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T-Mobile Won't Launch 4G For At Least 2 Years
Going to nurse HSPA+ to the very end of the line...
by Karl Bode Tuesday 17-Aug-2010 tags: business · wireless · bandwidth
We already knew that T-Mobile planned to nurse HSPA+ for as long as possible, and that their fourth generation wireless broadband plans were murky at best. Rene Obermann, CEO of T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom, says the company won't even consider making a move on LTE for at least two years. According to Obermann, the company isn't worried that they'll lag LTE efforts by Verizon and AT&T, who'll both have deployments underway by that time. Says Obermann:

"We'll get a fourth-generation wireless network either by buying spectrum or re-farming existing spectrum, or potentially leasing spectrum together with others. I don't think we'll trail others in the next two years. With HSPA+ we're in a very good position. We still have plenty of capacity, so we are competitive" said Obermann.

T-Mobile does have some time (but not a lot) to dilly dally as they consider their next move. The company's current upgrades allow theoretical downstream speeds of up to 20 Mbps, and there have been rumors they'll try to push HSPA+ towards 40 Mbps down the line. While Verizon plans to offer 4G services by the end of this year, their LTE deployment will be initially capped at 5-12 Mbps downstream. AT&T meanwhile is taking their time on the shift to LTE, and like T-Mobile is nursing HSPA+ -- albeit less aggressively.

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pnh102
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Zoom...

Looks like T-Mobile is in a race with Qwest to see who can get to being "Yesterday's Phone Company" fastest.
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N3OGH
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Re: Zoom...

T-Mobile.

The Camden, NJ of wireless providers.
jesseb_66

join:2002-12-06
Tucson, AZ
I don't see it that way. Their upgraded 3G is faster than what anyone is doing at the moment including 4G. They also are very aggressively deploying their 3G to cover their footprint.
openbox9

join:2004-01-26
Alexandria, VA
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Re: Zoom...

said by jesseb_66:

They also are very aggressively deploying their 3G to cover their footprint.
Too bad T-Mobile's footprint isn't larger. That's really where it needs to invest resources.

Gbcue
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Re: Zoom...

said by openbox9:

said by jesseb_66:

They also are very aggressively deploying their 3G to cover their footprint.
Too bad T-Mobile's footprint isn't larger. That's really where it needs to invest resources.
As it's been said many times, T-Mobile focuses on urban areas only. It might stretch out to partial rural areas, but that's not where its focus is.
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openbox9

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Re: Zoom...

I'm aware of T-Mobile's current footprint, hence my statement that it needs to expand it
Big Dawg 23

join:2002-03-27
Northfield, MN
said by Gbcue:

said by openbox9:

said by jesseb_66:

They also are very aggressively deploying their 3G to cover their footprint.
Too bad T-Mobile's footprint isn't larger. That's really where it needs to invest resources.
As it's been said many times, T-Mobile focuses on urban areas only. It might stretch out to partial rural areas, but that's not where its focus is.
THere are parts of Minneapolis/St. Paul that do not get 3G so they are behind the times IMHO.
kaila

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Lincolnshire, IL
AT&T's LTE delays will likely meet that challenge as well.
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DaveDude
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HSPA+ can do just about what LTE can do, i think this is the right approach. LTE is just a new release of UMTS anyway... Besides tmobile saves on roaming costs as well.

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

Re: Zoom...

Yup - given T-Mobile's network spectrum - limited GSM and a decent amount of AWS spectrum (not sure about 700MHz), it makes it difficult for them to deploy.

T-Mobile milking out its investment for HPSA/HSPA+ is a good thing.
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soccerguy

join:2004-06-28
Seattle, WA
I completely disagree. There's work on making HSPA+ run at 84 Mbps. TMO can milk it until then, and deploy LTE when it is relatively inexpensive to do so.

With TMO's 3.5G network outperforming the current "4G" networks, I don't think they have much to worry about with speed. Coverage, however, is another issue for them.

tiger72
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Smart Move

Operators in Europe and Asia are also "nursing" HSPA+ until it's - you know - finally outperformed by LTE.

Something that broadband blogs seem to refuse to acknowledge is that Verizon and Sprint - both CDMA carriers pushing 4g - are *forced* into "4g" prematurely since their existing CDMA technology was effectively End-Of-Life.

