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story category Still No Sign Of The Exaflood
Growth is strong, but far from unmanageable...
(old news - 05:26PM Tuesday Aug 05 2008)
tags: bandwidth · stats · networking
Broadband industry lobbyists and PR departments have ceaselessly predicted a bandwidth crunch that never seems to arrive, usually because they're trying to justify a new policy or rate hike, stave off regulation -- or in the case of hardware vendors, sell network management hardware. Buried beneath the roar of the "exaflood" chicken littles are more cautioned voices like that of University of Minnesota researcher Andrew Odlyzko, one of the nation's top experts on global Internet traffic. Odlyzko repeatedly notes that while growth is strong, it doesn't necessitate drastic new pricing model shifts (metered billing), or wailing to the heavens:
"Traffic growth is still quite fast, so in some sense you could say yes, we’re on the way to the exaflood or we’re already in it. The issue is: Is this a reason for panic or action or throwing money at service providers so they could build out new links, etc., and the answer is no, because this growth rate, 50% per year, can be accommodated with essentially the current level of capital investment. We see more of a slowdown than a speed-up."
Odlyzko estimates that average US monthly Internet traffic is between 900 and 1550 petabytes per month, up from 750 to 1250 petabytes at the end of 2007. Still, Odlyzko says there's no sign of the perpetually impending Internet collapse. "There is not a single sign of an unmanageable flood of traffic," Odlyzko says via his website, where all of his data is easily visible. "If anything, a slowdown is visible more than a speedup," he says. Odlyzko suggests that ISPs should stop fearing traffic growth and work on ways to stimulate it.

Related:
  1. Sandvine: 44% of Internet Traffic P2P
  2. Monday Evening Links
  3. Friday Morning Links
  4. Deconstructing The Exaflood Myth
  5. Backbone Analysis Puts Exaflood Myth To Bed
  6. Tuesday Evening Links
  7. Wednesday Evening Links
  8. Sandvine: P2P Now Just 20% Of Internet Use
Forums » Still No Sign Of The Exaflood
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Anonymous_
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how many mb is torrent?

how many mb is torrent?

tiger72
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Re: how many mb is torrent?

25

pspcrazy
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Re: how many mb is torrent?

LOL!

ssj4android
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I'd say most torrent files are less than 0.05 MB.

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1 edit

Slowdown

The slowdown in traffic is directly due to the slowdown in new subscribers. Which has prompted the ISPs to look for new revenue streams -- of which the whopper is metered billing.

Metered billing slows consumption while increasing the profitability of each customer and providing a new revenue stream for network upgrades.

So much for the old school cost of doing business!

mod_wastrel

join:2008-03-28

Re: Slowdown

I presume you mean slowdown in traffic growth?

Doesn't the article say that there is no slowdown in growth?

Matt
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Re: Slowdown

said by mod_wastrel See Profile :

I presume you mean slowdown in traffic growth?

Doesn't the article say that there is no slowdown in growth?
said by article :

"We see more of a slowdown than a speed-up."

mod_wastrel

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1 edit

Re: Slowdown

You left out the "If anything". You also left out the "...monthly Internet traffic is between 900 and 1550 petabytes per month, up from 750 to 1250 petabytes at the end of 2007".

If anything, I don't interpret that as a slowdown, especially since he said "growth is still quite fast".

Edit: His statistics are at odds with use of the term "slowdown". Given an acceptable, normal variance they simply show a steady growth, but not some "flood" or "explosion" as predicted by ISPs and their lobbyists--the same people who claim "massive congestion" all along their networks (yeah, right). It's just business as usual.

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said by Matt See Profile :

The slowdown in traffic is directly due to the slowdown in new subscribers. Which has prompted the ISPs to look for new revenue streams -- of which the whopper is metered billing.

Metered billing slows consumption while increasing the profitability of each customer and providing a new revenue stream for network upgrades.

So much for the old school cost of doing business!
Unfortunately, by using metered billing they may just yet be signing their own death warrants. Stagnation of the internet due to restrictive bandwidth policies may very well lead to less use of the internet, less e-commerce, less e-gaming, less e-video consumption, and eventually less users.

