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DSL to FiOS Conversions Saved Verizon 600K Truck Rolls in 2013
by Karl Bode 08:19AM Tuesday Nov 26 2013 Tipped by Bill Neilson See Profile
Some years ago Verizon froze FiOS expansion to focus on making more money off of FiOS users (rate hikes), improving uptake rates in existing FiOS areas, and converting stubborn DSL users in those areas to FiOS. Speaking recently at an investor conference, Verizon CFO Fran Shammo estimated that the 300,000 DSL to FiOS migrations Verizon performed this year saved the company about 600,000 truck rolls and $100 million in repairs and maintenance in 2013 alone.

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The upgrades are profitable in other ways as well, Verizon noting that as users migrate from DSL to FiOS, they tend to pay more money:
quote:
"What we're seeing is that as these customers move over they are voluntarily buying up in speed," said Fran Shammo, CFO and EVP of Verizon during the Morgan Stanley 13th Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference. "We're seeing about a $20 to $30 ARPU increase once they move over from copper onto FiOS and that's just strictly on a double play."
That's not surprising given Verizon's constant FiOS hikes in recent years, and the fact their slowest and least expensive FiOS tier on offer (15 Mbps) costs $50 a month ($70 a month after the 12 month promo expires). Verizon currently has about 6.2 million customers connected to fiber and 6.1 million on copper. Unfortunately for many of those copper DSL users, they're in markets that Verizon hasn't upgraded -- and shows no interest in upgrading anytime soon.

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jtel

join:2005-06-28
Bristol, RI

Enough Savings to Expand FIOS?

Maybe they are hinting around so when they IPO Wireless & Enterprise investors won't flee should they start running fiber again.

Tomek
Premium
join:2002-01-30
Valley Stream, NY

Re: Enough Savings to Expand FIOS?

Nah, they rather sell off those markets
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Zenit

join:2012-05-07
N. VA, USA
Reviews:
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2 recommendations

Re: Enough Savings to Expand FIOS?

How can they sell off some of these markets, when they are connected legally to areas with FIOS? In our ex-C&P Telephone market there is a lot of FIOS, and a lot of Copper. There are a LOT of wealthy people in this region.

I cant see VZ abandoning such regions. They will -eventually- have to replace the copper. Someday. Perhaps in 2078.

If they took that savings, and put it back into the network, we would see a little more FIOS, and VZ would save even more. Makes sense, no? Nah, lets sell more 4G LTE and rip people off.
rradina

join:2000-08-08
Chesterfield, MO

Re: Enough Savings to Expand FIOS?

Not if they figure out a way to make those customers some kind of pure-wireless play.

ITALIAN926

join:2003-08-16
kudos:2
Reviews:
·Verizon FiOS

1 recommendation

Lets be serious here, if Verizon announced a 100% migration to FTTP, I wouldnt sell my VZ stock, Id buy more. Future proofing themselves, save an incredible amount of money on copper maintenance, and position themselves to gain more broadband/video customers? Im in.

Simba7
I Void Warranties

join:2003-03-24
Billings, MT

Re: Enough Savings to Expand FIOS?

Same here. I'd actually buy some stock at that point.
Skippy25

join:2000-09-13
Hazelwood, MO
Yes, but that is the smart patient thing to do. Which is completely contrary to the day trader mentality that you need to get in make your quick money and then get out. Today's investors, like the many you see trolling here, dont care about long term viability of a company.
Crookshanks

join:2008-02-04
Binghamton, NY
Reviews:
·Frontier Communi..

Re: Enough Savings to Expand FIOS?

You do realize that day traders represent a small percentage of the daily trading volume and an even smaller percentage of overall market capitalization, right? The majority of investments in the US Market are held by retirement and pension funds, that are in it for the long haul, and not inclined to engage in day trading or take short term positions.

