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Netflix CEO: We'll All Have Gigabit Connections In Ten Years
Except Not

Netflix is now the nation's largest video subscription service and controls more than 65% of the digital video distribution market. As the company transitions from physical disks to streaming video, decent broadband will be an absolute necessity -- which is why Netflix has started speaking out against the dangers low caps and high overages pose to content innovation and adoption. The company's also now getting into the broadband tea reading business, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings telling Wired Business Conference attendees that he believes everybody in the country will have 1 Gigabit connections within the next ten years:

quote:
The problem, says Hastings in an interview today at the Wired business conference, was that back then they couldn’t stream movies over 56K modems. But there was Moore’s Law and improvements in bandwidth which could be plotted, and that is exactly what Hastings did. “We took out our spreadsheets and we figured we’d get 14 megabits/sec to the home by 2012, which turns out is about what we will get.” So what does his spreadsheet tell him about the next ten years? “If you drag it out to 2021, we will all have a gigabit to the home."
It's not clear which broadband market Hastings is referring to, because it certainly isn't ours. The latest FCC data states that 60% of U.S. broadband connections don't even surpass 4 Mbps, much less the 12 Mbps Hastings suggests has arrived for all. Millions of Americans still live in markets with no competition, and as such have the choice of only one carrier. Companies that plan on nursing copper over the next decade because they have the luxury to do so (like Frontier Communications) will be hard-pressed to ever deliver gigabit connectivity on any real scale.

As we noted when the FCC announced their empty goal of bringing 100 Mbps service to 100 million homes, DOCSIS 3.0 makes upgrading a third to a half of the population relatively inexpensive and easy. However, rural and uncompetitive markets are something else entirely. Consider you've got companies like Time Warner Cable that lag on upgrades, but lobby to pass laws making it harder for communities to wire themselves if they're unsatisfied with service from the private sector.

So while some users may see Gigabit speeds by 2021 (be it via Google fiber, Verizon, or Comcast), there's no high-speed remedy in sight for millions of subscribers who reside in broken and uncompetitive markets while regulators nap. Meanwhile, if ISP executives and investors get their way, we'll all be paying a flat dollar per gigabyte by the time 2021 rolls around.
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Duramax08
To The Moon
Premium Member
join:2008-08-03
San Antonio, TX

1 recommendation

Duramax08

Premium Member

And in ten years

There will be no such things as caps.

/sarcasm.

Tokidoki
Premium Member
join:2002-08-26
South Richmond Hill, NY

1 recommendation

Tokidoki

Premium Member

Re: And in ten years

It clearly must be a mistake! He must have meant 2121, not 2021.

Radio Active
My pappy's a pistol
Premium Member
join:2003-01-31
Fullerton, CA

Radio Active

Premium Member

Re: And in ten years

said by Tokidoki:

It clearly must be a mistake! He must have meant 2121, not 2021.

Finally! Something to live for...

DarkLogix
Texan and Proud
Premium Member
join:2008-10-23
Baytown, TX

DarkLogix

Premium Member

Re: And in ten years

said by Radio Active:

said by Tokidoki:

It clearly must be a mistake! He must have meant 2121, not 2021.

Finally! Something to live for...

no by 2121 sneakernet will make a comeback due to the 1 exobyte caps blocking you from having a holomovie streamed and a holo conferance at the same time

buddahbless
join:2005-03-21
Premium

buddahbless to Duramax08

Member

to Duramax08
love ur sarcasm, as I share the same humor....

TuxRaiderPen
A Warm Embrace
join:2009-06-02
Outer Rim

TuxRaiderPen to Duramax08

Member

to Duramax08
Correct. In 2021, what Netflix envisions is my neighbor renting a DVD (the moovie industry will still claim that's a viable medium), and I'll hook up a webcam via gigabit ethernet strung through the kitchen windows and I'll get to watch from his living room until his 2 year old knocks the webcam into the garbage disposal.

Edit: I just realized I blew through the cap ordering the webcam, so yeah, it probably won't come to fruition.

Mike Wolf
join:2009-05-24
Tuckerton, NJ

Mike Wolf

Member

Re: And in ten years

forget the gigabit cabling, just use a wireless 802.11 y connection which supports speeds of 3 Tbps

buddahbless
join:2005-03-21
Premium

buddahbless

Member

IS Netfiix launching a unknown broadband satellite??