Alternatively, all it takes is a single competitor to come in and steal away their customers, and thanks to wireless technology advances, that competition can come in many forms. WiMax, Cellular 3G/4G, etc.. are looking better and better as future alternatives. T-Mobile could very well be my next HSI provider if local cable and phone companies continue down their path.
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major marco
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Re: Slowdown

said by tiger72 See Profile :

... by using metered billing they may just yet be signing their own death warrants. Stagnation of the internet due to restrictive bandwidth policies may very well lead to less use of the internet, less e-commerce, less e-gaming, less e-video consumption, and eventually less users.
Perhaps, but I don't see subscribers migrating en masse to wifi, consequently. What will most likely happen -considering the massive recession the U.S. economy seems directly on course for- those who can no longer afford BB will simply revert back to dial up, meanwhile, the remaining subscribers who get their BB from cable & telco providers will simply be squeezed that much more to make up the difference.

These providers know precisely what they're doing. A good analogy to this is renting a residence. Those who can't afford the excessive rent increases simply leave. Those who choose to stay behind are simply fucked up the ass that much harder squeezed harder.
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Re: Slowdown

said by major marco See Profile :

These providers know precisely what they're doing. A good analogy to this is renting a residence. Those who can't afford the excessive rent increases simply leave. Those who choose to stay behind are simply fucked up the ass that much harder squeezed harder.
Leave to go where? U-Verse? They have stated metered billing is coming. The reality is that most people have two choices, Cable or Telco ... and both will (except for possibly FiOS) move to metered billing. I don't think for one second FiOS will pass up that juicy profit once all the other companies switch however. They'll hang on for a while to pick up any stragglers and use it as a marketing ploy, then they'll fall in line.

Our infrastructure needs a complete overhaul to break the cooperative stranglehold on the last mile. Why do you think the local ILEC/MSOs sue the pants off any organization who even mentions "muni-broadband" ... then launches a FUD campaign?

They killed line sharing and are so greedy (even in Canada, see Bell Canada's latest tactic to nullify line sharing since they are still forced to) they'll use any excuse to kill off all competition so they control the last mile.

root9

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Re: Slowdown

In most part I agree. One little thing about humans ... we have the audacity to use necessity as a mother of invention.

No matter how much the Telcos try to control, PPL are starting to get wise and creating their own mini networks, which in turn are piped into fiber. Also Free AP's are everywhere and Telcos can't shut them down. Many are using satellite dishes to improve their signals as well. As repeaters are more prevalent it's easier to hide and privacy hits higher standards

A number of them are using any connections they can, including passive ground, main electrical grids, unused frequencies and many more. Mind yo many are experimental they do exist. Tesla would be proud

All that higher prices and control freaks are doing is forcing PPL to alternate ways and Telcos cutting their own throats. Therefore Telco's scare tactics will not win.
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insomniac84

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said by Matt See Profile :

Metered billing slows consumption while increasing the profitability of each customer and providing a new revenue stream for network upgrades.
Metered billing is an attempt to make internet connections as profitable as text messages. And the profit isn't for upgrades, it's for increased stock prices.
Lazlow

join:2006-08-07
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Stimulate it?

"Odlyzko suggests that ISPs should stop fearing traffic growth and work on ways to stimulate it."

Maybe I am missing the boat here, but why should the ISPs want to stimulate traffic growth? I understand (and agree with) his statement that they should not be afraid of growth(grow or die).
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Re: Stimulate it?

said by Lazlow See Profile :

"Odlyzko suggests that ISPs should stop fearing traffic growth and work on ways to stimulate it."

Maybe I am missing the boat here, but why should the ISPs want to stimulate traffic growth? I understand (and agree with) his statement that they should not be afraid of growth(grow or die).
The ISPs don't fear traffic growth, they're crying "BANDWIDTH APOCALYPSE!!" and spreading FUD to justify new ways to control and monetize the pipe you're paying for.