Real world speeds of T-Mobile HSPA+ have already surpassed "4g" WiMax, and Canada's HSPA+ networks (Bell & Rogers) are even faster. And that's only the first revision. Pings are already below WiMax.

HSPA+ still has a 28mbps profile (which TMOUSA is skipping), a 42mbps profile, as well as a 56mbps profile that are already tested. 42mbps is already ready for market use.

T-Mobile USA (along with ATT) are using the correct path for GSM operators: Using HSPA+ until it's EOL. And EOL won't be for quite a few years. Because all evidence is pointing to LTE not providing GSM operators with ANY advantage over HSPA+.
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MovieLover76

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Re: Smart Move

Agreed, also you really cannot compare Verizon's switch the 4G to AT&T and T-mobile who are already GSM providers and have a much easier upgrade path than Verizon who will have to support LTE/CDMA hybrid phones to manage virtually rebuilding their entire network.
BlueC

join:2009-11-26
Minneapolis, MN
Well said.

Gbcue
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I just got 5/1mpbs at home on my T-Mobile phone.

Sounds faster than the rest.
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xenophon

join:2007-09-17

Re: Smart Move

I get up to 7-8Mbps on my EVO phone (typically 6) and consistently 10-15Mbps on Clear fixed modem. Others have shown over 20Mbps on Clear.

»dl.dropbox.com/u/1238514/pics/sn···3958.png

FBGuy
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Re: Smart Move

i like how you showed off flash in your screenshot.

cmc0

join:2001-08-03
Bowie, MD
If that's the best Sprint can deliver on 4g, I think T-Mobile will be fine with HSPA+

»www.speedtest.net/result/551368703.png

»www.speedtest.net/result/918025668.png
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tiger72
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T-Mobile USA HSPA+
 

Bell Mobility HSPA+
 

Rogers HSPA+
 
Clear's speeds are certainly improving.

21mbps HSPA+ still has some legs though. I'd be interested in seeing what speeds 42mbps and 56mbps HSPA+ can bring.

And look at those pings. 50ms over wireless? Over 3g. You can play multiplayer FPS' at that latency.
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FBGuy
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Re: Smart Move

said by tiger72:

And look at those pings. 50ms over wireless? Over 3g. You can play multiplayer FPS' at that latency.
been there, done that. it works well actually.
xenophon

join:2007-09-17
Are those with data cards or phones?

Here's a peak Clearwire modem result...



HSPA+ is the practical choice for HSPA carriers for now but as shown in a post below, they'll be able to support fewer users per Hz of spectrum than 4G.
djeremy

join:2004-07-12
San Francisco, CA
Yeah, I'm regularly seeing these speeds in the Bay Area on my Nexus One and we have yet to be upgraded to HSPA+. My N1 won't support HSPA+, but I know T-Mobile has a + phone in the works.

FBGuy
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said by Gbcue:

I just got 5/1mpbs at home on my T-Mobile phone.

Sounds faster than the rest.
what phone do you have again?

Gbcue
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1 edit

Re: Smart Move

said by FBGuy:

said by Gbcue:

I just got 5/1mpbs at home on my T-Mobile phone.

Sounds faster than the rest.
what phone do you have again?
MT3GwG soon to be upgraded to an HSPA+ phone (when it comes out) as I am already out of contract.
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xenophon

join:2007-09-17
Makes sense for HSPA carriers to stay on that path for a while, though they'll be deploying on legacy telcom infrastructure designed for voice. Do they have enough spectrum to deploy the higher speeds to same number of users sharing? Will ATT deploy HSPA+ on 700Mhz as well or just within existing spectrum? Is there a need to really deploy more than 10Mbps per user to mobile users?

My bets are on a Sprint/Tmob merger in 4-5 years when both are ready to go LTE in PCS spectrum. Clear will hopefully stick with WiMAX2 (100M-1G) and compete in landline space.

This infatuation with higher performance per user isn't realistic though given the spectrum limitations. It's more important (today) for wireless carriers to deploy 5-10Mbps to many mobile users at once from same site than 50Mbps to a few users who probably don't really need that.

