind :Before I try to explain, I want to state that I was rather surprised to have such a demeaning post targeted at me. You demean yourself with your combined self-aggrandizement coupled with misinformation. A lot of people who post here are working professionals in the industry, and know their stuff. Talking down to the board as if we are all grade-school children, and you are the all-knowing teacher is a direct insult to the many hours of hard work and sacrifice that went into gaining the real knowledge that exists around here.
How dare you attack me for calling a spade a spade? You and you alone are responsible for what you wrote. Where your claims are false, you have nobody to blame except yourself. When you take pot-shots at entire groups of people, that makes you the bigot, not the other way around. If you find my comments about what you wrote unpalatable, you would do better not to portray yourself as some kind of innocent victim. Without your words, I would have had no comment.
It was an attempt at humor... There's a difference between humor and having a laugh at someone else's expense. The first requires wit. The latter only requires cruelty.
I'm sorry if I offended you or anyone else in the way I wrote it. I was hoping some people would smile at the way it was written. Fair enough. Let's examine your points:
Well apparently you were able to understand what I was trying to say well enough to make fun of me, so apparently I was making some sense. Not off to a very good start, are we? The continued ad hominem attack, not good.
By Fiber To The Home, I was thinking of the LMG replacing the box on the side of the house* where the telco and the customer side meet.
By Fiber To The Premise, I was thinking of fiber in the general area...maybe a few blocks. I don't know. I'm sorry if this was the incorrect term for what A T & T is doing with uverse. Is Fiber To The Curb more appropriate? I have no clue as to how you arrived at those conclusions. All I can say is that whenever I have the slightest doubt about the meaning of a word, I head straight for a good dictionary. Although some very wealthy person might own a large tract of land, which would technically be considered their premises, if they live in a structure on the same premises, it is customary to run utility services all the way to that structure, usually a house.
My research indicates that "FTTH" and "FTTP" are used interchangeably within the industry. This might not be the case with FTTC.
I've always heard the demarc referred to as the NID. I think you were aware of what I was meaning regardless of the term. There you go again with the personal attacks! I've never claimed to be able to read minds, I don't believe I can, and strongly doubt that you could prove otherwise. Take responsibility for your own words!
I have absolutely nothing to do with that site. Apparently I'm not the only one who refers to the demarc as the NID. Sorry if it caused any confusion. I'll be sure to always refer to it as the demarc from now on. While there may be strength in numbers, might does not make right. Next time, you might want to look for something more authoritative than some individual's personal website.
If you read my second post, you'll note that I state that fiber is only limited by the devices on both ends. I was fully aware of this before I posted. If that's the case, then why did you knowingly post erroneous information in the first place?
You seem to be implying that I'm somehow at fault for not altering my response to your incorrect and uncorrected post. Making contradictory posts does nothing to clarify your point, and I'm not obligated to jump every time you change your story.
From my understanding, there are LMG's out there that can't be upgraded. The whole unit itself has to swapped. I have no idea if the LMG's Verizon is using are capable of being upgraded. You have called me on this one, and I was wrong for assuming that they can't. For those of us who think "light machine gun" when we read "LMG", and generally see terms containing "last mile" coming from marketing (as opposed to engineering) sources, you might want to clarify. To quote your earlier treatise, "converting the traditional NID to Fiber LMG's [sic]", you have placed your LMG at the demarc, which doesn't jibe with the "last mile" part. Precisely what is it that you consider to be a LMG?
I'm sorry. That was my shot at humor. I wasn't shooting for a subliminal message or anything. The message that I saw was far from subliminal. IMO it's in poor taste at best. I'll leave it at that.
I'm sorry you found that part of my post unreadable. See my statement at the beginning of this post for my feelings about your last sentence. For a company that's taken the savage beating that you allege, AT&T is remarkably healthy. The company has a long and notorious record of unethical and illegal business practices. It's not my fault that you chose to play cheerleader for them and to employ their tactics, it's yours.
I wasn't touching on a right of way debate (is that supposed to be hyphenated?). It's usually hyphenated when used as a noun. For example, a train has the right of way at a railroad crossing, but the railroad's right-of-way includes land that extends beyond the rails.
I'm not aware of any debate over the right of way or the rights-of-way given to ILECs. The fact remains that you implied that Verizon has no rights-of-way in your statement. That's not true, and it's misleading.
I was just stating that before A T & T ran fresh copper OR fiber that they could use their right of way powers to upgrade their copper plant to fiber. The right of way is not a power. Just ask someone who was hit by a driver who ran a red light. In fact, it's not even a right for companies using their rights-of-way for profit, it's a privilege.
How exactly does any company "upgrade their copper plant to fiber" without running any "fresh" fiber? Alchemy? Have you patented a method to turn copper wire into glass fiber?