There are a lot of things wrong with our economic culture, ranging from your neighbor who bought too much house, to the CEO with the golden parachute, to our borrow, print, and spend Federal Government. I'm just not convinced that Verizon's actions are that outlandish here. They don't have a limitless amount of money to spend on CapEx, so where should they allocate the resources that are available? To the growth market that is wireless or the mature market that is landline?

There are still tens of millions of Americans without smart phones. There are still huge coverage gaps in their wireless footprint. They still need to expand data capacity in many wireless markets.

Contrast that with wireline, where they have how many (five or six digits worth?) ONTs are sitting idle (translation: customers we can get with a small marketing budget and zero CapEx)? Contrast the relatively unregulated wireless market to the mandates they face in wireline. Consider the fact that they face entrenched competitors, the fact that wireline voice service is dying, and even cable television service is threatened as cord cutting goes mainstream.

Where would you like to see Verizon invest CapEx right now, thinking of your investments in them, which you doubtless have if you have a 401(k)?

They'll come back to wireline in the markets they still hold, once the wireless market matures. They aren't liable to find a buyer for what's left of the copper network, Frontier is tapped out, and I doubt anybody is going to raise capital to try and purchase that ancient network.

ITALIAN926

join:2003-08-16
kudos:2
Reviews:
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1 recommendation

Re: Enough Savings to Expand FIOS?

They spent 130 billion in money they dont have to buy-out Vodafone, they can likewise spend another paltry 30 billion to migrate the rest of their wireline footprint to FiOS. Whether you like it or not, they still have responsibilities here as an ILEC.
tmc8080

join:2004-04-24
Brooklyn, NY
Reviews:
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Re: Enough Savings to Expand FIOS?

Verizon acting in the so-called PUBLIC INEREST died sometime in 2006 - 2008 when AT&T was allowed to creep away from it's promises post Bell South merger.. Although this is some what a chicken & the egg-- or chicken little story (take your pick). Verizon will use about 99.9999% of profits to benefit top management, PREFERRED shareholders, and NOBODY ELSE.. since the record speaks for itself in the last decade.
Skippy25

join:2000-09-13
Hazelwood, MO
I wasnt speaking of actual day traders so I guess I used the wrong term as I failed to think of that inadequate group as you pointed out. I was speaking of the extremely short sighted traders that may or may not hold on to a stock for even a day, a week or a month.

I think I was pretty clear in many post here that I would like to see their CapEx invested in the long term viability of the wireline infrastructure.

Wireless, still relies on wireline and is probably decades away, if ever, from being a replacement to it for many applications. Saying that wireless has not matured I think is a little over stated.

Wireless will probably never mature if you are speaking of a final wireless protocol as they will always make improvements to it being it is so inadequate compared to wired. They will continue to invest billions upon billions over the next several decades just to keep up with it. Wired on the other hand can be vastly improved one time around and will last decades with only maintenance and minor improvements.

If you are speaking of coverage, I would be willing to be more people can get wireless than can get wired. But that is just me speculating.
Crookshanks

join:2008-02-04
Binghamton, NY
Reviews:
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Re: Enough Savings to Expand FIOS?

said by Skippy25:

Wireless, still relies on wireline and is probably decades away, if ever, from being a replacement to it for many applications.

Never claimed that it was a replacement, just that it likely makes more sense for them to invest their limited CapEx monies in wireless at the current moment in time.

said by Skippy25:

Saying that wireless has not matured I think is a little over stated.

It's a growth market, tens of millions of people without smart phones, vs. a hellva lot less people without access to Triple Play from an MSO or POTS/DSL/Satellite combo (not exactly the same, but still bundled billing, and lots of people are happy with it....)

Think about it, how many people do you really know without access to Triple Play?

said by Skippy25:

Wireless will probably never mature if you are speaking of a final wireless protocol as they will always make improvements to it being it is so inadequate compared to wired. They will continue to invest billions upon billions over the next several decades just to keep up with it. W

I'm speaking about the market itself. It's infinitely easier to get new customers than it is to steal customers away from a competitor, which is what they have to do if they seek to expand FIOS. They're right to focus on houses that already have access to FIOS (particularly those with unused ONTs hanging off the house....) but went with the MSO before they worry about expanding the footprint.

