Last week AT&T announced the company has been promising regulators it will deploy fiber to the home to around 11.7 million households if its acquisition of DirecTV is approved. AT&T's filing (pdf) with the government doesn't specifically state all of these users will see gigabit speeds, industry rumors suggesting they may be looking at technologies like G.Fast for a large number of apartment buildings (at speeds possibly around 400-700 Mbps down, 100 Mbps up).
Even if AT&T is playing with math here (which is generally the company's MO any time it
wants something from regulators), Wall Street analysts note the expansion will still bring at least some competition to bear on the cable sector.
In a research note to investors, oft-quoted telecom analyst Craig Moffett called AT&T's plans "by far the largest fiber builder over the next five years or so." It's not clear if Moffett understands that what AT&T's proposing may not be full fiber, or remembers that Comcast is promising to deploy fiber to 18 million homes by year's end.
According to Moffett's analysis, AT&T's expansion will increase the company's fiber overlap in Charter territories from 7% to 12%, in Comcast territories from 18% to 22%, and in the likely-merged Time Warner Cable and Charter territories from around 17% to 21%. Greater competition in these markets means greater competition for consumers, and lower prices.
There's a few things wrong with Moffett's scenario.
One, AT&T's numbers on its fiber deployments have simply never been trustworthy, modified endlessly to convince regulators to sign off on deals. In many instances, AT&T cites deployments already completed or already planned as deployments they'll soon engage in if only regulators give them "X". In other words, the lion's share of that 11.7 million is housing developments where fiber's likely already in the ground, and AT&T simply needs to open the spigot.
Secondly, while AT&T is expanding fiber to the node in some markets (mostly high-end developments) it's dramatically pulling back on DSL hundreds of markets it doesn't want to upgrade, actually creating less competition than ever before in many areas. Moffett doesn't factor this into his percentage projections. Meanwhile, just because AT&T bumps speeds in a market doesn't magically mean prices will be reduced; duopolies tend to just raise rates in unison unless there's an aggressive thirty-party disruptive operator (Google Fiber, independent ISP, or municipal broadband) present.
So yes, while AT&T's fiber "expansion" is likely good news for many development and apartment dwellers, the press (and Wall Street) are likely dramatically over-estimating the real impact AT&T's plans are going to have. AT&T's constantly-reduced fixed-line CAPEX budget makes it perfectly clear that the company's tip priority is, and will continue to be, wireless.