I was meaning that they could do this without trenching through people's yards initially. I wasn't aware they could place one in my driveway though. There are many, many things that AT&T could do. That list is nearly as long as the list of things that AT&T refuses to do. What's your point?
So in 2007, many people ARE NOT served out of a remote terminal? Please tell me that you're making another attempt at humor here. I'm the kind of person who notices things that most others don't. I have no doubt that RTs exist somewhere. But based on my observations, they're pretty rare.
Once again, it was an attempt at humor. Also, I'm assuming that wiring to the demarc on the customer side may be a little stale. And once again I'll point out that derogatory comments aren't considered to be humor by a lot of people. Assumptions are a poor substitute for fact. Even informed guesses are better.
Which is cheaper to splice? Are you saying it's cheaper to run fiber to the home than it would be brand new copper? Yes, that's precisely what I'm saying. Of course that doesn't include the cost of the terminal equipment. But if the telcos were really as interested in competing with cable companies as they claim to be, they'd be willing to make that capital investment.
I wasn't aware that thin gauge copper wire could be reliably spliced. So I have no idea about the cost either.
I was thinking CPE, not carrier side. Maybe you should consider writing what you mean. Even if there are lots of mind-readers out there, writing the opposite of what you mean sends them a mixed message.
I saw a gigabit switch in Fry's the other day for $25. Apples and oranges? No, that's what I was trying to make as one of my points. Do you think A T & T couldn't find a way to mass produce CPE (replacing [sic] the demarc...and if you read my second post I'm referring to a 100% TCP/IP environment) for less than say $50? What does TCP/IP have to do with any of this? 
I seriously doubt that the new AT&T's vision of owning everything, just like the old AT&T did, includes Gigabit Ethernet. And the chances of bringing Western Electric back from the dead to manufacture anything in the US are nil. You must not have noticed that the US has lost the ability to manufacture consumer electronics for the mass market.
Precisely what is your point? In plain english, please.
So there's not (at least) 4 separate INDIVIDUAL WIRES in telephone wiring? No, blanket statements like that are not true.
I could care less what they're used for... Good, because they're not suitable for Gigabit Ethernet.
all [sic] that I was trying to state is that an ethernet cable has 8 wires right? Wrong. Various different types of cable are used for Ethernet. Some cable used for Ethernet has lots of little wires, but only two conductors.
And your phone line has at least four right? Wrong. I've already covered this, remember?
I was trying to say that maybe it's not too far fetched to think that CAT5e could be run to each house. Again, why don't you just write what you mean? It should be pretty obvious to you by now that obfuscation isn't working too well for you.
Once again, I'm thinking 100% TCP/IP. And once again, I'm thinking "WTF does that have to do with the price of tea in China?"
See above. NID= demarc. No, NID != demarc.
I think distance limitations could be easily overcome by A T & T. And some people thought that David Koresh was Jesus Christ. So what?
What's going to power a CPE switch when the power goes out? See my 1st post/attempt at humor. Considering that all of this exists only in your imagination, you might choose something truly humorous, like gerbils on a little spinning cage, or something like that.
You don't believe that millions of miles of fiber being purchased by Verizon and other companies won't effect the price of fiber? Even if it's a few cents? How about millions of LMG's being produced? Yeah, how about that?
All that I was trying to say is...I think A T & T could basically build a big gigabit LAN (uh oh...is that the appropriate term? Or is it a MAN at that point?) in each neighborhood. At 1Gbps, I was guessing that it could last well into the future without having to do FTTH. For a LEC/IXC like AT&T, WAN would be more appropriate. But if it's going to be one network per neighborhood, that could be LAN or CAN (campus area network)...oh, just make something up.
All of that begs the question: why?
Thanks for belittling me. I can't take the credit for that. Seriously. | |
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wilbilt
Pronto Resurrected
Premium
join:2004-01-11
Oroville, CA
·Pacific Bell - SBC
| said by Time4aNAP :And 8 Mbps SDSL capability at over 9000' is mighty spry for the 80-something copper loop, complete with wax paper insulation and a lead-sheathed trunk, that carried my DSL service. Paper is not made from wax. The correct term is waxed paper.
My neighborhood has been served by a remote terminal since 1983.
"SNI" and "NID" are commonly (and interchangeably) used to describe the device at the demarc. I still had a "protector" on my two wire "zipcord" drop until a few years ago.
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We were taking a vote when the ground came up and hit us. | |
| | | | Time4aNAP
Premium
join:2007-04-09
Des Plaines, IL
·Speakeasy
·Comcast
| Re: As Usual, the Ego / Knowledge Ratio... said by wilbilt :Paper is not made from wax. The correct term is waxed paper. Take it up with Webster, and all of the companies that sell "wax paper".