It's all about ROI, and it's higher in wireless right now.

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
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join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI
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Just a drop in the bucket

The $100 million does sound like a lot of money, but the simple fact of the matter is that the cost to bring FIOS to a home is much more expensive than that of traditional copper. The cost to terminate the fiber is still quite expensive. So much so that FIOS has to have the customer subscribing to their services for a good 3 years (with all phone, internet, and TV services) before a profit is even seen. Want to know the reason why FIOS isn't everywhere yet and why they are only in above average income areas? This is why.
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amarryat
Verizon FiOS

join:2005-05-02
Marshfield, MA
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Re: Just a drop in the bucket

said by Nightfall:

The cost to terminate the fiber is still quite expensive.

I know that was true 5 years ago, but is it still true? I thought the ONT's are much less expensive now. And the cable company installs a box as well, so what's the difference now?

Nightfall
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Re: Just a drop in the bucket

said by amarryat:

said by Nightfall:

The cost to terminate the fiber is still quite expensive.

I know that was true 5 years ago, but is it still true? I thought the ONT's are much less expensive now. And the cable company installs a box as well, so what's the difference now?

Its not really that much cheaper today. The end to end cost to terminate the fiber still is in the thousands for both ends. Which is why its important for FIOS to retain customers for 2-3 years before a profit is even seen.
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UnnDunn
Premium
join:2005-12-21
Brooklyn, NY

1 recommendation

Re: Just a drop in the bucket

said by Nightfall:

Its not really that much cheaper today. The end to end cost to terminate the fiber still is in the thousands for both ends. Which is why its important for FIOS to retain customers for 2-3 years before a profit is even seen.

Once the fiber is installed at the premises, it's there for life. It isn't just the customer who orders the installation, but also any subsequent tenants/owners of the premises who can order service.

2-3 years of service is a trivial bar to meet. Heck, I've had FiOS at my apartment for almost 3 years, and I'm moving to a new apartment that also has FiOS, where I intend to stay for at least 2-3 more years.

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
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join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI
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Re: Just a drop in the bucket

said by UnnDunn:

said by Nightfall:

Its not really that much cheaper today. The end to end cost to terminate the fiber still is in the thousands for both ends. Which is why its important for FIOS to retain customers for 2-3 years before a profit is even seen.

Once the fiber is installed at the premises, it's there for life. It isn't just the customer who orders the installation, but also any subsequent tenants/owners of the premises who can order service.

2-3 years of service is a trivial bar to meet. Heck, I've had FiOS at my apartment for almost 3 years, and I'm moving to a new apartment that also has FiOS, where I intend to stay for at least 2-3 more years.

Its only trivial if the investment is made up. Otherwise, the company just sunk a couple grand into the house or apartment and got nothing out of it.
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elefante72

join:2010-12-03
East Amherst, NY

2 recommendations

I read Google fibre is about $600 per POP. So I would put Verizon somewhere in the $800 per POP range circa 2014. Maybe someone from Verizon can chime in, but that is what I am seeing at broadcast locations today... Fibre is actually cheaper than copper now, physically and will continue to be.

Verizon runs a hybrid IP/SONET network (PON) which isn't ideal (GF is IP (WDM-PON)), however when they started deploying MetroE was way too expensive. BPONS are pretty much tapped, and GPONs will be in 4-5 years, so upgrading the NID in a cost effective manner will be the big money decision, but ye olde fibre will outlive me in the ground. That is why Verizon charges $$$ for anything over 75, it has to recover it's costs and it wants to keep utilization down.

Trenching (putting the cable in the ground) is 75% of the cost, so if you can get 100 years out of fibre you will be saving MASSIVE amounts of money.

I'm sorry but chasing the DSL/copper bug is dead. If it's not coax of fibre, its a dinosaur in the Smithsonian.

