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story category Exaflood Creator Hard At Work Crafting New Nonsense
Discovery Institute's Bret Swanson back with new pseudo-science...
09:26AM Thursday Jul 09 2009 by Karl Bode
tags: business · bandwidth · Op/Ed · networking
Telephony Online un-skeptically points to a new report by a new think tank named Entropy Economics, which magically assumes the organic growth in bandwidth capacity means we don't need a national broadband policy. Because available consumer bandwidth reached 717 terabits per second at the end of 2008 (or a per-capita average of 2.4 megabits per second), we've apparently cured all of our broadband problems. The "study" strangely tries to argue this growth means critics of our non-existent broadband policy are somehow wrong:
Do U.S. citizens live in a Webified wonderland? Or do they suffer through a digital Dark Age? Several new reports make the dismal Dark Age case, where a faulty broadband policy has starved us of communications power and the educational and economic enlightenment it might bring. But the testimony of many "BlackBerry orphans," "blogginghead" pundits, Web workers, and telepresent tweeting tweens suggested otherwise.

Of course nobody in the sector's arguing we're in the digital dark ages, though there's plenty arguing that we could do much better. The new "study's" author, Bret Swanson, takes this logic a step further when complaining to Telephony Online about how it's unfair to pick on the brilliant progress we've made in the broadband sector:
"The idea that has been thrown around – mostly by groups that may want much heavier regulation of the whole communications media space -- that we live in some sort of digital dark age is not remotely true."
What Telephony Online doesn't tell you, and they probably should, is that Swanson is a pseudo-scientist at the Discovery Institute, which is subsidized by telecom carriers to make the case for deregulation at all costs. The Discovery Institute is essentially a PR firm that will present farmed science and manipulated statistics for any donating constituents looking to make a political point.

They're well known for their work for the evangelical sector in crafting the term "intelligent design," which is used to legitimize creationism as a scientific concept worthy of belonging in science-based classrooms. They're more recently known for creating the term "exaflood," or the idea that unless you give telecom carriers what they want (deregulation, subsidies, the elimination of price controls), the Internet will grind to a halt under the strain of unmanageable growth. The concept has been disproven repeatedly as political junk science.

That hasn't slowed Swanson from his mission -- his new "Entropy Economics" organization was created last March with the idea of further polluting the telecom sector with exaflood rhetoric. The Discovery Institute's tech blog helps create an echo chamber for the meaningless metrics, praising Swanson's findings as "fascinating," arguing that since people use the bandwidth available to them, we clearly don't need a national broadband policy.

All of this makes Swanson's whining about "groups that want heavier regulation" disingenuous, given men like Swanson just got done seeing more than a decade of sustained deregulation in the telecom sector thanks in large part to his own lobbying. The result was the United States setting new records for being thoroughly mediocre, given American consumers pay more money for less bandwidth than a significant number of developed countries.

The reality is, and always has been, that some regulation is good, and some is bad, with each effort requiring debate on its particular merits. Paid deregulatory zealots, blindly following their wallets and the calling of their handlers, are the primary reason the nation is one of very few with no substantive broadband policy whatsoever. The blind deregulation ship has sailed, with or without Mr. Swanson and his team of public relation magicians. If he runs, perhaps he can catch it and save us from another decade of pseudo-scientific nonsense.

Related:
  1. The Exaflood Myth Just Won't Die
  2. New Docs Show FCC Glossed Over BPL Flaws
  3. ISPs Distance Themselves From British Telecom
  4. Verizon App Store To Block Bandwidth-Intensive Apps
  5. Google Voice Ban Is Clear Network Neutrality Violation
  6. Exaflood Pseudo-Scientists Need A New Gimmick
  7. Neutrality Rules Won't Impact Investment
  8. There's Still No Evidence That Metered Billing Is Necessary
Forums » Exaflood Creator Hard At Work Crafting New Nonsense
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digitalfreak

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Wow

A paid shill spouting BS? That NEVER happens.

/sarcasm
jester121
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Re: Wow

Karl gets paid, doesn't he?

hayabusa3303
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Re: Wow

said by jester121 See Profile :

Karl gets paid, doesn't he?
He does it not because of money, he is bored and likes to watch all of us, take it to the next level in arguing back and forth.

Serious tho i dont know, justin might have a insight on that tho.

Personally i think Karl does a great job at the news.

