  Romney2012Defeat Obama 2012-Chg we can believe inPremium
join:2002-03-03
USA
kudos:4
2 edits |  CoC & ROI
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My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page | |
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 |  KrKHeavy Artillery For The Little GuyPremium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK
 ·AT&T DSL Service
| Re: CoC & ROI The issue that holds this back is ROI and what they consider acceptable profit.
You and I might think 10% profit after all expenses is great... but who knows what they might have targeted. They may be sitting back until it's 50% profit or more.... which means we could be waiting awhile.
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"Regulatory capitalism is when companies invest in lawyers, lobbyists, and politicians, instead of plant, people, and customer service." - former FCC Chairman William Kennard (A real FCC Chairman, unlike the current Corporate Spokesperson in the job!) | |
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| | | | Re: CoC & ROI it will be a very long time for cable because the customers dont want to pay for the upgrades | |
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| | | | | Re: CoC & ROI now that I can log in... If you look at the FiOS project and how fast the price is going up.. Just imagine Comcast put in the same position.. | |
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| | | EDFAs and power dividers replace the node, replace the coax with fiber with niu's at the premise and do all Gqam transport. Start with new areas and expand into areas that need rebuilt. Add a direct (or remote) network control system in the headend. It can also be done preserving an existing analog tier if the marked demands it. Not only is fiber cheaper than coax it would do away with power supplies, electrical distortion anomalies and CLI requirements. Capital better spent with a longer ROI.
Makes sense and I'm not even a vendor, LOL. | |
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|  N3OGHYo Soy Col. "Bat" GuanoPremium
join:2003-11-11
Philly burbs
kudos:1 | Comcast will switch to all fiber when the think it's the best economic decision.
I think most companies in America are incredibly short sighted. Comcast is looking to wring out as much profit quarter to quarter.
10 years from now, Comcast is going to be in a similar position to Verizon. Except it will be Comcast bleeding TV subs to Verizon, and not Verizon bleeding land lines to Digital Voice, and other VoIP offerings. Then Comcast will be installing FTTH.
Except 10 years from now, it will cost significantly more for them to do it.
But what do I know? I mean, after all I spend 45 minutes on the phone last nigh trying to explain to the Comcast CSR that I can't return a DVR box I all ready turned in, and that my bill should be for $51 and not $89, as I DON'T HAVE THE DAMN BOX ANYMORE!
grrr 
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Petty people are disproportionably corrupted by petty power… | |
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| |  wifi4milezBig Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace
join:2004-08-07
New York, NY | Re: CoC & ROI said by N3OGH:10 years from now, Comcast is going to be in a similar position to Verizon. Except it will be Comcast bleeding TV subs to Verizon, and not Verizon bleeding land lines to Digital Voice, and other VoIP offerings. Then Comcast will be installing FTTH. Except 10 years from now, it will cost significantly more for them to do it. I disagree. In 10 years the cost to roll out fiber will actually be much cheaper than it is today. Look at Verizon's FIOS rollout; their cost per sub is already down more than 20% in the past 2 or 3 years, and continues to go down as equipment and plant prices drop. As fiber becomes more of a "mainstream" option for carriers, the prices will get so low that using copper will actually be more expensive to deploy (that will take more than 10 years however).
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Весна прибыла | |
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| | | Sammer
join:2005-12-22
Canonsburg, PA | Re: CoC & ROI said by wifi4milez:I disagree. In 10 years the cost to roll out fiber will actually be much cheaper than it is today. Look at Verizon's FIOS rollout; their cost per sub is already down more than 20% in the past 2 or 3 years, and continues to go down as equipment and plant prices drop. As fiber becomes more of a "mainstream" option for carriers, the prices will get so low that using copper will actually be more expensive to deploy (that will take more than 10 years however). The cost of the fiber optical cable and equipment may very well go down but the cost of labor won't. Verizon costs per sub have gone down because their farther along the learning curve. If the cost of the labor was zero most of us would probably have FTTP today. | |
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| | | | | | Re: CoC & ROI The way things are going, I would think that a national cost for labor of 0 should be achieved by 4th quarter, 08.  | |
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| | | | Reviews:
 ·Cox HSI
·World Lynx
1 edit | said by Sammer:said by wifi4milez:I disagree. In 10 years the cost to roll out fiber will actually be much cheaper than it is today. Look at Verizon's FIOS rollout; their cost per sub is already down more than 20% in the past 2 or 3 years, and continues to go down as equipment and plant prices drop. As fiber becomes more of a "mainstream" option for carriers, the prices will get so low that using copper will actually be more expensive to deploy (that will take more than 10 years however). The cost of the fiber optical cable and equipment may very well go down but the cost of labor won't. Verizon costs per sub have gone down because their farther along the learning curve. If the cost of the labor was zero most of us would probably have FTTP today. And your point is?? Should these techs be working for free? Install techs gotta put food on the table and pay bills like the rest of us.  Cost of labor to install fiber will then be equal to copper once the costs come down on the hardware. Wouldn't be any excuse for the ILECs to not install fiber then... | |
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| | | | | said by wifi4milez:said by N3OGH:10 years from now, Comcast is going to be in a similar position to Verizon. Except it will be Comcast bleeding TV subs to Verizon, and not Verizon bleeding land lines to Digital Voice, and other VoIP offerings. Then Comcast will be installing FTTH. Except 10 years from now, it will cost significantly more for them to do it. I disagree. In 10 years the cost to roll out fiber will actually be much cheaper than it is today. Look at Verizon's FIOS rollout; their cost per sub is already down more than 20% in the past 2 or 3 years, and continues to go down as equipment and plant prices drop. As fiber becomes more of a "mainstream" option for carriers, the prices will get so low that using copper will actually be more expensive to deploy (that will take more than 10 years however).
