Leichtman: 2008 Slowest Broadband Year EverSubscriber additions down as new trends emerge... ( old news - 12:34PM Monday Mar 09 2009) tags: competition · business · statsWhile not too surprising given a saturated market and the financial situation, the latest numbers from Leichtman Research indicate that the 5.4 million new broadband subscribers in 2008 were down from 8.5 million in 2007, and a peak of 10.4 million in 2006. It was a good year for cable companies, who added 59% (3.2 million) of all broadband additions in 2008, while phone companies added 2.2 million -- something largely driven by faster cable speeds and cable's success selling a true triple play (VoIP for the win). It's interesting to note that while cable dominated the year, phone companies added 570,000 subscribers to cable's 460,000 in the fourth quarter, suggesting a boom in telco subscriber additions thanks to investment in Verizon FiOS and AT&T U-Verse. If growth patterns had maintained course through the fourth quarter, Comcast would have surpassed AT&T as the nation's largest broadband carrier. Instead, in large part thanks to a boost in U-Verse subscribers, AT&T ended the year with 15,077,000 subscribers to Comcast's 14,929,000. Phone company network infrastructure upgrades, which many telecom investors spent the last few years whining about incessantly, are the primary reason for that reversal of fortune. They're also a major reason why AT&T and Verizon are weathering the recession, despite some predictions to the contrary. Next up for the phone industry: attempting to battle the phenomenal success the cable industry has had with VoIP. Both AT&T and Verizon have major new VoIP plans in the pipeline for 2009. As for you consumers, you can expect an increased push this year toward metered billing models, as investors look for ways to grow revenues to counter slower subscriber growth. Related:- Wednesday Evening Links
- Cable TV Losing 1 Million Customers A Year
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- Higher Prices, Recession Can't Stop Broadband Growth
- 5 Signs Our Broadband Plan May Already Be In Trouble
- A Milder Cable Rate Hike Season Is Coming
- JD Power's Latest ISP Ratings
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  BF69
join:2004-07-28 Camden, TN | Well not shocking when ISPs don't want to expand out into areas that currently don't have broadband because they deem them not profitable enough. Last time I checked profit is profit. If I make $1 from a million people I still make $1 mil. | |
|  |   funchords Hello Premium,MVM join:2001-03-11 Washington, DC
·Verizon Online DSL
·Skype
| Re: Well not shocking said by BF69 :when ISPs don't want to expand out into areas that currently don't have broadband because they deem them not profitable enough. Last time I checked profit is profit. If I make $1 from a million people I still make $1 mil. This is 100% the problem -- why spend $100-1000 per subscriber to add a new service area when you can spend $50-200 per subscriber to entice them away from the other neighborhood duopolist?
Karl, I still don't think metered billing will catch on. Any ISP who thinks that consumers will prefer their faster metered service over a slower unmetered one is dead wrong. -- Robb Topolski -= funchords.com =- Hillsboro, Oregon -- KJ7RL ... Do something! ... | |
|  |  |   Eat Me
join:2002-09-25 Sussex, NJ | Re: Well not shocking Sadly, I prefer the faster metered one.
Embarq only offers 5mbps here.
I have to pay $10 more for "dry" DSL or get a POTS line
ADSL2 only offers 896k upload. Cable currently offers me 2M upload. | |
|  |  |  |  me1212
join:2008-11-20 Pleasant Hill, MO | Re: Well not shocking Wait till they start charging crazy metering fees and then it costs you over 2x what the embarq will. in this mess metering may have a boot start, but when other come along with no meter for quite a bit less the no meters will win. | |
|  |  |  |  |   Eat Me
join:2002-09-25 Sussex, NJ 1 edit | Re: Well not shocking The cap is 100Gig and they charge $1/Gig over.
It's 60 gig if you have a 10m connection (I have 30).