My neighborhood has been served by a remote terminal since 1983. That's one...
"SNI" and "NID" are commonly (and interchangeably) used to describe the device at the demarc. I still had a "protector" on my two wire "zipcord" drop until a few years ago. And what device would that be? It's not like any particular device is needed, you know. I've seen demarcs that have nothing but the local loop and customer premises loop wires. Not even a terminal block. | |
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wilbilt
Pronto Resurrected
Premium
join:2004-01-11
Oroville, CA
·Pacific Bell - SBC
| Re: As Usual, the Ego / Knowledge Ratio... said by Time4aNAP :said by wilbilt :Paper is not made from wax. The correct term is waxed paper. Take it up with Webster, and all of the companies that sell "wax paper". My neighborhood has been served by a remote terminal since 1983. That's one... "SNI" and "NID" are commonly (and interchangeably) used to describe the device at the demarc. I still had a "protector" on my two wire "zipcord" drop until a few years ago. And what device would that be? It's not like any particular device is needed, you know. I've seen demarcs that have nothing but the local loop and customer premises loop wires. Not even a terminal block. Yes, Webster says the terms are interchangable...as are SNI and NID.
You are one up on me if you have seen demarcs without at least a grounded protector. Ma Bell doesn't like CPE directly connected to the telco side of things. Whether it's a Network Interface Device, a Subscriber Network Interface, or a lowly protector, there should be something there.
The same applies to cable demarcs. There could simply be a grounded connector block or splitter, but it would be considered as the above...the point at which the subscriber connects to the company plant.
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We were taking a vote when the ground came up and hit us. | |
| | bmn
? ? ?
Premium,ExMod 2003-06
join:2001-03-15
hiatus
·Packet8
·Cox HSI
·AT&T Southeast
| Re: Maybe AT&T *IS* thinking bigger said by explaind :You already have copper with at least four little wires in it coming to your house. Gigabit ethernet requires 8 little wires. Why yes Timmy, if AT & T converted to everyone to gigabit ethernet they could just convert the NID to a switch and use VoIP. This would maintain a truly switched network and still be efficient. Oh, and they could use power over ethernet to power everything from the cabinet onwards. Uhm, no, sorry, that won't work...
1. If a telco is going to rip up the old copper infrastructure, it makes little sense to replace it with copper. They would likely take advantage of the situation and plonk down fibre since the cost of maintenance is less for fibre networks.
2. Delivering GigE over copper to each home, as you have suggested, would be INSANELY expensive, probably even more expensive than FTTP. Why ? Gige over copper has a distance limitation of 100 meters, or about 325 feet, meaning that the network operator would have to put GigE switches within 100 meters of each premises. That means LOTS more enclosures, LOTS more equipment and LOTS more points of failure, ergo more maintenance headaches.
3. Power of ethernet does not work the way you have outlined. PoE switches and injectors get their power from traditional utilities. Unless you invent a special switch that can somehow pull it from existing telco infrastructure without overloading said infrastructure, it won't work. And they would likely be pretty pricey since they aren't standard equipment.
4. In order to maintain GigE performance across a network, you have to maintain at least CAT 5e specs on your physical network. VERY difficult to do when those wires are exposed to extremes of temperature, strong winds, the weight of snow (where it snows), etc.
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Prove it...
Save the Internet Time (NTP) service, use the pool. | |
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ztmike
Premium
join:2001-08-02 | Cherry picking? If Verizon Fios doesn't cherry pick to where to install their new fiber service, how do they pick then? Do they go by population? | |
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PGHammer
join:2003-06-09
Accokeek, MD
clubs:
| Re: Cherry picking? That is pretty much how they choose where to deploy: by population (specifically, by population *density*). Take three counties, all in Maryland: Montgomery, Prince George's, and Anne Arundel. FiOS is being deployed in all three counties; further all three are suburban jurisdictions. However, Prince George's has the greatest population density (despite being the second largest in area of the three counties, it is the largest in population), and is thus the furthest along in FiOS penetration. Anne Arundel is the smallest of the three in both area and population (however, it is second in population density), and thus trails Prince George's (with which it has a common border) by some. Montgomery County has a larger physical area than Prince George's, but a smaller population, and is the least-dense of the three counties (while all three counties have municipal jurisdictions, I was speaking of overall population density in each county); throw in a certain amount of bureaucratic wrangling (at the municipal level) in MoCo not present in the other two counties, and hence Montgomery County continues to trail both Prince George's and Anne Arundel County (it also doesn't help that Montgomery also has a VERY sparsely-populated northern section). | |
| AMDonUT2004
join:2006-06-12
Bedford, VA | back to the future 2012 10% of all americans have access broadband
2022 80% of all americans have access to broadband
and there will still be dial-up  | |
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