DSL (Copper) Plans To Stick Around - Demise due to fiber greatly exaggerated, says firm

DSL (Copper) Plans To Stick Around
Demise due to fiber greatly exaggerated, says firm
(old news - 03:32PM Tuesday Aug 07 2007)
tags: dsl · Fiber · business · hardware · bandwidth · networking · AT&T

Yes, we all would love to have fiber-to-the-home connections, but market research firm iSuppli insists that rumors of the death of copper have been greatly exaggerated. The firm predicts that VDSL will in fact be very popular as companies continue to milk their copper infrastructure for years to come.

The Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) technology used now has evolved to the point that the existing copper plant theoretically could support downstream data rates approaching 24Mbits/Sec. over copper loops. With VDSL 2, downstream speeds of 100Mbits/Sec. could be supported, theoretically. However, copper has an Achilles’ heel: the length of the loop. The longer the loop, the less bandwidth it can support.

The firm predicts that copper still has a role to play in the broadband sector for at least another quarter century. Of course, all eyes are on AT&T, who, with the exception of some greenfield FTTH deployments, has tagged VDSL/VDSL2 as their next-gen flavor of choice for their U-Verse service.

Skepticism surrounding the ability of VDSL to offer future-proof bandwidth could be reduced once AT&T shows that dual-HD streams over VDSL work as promised. AT&T recently announced they'd delayed the release of dual HD streams and pair bonding (faster U-Verse speeds) into the second quarter of '08.

As an aside, our forum users discuss that even when AT&T deploys fiber all the way to the home, they're still only offering 6Mbps of available bandwidth and a single high-definition stream. Indications are that's not going to change until next year.

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Forums » DSL (Copper) Plans To Stick Around


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TK Junk Mail Go ahead, make my day Premium join:2002-03-03 Margate City, NJ clubs: ·Comcast	FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise A hybrid system where fiber is run to local nodes and then copper the rest of the way to the premises using VDSL shows a lot of promise. It leeps local loops short and speeds high without incurring the cost of running fiber to every home. I think we will see a lot of this over the next decade or two. -- -- Internet News My BLOG My Web Page
	permalink · 2007-08-07 15:38:26 ·

morbo Complete Your Transaction join:2002-01-22 00000 clubs:	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise keeps cost low TEMPORARILY. eventually, all these homes will have to be re-wired. the cost of labor to do this will be astronomical no matter if they do it today or in 5 years. so what's the true benefit in waiting?
	permalink · 2007-08-07 15:44:28 ·

N3OGH They both suck, we're so screwed Premium join:2003-11-11 Philly burbs	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise Is that box in the picture tilted to the left???
	permalink · 2007-08-07 15:52:00 ·

TK Junk Mail Go ahead, make my day Premium join:2002-03-03 Margate City, NJ clubs: ·Comcast	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise said by N3OGH : Is that box in the picture tilted to the left??? It must have been taken by a BBR camera.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 15:58:10 ·

pcnetworx1 join:2005-09-21 Bethel Park, PA	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise slow clap
	permalink · 2007-08-07 16:28:19 ·

N3OGH They both suck, we're so screwed Premium join:2003-11-11 Philly burbs	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise Is that an O&A reference???
	permalink · 2007-08-07 20:27:37 ·

KA3SGM - -... ...- - Premium join:2006-01-17 West Chester, PA clubs:	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise The cabinet is being pulled sideways by the excessive gravitational pull of the Orbiting AT&T Death Star. Only other explanation would be that mid-summer frost heave issue. -- We're Gonna Need A Bigger Boat !!
	permalink · 2007-08-10 09:36:36 ·

chemaupr join:2005-06-06 Alexandria, VA	To short term investor its better to wait? more cash, more profit, more dividends... But if the company only think short term... well short term life they'll have.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 15:53:03 ·

John Galt Spricket24 Premium join:2004-09-30 Oceanside, OR	said by morbo : keeps cost low TEMPORARILY. eventually, all these homes will have to be re-wired. the cost of labor to do this will be astronomical no matter if they do it today or in 5 years. so what's the true benefit in waiting? So what is the benefit of going ahead NOW if the cost is STILL going to be astronomical? There is a limit to the CAPEX available. -- A is A
	permalink · 2007-08-07 15:53:17 · Print ·

morbo Complete Your Transaction join:2002-01-22 00000 clubs:	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise the benefit is to stay competitive before cableco eats their lunch in internet and phone/voip. at least with fiber, they can play the game AND get in on tv subscriptions.
	permalink · 2007-08-08 09:44:09 ·

dynodb
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join:2004-04-21
Minneapolis, MN

What's the benefit of waiting? The same benefit of waiting that you or I get when it comes to technology- as time goes on gear gets smaller, cheaper and better.