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The era of the Scientific Sounding Lobbyist

I would never, ever trust anything that came from people who were associated with intelligent design.

The fact that the firm isn't even trying to hide the fact that it was in cahoots with intelligent design says enough about them already.
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pnh102
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No Policy Needed

We don't need a "National Broadband Policy" but not because of anything that Discovery Institute says.

We've had robust growth and deployment of broadband in most areas of the country in the past 10 years, almost all of which was a result of private sector investment. All of this was done without the involvement of the federal government. These deployments continue to this day again without any involvement from the federal government.
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DaveNJ
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Re: No Policy Needed

I agree , the current goverment wants to spend all the money it can, Three is no need for a broad band policy. There needs to be a Spending Reduction policy.

Matt
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said by pnh102 See Profile :

We don't need a "National Broadband Policy" but not because of anything that Discovery Institute says.

We've had robust growth and deployment of broadband in most areas of the country in the past 10 years, almost all of which was a result of private sector investment. All of this was done without the involvement of the federal government. These deployments continue to this day again without any involvement from the federal government.
Yes, we have had robust deployment ... of 10 year old technology. It's time the government stepped in and either forced the private sector to deploy the latest technology or do it themselves. Otherwise we face becoming a technology backwater country as the vast majority of broadband available is not adequate and needs to be advanced at a rate that maintains pace (or exceeds) other countries.

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Re: No Policy Needed

said by Matt See Profile :

Yes, we have had robust deployment ... of 10 year old technology.
FIOS is 10 years old? Even cable modem speeds and traditional DSL speeds are increasing. The end user doesn't care what the technology is on the other end of the connection as long as it works as he or she expects it to work.
said by Matt See Profile :

It's time the government stepped in and either forced the private sector to deploy the latest technology or do it themselves.
The feds did this with ethanol. Have you seen what's happened to the price of anything made with corn lately? We're about to see the same thing happen with wind and solar power. All of these are pie-in-the-sky fantasyland technologies that are only "cheap" when the proven solutions that they are intented to replace are expensive.
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Re: No Policy Needed

said by pnh102 See Profile :

said by Matt See Profile :

Yes, we have had robust deployment ... of 10 year old technology.
FIOS is 10 years old? Even cable modem speeds and traditional DSL speeds are increasing. The end user doesn't care what the technology is on the other end of the connection as long as it works as he or she expects it to work.
said by Matt See Profile :

It's time the government stepped in and either forced the private sector to deploy the latest technology or do it themselves.
The feds did this with ethanol. Have you seen what's happened to the price of anything made with corn lately? We're about to see the same thing happen with wind and solar power. All of these are pie-in-the-sky fantasyland technologies that are only "cheap" when the proven solutions that they are intented to replace are expensive.
Aside from FiOS and surgical DOCSIS 3.0 deployments, yes, we're dealing with 10-year old technology. AT&T is milking DSL and Time Warner is still DOCSIS 1.1.

I have no idea about your corn analogy, but I doubt it's even remotely similar.
me1212

join:2008-11-20
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Re: No Policy Needed

At least they are doing VDSL in some places, I think they should switch to VSDL2, but still it beats nothing.

pnh102
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said by Matt See Profile :

Aside from FiOS and surgical DOCSIS 3.0 deployments, yes, we're dealing with 10-year old technology. AT&T is milking DSL and Time Warner is still DOCSIS 1.1.
And why are these bad things? There is absolutely nothing wrong with milking an existing technology to its usable limits.
said by Matt See Profile :

I have no idea about your corn analogy, but I doubt it's even remotely similar.
Ethanol as a motor vehicle fuel exists because the US government decided that it should. It costs much more to make than ordinary gasoline and is less powerful. Because it also requires a lot of corn to produce, it raises demand, and therefore the price, of corn and anything else made with corn.

I mention it because any government-mandated standard for broadband will have the same result. My guess is that a lot of smaller ISPs will simply throw in the towel because they won't be able to deploy to mandated standards, and the bigger ISPs will simply buy themselves protections in any standard that is mandated.
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Matt
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Re: No Policy Needed

said by pnh102 See Profile :

said by Matt See Profile :

Aside from FiOS and surgical DOCSIS 3.0 deployments, yes, we're dealing with 10-year old technology. AT&T is milking DSL and Time Warner is still DOCSIS 1.1.
And why are these bad things? There is absolutely nothing wrong with milking an existing technology to its usable limits.
said by Matt See Profile :

I have no idea about your corn analogy, but I doubt it's even remotely similar.
Ethanol as a motor vehicle fuel exists because the US government decided that it should. It costs much more to make than ordinary gasoline and is less powerful. Because it also requires a lot of corn to produce, it raises demand, and therefore the price, of corn and anything else made with corn.

