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story category Analysts Say XM / Sirius Merger is “Imminent”
Stocks soar with the prediction
(old news - 10:20AM Saturday Dec 01 2007)
tags: satellite · Radio · business
Tipped by TKJunkMail See Profile
XM and Sirius stocks went up yesterday after a prediction by an analyst that the DOJ will approve their merger in the immediate future. Robert Peck says that he has Washington D.C. contacts who have given him the inside scoop and called the merger “imminent”. He’s expecting the DOJ approval to come as early as Monday. This doesn’t mean, however, that the merger will occur immediately afterwards. It’s still waiting on approval from the FCC, a decision which isn’t expected to come until closer to year’s end.

The major argument against the merger is that it will limit competition in the market and create a monopoly. This point has been rebutted in a number of ways. Some say that there will eventually only be one company either way, whether it’s through merger or the bankruptcy of one of them. Others say that there remains competition from traditional radio as well as new radio technologies. The stock market seems hopeful that the DOJ / FCC will agree that the merger makes sense. This recent report added to investors' optimism.

Related:
  1. XM/Sirius Suspicious of Anti-Merger E-mails
  2. XM / Sirius Merger Extended
  3. XM/Sirius Merger Finally Approved
  4. WildBlue Adds More Capacity
  5. DirecTV Offers NFL Games Via Broadband
  6. Which Telecom Giants Will Merge Next?
  7. ViaSat Buys Wild Blue for $568 Million
  8. DirecTV Sale To Baby Bell Rumor Heats Up (Again)
Forums » Analysts Say XM / Sirius Merger is “Imminent”
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ztmike
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um

As far as i know both companies are doing good, why would 1 die and the other not?

Please..

You can bet your ass, if this merger takes place you will see: higher prices, higher price of radios/ more ads/ and god only knows whats going to happen to the free XM stream AOL Radio has.
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Re: um

said by ztmike See Profile :

As far as i know both companies are doing good, why would 1 die and the other not?
Neither is doing well.

XM has never made a profit:
»finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=XMSR&annual

and neither has Sirius, which is losing more every year than XM:
»finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=SIRI&annual
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cbrigante2
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Re: um

said by TKJunkMail See Profile :

said by ztmike See Profile :

As far as i know both companies are doing good, why would 1 die and the other not?
Neither is doing well.

XM has never made a profit:
»finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=XMSR&annual

and neither has Sirius, which is losing more every year than XM:
»finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=SIRI&annual
I'm no financial genius, but how does combining two no profit companies into one magically make them any profit? I would agree that higher prices would be coming next.

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1 edit

Re: um

said by cbrigante2 See Profile :

I'm no financial genius, but how does combining two no profit companies into one magically make them any profit? I would agree that higher prices would be coming next.
For one, they wouldn't have to spend millions of advertisement dollars competing against each other. Also, the collective assets of both companies would be joined. I think those two ideas are part of the equation.
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Because you wouldn't have to have 2 of everything. You have all those customers with one of everything.
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Strictly speaking it would allow them to only pay license fees once for content, but serve the combined user base. That makes sense.
From what I've been hearing every time the contracts come up the recording industry slams them, and then, and I'm not sure why, but they can't sell advertising for anything worth buying.
Bad business model, but good idea.
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nightstar75

@salvagedirect.com

You asked why would joining 2 non profitable compnaies be benificial?

Savings come from:
- As stated by one person, advertisement money to compete against the other.

- Research fees to design new equipment would be combined to one company and could be cut by 25%.

- # of employees will be cut down, especially the big wigs which will walk away with a pretty profit from the increase of the stock price.

- Again, stock price will increase allowing invetors to control only one company instead of two.

- Better quality of radio by combining the best planners the two companies have thus more customers and the possibility of an a-la-crate package (you pick what you want and want only and pay so many cents/dollars per channel per month). This will also give XM/Siris a better understanding of what people want, thus get rid of channels that 75% of the listeners will not listen to.

imanogre

join:2005-11-29
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Higher prices wouldn't necessarily be coming next. A couple of years ago ValuJet and AirTran combined. Both were suffering greatly. ValuJet had just had the large crash in the Everglades and the subsequent shutdown for 6 months and AirTran had never made a profit. By combining these 2 companies, they were able to combine their synergies (buzz word) and become a very profitable company. Every company has cost that are associated with just running a business. Now these companies can share that cost burden.