Have you seen the price of copper recently. People are stealing utility power lines for the copper. They are also stealing the catalytic converters off of cars for the copper. Copper prices are going up while fiber prices are going down. If the trend continues, I predict in 5 years or less it will be cheaper to run fiber cables than copper cables. At that time it would be better for the cable companies to sell their copper cables and replace it with fiber; that is, if copper thieves don't get to them first. | |
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| | | |  MacLeechThe one and onlyPremium
join:2001-07-14
SoCal
kudos:3
1 edit | Re: CoC & ROI Coax cables are mainly aluminum and foam. The copper is only a microns thick layer on top of an aluminum center conductor.
Due to the foam, plastic jacket, and other man made materials in the cable, I can't see it being especially cost effective to sell or steal. I'm sure most thieves are pissed when they realize there's hardly any copper in it.
They're even more pissed when they cut into fiber thinking it's copper wire though.... | |
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| | | | |  CColon
join:2008-04-20
Philadelphia, PA | Re: CoC & ROI I am pretty sure the whole conductor is copper. But, what do I know? I just work with the stuff every single day... | |
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| | | | | | MacLeechThe one and onlyPremium
join:2001-07-14
SoCal
kudos:3
1 edit | Re: CoC & ROI
A cross section of 500 coax cable I just cut out yesterday... | 
Snapshot of 500 spec sheet from Commscope | P3 500 JCA.pdf
Actual Commscope spec sheet |
said by CColon:I am pretty sure the whole conductor is copper. But, what do I know? I just work with the stuff every single day... Unless you're working with long coax runs to satellite (LNBs need power) or other coax applications that use frequencies below 10 Mhz, having the entire center conductor made of copper is a waste of money...
I'd check your cable again. | |
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| | patcat88
join:2002-04-05
Jamaica, NY
kudos:1 | Comcast wont be in the same position as Verizon, Comcast still has customers in "We dont give a ****" land (Embarq, Windstream, Qwest) and inferior 99 cent TV from ATT. | |
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|  tomkbPremium
join:2000-11-15
Tampa, FL
kudos:5 | said by Romney2012:The cost of capital and return on investment are 2 financial terms that will affect this decision. Comcast, and any other large corporation, has dozens of financial analysts that make these kinds of evaluations all the time. Comcast will switch to all fiber when the numbers are persuasive that that is the best economic decision and not before. Good point. There is one other catalyst, when one of there competitors begins to offer it. | |
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| Reviews:
 ·Verizon FiOS
| said by Romney2012:...Comcast will switch to all fiber when the numbers are persuasive that that is the best economic decision and not before. as long as the existing monopoly/duopoly market persists, there will be no reason for comcast to go all fiber under any ROI conditions. With a captive market, there will simply be no reason for them to spend the money and they will incrementally upgrade their hybrid cable plant to squeeze as much as possible out of it, just like ATT is doing with copper.
I'm still amazed Verizon actually decided to lay fiber and the only reason I can think of is they panicked when they realized the rate at which they were losing POTS customers and decided to "future proof" their network for the coming convergence of broadband/tv/voice. | |
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| | doint good well i think the cable companies have time. With splitting nodes,docsis 3,switched video,etc they have some time.
HEck I am happy with my 30/5 boost connection from cablevision. | |
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 gatorkramKaBOOM BabyPremium
join:2002-07-22
Winterville, NC
kudos:2
·Suddenlink
| The media doesn't matter... when they aren't selling products that demand more than they could already be offering.
My cable system, for example, is still running DOCSIS 1.1
What on earth are they going to deploy fiber for, when people are sucking down the crap they already offer.
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Give me bandwidth or give me death!
