site Search:


 
   
story category
Exaflood Creator Crafts New, Equally Pointless Nonsense
Beware the 'Exacloud?'
by Karl Bode Monday 03-May-2010 tags: business · alternatives · bandwidth · net-neutrality
Remember the "Exaflood"? the idea that if you don't give carriers whatever they'd like (less regulation, no net neutrality laws, no price controls, huge subsidies and tax credits, less consumer protection, metered billing) the Internet will grind to a halt and we'll all be crying over our clogged tubes? The concept has been debunked countless times by real network traffic analysis that suggests Internet growth is not only reasonable, it's easily managed by smart network engineers and just modest network investment.

The exaflood simply never arrived -- because it isn't real.

The term was first coined by Bret Swanson in a 2007 Wall Street Journal editorial, when Swanson was employed by The Discovery Institute (who in turn was employed by major carriers). With the Exaflood debunked as a concept not even remotely close to a scientific term, it was apparently time for Swanson (now offering his "services" directly to carriers) to craft some new scare-mongering nonsense. Ars Technica directs our attention to the fact that Swanson has apparently decided to rename the Exaflood for the cloud computing age. Says Swanson in an FCC filing (pdf):

We are intrigued by one particular innovation just around the corner. Call it online gaming. Call it cloud streaming. We call it the “exacloud.” It is cloud computing but of a scope and scale never seen before . . . This exacloud will transform video games, movies, virtual worlds, business software, and most other media. Piracy goes away. So do DVDs, game boxes, and maybe even expensive personal computers. . . This new paradigm generates enormous amounts of Internet traffic.

Of course this "new paradigm" is no different from the old one -- Swanson simply put a new coat of paint on his old claim that the bandwidth apocalypse is coming. Nothing in Swanson's "new" argument magically eliminates the fact that bandwidth growth remains reasonable and manageable -- whether it's being generated by cloud computing or magic unicorns. Swanson even goes so far as to use the very MINTs data traditionally used to debunk his previous claims -- as the cornerstone for his new ones.

view: topics flat text 
Post a:

BBBanditRuR
Dingbits

join:2009-06-02
Parachute, CO

Daft

I could kind of see if you were hit in the head, and magically transported to some future reality where the bandwidth needs of 2060 would not hold up in 2010, but then that's just crazy talk.
--
Listen...do you smell something?
gorehound

join:2009-06-19
Portland, ME

Re: Daft

Swanson has no brain.it has lost to the exaflood.the exacloud must of affected his synapses.

Pale_Rider

join:2004-10-18
South Ozone Park, NY

Re: Daft

said by gorehound:

Swanson has no brain.it has lost to the exaflood.the exacloud must of affected his synapses.
He's been affected by the cloud of ash from that volcano in Iceland.

DaveDude
No Fear

join:1999-09-01
New Jersey
kudos:1

yawn

So someone published something , unpopular, breaking news...

Romney2012
Defeat Obama 2012-Chg we can believe in
Premium
join:2002-03-03
USA
kudos:4

1 edit

Anyone, besides MINT, provide traffic analysis?

I would be more impressed with those saying massive bandwidth demands aren't coming if they could site a source other than MINT. Every story I have ever read on the subject uses that 1 source for their proof. No offense to the Univ of Minnesota, but a more widespread source of proof would be comforting.
--
Are you happy with your rep in Washington, DC?
jus10

join:2009-08-04
Sterling, VA

Paradigm

I, as a rule, disregard anything with the word "Paradigm" as being from some "analyst" playing buzzword bingo. That is to say, complete and utter nonsense.

DeathK
Premium
join:2002-06-16
Cincinnati, OH

Re: Paradigm

Exactly.

Sensationalistic BS.

El Quintron
... a faint odor of kerosene
Premium
join:2008-04-28
Etobicoke, ON
kudos:2
Reviews:
·TekSavvy DSL
·voip.ms
·WIND Mobile
·TekSavvy Cable

Selling white noise

I don't think it really matters if this is real or not. Swanson is selling a bunch of talking points that regulators and such won't have time to verify anyways.