HR, IT, Legal, consumer relations, marketing; All these cost can be combined to save the larger company money. There will probably be layoffs though, and that's the unfortunate byproduct of most mergers.

shghgsdfh

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TKJunkMail See Profile

that info is not correct. siri is losong less money than XM. you need to know how to read financial charts such as balance sheets, income statement. XM is in serious trouble. Siri has about a - 0.44 cents per share, XM about - 1.69 cents per share. Siri but 1st quarter 2008 will have a positive quarter and actually start making money. XM has at least 1 year to go.

do me a favour and READ.
tnewell
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Re: um

Maybe someone else needs to learn to read income statements and financial information. In real dollars Sirius lost $1,104,867,000 for the period ending 12/31/06. In real dollars XM lost $715,782,000 for the same period according to the reference. Earnings per share do not dilute real dollars and in anybody's book a lost of over 1 billion is more than a loss of 3/4 of a billion. Oh and BTW XM Stock was trading at $15.60 per share and Sirius was at $3.83 per share.

Do everyone a favor and take some accounting courses.

SterlingJ85
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4 edits

Re: um

Yes, but you need to understand what market cap. is.

Take the price per share and add the number of outstanding shares for each company. You'll see the market cap. (public worth) of the company.

SIRI - $5.63 Billion
XMSR - $4.90 Billion

Share prices don't indicate everything! In fact, they do not indicate much at all unless your about to be delisted! lol

Sirius and XM aren't going anywhere operating independently, they are adding capital costs because at the rate of subscriber growth they know they will still become profitable eventually. Look a few years back before Stern was signed and brought on.. Sirius was about to hit cash flow positive within the next two quarters but spent $500 million on Stern because they knew it would ramp up sub growth. The same mentality was applied to all forms of programming to ramp sub growth, including advertising dollars. If they needed to, they could cut capital expenditures and be profitable very quickly.
tnewell
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Re: um

Market cap is current market value of the entities stock price for its issued and outstanding shares. That is the money that stockholders are paying for the stock ownership. It does not fund deficit spending by the entity. The money spent for a share of stock does not go to the issuer on the secondary market. They only get money on initial offering and that is another story all together becasue the company does not get all of the money on an IPO. A Loss is still a Loss no mater how you sugar coat it, a company that continually racks up lossess will not survive no matter its market cap.

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said by ztmike See Profile :

As far as i know both companies are doing good ...
Apparently you don't know very far.
madrhino

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said by ztmike See Profile :

and god only knows whats going to happen to the free XM stream AOL Radio has.
Do a google for "soundexchange" and you will find your answer to that.
I know better than to comment on it due to the inevitable attacks from the not so smart on any post that suggests anything except bending over for big corporations.

texans20
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Not an expert

I don't know much about investing, but isn't it somewhat illegal or unethical for these type of predictions? I mean, what if the analyst had information that the merger would be denied, but he decided to use his position for personal gain? What if the analyst is full of shit and knows nothing either way? What's to stop the analyst from investing, or notifying close friends/family to invest, right before his announcement to make a lot of money.
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Re: Not an expert

said by texans20 See Profile :

I don't know much about investing, ... What's to stop the analyst from investing, or notifying close friends/family to invest, right before his announcement to make a lot of money.
that is why Martha Stewart went to jail...to alert others that the Feds are watching.
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Re: Not an expert

Which I think is ridiculous. If you know a stock's going to rise, you should buy. If you're standing on the train tracks and the train is coming, you should get off the tracks. Unless, of course, someone with inside information told you the train was coming.
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Re: Not an expert

it's not legal to do it before the public announcement, which was texans20's question. after the public announcement everything is fair game.
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dsl15

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Re: Not an expert

This is not illegal. Analyst can say anything they want. They are just a bunch of nobodies with opinions, which is given out to the public for free on TV and radio stations. What Martha Stewart did was insider trading, and was then found guilty of lying.

RockyBB
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Re: Not an expert

Hey dsl15! Read the original question! He said
"what if the analyst had information that the merger would be denied."
That is insider information; it doesn't matter if the info was from the company or from the regulators -- if it's not public information, then it's insider information.
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1 edit

Re: Not an expert

You are correct my friend.

It would be unwise for any analyst to comment on any company that he/she has insider information for.

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2 edits

Re: Not an expert

said by dsl15 See Profile :

You are correct my friend.

It would be unwise for any analyst to comment on any company that he/she has insider information for.
Incorrect my friend.

An analyst comments on inside info all the time. That is what they do for a living. An analyst only gets in trouble if they trade the stocks they are commenting on or give that info to others before their column comes out - especially if they say buy a particular stock and then hype that stock in their column, thereby driving the price up.
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jpl931

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Analysts make (not necessarily) educated guesses concerning the viability of the future and profit abilty of satellite radio. If XM and Sirius do merge the hype alone will add some money to their shallow money coffers. But the road to being in the black is many years away if at all.

DotMac4
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1 edit
The inverse of typical Hollywood Justice.