»/testhistory/661871/4f240 | |
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|  espaethDigital PlumberPremium,MVM
join:2001-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
kudos:2
 ·Clear Wireless
1 edit | Re: The media doesn't matter... said by gatorkram:when they aren't selling products that demand more than they could already be offering. It's definitely an issue of demand, but it's a lack thereof on the consumer side.
Most broadband providers offer multiple tiers of service, and the overwhelming majority of their subscriber base falls into the lowest/cheapest class of service. That doesn't exactly motivate companies to push wide-scale development on the top end of service. | |
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 DaveDudeNo Fear
join:1999-09-01
New Jersey
kudos:1
 ·Vonage
·ViaTalk
| Customer dead end I still cant buy a cablecard ready tv, thats going to work on cable. all cablecard v1 sets are going to stop working when sdv happens. So really this isnt a question for me. When digital cable ready cablecard sets are available let me know, otherwise i can care less. FIOS looks better every day | |
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| MacLeechThe one and onlyPremium
join:2001-07-14
SoCal
kudos:3
2 edits | Re: Customer dead end said by DaveDude:I still cant buy a cablecard ready tv, thats going to work on cable. all cablecard v1 sets are going to stop working when sdv happens. So really this isnt a question for me. When digital cable ready cablecard sets are available let me know, otherwise i can care less. FIOS looks better every day FIOS is going to have the same issue with CableCards devices when they run out of the 860Mhz RF space they're using for video... they'll either do IPTV (rumored) or SDV.
On top of IPTV or SDV, adding channels by encoding channels with MPEG4 or adding spectrum upto 1 GHz will cause issues for all of those current CableCARD devices too, so it's not just a 2-way communication issue (call it iDCR, NOT CableCARD v2).
I'm not even sure if the iDCR spec (2-way CableCARD) will even work on equipment connected to FIOS, since it uses a non cable standard method of upstream communications... It's not using the industry standard methods of integrated DOCSIS modem, Moto return protocol, or SA return protocol; it's using IP through MOCA.
P.S. My CableCARD equipped TV works fine connected to cable... for now. | |
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| | patcat88
join:2002-04-05
Jamaica, NY
kudos:1 | Re: Customer dead end RF upgrades aren't an issue, the tuner is in the TV, not the cable card, the cablecard gets a baseband digital signal to decode, not a RF channel. | |
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bgraham
join:2001-03-15
Smithtown, NY Reviews:
·Verizon VoiceWing
·Verizon FiOS
·VOIPo
| It's All About $$$ I agree with everyone who says it's all about money.
As soon as fiber looks a better financial deal cable co's will switch. Maybe copper will transmit a couple of terrabyts easily in a year or two. It could be that wireless will be the way to go in a few years anyway and fiber and copper will get left in the dust.
Remember the customer pays if cable co's spend billions for a fiber network that is outdated in 5 years or so by new technology. | |
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| KrKHeavy Artillery For The Little GuyPremium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK Reviews:
·AT&T DSL Service
| Re: It's All About $$$ That's the point tho. Now FTTH would actually be cheaper then building out Hybrid Co-Ax from scratch, so definitely in new development it should be FTTH all the way, and the argument is any expansion of services or upgrades of infrastructure and facilities should be all fiber too as it's simply cheaper.
Now, whether there are any savings to be had in replacing existing, fully-operational Hybrid Fiber/Co-axial systems remains to be seen. At this time no, but for future expansion, most definitely.
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"Regulatory capitalism is when companies invest in lawyers, lobbyists, and politicians, instead of plant, people, and customer service." - former FCC Chairman William Kennard (A real FCC Chairman, unlike the current Corporate Spokesperson in the job!) | |
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| | espaethDigital PlumberPremium,MVM
join:2001-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
kudos:2 Reviews:
·Clear Wireless
| Re: It's All About $$$ said by KrK:That's the point tho. Now FTTH would actually be cheaper then building out Hybrid Co-Ax from scratch, so definitely in new development it should be FTTH all the way, and the argument is any expansion of services or upgrades of infrastructure and facilities should be all fiber too as it's simply cheaper. There's costs associated with having a varied product portfolio though.
You're talking about replacing the head-end CMTS with a different piece of gear (likely non-Cisco) that would require retraining of head-end engineers. You have to re-write all of your call center support documentation, alter the training program for your field techs, procure new testing gear that you aren't using anywhere else in the country, forge new supply vendor relationships to get ONT hardware to terminate the fiber at each house, retool the entire video distribution solution to deliver pure IP-based video, and stock separate equipment spares than you use anywhere else in the country. | |
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| | MacLeechThe one and onlyPremium
join:2001-07-14
SoCal
kudos:3
1 edit | Re: It's All About $$$ They've done more than just replace all the active gear in the systems with 1 Ghz gear... they've also segmented many nodes to service much smaller areas and push out LOTS of fiber much deeper into the areas they service.