Perhaps more importantly, the demand amongst the general public isn't there yet for 100M, meaning the longer they wait the less time it takes to recoup investment costs. Pretty simple really- spend billions now on fiber that will be mostly dark, or spend it later when demand justifies the capital expense.

Of course this is BBR, where reality is quickly brushed aside in favor of "waaaa... but I want it now so I can pirate movies faster from my Mom's basement."

permalink · 2007-08-07 16:46:07 · Print ·

jsimmons
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Falls Church, VA

·Cox HSI

Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise

said by dynodb

:

What's the benefit of waiting? The same benefit of waiting that you or I get when it comes to technology- as time goes on gear gets smaller, cheaper and better.

Yes. the technology gets cheaper and better over time. But I can say with very high probability - the cost of installinng a new infrastructure (ala Fiber) to the node or home will be much higher in 1 2 or 5 years than today due to labor and in many cases the cost to acquire rights of way.
--
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permalink · 2007-08-07 17:11:51 · Print ·

John Galt
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Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise

said by jsimmons

:

But I can say with very high probability - the cost of installinng a new infrastructure (ala Fiber) to the node or home will be much higher in 1 2 or 5 years than today due to labor and in many cases the cost to acquire rights of way.

Naw...you just get some of them "guest workers" that are floating around these days. Ain't much difference in throwing a conduit or a sprinkler pipe in the ditch .

¿Puede usted decir la "fibra óptica"?

ROW costs won't change significantly...
--
A is A

permalink · 2007-08-07 18:07:05 · Print ·

hottboiinnc Kyle join:2003-10-15 Toledo, OH	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise ROW costs will probably be cheaper with state-wide agreements.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 19:05:15 ·

bmn
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Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise

said by hottboiinnc

:

ROW costs will probably be cheaper with state-wide agreements.

ROW costs are always local. A state-wide franchise agreement wouldn't solve that as each locality is responsible for the ROW in its jurisdiction.

If a state-wide agreement tried to change that, you can bet there will be some screaming because ROW costs vary based on location for a number of reasons.
--
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permalink · 2007-08-07 19:26:39 · Print ·

hottboiinnc Kyle join:2003-10-15 Toledo, OH	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise as much is squeezed through on the state wide agreements i wouldnt be surprised if thats included to take away from the local governments in wordering only the telco's understand.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 19:49:51 ·

Nightfall
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said by morbo

:

keeps cost low TEMPORARILY. eventually, all these homes will have to be re-wired. the cost of labor to do this will be astronomical no matter if they do it today or in 5 years. so what's the true benefit in waiting?

The cost of technology like this goes down as time goes on. Remember when a managed network switch used to be expensive? Remember when gigabit ethernet was just too much to invest in? As time has went on, those things have become more affordable. Same will happen with fiber. It will be much less costly in about 3-5 years.
--
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permalink · 2007-08-07 16:55:35 · Print ·

morbo Complete Your Transaction join:2002-01-22 00000 clubs:	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise yes, but the most expensive part, LABOR, only goes up. it never goes down. now imagine going into every house in their 22 states to wire them. there's no way to bypass that.
	permalink · 2007-08-08 09:53:04 ·

NewMariner

join:2005-06-24

said by morbo

Wrong...Wiring to a Node down the street is much cheaper then wiring to the home. The cost today are astronomical compared to what they will be in the future. For instance, verizon has stated that to wire a home for FTTP when they first started was around 2k per home. Now it is down to around 900-1k per home. As workers get more experience working it, and fiber is able to be run around corners(which I have read is coming soon) then it will get cheaper. So in all reality, why not use FTTN as a stepping stone. Your halfway to FTTP...along with FTTN you also get faster speeds.

