Yesterday it was broadly reported that AT&T is already testing a new system of warning and scolding AT&T customers who have been transmitting pirated material. While the entertainment industry has been pushing ISPs to terminate the service of repeat offenders via some kind of "graduated response" (aka "three strikes) program, AT&T tells us that they're not yet ready to sign off on such an idea. As of right now, Cox Communications is the only ISP to have admitted to such a plan, something we discussed last August.

We will never suspend, terminate or sanction any customer without some sort of legal process, like a court order. -AT&T

Both AT&T and Comcast are making the rounds to media outlets after yesterday's story, insisting that they've yet to sign off on any three strikes plan. AT&T tells us this early test simply alerts users of a copyright claim against them. "This is a trial about customer education and deterrence," AT&T spokesman Seth Bloom tells me. "Therefore we are not suspending or terminating our customers’ service," he says.

Bloom stresses this is just one of several tests designed to see the impact of the warnings. AT&T executives have long argued that just notifying customers that they were breaking the law (at least based on RIAA/MPAA evidence) would be enough to deter users from using P2P. "In forwarding the notices, we do not make any accusation of wrongdoing, or assume illegal activity," AT&T says. Though we've yet to see a copy of the notices, some level of naughtiness must be inferred, lest the customers simply ignore the warning.

Bloom cites a recent study in the UK (we covered last year) that states 70% of users stop illegal downloading after first notification and 90% stop after the 2nd notification. He goes on to frame the test as a sort of community service. "Our experience has been that the majority of our customers stop the questionable behavior," says Bloom. "Some have even contacted us to thank us for the notifications because they were unaware of the illegal downloading." We're guessing he's referring to parents.

AT&T's chief policy guy Jim Cicconi took things a little bit farther in terms of damage control, by telling USAToday that any suggestion that there is a deal between AT&T and the RIAA "is just bogus." "We will never suspend, terminate or sanction any customer without some sort of legal process, like a court order," says Cicconi. "That's been our policy for years and that's not going to change."

Will AT&T stick to that promise? Broadband users have been receiving forwarded DMCA copyright violation warnings from ISPs for most of this decade. Those notices have done little to deter piracy, because users ultimately realized that they could be ignored. ISPs didn't act on the notices, and other than a few thousand RIAA lawsuits, most of the complaints weren't acted upon by copyright holders.

AT&T may be thinking that warnings, in conjunction with their planned piracy filters, may be enough to keep P2P use under control. AT&T and Comcast's hesitance on this front indicates they're sensitive to the public relations fallout of being linked to the RIAA. It also means they're aware of the multitude of problems with the RIAA's three strikes plan, including a lack of transparency, unreliable evidence, little recourse for the falsely accused, the high price incurred by ISPs (particularly small ones), and the issue of tracking repeat offenders across multiple ISPs.

The question now becomes whether the entertainment industry will be able to convince Uncle Sam to pass a mandatory three strikes law and force ISPs to comply with their wishes. You probably shouldn't rule that out, given the high number of entertainment-industry lawyers that are joining the new administration's Justice Department.