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story category AT&T Realizing 25Mbps Not Enough
Lightspeed Delays, Overhaul Ahead?
(old news - 07:05PM Monday Apr 24 2006)
tags: dsl · Fiber · competition · business · bandwidth · telco · networking
The criticism of AT&T's "Project Lightspeed" network & IPTV upgrade has been that their current VDSL model provides only 25Mbps to the home, with the company allotting only 6Mbps of that to broadband. AT&T has previously stated they'll explore fiber to the home where it makes sense (read: developments), but that they also wouldn't rule out a more Verizon-Fios style rollout (fiber the last mile) if they could keep costs down.

Analysts are now predicting that AT&T will scale-back Project Lightspeed over the next 2-3 years while they figure out how to get more bandwidth to the end-user. "We believe AT&T will switch gears from VDSL2 around 25 megabits per second to something faster, possibly faster versions of VDSL2 running on shorter loops with potential for as much as 100 megabits per second," writes financial analyst Anton Wahlman.
"AT&T may blame this on any number of reasons, including slow upgrade cycle to VDSL2, Microsoft's unstable software, lack of working HDTV and probably the pending BellSouth merger," he claims. "Either way, we believe the fundamental reason is that AT&T is likely realizing that 25 megabits isn't going to do the trick, but rather that it needs to plan for 100 megabits or more to the home today, with a path to Gigabit Ethernet to every home in the next five to 10 years at the most."
In the interim, AT&T will continue to push DSL and satellite bundles, integrated via their Homezone service, which will launch this summer.

Related:
  1. AT&T Defends Bandwidth Plans (Again)
  2. FiOS Kills Copper (Or Does It?)
  3. Thursday Morning Links
  4. Thursday Evening Links
  5. Wednesday Evening Links
  6. Friday Evening Links
  7. Wednesday Evening Links
  8. What Network Neutrality Is REALLY About
Forums » AT&T Realizing 25Mbps Not Enough
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UofMiamiGrad
Premium
join:2001-02-03
Great Neck, NY

VZ made the correct move!

This only proves VZ made the correct strategic move with its FTTH deployment despite the naysayers and high price. AT&T will have wasted millions on the deployment of this failed project, oh well. Go VZ go
RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11
·AT&T Midwest

Re: VZ made the correct move!

Lightspeed pushes the fiber into the 'hood where copper takes over, but it's not a start-over proposition to replace that bit of copper with fiber later.

AT&T should have just bit the bullet and done FTTH/P from the get-go, but Ed's not as much of a deep thinker as Ivan I guess...

Personally, I think that Ed's plan was to boil the Wall Street frogs by slowly turning up the heat on their pot instead of throwing them into scalding water like Ivan did. A press release stating that they are pushing the FTTP installs into established neighborhoods would kick it up a notch.

However, where in this article does it say AT&T is having second thoughts? All I see are some questionable stock speculation by a third-tier pundit.
--
Toolmaster of La Grange.
attsbcisgay

join:2003-03-18
Beverly Hills, CA

Re: VZ made the correct move!

This is getting silly. I'll be happy with 8/1 if they can deliver that to most of the dsl users! but they cant
they're whining... bitching about a technology that's not even practical or make economic sense.

footballdude
Premium
join:2002-08-13
Imperial, MO

said by RadioDoc See Profile :

However, where in this article does it say AT&T is having second thoughts? All I see are some questionable stock speculation by a third-tier pundit.
That's exactly what I thought. Since when does a guess from an industry analyst have any effect?
--
If Darwin was right and evolution really works, why are there so many stupid people out there?
fiberguy
My views are my own.
Premium
join:2005-05-20

You also have to remember, while VZ put out Fiber, it's NOT a LARGE deploymnet as it's made out to be.

Rolling it out in many cities? Yes... large scale? Hardly. But you are right about choosing fiber over this project slow speed or Prompt-NO that SBC wanted to do for almost a decade now.
moonpuppy

join:2000-08-21
Glen Burnie, MD
·Verizon Online DSL

Re: VZ made the correct move!

said by fiberguy See Profile :

You also have to remember, while VZ put out Fiber, it's NOT a LARGE deploymnet as it's made out to be.

Rolling it out in many cities? Yes... large scale? Hardly. But you are right about choosing fiber over this project slow speed or Prompt-NO that SBC wanted to do for almost a decade now.
HUH?!?!!?

