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Analyst: Comcast Could Buy Netflix, Cablevision if Merger Stalls

While most analysts still think regulators will approve Comcast's $45 billion acquisition of Time Warner Cable, there's been a notable decrease in certainty that the deal will happen. If it does happen, Comcast will likely find itself facing conditions a bit tougher than the flimsy conditions applied to mergers in years past (which in some cases Comcast often still struggled to adhere to). If the merger doesn't get approved, Comcast may decide to gaze elsewhere for possible acquisition deals.

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According to BTIG Research analyst Rich Greenfield (via BGR), Comcast might turn its attentions to acquiring Netflix:
quote:
Netflix has no control shareholders and we have to imagine the board would listen to a truly compelling offer from Comcast. Tech is hard and traditional media companies are simply not offering best-in-class apps across an array of devices. With consumers increasingly interested in ad-free streaming, Netflix could provide Comcast with an incredible team and platform to learn from, which could accelerate Comcast’s virtual MVPD efforts. Not to mention, Comcast could further the reach of Netflix domestically by integrating the service into its set-top boxes.
Given the outright hostility between the two companies of late, a deal really doesn't seem likely, though stranger things have certainly happened. Greenfield also suggests that Comcast could look toward Cablevision as a possible acquisition target:
quote:
While a failed merger with Time Warner Cable implies that Comcast simply cannot get bigger subscriber wise, they could voluntarily divest a few millions subscribers to Charter and attempt to buy Cablevision to gain the New York City exposure they coveted in the TWC transaction. Although the Dolans have never expressed an interest in selling Cablevision, given the fundamental changes in consumer behavior affecting the sector, Comcast could represent a compelling exit opportunity for the Dolan family.
Cablevision has been a rumored acquisition target for as long as this site has been operational, however. Still, it would at least give Comcast a major presence in the New York tri-state area, even if that's a far cry from Comcast's current ambitions. Of course this is all guesswork by Greenfield, the most likely scenario remains that the FCC approves Comcast's deal, but it layers on conditions requiring some measure of support for the FCC's myriad new policy pushes (from net neutrality to municipal broadband).
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Flyonthewall
@teksavvy.com

Flyonthewall

Anon

Comcast buying Netflix would signal the end of Netflix

They'd shut it down, and that's why this idea has absolutely no merit. The FCC would never approve Comcast buying a competitor like Netflix out, especially after they way it's been proven they've behaved.

Simba7
I Void Warranties
join:2003-03-24
Billings, MT

Simba7

Member

Re: Comcast buying Netflix would signal the end of Netflix

said by Flyonthewall :

The FCC would never approve Comcast buying a competitor like Netflix out, especially after they way it's been proven they've behaved.

Why not? They let them buy NBC Universal. See how much of a nightmare that turned out to be?

Streetlight
join:2005-11-07
Colorado Springs, CO

Streetlight

Member

Re: Comcast buying Netflix would signal the end of Netflix

The NBC Universal purchase in some ways is not done. IIRC, there is a seven year time after the merger where Comcast must be a good citizen and not make too many demands about price, etc., on other cable companies. I think they just started year five. We'll see what happens in another three or four of years what kind of citizen Comcast is vis a vie NBC U.

spewak
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spewak to Simba7

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to Simba7
said by Simba7:

Why not? They let them buy NBC Universal. See how much of a nightmare that turned out to be?

And they let them buy TechTv! Well, the FCC had nothing to do with that one, but, Comcast did ruin it!
GraysonPeddi
Grayson Peddie
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GraysonPeddi

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Re: Comcast buying Netflix would signal the end of Netflix

Yeah, I used to love TechTV. Now it's called "G4."

I don't give a damn about cable TV now. I grew up as a teen during the 90s and I was so happy with it. I grew up with music videos in BET, VH1, and MTV. Even Disney Channel that was not so filled with reality TV shows. But NO MORE.

KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
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join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK

KrK

Premium Member

Re: Comcast buying Netflix would signal the end of Netflix

Cable TV (pay TV) used to have value. Now it's pure crap and completely not needed anymore.

cork1958
Cork
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cork1958 to GraysonPeddi

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to GraysonPeddi
said by GraysonPeddi:

I don't give a damn about cable TV now. I grew up as a teen during the 90s and I was so happy with it. I grew up with music videos in BET, VH1, and MTV. Even Disney Channel that was not so filled with reality TV shows. But NO MORE.

Oh, boy! Grew up during the 90's, huh? The 90's sucked through and through! MTV was never any good, but was a fad just like almost everything else from that time period on. There has been next to no innovation or anything since that time and exactly why you never see anything sticking around or any good anymore! One of the worst decades ever!