This mentality that everything is owed to you and you should have it NOW! has got to stop...it is bringing down America.

permalink · 2007-08-07 17:18:18 · Print ·

morbo Complete Your Transaction join:2002-01-22 00000 clubs: ·Charter Pipeline ·AT&T Southwest	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise said by NewMariner : This mentality that everything is owed to you and you should have it NOW! has got to stop...it is bringing down America. freak
	permalink · 2007-08-08 09:47:56 ·

en102 Canadian, eh? join:2001-01-26 Valencia, CA ·RoadRunner Cable ·DSL EXTREME ·DSL EXTREME	Shareholders holding out for cheaper cost of... fiber ? GPON ? There's actually a downside to the VRADs (besides the appearance). 1. Physical cost of the VRAD 2. Site prep of the VRAD (concrete, running fiber) 3. Physical maint. of the VRAD (power, electronics, site visit, vandalism, car crash, etc.) Compared to... CO based FTTH. -- Canada = Hollywood North
	permalink · 2007-08-07 17:57:52 ·

John Galt Spricket24 Premium join:2004-09-30 Oceanside, OR	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise said by en102 : Shareholders Compared to... CO based FTTH. So...you are proposing that all the fiber be homerun to the CO with no active electronics in the field?? -- A is A
	permalink · 2007-08-07 18:12:07 ·

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

·RoadRunner Cable

·DSL EXTREME

Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise

In some areas... it may be cheaper. I'd at least recommed keeping the old 'crossconnect' / F2 boxes as a location to splice/cutover old wire.

In my area (Valencia Hills), there is a VRAD at each end of the nieghborhood (3 covering 2 HOAs).

Cost of buildout for VRAD = ?
Cost of maint on VRAD = ?

vs.
Cost of buildout of fiber = ?
Cost of maint of fiber = ?

I don't have any numbers, but what's the cost of powering/maintaining those VRADs ?
--
Canada = Hollywood North

permalink · 2007-08-07 18:54:40 · Print ·

bmn ? ? ? Premium,ExMod 2003-06 join:2001-03-15 hiatus	PONs... Don't have to homerun every connection, just neighborhoods.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 19:27:53 ·

halfband Premium join:2002-06-01 Huntsville, AL	That is exactly the way cable did it. Fiber to the node, then run on the existing RF/copper to the home. Has worked for them so far, but the telcos are real late to the party. -- Registered Bandwidth Offender #40812
	permalink · 2007-08-07 16:18:27 ·

tschmidt
Premium,MVM
join:2000-11-12
Milford, NH

·Verizon Online DSL

said by TK Junk Mail

:

A hybrid system where fiber is run to local nodes and then copper the rest of the way to the premises using VDSL shows a lot of promise.

But it also has a lot of disadvantages.

1) Active electronics in the field
2) Copper drops
3) Even over very short loops using ADSL2+ and VDSL speed is marginal for video delivery.
4) Retaining copper means it is impossible to retire or abandon copper outside plant.
5) Fiber to the premise needs to be run to most commercial locations due to higher demand. A lot of new fiber needs to be installed no matter which choice is made.
6) Cannot be used to carry legacy RF channelized CATV.
7) Copper OPEX is much higher then fiber I think by a factor of 10X.

Rolling out Remote Terminals (RT) and Fiber to the Curb (FTTC) is very expensive and does not have nearly as much upside as Fiber to the Premise (FTTP). Short term savings will likely be very expensive in the long run.

/Tom

permalink · 2007-08-07 20:29:44 · Print ·

bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Covington, LA

Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise

'Rolling out Remote Terminals (RT) and Fiber to the Curb (FTTC) is very expensive and does not have nearly as much upside as Fiber to the Premise (FTTP)'

Actually it does. There's almost no downside to FTTC. You can use VDSL2 for 100Mb/s with no trouble, no need for CPE power, and no copper plant outside of premise to curb. The scalability is also much higher than FTTN.

permalink · 2007-08-07 20:38:50 ·

tschmidt
Premium,MVM
join:2000-11-12
Milford, NH

·Verizon Online DSL

Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise

said by bogey780

:

You can use VDSL2 for 100Mb/s with no trouble, no need for CPE power, and no copper plant outside of premise to curb. The scalability is also much higher than FTTN.

100 Mbps is limited to loop length of about 1,000 feet. That means one needs a lot of nodes in the field. All those nodes needs to be feed by fiber.

True CPE power is not require unless you are not emulating POTS in the node. However each node needs access to AC power and backup power. That becomes the responsibility of the Telco.