They are trying to get consumers, congress and regulators to believe there is a scarcity of bandwidth and they just can't handle the traffic (especially "bandwidth hogs") without some "network management" or caps and throttling.

there continues to be no publicly available data (that I have seen) that indicates there are major network congestion problems.

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1 edit

Re: Stimulate it?

said by nasadude See Profile :

there continues to be no publicly available data (that I have seen) that indicates there are major network congestion problems.
Here in Canada, Bell was recently required to prove network congestion was the reason that they started throttling p2p protocols by 95% during peak times. Not only did the numbers show there was no congestion, they actually showed a surplus of bandwidth. I'm actually surprised they released those numbers, as it completely killed their argument and credibility; but I guess they figured the folks on the CRTC wouldn't know any better. I'd bet that the status of other large DSL provider networks would be similar.
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said by Lazlow See Profile :

but why should the ISPs want to stimulate traffic growth?
Why do you have a broadband connection and others have only dialup? Because you value high speed Internet access. It enables you do do things you cannot do on dialup.

ISPs ought to encourage use for two reasons. Competitive advantage and the more a customer uses the Internet the more willing they are to pay for higher speed.

ISPs are in the business of delivering the bits. It seem strange they are trying to vilify their most demanding customers that are using the Internet in creative new ways creating demand for ever higher speed connection.

/tom

DOStradamus
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Look at who runs "those ISPs" ...

The predominant profession of those in our government's legislatures are lawyers, and, as a result, we have too many/too complex laws that we have to live under. A situation only a lawyer could tolerate, if not actually like.

The ISPs that do. or want to, implement bandwidth "caps" and by-the-byte billing, are run by BEAN COUNTERS. As a result, those companies' efforts to increase their profits are not concerned with innovation or improving the quality of their products, to attract new business, they BEAN-COUNT!. This typically involves the creation of new "line items" that they can bill for, outsourcing tech support to low-paid idiots, and iterations of "cut a corner and run the numbers".

The act of using an ISP that's run by bean-counters, rather than (computing) industry professionals the same kind of poor choice as hiring a dog proctologist to remove a the brain tumor that caused you to make your poor choice of ISP.

-NK

Dogfather
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That's the whole point

ISPs aren't afraid of traffic. They're afraid of video competition.

espaeth
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Re: That's the whole point

said by Dogfather See Profile :

ISPs aren't afraid of traffic. They're afraid of video competition.
Only if they don't have someone on staff with basic algebra skills to show why they don't need to be worried about it anytime soon.
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Re: That's the whole point

said by espaeth See Profile :

said by Dogfather See Profile :

ISPs aren't afraid of traffic. They're afraid of video competition.
Only if they don't have someone on staff with basic algebra skills to show why they don't need to be worried about it anytime soon.
Since for many people content is more important than HD quality, services like Hulu, which can easily be accomodated by most existing broadband connections, are posing a threat right now. It's not necessary for the perfect substitute to come along for them to lose a large number of potential subscribers.

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Re: That's the whole point

said by andre2 See Profile :

Since for many people content is more important than HD quality, services like Hulu, which can easily be accomodated by most existing broadband connections, are posing a threat right now.
The numbers don't really support that.

In May, Hulu served 80 million video streams and 411 million total minutes of video, according to Nielsen's VideoCensus, meaning each stream was 5.1 minutes in length, time in most cases for just one ad exposure. And according to ComScore, Hulu users spent an average of 6.6 minutes on the site per visit in May.
Source: »www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/hulu···business

Certainly there are some people watching large quantities of content on Hulu, but the vast majority are not. I think if you did a serious poll you'd also find the average Hulu viewer uses the service to augment their existing TV service, not replace it.
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Re: That's the whole point

said by espaeth See Profile :

Certainly there are some people watching large quantities of content on Hulu, but the vast majority are not. I think if you did a serious poll you'd also find the average Hulu viewer uses the service to augment their existing TV service, not replace it.
You'd have to include not only Hulu, but Abc.com, Cbs.com, etc. And then there's unauthorized sources such as Youtube, bittorrent, etc. (which are probably largely responsible for the fact that legal sources exist at all).

