Saul Hansell of the New York Times today editorializes that the nation doesn't really need a significant national broadband policy, because broadband coverage gaps are "hooey." Hansell, who we talked to personally for a piece largely lambasting FiOS upgrades last August, says significant investment in national infrastructure isn't really necessary. Why? DOCSIS 3.0 will very shortly be available to "19 out of 20 American homes" who'll soon see "Internet service that is faster than any available now anywhere in the world." Continues Hansell:Which would be nice, were it actually true. It sounds like Hansell might be drinking a little too much cable industry insider kool-aid. While it's true that Comcast has promised to wire 100% of their markets with DOCSIS 3.0 by the end of 2010, they represent the pinnacle of DOCSIS 3.0 achievement. And that achievement comes with some caveats: namely that Comcast is charging users $140 or more for 50Mbps service with a 250GB/month cap -- and a fancy new throttling system that slightly cripples your connection should you actually choose to use it.

Meanwhile, most other cable operators are only planning to deploy DOCSIS 3.0 "tactically" (read: not to poor, rural neighborhoods). Time Warner Cable have yet to announce a serious DOCSIS 3.0 upgrade timeline. Charter Communications will probably file for bankruptcy protection next week, and lacks the cash to upgrade to DOCSIS 3.0 -- just like countless smaller carriers across America. Not that DOCSIS 3.0 won't be a welcome upgrade, but Hansell's confidence in the technology as a sector cure all is poured on just a little bit thick:While aided by geography, Japanese carriers already offer 1Gbps fiber connections for prices as low as ¥5,460 (US$51.40) per month, and are already working toward 10Gbps connections. The 160Mbps provided by initial flavors of DOCSIS 3.0 will of course be shared between multiple customers and their respective thirsts for HD content. 1Gbps cable service will eventually happen, but the fact is it's several years away -- while Japan is offering 1Gbps fiber to the home now. It's hard to see how that's "ten times faster" than Japanese broadband.

That's not to say Hansell's wrong about the industry evolving to faster speeds naturally without government involvement -- in some places. Many profitable markets will see significant competition between FiOS and DOCSIS 3.0 cable -- eventually. But many more markets will not -- particularly across rural America. Blue collar cities like Syracuse and Binghamton, NY -- just a few hours northwest of Mr. Hansell's employer, will likely never see full coverage from next-generation broadband. Many are lucky to see 3Mbps DSL or 5Mbps cable.

Rural broadband coverage gaps are not "hooey," DOCSIS 3.0 is not some mystical, magical bullet that makes a substantive national broadband plan unnecessary, and blind faith in carrier promises is precisely why we currently trail more than a dozen countries (latest OECD data) in broadband speed, availability, and price.