Besides much of that 1 Ghz gear was installed to replace stuff rated at 750 Mhz and possibly lower. 250Mhz of space will get you 42 NTSC 6Mhz channels or space for at least 84 HD channels (more with MPEG4) or plenty of space for DOCSIS 3 downstreams (which could be used for IPTV) with spectrum left over.
Also check out the nodes they've installed... they're CWDM capable among other things. Each physical node could be split into a few virtual nodes each with separate downstream and upstream spectrum.
So it's more than "a little more spectrum". 1 Ghz of spectrum can carry 158 QAM256 channels, at 38 Mbps each that's 6 Gbps of data bandwidth total... cable is far from using it to it's full potential. | |
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|  Anonymous_AnonymousPremium
join:2004-06-21
127.0.0.1
kudos:2
·RoadRunner Cable
·Comcast
·Time Warner VOIP
1 edit | said by bgraham:I agree with everyone who says it's all about money. As soon as fiber looks a better financial deal cable co's will switch. Maybe copper will transmit a couple of terrabyts easily in a year or two. It could be that wireless will be the way to go in a few years anyway and fiber and copper will get left in the dust. Remember the customer pays if cable co's spend billions for a fiber network that is outdated in 5 years or so by new technology. wireless sucks it adds too much lantcy and only half duplex | |
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| | KrKHeavy Artillery For The Little GuyPremium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK Reviews:
·AT&T DSL Service
| Re: It's All About $$$ Wireless for TV actually works well.
I used to have TV service from a company called Heartland Wireless. They were great because you could be 25 miles outside of town and still receive service just fine.
Biggest negatives was the antenna, and the fact they only were licensed to operate in a set spectrum. Result was they topped out at about 35 channels tops. DISH and DTV came along and put them out of business. Still they had cheap reliable service and there wasn't very many wireless TV operators out there....
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"Regulatory capitalism is when companies invest in lawyers, lobbyists, and politicians, instead of plant, people, and customer service." - former FCC Chairman William Kennard (A real FCC Chairman, unlike the current Corporate Spokesperson in the job!) | |
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| | | espaethDigital PlumberPremium,MVM
join:2001-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
kudos:2 Reviews:
·Clear Wireless
| Re: It's All About $$$ said by KrK:Wireless for TV actually works well. Wireless TV? Maybe each TV can have an adjustable dipole antenna to fine-tune the reception. We can call the antenna "rabbit ears".
Nah.. it'll never work.  | |
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| patcat88
join:2002-04-05
Jamaica, NY
kudos:1 | said by bgraham: It could be that wireless will be the way to go in a few years anyway and fiber and copper will get left in the dust. Bullshit. Cable is wireless technology without the wires or the antennas touching. You'll ALWAYS without any exception get more data through. | |
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 alchav
join:2002-05-17
Palm Desert, CA |  Make plans now for FTTH on new Roll-Outs!
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 sbrookPremium,Mod
join:2001-12-14
Ottawa
kudos:4
·TekSavvy Cable
·Rogers Hi-Speed
| The crazy part is ... FTTH is considered cost prohibitive and yet by actually implementing FTTH they'd bring the cost of FTTH down dramatically because the production costs would plummet from doing it in bulk. Early DOCSIS modems were expensive beasts, now produced for very low cost. The same would happen with Fibre. The cost of the fibre equipment would plummet. | |
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| EPS
join:2008-02-13
Hingham, MA | Re: The crazy part is ... An excellent point- this is already being seen with Verizon. | |
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| | | | Re: The crazy part is ... said by EPS:An excellent point- this is already being seen with Verizon. Yea let verizon do all the work of bringing the price down and doing the testing in the US. Then when the price has come down jump in. | |
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| | IPTV and Analog I'd say if the Cable Co's would get rid of Analog and migrate to IPTV, coax would do just fine....but both eliminate the "grandma with no cable box", therefore making this unlikely. | |
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| patcat88
join:2002-04-05
Jamaica, NY
kudos:1 | Re: IPTV and Analog Grandma is stealing cable TV by having outlets without programing duplication charges. | |
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 LLStarksBetter Than YouPremium
join:2003-12-03
Roslyn, NY
·Optimum Online
| Cable wants to stay cable I'd imagine on some level that companies like Comcast have a vested, if not arrogant, interest in being able to say "Yeah, we're cable."
If you take hybrid-fiber-coax away and replace it with fiber, you're no longer a cable provider in the strictest sense of the word.
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I know before you even speak that you're wrong. | |
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See 6 replies to this post |
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 TechieZeroTools Are Using MePremium
join:2002-01-25
Gibsonton, FL |  Aren't they doing this already?
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