I'm sure you're right about augmenting as opposed to replacing existing TV service, but in the present economic downturn, that can mean a lot of people who decide to use their existing flat-rate broadband more, as opposed to subscribing to an extra service.

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1 edit
We're not talking about replacing "TV". These online vendors taking MSO VOD PPV revenues is enough to scare the MSOs into this defensive posture.

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3 edits
said by espaeth See Profile :

said by Dogfather See Profile :

ISPs aren't afraid of traffic. They're afraid of video competition.
Only if they don't have someone on staff with basic algebra skills to show why they don't need to be worried about it anytime soon.
Sure, you go on believing the myth that Apple alone selling or renting 1,500,000 movies and shows a month isn't cutting into MSO VOD PPV revenue. The MSOs certainly aren't that stupid.

Add to that Unbox, Microsoft, Netflix, Hulu and the rest; the MSOs see the writing on the wall and they're certainly afraid of this new competition.

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Re: That's the whole point

said by Dogfather See Profile :

Sure, you go on believing the myth that Apple alone selling or renting 1,500,000 movies and shows a month isn't cutting into MSO VOD PPV revenue. The MSOs certainly aren't that stupid.
Comcast claims 250 million VOD views each month (Source: »www.multichannel.com/article/CA6509888.html ), so even if every single one of those views came from a Comcast subscriber you're only talking about 0.6% encroachment.

Of course, there's other people in the game (DirecTV, Dish, ATT, Cablevision, etc etc) so the numbers dilute down even further.

Dogfather
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Re: That's the whole point

But those numbers come from FREE VOD programming.

How many of that 250 million are Pay Per View rentals?

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Re: That's the whole point

Those numbers include both free and pay content delivered via VOD.

You're missing the point though. Internet video delivery in its current form is so inefficient it has inherent limits preventing it from scaling to anything threatening in the foreseeable term.

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4 edits

Re: That's the whole point


Growth is gone
said by espaeth See Profile :

Those numbers include both free and pay content delivered via VOD.

You're missing the point though. Internet video delivery in its current form is so inefficient it has inherent limits preventing it from scaling to anything threatening in the foreseeable term.
That is pure conjecture. 3rd party video is infinitely scalable so long as MSOs and telcos don't interfere. The only thing stopping 3rd party video scalability is ISP capping.

And 3rd party video is obviously having an impact on Comcast VOD growth and major Comcast VOD growth comes from free content (meaning no additional revenue for the MSO). We seen from Comcast's own data that growth has come to a grinding halt.
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Re: That's the whole point

said by Dogfather See Profile :

That is pure conjecture. 3rd party video is infinitely scalable so long as MSOs and telcos don't interfere. The only thing stopping 3rd party video scalability is ISP capping.
Are you kidding me? That's like saying courier services could take over for the USPS, delivering each letter individually with no issues of scale. (they can keep getting more drivers and cars, right?) Can you really not see the obvious scaling issues in having bandwidth utilization increase linearly with every view of identical content? ISP bandwidth restrictions is an issue, not the issue.

said by Dogfather See Profile :

And 3rd party video is obviously having an impact on Comcast VOD growth. We seen from Comcast's own data that growth has come to a grinding halt.
Look at that graph closely again -- viewing numbers decline every year leading into December, largely because network programming starts coming back with new shows so there's more compelling regular content to view.

You have to keep in mind that with VoD you're also fighting the human element. Internet-based VoIP providers are significantly cheaper than MSO options, and yet MSOs continue to subscribe people in record numbers. Why? The MSO takes care of all of the setup work and they provide real technical support both via phone and people who will come out to your house. (Arguments about quality of that support notwithstanding) The overwhelming majority of the people in this country are not technology evangelists.