My guess is Verizon is building new deployments (because it is easier to start from scratch) and replacing infrastructures that are no longer viable to maintain cheaply. Since they are going to be replaced eventually, why not do the oldest or those in the worst shape first.
fiberguy
My views are my own.
Premium
join:2005-05-20

Re: VZ made the correct move!

Umm....

I can't speak for Verizon and their roll out plans. I haven't seen any large scale and long term plans. In fact, I beleive they are slowing them down. HOWEVER, it makes their over all roll outs look better, to the overall public, much larger when you roll out (say) 20 small roll outs in several cities and states vs one large deployment in a single city. So, it "appears" that they deployment of Fios by Verizon is HUGE!

C'mon... "Verizon wires 20 cities", though just a small portion, sounds so much better than "Verizon launches Fios in Baltimore MD" (for example...)
moonpuppy

join:2000-08-21
Glen Burnie, MD

Re: VZ made the correct move!

In a previous post of yours, you insinuated that whatever sounds good to the investors is o.k.

Verizon is playing the same game Comcast, ATT or TW does.
fiberguy
My views are my own.
Premium
join:2005-05-20

Re: VZ made the correct move!

Um.. doubt that. Unless you took it wrong, I could pretty much care less about investors for the most part.

Further, you should quote what you are talking about.. otherwise, it's just a party in your head and the rest of us are not invited.

(Insinuations don't rank high as they are right up there with assumptions and unlike many, I do NOT care if it's phone or cable.. a rat is still a rat. If you want to get into trends, you should look deeper into mine)
moonpuppy

join:2000-08-21
Glen Burnie, MD
·Verizon Online DSL

Re: VZ made the correct move!

said by fiberguy See Profile :

Um.. doubt that. Unless you took it wrong, I could pretty much care less about investors for the most part.
But Brian Roberts loves investors enough to say he isn't worried about FIOS. Behind the curtain, Comcast is VERY worried.

said by fiberguy See Profile :

Further, you should quote what you are talking about.. otherwise, it's just a party in your head and the rest of us are not invited.

(Insinuations don't rank high as they are right up there with assumptions and unlike many, I do NOT care if it's phone or cable.. a rat is still a rat. If you want to get into trends, you should look deeper into mine)
Ahh, but you do care since it is your job and you do spend countless posts defending cable and bashing the telcos. Cable does well, you keep your job. Competition means higher costs for both parties involved.

A rat is still a rat huh? Just like Comcast only doing 16Mbit upgrades for those in FIOS areas only so far.
ITALIAN926

join:2003-08-16
Stratford, CT


1 edit
What in the hell would you consider a large deployment? Do you know how many BILLIONS theyve already invested and plan on investing? Its a big country out there and it takes time to run a trillion miles of fiber optic cabling . People expect Verizon to flip a switch and half the country should be wired. Amazing. Obviously in oder to impress you, Verizon should hire a million additional people and spend 500billion dollars on it next quarter. haha

quote:
In fact, I beleive they are slowing them down.
Where do you get this shit, really.
RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11

1 edit

Re: VZ made the correct move!

Apparently New York City isn't big enough to count in his world.
--
Toolmaster of La Grange.
fiberguy
My views are my own.
Premium
join:2005-05-20
What? Do you NOT read this very site? Do your homework... there was a topic posted here that stated this very fact..
Sammer

join:2005-12-22
Canonsburg, PA

Re: VZ made the correct move!

Actually FiOS (BPON) can't currently come close to 100Mbs either if it's shared with 32 houses. GPON won't really be available to the huge telcos until next year.

ross96
VIP
join:2000-11-02
Dayton, OH
Since when does the "v" in vdsl stand for video?? great article....not.
GhostFreeman

join:2004-06-04
Rising Fawn, GA

AT&T will be forced to catch up

Unless they can get some serious lobbies in their favor, Verizon will make AT&T compete with FTTH.

oliphant
I Have 8 Boobies
Premium
join:2004-11-26
Corona, CA

Re: AT&T will be forced to catch up

Why? They don't serve the same markets.
hottboiinnc
ME

join:2003-10-15
Cleveland, OH

Re: AT&T will be forced to catch up

They do in some markets where the old SBC Telecom is/was. SBC was a CLEC in some VZ areas, Ohio and in NC for starters.

reub2000
Premium
join:2001-12-28
Evanston, IL

said by oliphant See Profile :

Why? They don't serve the same markets.
Their installing totally new wires for this. I don't see why it would be any different to put fiber in a place that doesn't have vz service than one that does have vz copper.