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said by RockyBB See Profile :

that is why Martha Stewart went to jail...
Martha Stewart was never convicted of insider trading. She was found guilty of obstruction of justice, conspiracy and making false statements.
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Re: Not an expert

said by pnh102 See Profile :

said by RockyBB See Profile :

that is why Martha Stewart went to jail...
Martha Stewart was never convicted of insider trading. She was found guilty of obstruction of justice, conspiracy and making false statements.
Which is why the Feds are after Barry Bonds.Who cares if he cheated?(I mean I do, but that's just sports) They don't like being lied to-it's THE cardinal sin in DC, disrespecting someones temporary robes of authority.They want his behind to make a big trophy example of.

mocycler
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To add to what the others said, Martha was tipped off by a company executive who had information not publicly available. This is the very essence of "insider trading."

Analysts use, or are at least are supposed to be using, public information to make predictions. As long as they work within this small but important requirement, they can say anything they want.

mocycler
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2 edits

Stern on Both!

that would be nice...

they do have to make it better for the consumer, i hope thats not done by more "product" but instead by cheaper rates

it will most likely be tiered services, so ill most likely pay more for Stern....

DotMac4
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Re: Stern on Both!

It would be nice to have Stern and MLB without having to have 2 radios and paying two subscriptions.

According to Mel and what may end up being a merger condition, we would also be offered a la carte pricing for some channels.
Mattinee

join:2007-10-24
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Re: Stern on Both!

i picture: basic package around $9.95 (cheaper thean monthly service now) and extras like stern around $9.95, MLB $14.95, etc...

sucks, i know....

DotMac4
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1 edit

Re: Stern on Both!

»www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/biztech/11···adio.ap/

said by Mel says in various interviews :
If the deal is approved, the companies have said they would offer pricing plans ranging from $6.99 per month, for 50 channels offered by one service, up to $16.99 a month, where subscribers would keep their existing service plus choose channels offered by the other service. It isn't possible now to pick channels one by one.
A la carte would be sweet and for those looking for mainly music channels, pricing would be cut to nearly 1/2 the price it is now.

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said by Mattinee See Profile :

i picture: basic package around $9.95 (cheaper thean monthly service now) and extras like stern around $9.95, MLB $14.95, etc...

sucks, i know....
It would be GREAT !!!

"basic package around $9.95 "
Sign me up !
No MLB or Stern as a Bonus !
Sounds like a Great package.
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Mattinee

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Re: Stern on Both!

haha

i guess you are right...
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said by Mattinee See Profile :

i picture: basic package around $9.95 (cheaper thean monthly service now) and extras like stern around $9.95, MLB $14.95, etc...

sucks, i know....
$9.95/mo was what XM charged for the longest time. Until they upped it to $13 (or whatever it is today) to subsidize online streaming and O&A.
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Re: Stern on Both!

said by ke4pym See Profile$9.95/mo was what XM charged for the longest time. Until they upped it to $13 (or whatever it is today) to subsidize online streaming and O&A.
[/BQUOTE :


As someone who was with XM since 2003, that's not correct. XM Went to $13 when they dumped the commercials on the music channels - they used to play a few here and there. Then they dumped the commercials and upped the rate. We did get online streaming, but I'd bet few use it.

I still hope this merger doesn't get approved. If so, it's a sad day for XM as we have the best technology, best music (I've had Sirius in numerous rentals and it's way too much like FM with DJ's drivel and such), and brightest standalone financial outlook.

I'll probably stick around after the merger and see what the deals are. Best case, the new Slacker stuff is looking very good. Worst case is I save ~$20/mo (2 radios).

djrobx

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If they merge, I'm very curious as to what will happen to Sirius lifetime subs.

n2jtx

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License Agreement

I am still curious as to how they manage to ignore the agreement they made when they got their FCC licenses that neither one would acquire the other. I guess such agreements are worth about as much as any other agreements they will make in the future. BOHICA.
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Re: License Agreement

Companies ignore agreements all the time. Government changes its mind like it changes its socks.

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said by n2jtx See Profile :

I am still curious as to how they manage to ignore the agreement they made when they got their FCC licenses that neither one would acquire the other. I guess such agreements are worth about as much as any other agreements they will make in the future. BOHICA.
They made the agreement with the FCC. And the FCC can decide to let them out of that agreement. The FCC did NOT make the agreement with the American people - only with the 2 companies involved.
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said by n2jtx See Profile :

I am still curious as to how they manage to ignore the agreement they made when they got their FCC licenses that neither one would acquire the other. I guess such agreements are worth about as much as any other agreements they will make in the future. BOHICA.
They didn't ignore anything. Part of the merger process was the application to the FCC to approve the merger because of the existing license restrictions.

calvoiper

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The real shame is that even if one of these companies went bankrupt, then their spectrum would be available for a new competitor. If they merge, you can bet they won't be freeing up any spectrum.

calvoiper
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1 edit

The merged company will suck, and I will miss XM

Regardless of what they call the merged company, you can be sure Karmazen will ruin it, just like he ruined terrestrial radio.