As far as Comcast buying Netflix, that would just mean that I would NEVER consider trying it again!! Wasn't anything worth a squat on it when I did try it out a year or so ago!
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96964493
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96964493 to Flyonthewall

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to Flyonthewall
FCC wouldn't have any say. Its basically the same as them owning part of Hulu. And Hulu could make that purchase
Cobra11M
join:2010-12-23
Mineral Wells, TX

Cobra11M

Member

Re: Comcast buying Netflix would signal the end of Netflix

DOJ would, FCC would be pretty questionable..since your right its like a site being bought out...
BosstonesOwn
join:2002-12-15
Wakefield, MA

BosstonesOwn to Flyonthewall

Member

to Flyonthewall
The FCC doesn't really get a chance to "approve" this... matter of fact this would go just through 3 layers and all of them have no chance to destroy it... They could get this through easy.
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"It's always funny until someone gets hurt......and then it's absolutely friggin' hysterical!"
Needleinthha
join:2009-11-30
Chandler, AZ

Needleinthha

Member

please no

I hope to god comcast doesn't buy netflix....I'm sure they'd find a way to completely ruin it within a year or two...theyd probably raise prices by 50% then start putting advertisements in the middle of shows and then decide they need stronger DRM and make it so bad everyone will just go back to pirating.

Camelot One
MVM
join:2001-11-21
Greenwood, IN
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Camelot One

MVM

Re: please no

On the up side, Comcast buying Netflix would make one group of people very happy.
Amazon shareholders, after Prime becomes the only streaming service people use.
96964493
join:2015-01-09
USA

96964493

Member

Re: please no

That's because Amazon isn't making anything
Cobra11M
join:2010-12-23
Mineral Wells, TX

Cobra11M to Camelot One

Member

to Camelot One
nope, amazon would drop it save money

streaming1
@comcast.net

streaming1

Anon

Re: please no

Never in a million years would Amazon drop prime streaming. Amazon doesn't stream video because it wants to get rich doing so. They stream video because they use it as a value add for their over all business. They've never made money on it. But it helps their hardware sales and is added benefit to their retail shopping. Sorry to say this but if you believe the statement you just made then you clearly do not know Amazon very well.

Majestik
World Traveler
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Tulsa, OK

Majestik to Needleinthha

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to Needleinthha
Soon as I find out Comcast owns Netflix I will cancel.
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Snakeoil
Ignore Button. The coward's feature.
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Snakeoil

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Re: please no

same here. Bad enough Comcast owns NBC.
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Slyster
join:2015-01-08
Sugar Grove, VA

Slyster

Member

Why not use those billions..

To further improve their network and to expand their footprint and go into areas with no cable providers?

Zenit
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Zenit

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Re: Why not use those billions..

Because using those billions for expanding coverage does not result in rapid multiplication of the billions. Return is slow. Of course the investors want rapid returns, not slow returns...so we have what we have.

Comcast grew mostly by buying out smaller cable companies that bothered to build out new coverage on a large scale by going after towns and villages and getting franchises. Its cheaper to buy the rinky-dink cable companies for dimes on the dollar than to actually build it out yourself.

And the days of small time investors scrambling to build local cable systems are over, they ended back in the 70's/80's.

Your only hope of expanded coverage will be through franchise negotiations if your county has a franchise with CC. They can strong-arm their way into getting them to build in a few more towns/villages when it comes time to renew.
BiggA
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EARTH

BiggA

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Re: Why not use those billions..

And they still haven't finished upgrading all of those systems. Some are still running at 550-650mhz.

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
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batterup to Zenit

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to Zenit
said by Zenit:

Its cheaper to buy the rinky-dink cable companies for dimes on the dollar than to actually build it out yourself.

Oh, so Google learned that from Comcast. Google did it better they paid nothing for Provo's municipal fiber.

Zenit
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Zenit

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Re: Why not use those billions..

I guess it could be said Google is following the Comcast model of the 70s/80s...it's smart business to buy expensive assets on the cheap.

The first Roberts (who founded Comcast) built it up by buying up little tiny cable systems left and right nationwide - systems that could have been as small as a single town.

To think that today they are the largest MSO in the country...
BiggA
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BiggA

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Re: Why not use those billions..

And they still haven't finished integrating all of those systems or their various regions into one, unified company. In some ways, they are a big company that owns a bunch of little cable companies under one ownership structure...

KrK
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KrK to batterup

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to batterup
Except of course, Google Fiber will take Provo and make it work and people will love it. Instead of running it into the ground.

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
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batterup

Premium Member

Re: Why not use those billions..

said by KrK:

Except of course, Google Fiber will take Provo and make it work and people will love it. Instead of running it into the ground.