Raptor
Not a Dumptruck

join:2001-10-21
London, ON
·Rogers Hi-Speed
·Bell Sympatico

Fuel the Competition

At least it's also good to see AT&T might be realizing this now, rather than continuing to press-on in ignorance playing the same old song. Hopefully, they'll try to match or beat which will just continue to fuel competition.

But kudos for Verizon for taking the plunge initially. From my perspective, if offered the same plan from either co., just knowing as an informed consumer (thanks BBR..) that VZ initiated all of this, I'd choose them. Too bad I'm north of the border Fios-less
--
....where's my fiber?

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
·RoadRunner Cable
·DSL EXTREME

Re: Fuel the Competition

Here's where your fiber is...

»www.bigpipeinc.com/pdf/network_m···rnet.pdf

Fortunately small towns in Northern Ontario (White River) are have access to that feed

»www.bigpipeinc.com/pdf/network_m···bone.pdf

It also stops in London, but there's no Shaw cable there.

insomniac84

join:2002-01-03
Schererville, IN

out of ideas?

"We believe AT&T will switch gears from VDSL2 around 25 megabits per second to something faster, possibly faster versions of VDSL2 running on shorter loops with potential for as much as 100 megabits per second"
That quote sounds like they are just speculating about potential technologies that have yet to be invented.
Odie97

join:2006-04-19
Oak Creek, WI

Re: out of ideas? ... STILL?

It is baffling to me as to why at&t continues to refuse to take any real steps to re-invent itself while it virtually has all the marbles in their hands. I guess their blood is so thick (and slow) with the notion that they can bully and push for keeping the status quo is their plan after all.

They need a real heart attach ... and then quadruple by-pass and maybe then they might start to make some smart moves. OR maybe Mr. W. (CEO) will win with his "we'll just buy everyone out and force feed the market our spoiled soup"

Better yet ... maybe those cowboys in Texas all need to take a trip to Brokeback Mountain for some new kinda lovin to get them to sit up straight.

Fatal Vector

join:2005-11-26

I told you


It's the old Ma Bell way of thinking that they never shook off. They have been getting away with it for so long now it has become ingrained in the corporate mentality and has been for years.

Make no mistake: If at&t can put Ma Bell back together, they will, while stomping any competitor they can. The only TRUE way to stop Ma Bell is to allow verizon to offer service in the at&t area and vice versa. Something they are prevented from doing now. Allthough, even that could and probably would result in Ma Bell becoming whole again.
biochemistry

join:2003-05-09
92361

Re: out of ideas? ... STILL?

"They need a real heart attach"

Nice misspelling. It's true. AT&T does need to attach a heart to their body and just go the Verizon route for fiber.

dadkins
Can you do Blu?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA
·Comcast

Yawn!

" only 25Mbps to the home, with the company allotting only 6Mbps of that to broadband."

So, if/when they figure out 100mbps?... is it still going to be 6mbps for internet?

What is upstream going to be? 512kbps?
--
Think outside the Fox... Opera
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Here

Re: Yawn!

it's 512 right now. The next gen will be several times higher.

BlahBlahBlahBlah

@shawcable.net

Re: Yawn!

LOL! And it's "just around the corner". Sounds familiar. When will you people ever learn. LOL!
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Here

Re: Yawn!

I don't expect you to know anything about what is going on. Here's a tip. The Alcatel 7300 DSLAM supports ADSL/ADSL2/ADSL2+. All BellSouth shipped modems support ADSL/ADSL2/ADSL2+... so what does that tell you?
attsbcisgay

join:2003-03-18
Beverly Hills, CA

Re: Yawn!

DSL1 support 8mbps but nobody gets that still... line condition is variable from person to person. We need fiber or a new wireless technology that can deliver much more then copper line can support!
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Here

Re: Yawn!

It's not a line condition. It's overhead. Cable has the same thing to a slightly lesser degree which is why they overcap.
nonymous

join:2003-09-08
Glendale, AZ

said by dadkins See Profile :

" only 25Mbps to the home, with the company allotting only 6Mbps of that to broadband."