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
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Re: Just a drop in the bucket

said by elefante72:

I read Google fibre is about $600 per POP. So I would put Verizon somewhere in the $800 per POP range circa 2014. Maybe someone from Verizon can chime in, but that is what I am seeing at broadcast locations today... Fibre is actually cheaper than copper now, physically and will continue to be.

Do you have a link or source to back this up?

Back in 2011, a profitability study was done on FIOS and found it to be much more.

»www.businessweek.com/magazine/co···9606.htm

quote:
Frontier's proposed pricing moves suggest to Craig Moffett, a telecom analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein (AB), that FiOS does not turn a profit for Verizon, either. Moffett says his view is reinforced by Verizon's announcement in 2010 that it would effectively freeze its FiOS footprint. "It was a tacit admission that building new networks is a losing proposition," he says. "Frontier is saying that even operating them after they're built might not be worth it." He estimates the project will end up having cost Verizon $4,000 per connected home. Moffett calculates the present value of acquired subscribers at $3,200 each.

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sonicmerlin

join:2009-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:1

Re: Just a drop in the bucket

The cost of $4000 is per "connected home", meaning you have to consider uptake rate. The higher the uptake rate, the lower the cost. But cost per any home, connected or not, should be in the very low 1000's.

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
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Re: Just a drop in the bucket

said by sonicmerlin:

The cost of $4000 is per "connected home", meaning you have to consider uptake rate. The higher the uptake rate, the lower the cost. But cost per any home, connected or not, should be in the very low 1000's.

I guess I don't understand the uptake rate that you are talking about. I will do some searching on it. Do you have a link that may explain it for me?

Also, does the uptake rate also take into account other connectivity such as copper or cable?
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sonicmerlin

join:2009-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:1

Re: Just a drop in the bucket

Meaning if an ISP builds out fiber to 10 homes, but only 2 of them take up the service, then their uptake rate is 1/5 or 20%. So the cost of building out fiber to ten homes is spread out to only 2 paying households. So if it cost $1000 per home, it would be $10000 for all 10 homes, divided by 2 and you get $5000 per home.

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
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join:2001-08-03
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Re: Just a drop in the bucket

said by sonicmerlin:

Meaning if an ISP builds out fiber to 10 homes, but only 2 of them take up the service, then their uptake rate is 1/5 or 20%. So the cost of building out fiber to ten homes is spread out to only 2 paying households. So if it cost $1000 per home, it would be $10000 for all 10 homes, divided by 2 and you get $5000 per home.

All signs point to FIOS not being profitable unless the customer is buying services for a period of 2.5-3 years. I hear you on the uptake rate, and it sounds plausible. At the same time though, it sounds pretty low. Even lower than FIOS estimates or the experts estimate.

So while I do agree that the uptake rate should go down depending on the amount of houses in an area that purchase the service, I don't think it goes down that much.
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jjeffeory

join:2002-12-04
USA
Verizon trenches their cable? Not from what I've seen...

I Northern Virginia in the DC suburbs, they just throw the cable in the woods and vegetation grows up around it. Comcast does the same thing. I don't know about Cox, as they're in Fairfax county and it looked to me that they were a little neater.

I went house buying there a couple of years ago, and saw this time and time again at many locations.

Therefore if trenching is 75% of the costs, then Verizon is avoiding that cost in some areas of their footprint.
sonicmerlin

join:2009-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:1
GPON won't be "tapped" for eons. I don't know where you're getting that idea. That's 2.4 gbps shared amongst 32 people. Google easily offers 1 gbps over GPON. Sonys offering a 2 gbps service in japan over GPON. Verizon charges so much because they can. And XGPON is available and coming down in costs.
Bengie25

join:2010-04-22
Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Reviews:
·Solarus
said by Nightfall:

Its not really that much cheaper today. The end to end cost to terminate the fiber still is in the thousands for both ends. Which is why its important for FIOS to retain customers for 2-3 years before a profit is even seen.

The entire average cost for everything, including all networking gear, all fiber, all trenching, all truck-rolls to each customer's house to install, is about $1800/house, higher if your in the sticks, but only about double.