I like XM the way it is. I like that on the decades channels I'm not always hearing a top 40 tune. I did not like what I heard when I tried the free trial of Sirius on line.

The big wigs will tell you that the merger is needed for both companies to survive, that it will bring more choice to the consumer, programming won't change, and prices will go down. I say bull.

1: The only way tiered programming will be implemented is with new radios. Current technology does not support a la cart or tiered servicing. You might be able to get the $6.95 tier Mel's promising with a new radio. That new radio will be more expensive due to a lack of competition AND, you can bet Karmazen will pack that entry level tier FULL of advertising.

2: The "synergies" the executives at these companies talk about are YEARS away at best, non existent at the worst. Both companies have committed to keep 2 constellations of satellites in orbit for at least the next 10 years. That means little or no cost savings on that end of the infrastructure.

3: Proponents of the merger argue that the cost of content will go down since the merged company will have to pay less. Guess what, both companies are paying content providers (including folks like the recording industry, MLB, NHL, NFL, and Nascar) based on the number of people listening. You can bet the farm that if the merged company tries to cross platform content (eg, put MLB on Sirius) they're going to either void that contract, or force it into re negotiation for more money. When it comes to content in broadcasting THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH PEOPLE. No cost savings here..

The only people who win with a merged company are the stockholders and the suits.

I have no sympathy for the stock holders. Should have bagged out of this one long ago. By all rights, both of these companies should be left to go into bankruptcy separately, and then be acquired by folks with at least a shred of business acumen. It's clear the folks running both companies don't know how to read a damn balance sheet and figure out that if you keep spending money hand over fist, you're never going to turn a profit.

The suits, well they're doing what they do best. Just another example of the Gordon Gekko shuffle. Make a killing on the acquisition and merger, stick around a month or two, and then blow the whole thing out with a big sack of Benjamins.

Feel free to disagree with me, but 1 or 2 years from now when the merged company, whatever they call it, is charging the consumer more for service and equipment, and offering less by way of innovation and programming, I'll link to my post and say "see I told you so".

Oh, in case you didn't notice, I think the whole idea of the merger sucks

edit for typo
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See 13 replies to this post

jferello
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Monopoly?

I thought monopolies were illegal, how could they possibly merge?

ztmike
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Re: Monopoly?

said by jferello See Profile :

I thought monopolies were illegal, how could they possibly merge?
Obviously you never heard of this company i call, "Comcast"
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texans20
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Re: Monopoly?

said by ztmike See Profile :

said by jferello See Profile :

I thought monopolies were illegal, how could they possibly merge?
Obviously you never heard of this company i call, "Comcast"
Must of also been asleep when SBC purchased AT&T and a few other regional bells.
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Re: Monopoly?

or bell atlantic buying NYNEX, GTE and other bells systems. Texans20, these guys on this board are still wet behind the ears. Karminzin did not destroy terrestial radio either like some other idiot posted, he built it up from nothing (Infinity broadcasting)
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Re: Monopoly?

Man you must have a brain , every one thinks this guy destroyed radio , when the truth is without him radio would have died a quicker death. They didn't know how to sell a product , hence they got really good deals from the riaa to stay afloat. He changed it , and kept it alive.

That is why he is at sirius now to keep sat rad alive.
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Why pay when HD radio is "free"?

I can't get into the ideal of paying for broadcast radio.

IMO, what they should do is offer a "free" version of Sat. radio. The free version would have only a few channels, and they would have advertisments on them. That way the ads would help offsite the cost of the "free" version.

Plus it would draw more people to sample sat. radio and maybe upgrade to the paid version.
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See 16 replies to this post
flyingjoey

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open your mind.

Well, if you have a problem with either of the 2 companies you have the choice of going to terrestrial radio.

I am for the marger... I want my baseball and I want my freaken football and needless to say I want my howard stern.

I don't care if the prices go up by a couple of dollars, you get what you pay for. Everyone pays for cable, and pays for commercials... it's the same $h1t.

MzrJoe

@verizon.net

Bring it On

I like the idea of a merger because I would like to get both the NFL and MLB. If i have to pay a little exrta, it would still be a good deal to me. Keep what I want under $20 for two-radio service and I'm there.

Joe
ebubman

join:2002-01-17
Enola, PA
·Comcast
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satellite addicts...

we've been on (((xm))) for 3 or so years. love the very precise selections/channels which play the music we like when we like. do not miss the screaming/railing djs & ads on terrestrial radio. merge or no, we're in. hope sirius does not screw up the xm-unique channels that made us choose (((xm))) in the 1st place. bub
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