I mention it because any government-mandated standard for broadband will have the same result. My guess is that a lot of smaller ISPs will simply throw in the towel because they won't be able to deploy to mandated standards, and the bigger ISPs will simply buy themselves protections in any standard that is mandated.
Ethanol is not the ubiquitous fuel. So that analogy doesn't mean much to me. If the government decided to subsidize corn farmers even further by requiring ethanol, so what? They mix it with gasoline here in NC in the winter months to reduce emissions. So there is a use for other than usage as a lone fuel.

And you're right about milking a technology to its usable limits. We passed the limit of DOCSIS 1.1 and DSL years ago. That's why we're right above Estonia (I think) in broadband price per megabit while other industrialized nations are enjoying super-fast internet connections for less than we pay for a couple mbps.

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said by pnh102 See Profile :

Ethanol as a motor vehicle fuel exists because the US government decided that it should. It costs much more to make than ordinary gasoline and is less powerful.
Ok Off topic but I need to comment here.

Ethanol's existed well before the US Govt decided to get behind it. It does use more energy to create in the form we make it today, but that does not have to be the case.

By the way, ethanol is NOT less powerful than gasoline. That's pure fabrication, just ask the folks who outfitted a Z06 to run ethanol as the pace car for the Indy 500 or perhaps the Corvette team in ALMS who's run ethanol for several years now. At least for the pace car, they got more HP out of the ethanol conversion, and that's coming from the Vette engineers directly.
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said by pnh102 See Profile :

We don't need a "National Broadband Policy" but not because of anything that Discovery Institute says.

We've had robust growth and deployment of broadband in most areas of the country in the past 10 years, almost all of which was a result of private sector investment. All of this was done without the involvement of the federal government. These deployments continue to this day again without any involvement from the federal government.
We do need regulation to keep the internet fair, neutral, and unlimited.

The problem is ISPs also sell TV and phone services which means they will cripple the internet connections they have through monopolies and duopolies to protect the TV and phone services they sell.

We either need regulation or force all ISPs to not sell any other service that could encourage them to limit their internet connections for protection.
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Re: No Policy Needed

said by r81984 See Profile :

We do need regulation to keep the internet fair, neutral, and unlimited.
Agreed. But this isn't really a "policy" as described in the article, it is more of the government acting in its existing enforcement capacity.
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Talis

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Re: No Policy Needed

Without a national broadband policy what exactly would they be enforcing?

pnh102
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Re: No Policy Needed

said by Talis See Profile :

Without a national broadband policy what exactly would they be enforcing?
There hasn't been any national broadband policy regarding deployment and service levels and yet government at all levels has been able to enforce existing net neutrality laws. I am simply arguing that a new policy that mandates deployment and service levels is not needed because private ISPs continue to expand services.
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sonicmerlin

join:2009-05-24
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Re: No Policy Needed

I'm not sure why I'm replying to your comments, since you've demonstrated your blind bias over and over again, but..

Countries like Canada and Australia have demonstrated what happens when a government blindly pursues deregulation in an industry with no plan. The countries have become backwaters in terms of broadband.

pnh102
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Re: No Policy Needed

said by sonicmerlin See Profile :

I'm not sure why I'm replying to your comments ...
You're hoping to experience stopped clock syndrome I would imagine.
said by sonicmerlin See Profile :

Countries like Canada and Australia have demonstrated what happens when a government blindly pursues deregulation in an industry with no plan. The countries have become backwaters in terms of broadband.
LOL.

Australia? If I recall correctly their federal government is quite involved in the planning and control of the Internet as it is deployed in that country. We all know what a disaster that is turning out to be.

As for Canada, the only problem there is that there is too much regulation and once again, connectivity is governed by just one single company. Said company is choking off wholesale access to other ISPs.

Why would you want the same things to happen to Internet service in the USA?
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AstroBoy

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consumer bandwidth consumption reached 717 terabits/second

HOW? Assuming 300,000,000 people, that is an average of 291 KBytes per second per person!

Someone out there is skewing the average!