The point is that I have to choose between the lesser of two evils, not the service I want, which would be something like 50/20 FiOS. | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  me1212
join:2008-11-20 Pleasant Hill, MO | Re: Well not shocking I agree if you cannot get what u want, get the closest thing. | |
|  |   Big Pete 82
join:2009-01-30 Corona, CA | While profit may be profit, its also about ROI. If it takes 25 years for an area to become profitable, and there is very little profit when it does finally become profitable, its just not worth it. | |
|  |  |  Skippy25
join:2000-09-13 Hazelwood, MO
1 edit | Re: Well not shocking Depends on how you look at that. Fiber is a very long term investment that requires a lot less maintenance and is cheaper in the long term.
If copper was seen as profitable 100 years ago, fiber can be seen as profitable now.
Keep in mind the telco's have received well over $200 billion dollars in incentives since 1996 to build this fiber network to everyone that THEY promised would bring 45Mbps symmetrical to everyone for around $40-$50 a month. To this date the only one really doing that is Verizon (though they arent near the price point) and I don't even think they have burned through the money they stole from the PA tax payers yet. | |
|  |  |  Stumbles
join:2002-12-17 Port Saint Lucie, FL | With kind of reasoning, the Pilgrims would have never taken a boat ride. | |
|  |  |   BF69
join:2004-07-28 Camden, TN
| said by Big Pete 82 :While profit may be profit, its also about ROI. If it takes 25 years for an area to become profitable, and there is very little profit when it does finally become profitable, its just not worth it. So who cares if it takes 25 years? Are they planning on being in business for only 25 years? What if the electric and phone companies had that attitude? I'm sure it took many years to break even. Gues what 50+ years later they're sure glad they took that 25 year loss now aren't they? How many tens if not hundreds of BILLIONS have they made? | |
|  |  |  |   Big Pete 82
join:2009-01-30 Corona, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| Re: Well not shocking If it takes 25 years and the profit is high that is one thing, but if after 25 years the profit is still very low then it is not worth it.
Look at it from a personal perspective. Lets say you have $1000 dollars and you have a business model that will return you $25 profit after 2 years, is it really worth it? Probably not. There are probably a lot of other things you could be investing your $1000 dollars with that would return you a greater return on your investment.
I know it maybe hard for you to believe, but everyday people like you and I actually invest their hard earned dollars in companies like Verizon so that they can share in their profits in the form of dividends and a rising share price. If Verizon is going to be able to continue to grow their earnings (or keep it reasonably flat in this economy), they have to invest in business models that provide growth and profitability. Pouring billions into rural areas for very little return on investment down the road, IF ANY, is just not a sound business decision. | |
|  |  |  |  |   BF69
join:2004-07-28 Camden, TN
| Re: Well not shocking said by Big Pete 82 :If it takes 25 years and the profit is high that is one thing, but if after 25 years the profit is still very low then it is not worth it. Look at it from a personal perspective. Lets say you have $1000 dollars and you have a business model that will return you $25 profit after 2 years, is it really worth it? Probably not. There are probably a lot of other things you could be investing your $1000 dollars with that would return you a greater return on your investment. I know it maybe hard for you to believe, but everyday people like you and I actually invest their hard earned dollars in companies like Verizon so that they can share in their profits in the form of dividends and a rising share price. If Verizon is going to be able to continue to grow their earnings (or keep it reasonably flat in this economy), they have to invest in business models that provide growth and profitability. Pouring billions into rural areas for very little return on investment down the road, IF ANY, is just not a sound business decision. Once again with your attitude ther would be places that still would not have electricity ot POTS lines. And the electric and phone companies would have lost out on hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars because of thie shortsited ways. And also this country would be even worse off. No way would could ever have been the world's #1 economy as long as we had parts that were wrose off than the 3rd world.
The fact is no one an say they WON'T make a huge profit after 25 years. Maybe an are now doesn't have a lot of people who know in 25 years it may have 20 times the population. I'l give you a perfect example.