FiOS would work too if it was paid for by tax payers and Verizon got to keep ALL of the profits. Comparing how FiOS was treated compared to Google is ludicrous.

KrK
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KrK

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Re: Why not use those billions..

The Telcos have had their years of cozy monopolies and special treatment and tax breaks and today still benefit from special treatment and the results thereof. I won't cry for them. The only thing holding FiOS back is Verizon's mentality. They could easily grab a huge footprint long before Google ever could, it just requires longer term thinking then they apparently willing to try.
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batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
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batterup

Premium Member

Re: Why not use those billions..

said by KrK:

The only thing holding FiOS back is Verizon's mentality.

Verizon mentality is land-lines are more trouble than they are worth. They, sadly, are correct. In 10 years Verizon will be wireless only. You people hounded them out of the wire-line business.
BiggA
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BiggA

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Re: Why not use those billions..

You people? Verizon is driving themselves out of their copper markets by not upgrading them to FIOS.

KrK
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KrK to batterup

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Wireless only is more example of short term thinking. Way higher margins in the short run, less initial outlay. Sounds like a no brainer.... BUT.... wireless is also much easier to compete with. A large wired network is a huge edge that competitors can't come in and duplicate easily or affordably--- if at all. Having one guarantees your company a place that you can't be shaken out of..... not to mention I feel it synergizes well with the wireless side. We'll see how it plays out I guess.
--
"Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power." -- Benito Mussolini

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
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batterup

Premium Member

Re: Why not use those billions..

said by KrK:

A large wired network is a huge edge that competitors can't come in and duplicate easily or affordably--- if at all.

Exactly, that is why it is a natural monopoly and was successfully treated as such for 100 years. Then it was deregulated as a free enterprise but Verizon was still treated as a title II phone company. Verizon spent $23 billion placing FiOS and it isn't working because they don't get the breaks Google does.

I love you armchair CEOs who have this all figured out. It is easy if you don't have any skin in the game. You don't see Google buying any of Verizon's land line offerings. They should have bought the California offering, it was FiOS rich with municipal fiber skimming the cream in Santa Monica. So Google agrees with me and says you are wrong.

KrK
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KrK

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Re: Why not use those billions..

No, it doesn't work because Verizon DOESN'T WANT IT TO WORK. They were going great guns until a change in mentality at the top. Now, they are focusing wireless only. That's the only reason FiOS was halted. Verizon has had far more breaks then Google could ever dream of. In fact, one could argue that the reason people are even willing to give Google breaks is because they are so tired of the incumbents blowing them off, and therefore are embracing Google to come bring them the fiber of the future.
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"Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power." -- Benito Mussolini

batterup
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batterup to Slyster

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to Slyster
There is hope, treat Verizon like Google.

quote:
"Expansion into other areas I wouldn't rule out, but it would have a very high bar," McAdam said. "If you look at some of the things that Google is doing around fiber, I think that's opened up a new model for us."

TestBoy
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TestBoy

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merger fixation??

Why are these guys so fixated on buying more and more companies and 'stuff' ????

When there is nothing left to buy I guess they start buying whole countries?

•••••••••••••

conflix
@verizon.net

conflix

Anon

hell no

then it be called conflix not Netflix and ill drop them

Flyonthewall
@teksavvy.com

Flyonthewall

Anon

As well

If Comcast truly wanted to compete and get more subscribers, they could start laying down line in areas they don't service. The fact that they don't implies they aren't really interested in true competition.
96964493
join:2015-01-09
USA

96964493

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Re: As well

The same goes with TK. Overbuilding doesn't make sense on 99.999% of the country

odreian615
join:2006-01-18
Chicago, IL

odreian615

Member

I just can't trust BGR

These guys are paid to troll. They have tons of clickbait articles.

Cheese
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Cheese

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Re: I just can't trust BGR

BGR is a pathetic waste of a site, Apple trolls run the forums and the owner basically told me he isn't going to do anything about it.
Cobra11M
join:2010-12-23
Mineral Wells, TX

Cobra11M

Member

hmmm

hostile take over?, not much anyone can do if they do attempt it.. I guess worse comes to worse people will have to drop it we all know comcast will raise rates slowly but frequent over a 5 year time to the extent of possibly making it 20+ a month easy, with the implementation of caps also they could rake in on both ends... yay for the investors again a boo for the folks that live on 30k or less a year
Kearnstd
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Kearnstd

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Re: hmmm

I have no clue if Netflix has patents but I know if I ran a company I would have a gameplan for hostile takeovers that for one thing would involve an exec departing the company if it was clear the takeover could not be avoided and then sell his newly created firm all the patents for a few bucks.

The hostile company now gains a name and a customer base but has none of the patents to operate it or to make product.