/Tom

permalink · 2007-08-07 20:46:12 · Print ·

bogey780 join:2004-03-19 Covington, LA	Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise Are you familiar at all with FTTC? Not a criticism but curious on my part. FTTC is DESIGNED for loop lengths under 1kft. It's DESIGNED for telco provided DC power. 'True CPE power is not require unless you are not emulating POTS in the node. ' I don't understand that sentence at all. Could you try restating that?
	permalink · 2007-08-07 21:42:16 ·

tschmidt
Premium,MVM
join:2000-11-12
Milford, NH

·Verizon Online DSL

Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise

said by bogey780

:

Are you familiar at all with FTTC?

No. FTTx is just a way to package backhaul and customer drop. What is important is the capability of either side. ADSL and VDSL speed is distance limited.

said by bogey780

:

I don't understand that sentence at all.

Sorry if I was not clear. You are correct if POTS is emulated then power is not required at CPE.

However: being active each node require power and emergency backup power when utility power fails.

/Tom

permalink · 2007-08-07 22:04:57 · Print ·

bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Covington, LA

Re: FTTN & hybrid VDSL has promise

And that's what I'm saying. FTTC is designed with telco provided power and back-up power in mind. That's a definite plus it has over FTTP. A hybrid copper-fiber is laid to supply the power and optics for transmission at the time of installation. AT&T SE has a lot of the early generation and some of the latest generation throughout it's territory. The platform is well proven.

permalink · 2007-08-08 10:00:46 ·

Ignite
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UK
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·Be There

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DSL Will Always Be A Stopgap

As subject says DSL is nothing but a stopgap to sweat the copper infrastructure some more. In itself it's amazing how much data they are managing to throw down that twisted pair however eventually fibre will have to be brought so close to the home to achieve the required bandwidths that FTTP becomes an economical option, then it will happen.

Written on an 18Mbit down 2.6Mbit up ADSL2+ line, connection straight to CO with no remote DSLAM or FITL.

permalink · 2007-08-07 15:50:39 ·

Chris 313
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Docsis 3.0 is gonna stomp this into the floor.

AT&T has delayed faster speeds and better TV until next year? That'll be a major problem for them when Comcast pulls out Docsis 3 systems and speeds. Already, I've 8/768 which is faster than anything AT&T offers now. With Powerboost, I see near 30,000/2,000.

In a few months, the tier I'm on will be 16,000/2,000 where AT&T will still be at a max of 6000.

When Comcast and the other MSOs deploy D3, they'll easily put a hurt on AT&T unless they have something spectacular to pull out their ass.

And the best thing about it is that there are no big VRADs cluttering up the place.

permalink · 2007-08-07 15:56:23 · Print ·

Ignite
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edit:
August 7th, @04:05PM

Re: Docsis 3.0 is gonna stomp this into the floor.

FITL gives them some capability to improve.

8/768 is pretty crap for HFC and is slower than I see with zero fibre in the loop, DSL is capable of better given shorter loops and cable is capable of far better. That number is approximately the capability of DMT ADSL 1, so I'd say Comcast also sell their network short for commercial reasons as with appropriate node sizes and capacity upgrades their HFC architecture is easily capable of far more which makes me a bit cynical about what they will and won't deploy in the future.

When Comcast and other MSOs deploy DOCSIS 3 (which will probably require shutting some analogue down) I'm sure that the ILECs will respond, they've no choice in the matter. The FITL architecture gives them far more room to respond and they will be following a similar architecture to cablecos as far as splitting 'nodes' goes except it will be to minimise loop length rather than homes passed in their case.

Hell let the battle commence. Even Japan delivers 100Mbit using this tech, fibre to a VDSL2 DSLAM in the basement of an apartment block then twisted pair from there. Yes it's not fibre but neither is HFC so don't write it off just yet. Of course pure fibre is the gold standard but FITL can deliver.