That doesn't include datacenter or trunk costs. Data center costs are cheaper through, because fiber gear uses about 10x less power and can handle about 10x-100x more connections per rack.
Bengie25

join:2010-04-22
Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Reviews:
·Solarus
I stayed home when I got fiber, so I could watch the installation.

Ignoring the trenching, it took one person about 10 minutes to connect the fiber that went to my cable box to the fiber that ran to my house. Then it took another person that came later, about 10-15 minutes get the outside fiber into the house.

The majority of the time was spent drilling a hole, patching it up, figuring out where to place my ONT in the basement, and mounting a panel for my ONT.

The actual handing of the fiber the a small portion of the time spent.

The bulk of an all fiber network has nothing to do with fiber and everything to do with man-hours working trenches and stopping at the customer's dwelling unit and figuring out how to route the cables.

All of the work to lay the fiber between my curb-side cable box to installing the ONT in my basement was about 1.5 hours. The bulk of that was a mix of trenching and trying to figure out where to put the ONT.

By definition, termination of fiber is just getting the fiber ready to be connected. About the same speed as I've seen veteran network people crimp a RJ45. They had a quick little hand tool. Spin it around the jacket to strip the jacket, expose the fiber, snip it, quick change of tools, something fast, done. plug it in.

It all happened so fast.

Nightfall
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Re: Just a drop in the bucket

said by Bengie25:

I stayed home when I got fiber, so I could watch the installation.

Ignoring the trenching, it took one person about 10 minutes to connect the fiber that went to my cable box to the fiber that ran to my house. Then it took another person that came later, about 10-15 minutes get the outside fiber into the house.

The time invested in the installation is not the only cost. The cost of the equipment to terminate the fiber is still around $2000 for both ends. In other studies, its much more per dwelling.
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Bengie25

join:2010-04-22
Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Reviews:
·Solarus

Re: Just a drop in the bucket

The entire cost of everything is about $2,000, not just the fiber. An entirely functional fiber network from scratch for about $2,000 per dwelling unit in suburbs.

Many times it's more expensive in a dense city because running fiber in a large many story old apartment building is much harder than a house or duplex.

Assuming you're in a nicely laid out city. Can double and triple in price as your get into farm land, but we're talking about 1-2 house holds per square mile, and not doing the more expensive underground installation.
Skippy25

join:2000-09-13
Hazelwood, MO

1 recommendation

Please show me a comparison to the cost of when they originally ran copper to a place back several decades ago in today's dollars compared to what it cost to lay fiber today.

Regardless how that turns out, fiber is much more robust in that it is not nearly affected by the elements as copper and it has a lot more capabilities than copper.
Bengie25

join:2010-04-22
Wisconsin Rapids, WI

Re: Just a drop in the bucket

Average cost for cable per house passed is around $1600 and fiber is about $1800. But you need to upgrade the cable network every few years and lots of maintenance.
Skippy25

join:2000-09-13
Hazelwood, MO

Re: Just a drop in the bucket

That is now. I am talking about back 60-100 years ago when they were deploying it to begin with.

In today's dollars, I would be willing to bet it is still about the same if not less.
majortom1029

join:2006-10-19
Lindenhurst, NY
kudos:1

wow

In a lot of Verizon dsl markets they will be handing cable a monopoly. If they get their way they will drop dsl in the markets that do not have fios and users only option will be cable internet.

I would hope the fcc will make Verizon upgrade to fiber but the FCC is not smart enough to do that.

IowaCowboy
Want to go back to Iowa
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join:2010-10-16
Springfield, MA
Reviews:
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2 recommendations

Maybe they'll see the light

Maybe they'll see the light and convert the rest of their existing markets to FiOS since they seem to be unable to sell those markets (as the deals with frontier and FairPoint went over like a lead balloon) and they'll force the rest of their customers on to FiOS. Then they will have a strong case to shut down copper.