In fact I would imagine this has happened before in hostile takeovers where departing people in the right positions poison the company. Or they start a new company and rehire all the key people meaning the new buyer has lost all the expertise.
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n2jtx
join:2001-01-13
Glen Head, NY

n2jtx

Member

If...

If Comcast buys Cablevision and/or Netflix I will be dropping my subscriptions ASAP. FiOS is an option for me and Netflix, well, I'll just go without. I lump Comcast with AT&T as telecom's I really despise.
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tmc8080
join:2004-04-24
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tmc8080

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none of which helps the consumer

all these companies are looking for is how to make profits bigger..
none of this is aimed at evolving traditional cable-tv or widening broadband investments to get more consumers to ULTRA band (think gigabit symmetric +)

and to that end, they can go scratch with a broken bottle

tschmidt
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tschmidt

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Re: none of which helps the consumer

said by tmc8080:

all these companies are looking for is how to make profits bigger

The problem is not so much looking for larger profits - that is after all why corporations exist.

It is looking for short term profits at the expense of long term growth.

/tom
Kearnstd
Space Elf
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Kearnstd

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Re: none of which helps the consumer

Wasn't there a time when companies played the long game.
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OpTiC
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OpTiC

Premium Member

TWC

I actually do see TWC buying CV if this gets declined. But CV overlaps with TWC in NYC.

xirian
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join:2003-01-26
Beacon, NY
kudos:1

xirian

Premium Member

Re: TWC

There is a rumor basically every year that TWC is going to buy cablevision. I wouldn't trust these analysts, they just seem to make up stuff.

OpTiC
Premium Member
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OpTiC

Premium Member

Re: TWC

said by xirian:

There is a rumor basically every year that TWC is going to buy cablevision. I wouldn't trust these analysts, they just seem to make up stuff.

Also I see TWC going after Charter in LA and Dallas and Cox SD and LA.
romulusnr
join:2007-08-01
Federal Way, WA

romulusnr

Member

How is this remotely OK either?

After buying NBC, Comcast also buying Netflix is unconscionable.

The FTC did right when blocking the ATT-TMO merger, and if they have any sense, they will also block the Comcast-TWC merger, and also a Comcast-Netflix merger, for the above reason.

Comcast has no business merging with anyone except maybe Ticketmaster.
tkdslr
join:2004-04-24
Pompano Beach, FL
kudos:1
·T-Mobile US

tkdslr

Member

Netflix market cap of 29B and PE of 105 to 1.

Comcast current PE ratio is 18.85 to 1.
TWX has a PE of 18.94

Comcast stock would take a huge hit, making it non-starter.

The share holders would sue them to high heaven, and I suspect
various content licensors would probably nullify Netflix's cheaper contracts in favor of Comcast's higher rates.
shmerl
join:2013-10-21
kudos:1

shmerl

Member

No!

Comcast buying Cablevision? What a nightmare. Comcast should be forbidden from buying any other ISP - they are too big already.

•••

mikedz4
join:2003-04-14
Weirton, WV
·Xfinity

mikedz4

Member

there will be 3 cable companies by 2020

Comcast will be the main cable company from the Mississippi river and eastward. Charter will be the cable company for the rockie mountains and mid west.
Cox/time warner will be the cable company for the west coast like Nevada, arizon, Oregon, Washington and California.

May sound funny now but I do see this eventually happening. Will there be small other cable companies yes but expect cablevision, suddenlink, media com ,etc to be acquired by other companies.

YMun99
join:2015-03-01
Providence, RI
·Verizon FiOS

YMun99

Member

No Way!

After reading all the responses IMHO Comcast will destroy NetFlix it's a bad idea and monopoly's are no good company's promise cheap products but you only end up paying more as they will slowly raise rates and then your stuck with one company no alternatives I so hope this doesn't happen maybe it's just a rumor.
suggy2004
join:2004-01-07
Conshohocken, PA

suggy2004

Member

Comcast New Motto

Comcast new motto should read" if you can beat them, then buy them" & the fine print, then shut them down...

whiteshp
join:2002-03-05
Xenia, OH

whiteshp

Member

I could see them buying Netflix.

I could see Comcast buying because Netflix is the forerunner of technologies enabling cord-cutters leaving traditional cable. Comcast would want to stop this exodus. "If" they acquired I would see a road map similar to Hulu. First cut spending on content to soak the current subscription base till it drops. When base drops off due to lack of content they could then transfer their cable content to Netflix and require "cable" service to view it because their content is licensed cable only. Netflix would become a footnote and traditional cable would benefit from monopoly protection of killing off the #1 cord-cutting competitor they had. Yes, I could see Comcast having a reason to acquire Netflix.
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