EDIT: In short don't write the tech off because one operator chooses to underutilise it, just as Comcast only give you 8Mbit downstream while Cablevision give their subs 30 using the same tech, so VDSL2 is capable of far far more than the pretty banal 6/1 AT&T are offering.

permalink · 2007-08-07 16:02:23 · Print ·

bogey780 join:2004-03-19 Covington, LA	Ogres, Santa Clause, The Tooth Fairy all have DOCSIS 3.0 too. It's only a matter of time!
	permalink · 2007-08-07 16:39:58 ·

elios join:2005-11-15 Springfield, MO ·Mediacom	Re: Docsis 3.0 is gonna stomp this into the floor. dont for get Death and the Soul Cake Duck but yea IF cable can get DOCSIS 3 out to the masses and ATT doenst turn up the speeds soon its not looking good for ATT here in Springfield Cable already offer 15Mbps/1Mbps and U-vers isnt even here yet all Mediacom has to do to put a dent in ATT is up the upload to 2Mbps and were running at FiOS speeds
	permalink · 2007-08-08 08:05:17 ·

xo join:2007-06-15 Perry, FL	AT&T doesn't think you need anything more than 6 mbps.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 17:01:48 ·

w4ncr join:2000-10-27 Wilmington, NC	Re: AT&T JUST REMEMBER THE AT&T SLOGAN YOUR WORLD DELIVERED JUST A LOT SLOWER.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 17:16:21 ·

Xizer join:2004-02-05 Kenosha, WI	Yep. If you need more than 6 Mbps you must be using it for piracy: »money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/art···5783.htm Have fun with that one, AT&T customers.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 18:01:26 ·

PhoneTec @comcast.net	6mbps...for now Yes, AT&T is only offering 6mbps for now. The thing to remember is that the future potential far outways the bandwidth that can ever be offered by cable's "daisy chained" network. This is FTTN or FTTP, a direct line to your house, private, that your not sharing. A little patience people, it will get here. The current network wasn't built in a couple years either.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 18:03:55 ·

bmn
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Re: 6mbps...for now

said by PhoneTec :

Yes, AT&T is only offering 6mbps for now. The thing to remember is that the future potential far outways the bandwidth that can ever be offered by cable's "daisy chained" network.

Depends... Node splits, high order QAM, UWB, etc. will always expand on the capacity of current HFC networks.

This is FTTN or FTTP, a direct line to your house, private, that your not sharing.

Depends on how much bandwidth is provided to your neighbor to be shared amongst all those FTTN subs. FTTH with out intervening electronics would be the only way you'll get that unshared bandwidth.
--
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permalink · 2007-08-07 19:33:07 · Print ·

bogey780 join:2004-03-19 Covington, LA	Re: 6mbps...for now Passive optical shares bandwidth with all optical nodes on the chain. Luckily so far there's just a lot of bandwidth.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 20:40:05 ·

bmn ? ? ? Premium,ExMod 2003-06 join:2001-03-15 hiatus ·Packet8 ·Cox HSI	Re: 6mbps...for now said by bogey780 : Passive optical shares bandwidth with all optical nodes on the chain. Luckily so far there's just a lot of bandwidth. True and PONs usually are deployed with such small numbers of people sharing the bandwidth (~32-64) that the bandwidth provided is more than sufficient. -- Prove it... Save the Internet Time (NTP) service, use the pool.
	permalink · 2007-08-07 22:01:23 · Print ·

Neyland85

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North Augusta, SC

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said by PhoneTec :

Yes, AT&T is only offering 6mbps for now. The thing to remember is that the future potential far outways the bandwidth that can ever be offered by cable's "daisy chained" network. This is FTTN or FTTP, a direct line to your house, private, that your not sharing. A little patience people, it will get here. The current network wasn't built in a couple years either.

You mean I'm all alone for 1k feet before I join the other 300 homes in my neighborhood? Wow, I can only image the performance gain on that!

permalink · 2007-08-07 22:41:48 · Print ·

dvd536 as Mr. Pink as they come Premium join:2001-04-27 Phoenix, AZ	DSL Needs to die already. fibre is the future, why are companies still throwing cash at DSL? -- You can never be too rich, too thin or have too much Bandwidth
	permalink · 2007-08-07 22:41:45 ·

serge666 join:2004-06-07 Little Falls, NJ	Re: DSL 2 words Localized Monopolies
	permalink · 2007-08-08 02:41:17 ·

DemonChicken join:2006-10-15 Boon, MI ·Alltel Axess	Re: DSL DSL die. What about dial up? Why does it even still exist. Im not in the middle of freaking nowhere. Im 7 miles from town. I dont have it??? I think give us DSL so instead of complaining about horribly slow dial, well complain about horribldy slow DSL in ten years.
	permalink · 2007-08-08 23:52:14 ·

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DSL Will Always Be A Stopgap

Docsis 3.0 is gonna stomp this into the floor.

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AT&T

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