My math:
717,000,000,000,000/300,000,000/8/1024
8 is to convert from bits to Bytes.
1024 is to convert from Bytes to KBytes.

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3 edits

Re: consumer bandwidth consumption reached 717 terabits/second

said by AstroBoy See Profile :

HOW? Assuming 300,000,000 people, that is an average of 291 KBytes per second per person!

Someone out there is skewing the average!

My math:
717,000,000,000,000/300,000,000/8/1024
8 is to convert from bits to Bytes.
1024 is to convert from Bytes to KBytes.
Did you read the report and the definitions that were part of it? Bandwidth is defined as CAPACITY & not Consumption. Karl added the term consumption(since corrected). That was NOT in the actual report.

»entropyeconomics.com/wp-content/···409c.pdf
We estimate that by the end of 2008, U.S.
consumer bandwidth totaled almost 717 terabits
per second.

An important note: Bandwidth is not the same as data traffic. Bandwidth, for our purposes, is the capacity to
communicate. In other words: how much information, given the capacity of your various communications channels, could you
transmit and receive. Data traffic is a measure of how much information is actually transmitted.
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1 edit

Bingo!

said by Karl :

The reality is, and always has been, that some regulation is good, and some is bad, with each effort requiring debate on its particular merits.
Well said Karl. If left unchecked, corporations will walk all over us to please short-sighted shareholders. If the past 16 years have taught us anything, it's that regulation is absolutely required when we only have one or two companies to choose from. If you strip away the run-away stock market and day-trading fiasco, the Telecom Act of 1996 was a damn good thing for the communications industry.

What screwed it was, yet again, greedy executives.
me1212

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Re: Bingo!

I agree. There is good and there is bad when it come to regulation. Some times regulation is needed and others it is not. If it is needed there should be some, if it is not needed there should not be that certain regulation. The corps should not be allowed to skrew the consumer, but the Gov should not be running the corps.

Hpower
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True. Very good point. Those darn greedy executives.
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doc69
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Why oh why?

I can't get a job, but this asshole gets paid to bullshit. Go figure.

digitalfreak

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Re: Why oh why?

said by doc69 See Profile :

I can't get a job, but this asshole gets paid to bullshit. Go figure.
Maybe you should get a job as a bullshitter. There seems to be plenty of openings in government lobbying.

GlobalMind
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New career.

I think I need to go into the wild wonderful world of pontification. Say something backed up by a bogus institute and get paid for it, praying on the idiocy of the average person.

Good stuff.

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THE Discovery Institute?

Now wait just a cotton-pickin' minute here.

THE Discovery Institute?

The Discovery Institute that spouts creationist bullshit, files fraudulent DMCA claims against youtube videos debunking their bullshit, and otherwise generally strives to retard the progress of science?

THAT Discovery Institute? They're getting involved in this? Well, guess I can't say it isn't a perfect area for them. They are, after all, highly experienced in the art of generating, packaging, and spoon-feeding bullshit to consumers willing and unwilling alike.

Yet another reason to despise them I guess.
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Re: THE Discovery Institute?

The Discovery Institute that spouts creationist bullshit, files fraudulent DMCA claims against youtube videos debunking their bullshit, and otherwise generally strives to retard the progress of science?

THAT Discovery Institute? They're getting involved in this? Well, guess I can't say it isn't a perfect area for them. They are, after all, highly experienced in the art of generating, packaging, and spoon-feeding bullshit to consumers willing and unwilling alike.
They're not just getting involved in it, they created the term exaflood for political impact. But yes, I think you get the point...

sivran
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Re: THE Discovery Institute?

Did you mention their name in previous articles or was I just asleep?

All one has to do then to debunk the exaflood is mention, "Oh yeah, that was the Discovery Institute's idea."
tdouglas22

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Re: THE Discovery Institute?

said by sivran See Profile :

Did you mention their name in previous articles or was I just asleep?

All one has to do then to debunk the exaflood is mention, "Oh yeah, that was the Discovery Institute's idea."
Unfortunately, not enough people are aware of WHO the Discovery Institute is and to make matters worse, once they find out, there are so many who would blindly follow them with no problem.

ugh

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Re: THE Discovery Institute?

I will give them credit for writing the wedge argument. It's all a bunch of garbage, but it worked like a charm.

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Brought to you by: The Discovery Institute, the people who killed science (tm)


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