So, if/when they figure out 100mbps?... is it still going to be 6mbps for internet?

What is upstream going to be? 512kbps?
25mps would run just one hdtv channel. There would be some left over but not a whole lot.
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Here

Re: Yawn!

HDTV will take 10mb/s per streaming channel.

phoneboy2

@shawcable.net

No suprise here!

Just goes to prove my stance that all the huffing and puffing from the Telcos about VDSL2 (Whatever happened to ADSL2, ADSL2+, and VDSL????) was nothing but marketecture BS to make people think they were still competitive.

Technically, it was always obvious that this was nothing but an expensive dead end.

GOLFnSUN
Enjoy the sun
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Avalon, NJ
·Sprint Mobile Broa..
·Comcast

Duh!! Every analyst has been saying this for months

I guess after reading analysis after analysis saying that with HDTV and multiple STBs in a home and broadband as well that 25 Mbps wasn't going to cut it, AT&T finally agreed. Now they will have to tread water while they come up with a new plan and new capital to get TV to the home.
--
--
Join Red Room Forum
BLOG tkjunkmail.blogspot.com
My Web Page

GlenQuagmire
Giggidy Giggidy Giggidy Goo
Premium
join:2004-02-16
Grand Rapids, MI


1 edit

Re: Duh!! Every analyst has been saying this for months

If AT&T doesn't take a serious look at FTTP Comcast is going to destroy them. Right now Comcast is offering 8 meg service with 16 in the works even with project lightspeed they were only going to offer 6 megs . POTS if over 100 years old you can't expect that one copper pair is really going to offer the next generation of services. The only way AT&T is going to compete with cable companies is if they do FTTP, anything else is just wasting stock holder money.
pabster

join:2001-12-09
Waterloo, IA

Re: Duh!! Every analyst has been saying this for months

In other news, the sky is blue...

If AT&T thought at any point that 25Mbps was "sufficient" to deliver next-generation services, they are doomed.
RadioDoc
58ef2c0
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11
I think you meant "doesn't take a serious look".
--
Toolmaster of La Grange.
markopoleo

join:2003-04-02
Bonne Terre, MO

The problem is not speed, its deployment procedures.

If they want to deploy it to new construction thats fine, but the problem is getting people to know this.

I build developments, getting At&t to work with you is harder than getting the city to work with you.

spg
Grrrr

join:2001-10-31
NOT Texas!

Re: The problem is not speed, its deployment procedures.

The threshold for new developments is at about 50 houses. But of course the serving Central Office has to be capable.

"Lightspeed" is a hybrid of both fiber to the prem and fiber to the node. We're installing both in California now, and have some fiber to the prem neighborhoods up and running already. Is it living up to potential right now? Nope. But remember, in these neighborhoods the fiber is placed. the electronics end of it, the software can both be upgraded.

Fiber to the node is still getting started, and AT&T (that is the correct way to spell it in text, BTW) is still hiring people into union jobs to deploy it. I'm betting that although bumpy, the project is underway.
markopoleo

join:2003-04-02
Bonne Terre, MO

Re: The problem is not speed, its deployment procedures.

UNION jobs to deploy it? That explains why the slow start, not working as planned. hehe

spg
Grrrr

join:2001-10-31
NOT Texas!


1 edit

Re: The problem is not speed, its deployment procedures.

Once again the troll knows not of what he speaks. The union jobs are in deploying, not engineering. They can't control the schedule, because they're not management. The union jobs don't determine how much to spend, either. But, lets not let facts get in the way of a flaming.

The whole point of pointing out that they were union jobs is that they'd better be serious about deployment with all of the associated costs involved. They can't just toss them out on the streets after they've used them up or broken their bodies.
jtorre69

join:2005-12-26
Hollywood, FL

1 edit
blaming unions for this is pretty ignorant. I don't see the connection.
If this is the reason behind at&t's decision to not deploy fiber, how is it that verizon (a unionized company) is able to to????????????

Part of the Problem

@pacbell.net

Re: The problem is not speed, its deployment procedures.

Here in central Cali the fiber to the prem (and fiber deployment in general) was held up for years due to California PUC rulings allowing competitors to step in and use up to 60% of the facilities at 40% cost.

Why would any company spend billions putting in a fiber networks so their competition can use it at 40% cost? Its bullshit over regulation and it causes more problems than it solves in my opinion. But now that is behind us for the most part. Now that we have swallowed AT&T piece by piece.