Maybe if they are willing to offer equal or better service, then they'll be able to make a stronger case to regulators for a copper sunset.

I support a copper sunset but ONLY if they are willing to offer equal or better wireline service. And I've heard that VZW and Xfinity are parting ways in their co-marketing agreement. Maybe that's a hint at future FiOS expansion.
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FreeBSDuser

join:2013-05-15
Somers, NY

1 recommendation

Re: Maybe they'll see the light

You have a good point here. The regulators should say that AT&T and Verizon can dump copper if they deploy fiber in the places where they're dumping copper, instead of increasing prices so people switch to cable internet.

But if AT&T and Verizon still don't want to expand their fiber networks, they should sell it to municipalities, and then lease the fiber from the municipalities for U-Verse and FiOS.
Skippy25

join:2000-09-13
Hazelwood, MO

1 recommendation

Re: Maybe they'll see the light

I would agree to a point but I would give them a date to complete it by before imposing some penalties.

Remember, it was the teleco's themselves that stated way back in 96 that they would deploy fiber and 45/45mbps would be the standard. Almost 20 years later and after we gave them hundreds of billions of dollars they really haven't done crap in the over all picture.

n2jtx

join:2001-01-13
Glen Head, NY

No Savings For Me

I had not priced FiOS out and I am surprised to see it is $70 (non-promo price as I do not care about temporary promotions) for 15mbps service. Cablevision is serving me with 18/5 service for $54.95 plus I get access to their WiFi network. I am not sure how FiOS is competitive in my area with those kinds of prices.
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•••

dvd536
as Mr. Pink as they come
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join:2001-04-27
Phoenix, AZ
kudos:4

Cherry pick. . .

and pay the fines
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if you don't have it, you ain't gettin' it.[unless you move]
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OSUGoose

join:2007-12-27
Columbus, OH

Gee

Imagine that, upgrading your network saves you money in the long run.
Bengie25

join:2010-04-22
Wisconsin Rapids, WI

1 edit

Re: Gee

What are you talking about? Think of all the money Google could save if they used those unwanted vacuum tubes? Operational costs be damned, all that matters is not wasting money on capital investment.
videobruce

join:2002-05-14
Buffalo, NY
Nah, don't believe that. Corporations don't, why spend money on their plant. There are more vacations to take and more jets to buy to get there.
horseathalt7

join:2012-06-11
Reviews:
·DIRECTV

Criminal GREED.

I would agree to a point but I would give them a date to complete it by before imposing some penalties.

Remember, it was the teleco's themselves that stated way back in 96 that they would deploy fiber and 45/45mbps would be the standard. Almost 20 years later and after we gave them hundreds of billions of dollars they really haven't done crap in the overall picture.

linicx
Caveat Emptor
Premium
join:2002-12-03
United State
Reviews:
·TracFone Wireless
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DSL/Copper?

Is not dead in rural America. It is very much alive and viable.What is cannot do is deliver a substantial speed in the farthest corner from the plant.

FCCs real job is to support the Telecommunications Act that requires telephone companies to maintain communications from coast to coast.

Despite the spin Verizon is a telephone company. It started with a PBX in Wisconsin nearly a century ago. It still controls a few thousand miles of copper. Sandy Hook, NJ., anyone?

If Verizon does not wish to live up to its obligations, then it should get out of the telephone business all together, and become the great cord cutter. messiah. BTW, VZN does not perform in AT&T land.

IMHO, none of these wireless companies will be more than a big pile of PR SPIN until they all use the same technology. Only then will wireless e911 be 100% viable and reliable across all America. And so will the phones.

There won't be any proprietary areas where your phone won't work but mine will.
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mathstudent

@comcast.net

checking the math...

A presumably credible Verizon spokesperson says that converting 300,000 DSL lines saves 600,000 truck rolls in one year. Assuming 1 truck role to install FIOS, I cslculate that the average Vertizon DSL line requires 3 truck rolls per year to maintain - can it be so? Seems quite high from both customer satisfaction and I expect from Verizon financial perspectives.