That we don't know about, in the next 10 years thats capable of delivering 100mbps or better ( 1gbps) to back these claims that....
Well "ALL" have a gig connection?

Id love to see that...also I ask now where do caps come in there equation with almost 60% of current US broadband users on caps ?
wilburyan
join:2002-08-01

wilburyan

Member

Re: IS Netfiix launching a unknown broadband satellite??

You obviously havn't had the "pleasure" of using satellite internet.
Kamus
join:2011-01-27
El Paso, TX

Kamus to buddahbless

Member

to buddahbless
Netflix would suck via satellite in ways that you can't even begin to imagine.

This will never happen.

Mike Wolf
join:2009-05-24
Tuckerton, NJ

Mike Wolf

Member

Re: IS Netfiix launching a unknown broadband satellite??

oh your so dirty
tmc8080
join:2004-04-24
Brooklyn, NY

1 recommendation

tmc8080

Member

define "ALL"?

This really isn't possible, all the places we have telephone & power "LINES" won't be getting FTTP any time soon, even in 10-- no make that 25 years, or ever, unless we as a country are going to REGULATE the build and provide financial incentives the way we did to get power lines & telegraph & phone lines distributed about 100 years ago.

Following that fantasy.. we can state other lofty goals such as a $15k plug-in gasoline/ethanol hybrid electric vehicle LOADED with features, brand new with 0 miles on it will be mandated (bigger than a golf cart with a roof). Good luck with that one too.

Even getting above 10 megabits will be a challenge in 10 years for rural USA. The simple fact is, if you can deploy 10, there's no reason why it couldn't be 100megabit or 1 gigabit because it's fiber/and/or wireless to get the last miles deployed. At&t will soon realize it's mandate to get rural usa deployed with DSL will NOT be cost effective and will reneg on it's commitment to those "acquired geographies" -- then will try to purge them the way Verizon did. This will mee wtih backlash from regulators because AT&T is no Verizon.
Skippy25
join:2000-09-13
Hazelwood, MO

1 recommendation

Skippy25

Member

Re: define "ALL"?

said by tmc8080:

..... provide financial incentives the way we did to get power lines & telegraph & phone lines distributed about 100 years ago.

We give them financial incentives every day. Have you not seen the quarterly earnings of the big players? Through our current regulations they get to enjoy way more profit then they would in a competitive market. Hell they could roll out fiber to every home and business in every market they serve and pay cash to do it.

This is what a market under monopoly/duopoly control gets you. Huge profits for those companies and little improvements and innovation for the consumer.
flycuban
join:2005-04-25
Homestead, FL

flycuban

Member

1GB? LOL

Hell, I've had DSL since 1995 down here in Miami, when Bellsouth first started running trials. Had 1.5MB, and now the highest is 6MB without U-Crap.... Do they really think people can afford to pay $100 a month just for internet?

wings10
I Am Legend
Premium Member
join:2004-06-09
South Elgin, IL

wings10

Premium Member

Re: 1GB? LOL

said by flycuban:

Hell, I've had DSL since 1995 down here in Miami, when Bellsouth first started running trials. Had 1.5MB, and now the highest is 6MB without U-Crap.... Do they really think people can afford to pay $100 a month just for internet?

But if that $100 gets you your internet to do Phone / TV Viewing / Radio Station Streaming / Music Streaming etc that $100 seems like a great deal for all your entertainment needs.

TheBionic
Funkier than a mohair disco ball.
Premium Member
join:2009-07-06
united state

TheBionic

Premium Member

Re: 1GB? LOL

said by wings10:

said by flycuban:

Hell, I've had DSL since 1995 down here in Miami, when Bellsouth first started running trials. Had 1.5MB, and now the highest is 6MB without U-Crap.... Do they really think people can afford to pay $100 a month just for internet?

But if that $100 gets you your internet to do Phone / TV Viewing / Radio Station Streaming / Music Streaming etc that $100 seems like a great deal for all your entertainment needs.

Not when I have a tv/phone/radio etc. that I already pay for...I can stream music for a lot less than $100 a month.

SimbaSeven
I Void Warranties
join:2003-03-24
Billings, MT
·StarLink

SimbaSeven to wings10

Member

to wings10
said by wings10:

But if that $100 gets you your internet to do Phone / TV Viewing / Radio Station Streaming / Music Streaming etc that $100 seems like a great deal for all your entertainment needs.