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2 edits

Re: That's the whole point

You're missing my point. You talk about couriers "taking over" for USPS but you actually think for a second that United Parcel Service and Fedex haven't taken business from the Postal Service? No one here is saying that iTunes will completely replace MSO VOD, only that it's a huge threat to MSO PPV revenue just as UPS and Fedex are a huge threat to USPS revenues.

In terms of scalability, remember, Apple and Microsoft don't offer free content. All of their content is revenue generating so while the more VOD content Comcast sees used, the more money it costs them, the opposite is true for Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. The more views they have the more revenue they make. That is why they are easily scalable; every view pays for itself with plenty of margin.

MSOs are working, via caps, to insure the "couriers" of today; iTunes, Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix, etc, don't become the UPS and Fedex of tomorrow.

See 7 replies to this post
averagedude

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1 edit
ISPs aren't afraid of traffic. They're afraid of video competition.
2nd

Jovi

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Afraid of video competition and another way to milk a buck.
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ninjatutle
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It's coming

Like the great locust swarms in Africa, it can hit any day. All it takes is a great catalyst to trigger.

Look at what happens when earthquakes hit, people jam the phone lines and the systems are unable to handle every call. Woot.com is slow to crawl on woot off's. Highways are brought to a snails pace by people slowing down to view accidents on the side of the roads.

Skynet is coming...

Xizer

join:2004-02-05
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Manufactured famine.

This is a manufactured famine designed by ISPs to squeeze more money out of their customers and provide them with less value for that money.

Nothing more needs to be said, really. That says it all.

DSLTech

join:2000-12-30
San Jose, CA

Funny mail from DTV today

Yes, I've tried the DTV on-Demand beta and well, its a bit clumsy. However, today is the first time I've recieved an official email from DTV saying DTV on-demand has arrived.

Well folks, expect this to add to the network capacity demands.

I work for an ISP and in the capacity management group and yes, running out of bandwidth is for real so don't go around saying it is being used to "cry wolf" or gain some other goal.

The reason why the growth was seen as "unmanageable" as scoffed at in the article, was because growth WAS growing at a rate that was predicted to be unmanageable at the time. However, the rate of growth has subsided as the novelty of internet video has died down.

On the other hand, once content companies start to "push" videos to consumers over the same hardware(TV) that consumers are used to seeing it on, its quite possible the problem will once again surface.

Hopefully they will be doing some throttling on their side so as to limit the damage to all involved.

As an ISP, we could always choose to blackhole their AS number or IP blocks while holding their content ransom.

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Re: Funny mail from DTV today

said by DSLTech See Profile :

As an ISP, we could always choose to blackhole their AS number or IP blocks while holding their content ransom.
Good idea. That should really piss off your customers and help efforts to bring net neutrality into law.

Become a case study! Help the cause!
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Packerman

join:2004-04-15

Stop giving speed bursts

Dont understand why companies continue to upgrade speed tiers if they cant provide the speed to all users at max.

Its the same thing cable companies do. When they run tests for speed in certain cities they actually are hoping that the nodes dont get slammed by someone doing more than just email.

I personally dont believe that any of the companies are hurting by "power users" I believe that caps are a way to prevent users from using other video and communication services other than the ones being promoted by the isp service.
Joe12345678

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Just wait for the caps to start

talk and some have low caps is stage 1.

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Headline and words at odds in this story

Headline:
Still No Sign Of The Exaflood

Actual quote by the expert:
"Traffic growth is still quite fast, so in some sense you could say yes, we’re on the way to the exaflood or we’re already in it.

Also past activity is not a prediction. All data plots look the same - until the trend hits a knee in the curve. Just because the plot is now linear doesn't mean it will stay that way. The PREDICTED growth in delivered video could throw the curve vertical very soon. The good professors analysis of past events doesn't deal with the future.
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Millenniumle

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Re: Headline and words at odds in this story

Oddly, though, ISP's already distribute their own video content over the pipes and this doesn't seem to concern them or produce any adverse affects. It's only internet hoggish, network choking naughtiness when it's a competitors video content bein' desired.