Spirng Hill Tn. In 1980 it had less than 1000 people. In fact in 1940 the population was only 500. So there's no way one would predict that by 2007 the population would be 23,500. In fact just since 2000 the poulation has gone from 7100 to 23,500. So maybe in 2000 the "experts" would have guess that if the population only increased nominally it would only ever be break even proposistion. So they decided not to build out. Well look how wrong they are. And now it's going to cost more than it would have 8 years ago. Heck within a decade this town could easily be 50,000-75,000 people. You wouldn't have guessed that even just 10 years ago. | |
|  |  |  |  |  |   Big Pete 82
join:2009-01-30 Corona, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| Re: Well not shocking You must know something the people running these multibillion dollar ISPs don't. Maybe you and a group of your buddies should get together and start up an ISP that serves these "highly profitable" rural areas and make billions. Trust me, you wouldn't have any competition... | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |   BF69
join:2004-07-28 Camden, TN
| Re: Well not shocking said by Big Pete 82 :You must know something the people running these multibillion dollar ISPs don't. Considering that these companies are losing money left and right. Hell I can buy a share of stock of Charter for a dime. So yeah maybe it do.
I mean it's funny that the music companies are multi billion $ companies and everyone seems to think they are run by idiots with the way the RIAA is. So are "normal" people sometimes smarter than CEOs? um yeah. | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |   Big Pete 82
join:2009-01-30 Corona, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| Re: Well not shocking Go try out your slam dunk business model and come back in 25 years and rub my face in it... Charter is about the only major ISP losing any money right now, Verizon, Comcast, At&t, Cox, etc are sailing right through this recession like it never happened. | |
|  |  |  |   d_l Barsoom Premium,MVM join:2002-12-08 Reno, NV
| Let's say it's 25 years of losses or minimal profits and the ISPs break out into the big profits! I guarantee you there will be some government entity-political party at the end of that 25 years screaming about unfair windfall profits and how they should be taxed -- "for the children, for the suffering minorities, for climate warming, for climate cooling, for the empire some weaselly bureaucrat/politician is building/amassing". They will be touting all the fictitious and urban-myth subsidies the ISPs have supposedly received over all those years as justification for the profit grab. | |
|  |   screavic Premium join:2006-08-11 Paron, AR | I agree...
1/4 Mile from Comcast 3 miles from AT&T
Neither will touch this area and they beat around the bush when discussing it with them. Even when I mentioned paying for the DSLAM | |
|  |  |  me1212
join:2008-11-20 Pleasant Hill, MO | Re: Well not shocking I understand dude, I am about 3 mi from embarq. But at leats the WISP I use now has no cap or meter. | |
|  |  |  |   Eat Me
join:2002-09-25 Sussex, NJ | Re: Well not shocking There's a WISP close to where I live but they only offer 3M connectivity and it varies with weather. What does yours offer? | |
|  |  |  |  |  me1212
join:2008-11-20 Pleasant Hill, MO
·VOIPo
| Re: Well not shocking Mine offers 512/128 for $55, 768/256 for $85, 1024/512 for $140(free static IP can host servers hot spot Authorized), and 1536/1024 for $320(dedicated connection)(2 free static IPs can host servers hot spot Authorized)
»kcweb.net/wireless/ And only thunderstorms strong hail lots of sleet and a blizzard "hurt" it, they make a spray that can lessen the weather impact I hear.
Its cost a lot, but it is a solid as a rock I could post a tracer it you want. and speed is 507 96% of the time, so at least I get most of what I past for most of the time. | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  tx_tower
join:2007-11-13 Blanco, TX
| Re: Well not shocking a WISP is a viable last mile solution, while the speeds wont be anywhere near the fiber or cable networks for the same price, providing a usable high speed connection for a reasonable price is extremly doable, and the WISP industry and move much faster, 50-100 miles a day 
@me1212 those prices seem quite high but then again who knows how much the WISP is getting gouged for on bandwidth from the big boys. | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  me1212
join:2008-11-20 Pleasant Hill, MO | Re: Well not shocking They serve like 1/6 of the state, so there is a large cost, and they try to make sure you get like 90% of what you pay for as much as they can, so it costs a lot. | |
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