I think Mark Goldberg coined it best when he said: "This is meant to be used as supplemental research"

Translation: "Feed these lines to someone who doesn't know you're talking about. It sounds legit."

Incumbent telecom policies work; rah rah rah...
--
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
jacour
Premium
join:2001-12-11
Matthews, NC

Let's see

If users create an "exa-cloud" with no bandwidth to support it the cloud will have lags, slow speeds, and generally crappy performance. Doesn't that, in itself, limit the growth of demand to what the network can support?
nasadude

join:2001-10-05
Rockville, MD
Reviews:
·Verizon FiOS

astroturf never dies

you can't kill astroturf. and even though it doesn't need it, it is constantly fertilized with BS.

you can stab it, burn it, prove it's a lie, embarrass them with the facts, prove they're morons and more and still astroturf will not die. once it's out there, astroturf "facts" never go away. at best, they will slink away to the darkness, only to be resurrected weeks, months, even years after they have been debunked.

the people that do this have no shame and they are paid very well to do what they do.
nutcr0cker

join:2003-04-02
Chandler, AZ
kudos:2

Re: astroturf never dies

He can be a great faux news contributor

billy888

@gci.net

Re: astroturf never dies

He mean an MSNBC commentator?
sonicmerlin

join:2009-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:1

Re: astroturf never dies

said by billy888 :

He mean an MSNBC commentator?
MSNBC doesn't lie outright anywhere close to as much as Fox. Fox is pure political spin and deceit.
NormanS
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-14
San Jose, CA
kudos:4
Reviews:
·SONIC.NET
·Pacific Bell - SBC

Re: astroturf never dies

said by sonicmerlin:

Fox is pure political spin and deceit.
Only if you spin the other way!
--
Norman
~Oh Lord, why have you come
~To Konnyu, with the Lion and the Drum

sivran
Back to Opera again
Premium
join:2003-09-15
Arlington, TX
kudos:1
Reviews:
·RoadRunner Cable

Swanson has learned well

I see Swanson has learned well from his former masters at the Discovery Institute. When one lie doesn't work, dress it up as something else and call it new and different.
--
So I'm pretty much disappointed with both political parties. Yeah.
TheMG
Premium
join:2007-09-04
Canada
kudos:1
Reviews:
·TekSavvy DSL

Yeah right...

"This exacloud will transform video games, movies, virtual worlds, business software, and most other media. Piracy goes away. So do DVDs, game boxes, and maybe even expensive personal computers. . ."

Remind me again, what is the average speed of a residential internet connection in North America?

I don't think we'll see optical disc media being replaced by "the cloud" any time soon. Games? Well there's this thing called ping/latency, who wants that in single-player games? "Expensive" personal computer going away? Yeah right.

Cloud computing on a massive scale is a pipe dream.

Exacloud... debunked.
tmc8080

join:2004-04-24
Brooklyn, NY
Reviews:
·Optimum Online
·Verizon FiOS

the lie that continues to give lobbyists a job

the internet infrastructure that gave tier-1 providers a lucrative market and last mile isp's a MON/DUOPOLY for internet access is fully manageable without significant upgrades for the foreseeable future. what was NOT specifically intended or foreseen was a fiber optic line going to each customer premesis or deep fiber backhaul for cable nodes. both the telcos & cable industry are guilty of perpetuating lies upon government and consumers alike for at least various reasons including the fact that the nature of broadband would cannibalize both companies core businesses. for cable it's the video business and for telco it's the voice business (landline aka Plain Old Telephone service). the more radical approach by telcos including selling off UNPROFITABLE geographies correllate to the loss of millions of POTS lines to VOIP from all other carriers.

how likely is the cable industry to be FIRST at making the next generation tiers of 50 & 100+ megabits affordable to the masses? especially when there is a projection for 1 in 8 customers to cancel cable-tv subscriptions.

that wedge which was supposed to be competition is a mere egg shell. a broken / fractured one at that.

Monday, 04-Jun 16:57:06 Terms of Use & Privacy | feedback | contact | Hosting by nac.net - DSL,Hosting & Co-lo
over 12.5 years online © 1999-2012 dslreports.com.