I really only see two things; gouging out competition and just plain gouging. They want to hand out non-proprietary content bandwidth with a dropper instead of a glass and charge like its gallons.

mrchris
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GREED

They're just being too lazy to increase network infastructure, those greedy bastards!
andre2

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Re: Headline and words at odds in this story

said by GOLFnSUN See Profile :

Headline:
Still No Sign Of The Exaflood

Actual quote by the expert:
"Traffic growth is still quite fast, so in some sense you could say yes, we’re on the way to the exaflood or we’re already in it.

Also past activity is not a prediction. All data plots look the same - until the trend hits a knee in the curve. Just because the plot is now linear doesn't mean it will stay that way. The PREDICTED growth in delivered video could throw the curve vertical very soon. The good professors analysis of past events doesn't deal with the future.
Demand for video (or pretty much any other internet application) is highly elastic. If the capacity doesn't currently exist for everyone to watch real-time HD video, then most people will settle for lower-res (or the ones who really need the high-def fix will let it buffer first) for the time being. For this reason predictions of the tubes clogging are highly unlikely.

GlobalMind
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Here comes the flood?

I don't think there's any question that data traffic over the Internet will continue to increase in the course of years.

Yes it will be a large amount of data. There are more & more business transactions which use the Internet instead of dedicated circuits, and of course consumer services like movie rentals which consume bandwidth.

What I do think is pretty funny is that the various ISPs & backbone providers like to make the case for an end of days scenario on bandwidth.

There is no such thing as a limit to Internet bandwidth because it is not a natural resource. We (as humans) make the decsions & spend the money which creates the bandwidth.

Metered access will further place an Internet connection into the realm of a utility. Many of the ISPs have gone to great pains to avoid that for Internet access, but I'd make the case that if you are metering access then that's what it is...utility service. Just like my water & power.

Of course your bill might be less one month when I'm out on vacation for a couple weeks and higher another month when I am here every day.

What I don't think is viable is metered access with also a bandwidth cap. If I am paying based on what I use then I should be able to use what I want so long as I pay for it.

Before anyone thinks that is the same "I pay $45 a month I have the right to do what I want" argument - I'd say it isn't really the same thing. Think about it.

Florida Power & Light doesn't cap me at so many KWH a month because I pay for what I use. Same with water. If they want to do that for bandwidth then I think caps should be off the table.
--
TheGlobalMind.com | Speed costs money. How fast do you want to go? | Trust the instinct to the end, though you can render no reason. Ralph Waldo Emerson

gsogeek

join:2006-01-27
Greensboro, NC
·Time Warner Cable

Re: Here comes the flood?

Not a bad idea, but then, where I live, utilities are regulated industries, with fairly heavy government involvement. The last time Duke Power wanted a rate increase, it took them almost 3 months to make the change. Since what you recommend is that they are treated like a utility, I wouldn't have any problems, as long as they are treated like a utility in all respects. Whenever TIme-Warner want's to up my bill, they can go before the Utilities commission, make their case, and then pray they don't get turned down. They can also be forced to build out additional bandwidth, meet service level minimums, and deal with all that headache, not to mention loss of their common carrier status. Sounds good to me, government forced net-neutrality.

chronoss2008
Premium
join:2008-03-29
·TekSavvy Solutions..
·Bell Sympatico

bell canada

and on saturday wheneveryone wakes up and begins there downloads where was the so called network crunch....
HAHA no where.
Notta.
And you have to love the fact that the data that was presented showed that when bell for example put all that firewall garbage hardcore on the network had more issues then it did previously.

Bell should not be sold the way it is instead be broken up into parts with sympatico being disbanded, and allowed to be bought up by CAIP members.
Which i might add might even save money as they won't have to pay that 20$ fee er tax on the back end.....

And how healthy is bell?
last year it profited 667 million.
this year 330 or so million, moslty on massively agressive mobile phone signups.
GEE wonder where 337 million in cash went....

Teksavvy must be really racking it in....
Even videotron made more cash i would gather from a bleed of quebec internet customers.
Forums » Still No Sign Of The Exaflood


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