No doubt.

One fast Internet connection is all you really need. Everything else can fork from that.

This is what most people don't understand. We don't need a traditional phone line. That's where VoIP comes in. We don't need traditional Cable TV service (channel 0xx, 1xx, etc) when we have IPTV. We've shifted from Analog signals to Digital ones, which is more efficient and can shovel more through.. So why are we still using out-dated tech?

Technology has changed and gotten better, but most Cable and Tel Co's have stuck to the 50+ or 100+ year old tech. Why? It sure as hell isn't cheaper to deploy copper than it is fiber now-a-days with the cost of copper increasing.
Skippy25
join:2000-09-13
Hazelwood, MO

Skippy25

Member

Re: 1GB? LOL

Though I would not argue with your overall statement I will argue with not having a land line.

Last major storm here that took out power for days and the only thing that still worked through the entire thing was the land line.

Cell towers were overwhelmed and once you ran out of battery power that didnt matter anyway because you had no way of charging your phone. Of course internet probably worked, but being that you couldn't turn anything on to check it was a moot point.

KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium Member
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK
Netgear WNDR3700v2
Zoom 5341J

KrK to SimbaSeven

Premium Member

to SimbaSeven
said by SimbaSeven:

One fast Internet connection is all you really need. Everything else can fork from that.

This is exactly what they fear, and want to block. Thus, hello caps and UBB.

If you make the competition artificially expensive, you protect your own services.

It's a crock of manure.

David
Premium Member
join:2002-05-30
Granite City, IL

David to SimbaSeven

Premium Member

to SimbaSeven
said by SimbaSeven:

We don't need a traditional phone line.

Hi, I am david and I live in the midwest, a few yrs ago we lost power here for as least 5+ days. The only connection I had was my landline phone. Cell phone towers were constantly "up and down" some towers out for days on end cause of no power. Ironically I could still get to the internet via (gasp!) dial up modem!

I guarantee if you live around here, your opinion will quickly change.

Yea I know I am old, I still know what a dial up modem is!
jcremin
join:2009-12-22
Siren, WI

jcremin to wings10

Member

to wings10
said by wings10:

said by flycuban:

Hell, I've had DSL since 1995 down here in Miami, when Bellsouth first started running trials. Had 1.5MB, and now the highest is 6MB without U-Crap.... Do they really think people can afford to pay $100 a month just for internet?

But if that $100 gets you your internet to do Phone / TV Viewing / Radio Station Streaming / Music Streaming etc that $100 seems like a great deal for all your entertainment needs.

I don't get it either.. I run a small ISP and watch people who currently pay $40/mo for internet, $80/mo for TV, and another $40/mo for phone service complain when they can't combine those $160 worth of services all over the $40 internet connection. They bitch and moan that they now have to pay $80/mo for a connection fast enough to do all of that, but they are still saving AT LEAST $60/mo once you add in a video streaming service (like Netflix) and a $10/mo VOIP service.

I explain to them that they can't have a small economy car for the gas mileage and expect to also be able to haul a huge camper trailer with it.

buddahbless
join:2005-03-21
Premium

buddahbless to flycuban

Member

to flycuban

thank god for thiefs..LOL

same here my house in rural Kankakee IL I had 1.5 dsl from SBC back in 2002 and then when it went ATT a few yrs back they degraded me to 768k due to line quality.... however some one figured out how to steal the copper out the lines down the road from me, and near the dslam and when ATT had to come and replace it. I now get 3.0 mbps. I never thought id say thanks to a thief...LOL. How many times will it take for them to steal my copper before ATT wires me for fiber ?

Mike Wolf
join:2009-05-24
Tuckerton, NJ

Mike Wolf

Member

Re: thank god for thiefs..LOL

dude its AT&T, ain't no way they'll roll fiber. I hope I'm wrong though.

FFH5
Premium Member
join:2002-03-03
Tavistock NJ

FFH5 to flycuban

Premium Member

to flycuban

Re: 1GB? LOL

said by flycuban:

Hell, I've had DSL since 1995 down here in Miami, when Bellsouth first started running trials. Had 1.5MB, and now the highest is 6MB without U-Crap.... Do they really think people can afford to pay $100 a month just for internet?

