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Still No Sign Of The Exaflood
Growth is strong, but far from unmanageable...
by Karl Bode 05:26PM Tuesday Aug 05 2008
Broadband industry lobbyists and PR departments have ceaselessly predicted a bandwidth crunch that never seems to arrive, usually because they're trying to justify a new policy or rate hike, stave off regulation -- or in the case of hardware vendors, sell network management hardware. Buried beneath the roar of the "exaflood" chicken littles are more cautioned voices like that of University of Minnesota researcher Andrew Odlyzko, one of the nation's top experts on global Internet traffic. Odlyzko repeatedly notes that while growth is strong, it doesn't necessitate drastic new pricing model shifts (metered billing), or wailing to the heavens:
"Traffic growth is still quite fast, so in some sense you could say yes, we’re on the way to the exaflood or we’re already in it. The issue is: Is this a reason for panic or action or throwing money at service providers so they could build out new links, etc., and the answer is no, because this growth rate, 50% per year, can be accommodated with essentially the current level of capital investment. We see more of a slowdown than a speed-up."
Odlyzko estimates that average US monthly Internet traffic is between 900 and 1550 petabytes per month, up from 750 to 1250 petabytes at the end of 2007. Still, Odlyzko says there's no sign of the perpetually impending Internet collapse. "There is not a single sign of an unmanageable flood of traffic," Odlyzko says via his website, where all of his data is easily visible. "If anything, a slowdown is visible more than a speedup," he says. Odlyzko suggests that ISPs should stop fearing traffic growth and work on ways to stimulate it.

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Schererville, IN

2 recommendations

reply to Matt3

Re: Slowdown

said by Matt3:

Metered billing slows consumption while increasing the profitability of each customer and providing a new revenue stream for network upgrades.
Metered billing is an attempt to make internet connections as profitable as text messages. And the profit isn't for upgrades, it's for increased stock prices.

Laguna Hills, CA

2 recommendations

That's the whole point

ISPs aren't afraid of traffic. They're afraid of video competition.

SexaT duorP
Saint Louis, MO

2 recommendations

reply to Anonymous_

Re: how many mb is torrent?