Starting about six or eight months ago all (yes ALL) new neighborhoods get fiber to the prem regardless if the developer whats it or not. So anything not already on the books was fiber to the prem after that ruling was over-turned.

And its 37mbs here in the central valley. That doesn't mean it can't be upgraded or run at higher speeds. Yes, they are only allotting 6mbs for DSL but I am sure that will change. But then again the average user doesn't care for anything over 1.5 down and 384 up.

At 37mbs they can have 2 HD channels, 6mb DSL, and four phone services with some left over. Not sure what name brand the SLAMs are but I know SBC (now at&t) has yet to finish signing deals with the major channels... not to mention everyone else.

And from a techs point of view its always baffling trying to figure out what or why a corporation does what it does when it does.

CO_Chris
Premium
join:2001-08-28
Broomfield, CO

1 edit

No one saw this coming?

WOW no 1 saw this coming? Only 6 megs don't they offer that on DSL now.WTF are they thinking? Take a play from FIOS Please SBC

djrobx

join:2000-05-31
Valencia, CA
·PHONE POWER
·AT&T U-Verse
·AT&T CallVantage
·Time Warner VOIP
·RoadRunner Cable

Re: No one saw this coming?

No offense to the likely very smart individuals that work at AT&T (especially the ones who post here), but what a stupid f*cking company. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that 25mbps is not enough for services that are a long way off deploying, when cable is doing multiple dual-tuner HD DVRs plus steadily increasing bandwidth caps to compete with what 'that other ILEC' is doing.

Maybe the CTO and CEO should post their brilliant ideas and let us tear it to shreads next time.
--
\\ROB - a part of the SCB local network

2gees

@verizon.net

I think you all could be missing a lil point. the at&t fttp service, as mentioned, will be capable of 25megs. now... it says only 6meg would be dedicated to internet, but i suspect that is only if you subscribe to the iptv. i could be wrong of course, but i have a strong feeling that if a customer purchased their fttp service and opted not to get the iptv, then at&t might consider selling the other 19megs for, say, another hundred bucks a month.
last time i checked, the vz service was $200/mo.
dd3mon

join:2003-08-21
Indianapolis, IN

Re: No one saw this coming?

VZ Fios is $35/mo for 5m/2m, $45/mo for 15m/2m, $180/mo for 30m/5m. Two markets have the 30/5 package for $60/mo due to local competition (likely cablevision?).

A friend of mine has the 15/2 package (pricing sweet spot) and it's absolutely spectacular, full speed available both ways.
JohnA
Premium
join:2003-09-16
Pittsburgh, PA

said by CO_Chris See Profile :

WOW no 1 saw this coming?
.......
WTF are they thinking?
What they were thinking was mergers.

They wouldn't dare have said FTTP to their shareholders before they get the BellSouth deal done. Look at all the flack Verizon is getting over what it's costing. By the time they're ready to tell the shareholders, this will be written up so many times that it shouldn't be a great shock to them.

removed
Crisis Management Squad
Premium,VIP
join:2002-02-08
Houston, TX
clubs:

said by CO_Chris See Profile :

WOW no 1 saw this coming? where is removed when you want him? Only 6 megs don't they offer that on DSL now.WTF are they thinking? Take a play from FIOS Please SBC
I'm right here, you studmuffin, you.

If you don't like it, don't sign up.
--
B | irc.removed.us - #dslr | Give me a ring: 718-606-4100
jimbo2150

join:2004-05-10
Youngstown, OH

Not Saying...

I'm not ganna say "I told you so."
lol

The only real problem this will cause now it that little "half-in-three-years" promise will now probably be more like 8 to 10 years.
--
- "Techie" Jim
zeddlar

join:2007-04-09
Jay, OK


1 edit

Verizon date

Verizon does have projected finish date they have released, I forget where I read it but I think it was 100% completion of ftth by 2010 if I remember correctly and that was in all of there markets.
--
HughesNet small buissness $99 package / AMC9,83west/990Mhz./.98 dish/2 watt radio/HN7000s modem/ 4 computers on a linksy's wired network


Bah this went to a new topic, guess I hit the wrong button, was suppose to go to VZ did something right as a reply.
Forums » AT&T Realizing 25Mbps Not Enough


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