And it won't be some huge advantage for Netflix as all the companies delivering broadband to the home are or will be billing by the byte or thru tiers plus overages. People won't be streaming a lot more Netflix to the home like he hopes because they won't be able to afford it.
jkeelsnc
join:2008-08-22
Greensboro, NC

jkeelsnc

Member

Re: 1GB? LOL

True, very likely you sill see a 50mbps connection available at high cost and then of course you can burn up your cap in a couple of days. In which case, it is pointless to subscribe to such a service in the first place or even take advantage of its capability. Might as well just buy the cheapest, slowest service and cancel the netflix subscription. If these companies want to make more money then they need to think about how people want to be able to use the connection. They want more money but yet if they discourage people from subscribing to higher tiers and using the capability of their service then they are going to be stuck with level or decreasing revenues and fall into a pattern of stagnation which they deserve with such silly cap policies.

aaronwt
Premium Member
join:2004-11-07
Woodbridge, VA
Asus RT-AX89

aaronwt to flycuban

Premium Member

to flycuban
said by flycuban:

Hell, I've had DSL since 1995 down here in Miami, when Bellsouth first started running trials. Had 1.5MB, and now the highest is 6MB without U-Crap.... Do they really think people can afford to pay $100 a month just for internet?

Many people pay more than that for Tv or cellphone service. Why should internet service be any different?
jkeelsnc
join:2008-08-22
Greensboro, NC

jkeelsnc

Member

Re: 1GB? LOL

Because $100/mo is outrageous just for internet. You must be living in a gold mine.
talz13
join:2006-03-15
Avon, OH

talz13

Member

Re: 1GB? LOL

said by jkeelsnc:

Because $100/mo is outrageous just for internet. You must be living in a gold mine.

I'd rather pay more for something that I actually use. I never watch much TV, and don't talk on the phone much... $100 for internet wouldn't be bad if I didn't have to pay for the other two.
jcremin
join:2009-12-22
Siren, WI

jcremin to jkeelsnc

Member

to jkeelsnc
said by jkeelsnc:

Because $100/mo is outrageous just for internet. You must be living in a gold mine.

$100/mo for a decent speed is a steal for how much it costs to provide internet to some rural areas. Many are glad to have anything faster than dial-up at all!
ArizonaSteve
join:2004-01-31
Apache Junction, AZ

ArizonaSteve

Member

Then why can't I get anything now?

I doubt they will even have DSL in the Phoenix area by then.
jkeelsnc
join:2008-08-22
Greensboro, NC

jkeelsnc

Member

Re: Then why can't I get anything now?

NO DSL in one of the largest cities in North America? What is QWEST doing out there?

•••
mgamer20o0
join:2003-12-01
Norwalk, CA

mgamer20o0 to ArizonaSteve

Member

to ArizonaSteve
said by ArizonaSteve:

I doubt they will even have DSL in the Phoenix area by then.

my grandpa as DSL in AJ. maybe you are just farther out?

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
MVM
join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI

Nightfall

MVM

Not out of the realm of possibility

Think about it people. Broadband is still a very young technology. Back about 10 years ago, most cities didn't even have it. Heck, we got our first taste of broadband here 12 years ago. In that time, the speeds have increased steadily. New technologies have come around in the form of FIOS and Uverse. I wouldn't bet on 1GB connections either, but I would say that the speeds are going to continue to ramp up and the caps will disappear or go up with them in the coming years.
Skippy25
join:2000-09-13
Hazelwood, MO

1 recommendation

Skippy25

Member

Re: Not out of the realm of possibility

Broadband is no where near a young technology.

Technology improves and moves quite fast. Broadband technology has improved and moved quite fast. Getting it delivered by the monopolistic companies that control it, is the slow and "young" part.

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
MVM
join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI

Nightfall

MVM

Re: Not out of the realm of possibility

said by Skippy25:

Broadband is no where near a young technology.

Technology improves and moves quite fast. Broadband technology has improved and moved quite fast. Getting it delivered by the monopolistic companies that control it, is the slow and "young" part.

Depends on your definition of young I suppose.
Kamus
join:2011-01-27
El Paso, TX

Kamus

Member

Only 1 gigabit?

I actually think he's being rather conservative. (i mean, hell, there's people with gigabit connections ALREADY)

While i agree that the whole "all" statement is naive. We should never underestimate exponential growth.
Those that do this end up predicting stuff like: "the human genome will never be mapped" (and now it can be done in weeks)

Something has to change in the unlicensed deployment arena for this to truly be a nation wide (hell, worldwide) phenomenon.
Because as long as we rely on the fact that only the people with permission from the government can offer connectivity. It just can't happen that easily.

In the end we need the internet to become more of a product than a service, where you simply buy equipment to connect instead of relying on someone else to do it for you and then offer you service with that equipment.

If this somehow managed to become how connectivity outside your home worked, we'd see a surge of innovations from companies that sell products that right now, can only sell their stuff to service providers.

Thankfully, ISP's are making it easy for some really smart people to step up to the challenge with their backwards thinking.

We need a "wifi" for last mile, where we can then connect to different backbones. (and by wifi i don't mean wireless, i mean that the connectivity should be open like wifi is)

While there would still be some inevitable "service" fees for backbone access. I have a feeling it would be much, much cheaper to connect to backbone providers such as Level 3, Akamai, or even Google than paying a conventional ISP. Hell, google would probably do it for free, since they make their money from ads.

treich
join:2006-12-12

treich

Member

is this netflix ceo stupid?

is this netflix ceo stupid or something I dont see 1Gbps in ten years in rural america sorry moron. If so the pricing be way to high for rural america customers.

••••
rdmiller
join:2005-09-23
Richmond, VA

rdmiller

Member

Did I misunderstand?

I didn't go back to the original source, but from Karl's blurb, I don't see where Hastings said everybody would have 14 megabits/sec to the home by 2012. Only that enough would to make Netflix a really, really profitable business.
beaups
join:2003-08-11
Hilliard, OH

1 edit

beaups

Member

Yay, another misinterpretation from BBR

Hastings states we will have average of 14mbps available by 2012. I don't know where you live, Karl, but it's 2011 over here.

I think that's a safe average to forecast. TW is rolling DOCSIS 3 fast and furious (up to 50mbps) and UVERSE already has 24mbps in many markets. Other providers are doing the same.

Now what the average consumer decides to actually BUY could be a different story....but I don't think an average available speed of 14Mbps sounds unreasonable (next year).

•••••

nukscull
@rr.com

nukscull

Anon

So...?

He's assuming and calculating that 1gbit/sec will be the normal connection in 10 years...

And you are assuming that it won't be...

So what's the point of this?

10 years isn't a short time. And if you look at how much speeds changed in the 10 years from 1995 to 2005, it was pretty dramatic. It hasn't been as dramatic for the last 5 years, but that doesn't mean something won't change.

DOCSIS3 tests for 1gbit have already been run, all it takes is perfecting that technology now. Verizon FiOS is fiber, which means it can go to 1gbit and beyond if and when they want it to. And no one knows one way or the other if a new technology will hit that makes it easy to deploy faster speeds in the next 10 years.

I'm sure 10 years ago you didn't think anyone would have 100mbit connections at home in the US either.

CLSuxInTx
@embarqhsd.net

CLSuxInTx

Anon

Re: So...?

Uh I'm guessing you missed the part where he said that "Everyone" will be able to get 1Gbps connections...
88615298 (banned)
join:2004-07-28
West Tenness

88615298 (banned)

Member

In 10 years

my friends that live a mere few miles from town will still be forced to use 56 kbps dial-up.

•••••••
jkeelsnc
join:2008-08-22
Greensboro, NC

jkeelsnc

Member

Broadband Future?

Especially for rural areas I think about the only technology you'll see that has a chance of covering those areas is something like LTE. Maybe it is one of the first wireless technologies that has a chance of providing reasonable high speed service to sparsely populated areas. Like H that any company is going to run expensive fiber out 10 miles to the end of a dirt driveway in Nebraska somewhere. LOL However, if implemented correctly there is some hope for wireless in rural areas but even then don't count on anything close to 100mpbs.

Furthermore, in cities and towns this is really where Fiber should be extended. Even in small towns it would be reasonable to have Fiber to the premises if implemented correctly. For these situations 100mbps is a no-brainer. Even DOCSIS 3.0 is good but there needs to be some other companies offering comparable service that competes with the cable company so that they are motivated to speed up the roll out.

At least where I live ATT and TWC both have been talking about "uverse" and "wideband docsis 3.0" for quite some time (in some cases years) and its still not available in my neighborhood. Furthermore, both companies are bottom feeders. ATT is useless because of caps and TWC is headed that way because of pushing for unworthy and immoral regulation from the NC general assembly to protect their monopoly against municipal Fiber projects. Neither company is worth your money or your time. They don't care about customers just themselves.
jkeelsnc

jkeelsnc

Member

Re: Broadband Future?

In another 10 years you'll be lucky to have 10-20mbps wireless access in rural areas. In most towns you'll be lucky to have 50-100mpbs as your fastest service offering (which is adequate). And then there might be a few towns and many larger cities with neighborhoods where 100mpbs+ is the norm. Pretty much, I think that's what you'll see in about 10 years. Don't expect much more than that.
vabello
join:2011-05-05
Allamuchy, NJ

vabello

Member

Re: Broadband Future?

said by jkeelsnc:

In another 10 years you'll be lucky to have 10-20mbps wireless access in rural areas. In most towns you'll be lucky to have 50-100mpbs as your fastest service offering (which is adequate). And then there might be a few towns and many larger cities with neighborhoods where 100mpbs+ is the norm. Pretty much, I think that's what you'll see in about 10 years. Don't expect much more than that.

I live in a rural wooded area surrounded by deer, bear, wild turkeys, etc... and I have a 50Mb cable connection NOW with the option to get over 100Mb both without caps. That's today, not 10 years. I can see 1Gb in 10 years without a problem. Technology won't be the problem at all. It's having enough competition to force companies to offer consumers these choices. My 3G signal also runs about 7Mb maximum today.
Os
join:2011-01-26
US

Os

Member

1Gbps for ALL!

By then, we'll probably all have 1 GB caps per month, so enjoy paying for that connection!
axiomatic
join:2006-08-23
Tomball, TX

axiomatic

Member

We'll All Have Gigabit Connections In Ten Years...

...everywhere except America.

IowaCowboy
Lost in the Supermarket
Premium Member
join:2010-10-16
Springfield, MA

1 recommendation

IowaCowboy

Premium Member

Rural Broadband

Rural Broadband is a joke. It's 2011 and I first upgraded to broadband from dial-up in 2001 which is ten years ago. Yet still in 2011, many people in rural America unfortunately are stuck in the '90s with dial-up with a maximum throughput of 56 kbps. I don't even think Facebook would work that well on a dial-up connection. The issue is simple to understand; Cable Companies and Telcos want to run their lines where they can serve 8 customers off of one pole and not one customer every couple of miles. I grew up in Iowa and one of my friends who lives in a semi-rural area only has broadband because the area is served by a telecom cooperative which is member owned and they operate a cable system.

In ten years, Urban centers will have Gigabit plus connections but if the current dirty politics continue, even then rural areas will be stuck at 56k. The only reason that rural areas even have electricity is because the government stepped in and subsidized rural electrification through the USDA Rural Utilities Service.
chances14
join:2010-03-03
Michigan

chances14

Member

Re: Rural Broadband

said by IowaCowboy:

Rural Broadband is a joke. It's 2011 and I first upgraded to broadband from dial-up in 2001 which is ten years ago. Yet still in 2011, many people in rural America unfortunately are stuck in the '90s with dial-up with a maximum throughput of 56 kbps. I don't even think Facebook would work that well on a dial-up connection. The issue is simple to understand; Cable Companies and Telcos want to run their lines where they can serve 8 customers off of one pole and not one customer every couple of miles. I grew up in Iowa and one of my friends who lives in a semi-rural area only has broadband because the area is served by a telecom cooperative which is member owned and they operate a cable system.

In ten years, Urban centers will have Gigabit plus connections but if the current dirty politics continue, even then rural areas will be stuck at 56k. The only reason that rural areas even have electricity is because the government stepped in and subsidized rural electrification through the USDA Rural Utilities Service.

the only hope for rural folks like me is that the cord cutting continues and the cable companies are forced to expand into the rural markets
elray
join:2000-12-16
Santa Monica, CA

elray

Member

American Optimism

Hastings is not that far off the mark.

We've seen great progress in broadband in just over a decade, thanks to corporate greed. In our household, we've gone from 256Kbits to 30Mbit (completely unnecessary, but it was cheaper than slower speeds) in 11 years, while the monthly rate is less than half what we paid in 1999.

With today's technology, we're already seeing 10Gb FTTP deployed - with micro-trenching and evolutions in fiber, it won't be long before faster/cheaper entrepreneurial efforts start to spring up, and push us past the current (hold on for 2K buzzword) paradigm.

Ten years from now, yes, indeed, we will be celebrating a lot of Gbit connections. DSLReports will still have its nattering nabobs complaining about caps ("10 Tbytes is unfair!"), and there will still be thousands of places "underserved", because they're on 5G wireless or copper. But millions will have speeds we only dream of today.
jkeelsnc
join:2008-08-22
Greensboro, NC

jkeelsnc

Member

Re: American Optimism

You must live behind the ATT pearly gates in their self delusional heaven somewhere. Nabobs? When you can use up a cap in short order might as well just cancel the stuff. This is propaganda and FUD designed to keep people suckling on the ATT determined supply of milk. There is no need for CAPS if what you say is true about fiber. But if thats true why have they been talking about that for years and its still not here. I don't see the service available in this area despite their talk except one or two neighborhoods which does NOT count as "widespread" deployment. Hush your corporate mouth and go take a nap or i'll set you in your high chair and turn it toward the corner for you until you wake up and smell reality.
elray
join:2000-12-16
Santa Monica, CA

elray

Member

Re: American Optimism

said by jkeelsnc:

You must live behind the ATT pearly gates in their self delusional heaven somewhere. Nabobs? When you can use up a cap in short order might as well just cancel the stuff. This is propaganda and FUD designed to keep people suckling on the ATT determined supply of milk. There is no need for CAPS if what you say is true about fiber. But if thats true why have they been talking about that for years and its still not here. I don't see the service available in this area despite their talk except one or two neighborhoods which does NOT count as "widespread" deployment. Hush your corporate mouth and go take a nap or i'll set you in your high chair and turn it toward the corner for you until you wake up and smell reality.

If you paid any attention here, you'd know I'm not a fan of AT&T, though I will admit, their U-Verse product is finally coming around.

Caps will be a short-lived phenom that Karl milks for all they're worth, much as I'd like to see UBB as a choice for everyone; the mishandling of caps will backfire, and the major ISPs will drop them in favor of traditional speed tiers with higher base charges and throttling.

Where caps do survive, they will be raised substantially as consumption increases, so that only the top 2% - the much-celebrated data hogs, will be affected, and they will be offered a higher tier on a non-punitive scale.

We've already crested the punitive overage model. It won't be back.

HastingNoClu
@acsalaska.net

HastingNoClu

Anon

Really? 10 years of progress?

Hastings needs to stop pandering to day traders/stockholders and get a reality check.

Background
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»en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchorage
Anchorage, Alaska
Population (2010)[1] 291,826 (64th in U.S.)
- Density 171.9/sq mi (66.4/km2)
- Metro 374,553

Synopsis
------------------------------------------------------
A little over 10 years ago ATU (Anchorage Telephone Utility) the municipal owned ILEC was sold to private interests. ATU became ACS (Alaska Communications Systems. »www.acsalaska.com

Prior to the sale of ATU in 1999, ATU offered 2-3 DSL packages to subscribers. One package was 320/240Kbps for around $50/mo. The highest package ATU offered was 1Mbps/512Kbps for around $99/mo.

It's now 2011, in a region with high population density you'd assume with 10 years of technological progress and the wonders of private enterprise (lol), that an ISP like ACS would have made substantial investment to existing infrastructure. Sadly ACS has done very little to shorten loops and deploy new DSLAM to improve residential offerings.

Let's look at ACS's offerings for 2011..
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»www.alaskacommunications ··· les.aspx

3 Mbps / 512 Kbps - $89.00
1 Mbps / 320 Kbps - $69.00
320 Kbps/240 Kbps - $49.00

As expected, prices get worse in some of the smaller less dense cities with populations less than 30,000. Where's the significant progress Mr. Hastings?

Chuck kCAR
@bell.ca

Chuck kCAR

Anon

Make than 100 years in Canada

Broadband internet for Canadians is a luxury service. I guess in one hundred years time Canadians will be able to subscribe to 100 megabit service but a mere one percent of the population will be able to afford it and caps and overuse charges put it out of the question for the average working person.

•••

KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium Member
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK

KrK

Premium Member

Netflix: We'll be out of business in Ten Years

My prediction has a MUCH HIGHER probability then his.
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