MovieLover76

join:2009-09-11
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Re: Smart Move

I believe AT&T plans to deploy LTE in it's newly acquired 700Mhz spectrum, that's what i heard so their should be more capacity.

MovieLover76

join:2009-09-11
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I myself don't need more speed I get 1.5 - 3 mbps down on AT&T, what i think is really needed is lower latency.

tiger72
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1 edit
said by xenophon:

Makes sense for HSPA carriers to stay on that path for a while, though they'll be deploying on legacy telcom infrastructure designed for voice. Do they have enough spectrum to deploy the higher speeds to same number of users sharing? Will ATT deploy HSPA+ on 700Mhz as well or just within existing spectrum? Is there a need to really deploy more than 10Mbps per user to mobile users?
I'm not sure about T-Mobile's backend infrastructure, but they've stated that one of the benefits to launching later is that they have a more efficient 3g HSPA network than the competition (hint ATT). HSPA+ allows operators to implement a lot of the cheaper, more efficient technologies of LTE at a fraction of the cost. Most notably an All-IP network backend. Based upon the low pings and rapid upgrade to HSPA+, i have a feeling that T-Mobile is already using newer, non legacy gear for their 3.5g network. I'm not sure, of course, but when compared to the high pings and lower throughput of ATT's network, that's what it looks like.
Overall, the benefits of HSPA+ and LTE are higher spectrum efficiency. In a given 10mhz or 20mhz block, they can support more users at higher speeds. The thing is, the benefits of LTE aren't significantly better than HSPA+. LTE-Advanced is another story, but that won't be ready for another 2-3 years (which happens to be when most operators plan on switching to LTE).
My bets are on a Sprint/Tmob merger in 4-5 years when both are ready to go LTE in PCS spectrum. Clear will hopefully stick with WiMAX2 (100M-1G) and compete in landline space.

This infatuation with higher performance per user isn't realistic though given the spectrum limitations. It's more important (today) for wireless carriers to deploy 5-10Mbps to many mobile users at once from same site than 50Mbps to a few users who probably don't really need that.
As I alluded to above, the higher performance per user is due to increased spectral efficiency. I'm simplifying here, but right now they may be able to fit about 20 users on a tower at 1mbps each, with HSPA+ that increases up to about 160 users per tower at 1mbps each, and with LTE that goes up to about 200. The real gains are had by LTE-A which pretty much quadruples what standard LTE can do.

While that means that people could theoretically get 20mbps on a single device, that's typically shared across however many users are in that sector. So yes, there's a focus on the faster speeds, but those faster speeds are simply at the tower. 7.2mbps spread across 20 users vs 21mbps spread across 20 users...

Of course, operators need to compare the costs with the benefits. Why on earth would a GSM operator with an easy, cheap HSPA+ upgrade path ignore HSPA+ for the relatively small benefit of an expensive, premature LTE deployment?

There's a reason that the only operators pushing for LTE are state-funded Telia-Sonera, and EOL CDMA operators.
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"What makes us omniscient? Have we a record of omniscience? ...If we can't persuade nations with comparable values of the merit of our cause, we'd better reexamine our reasoning."
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xenophon

join:2007-09-17

Re: Smart Move

said by tiger72:

I'm simplifying here, but right now they may be able to fit about 20 users on a tower at 1mbps each, with HSPA+ that increases up to about 160 users per tower at 1mbps each, and with LTE that goes up to about 200. The real gains are had by LTE-A which pretty much quadruples what standard LTE can do.

That's a good summary of my point. 4G can support more users at once at same level than HSPA+ can in same amount of spectrum. Next revision of 4G will support even more.

HSPA+ is obviously a better tactical move to make but they take the risk of potentially being behind in the 4G game each year they delay deploying it.

tiger72
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Re: Smart Move

said by xenophon:

said by tiger72:

I'm simplifying here, but right now they may be able to fit about 20 users on a tower at 1mbps each, with HSPA+ that increases up to about 160 users per tower at 1mbps each, and with LTE that goes up to about 200. The real gains are had by LTE-A which pretty much quadruples what standard LTE can do.

That's a good summary of my point. 4G can support more users at once at same level than HSPA+ can in same amount of spectrum. Next revision of 4G will support even more.

HSPA+ is obviously a better tactical move to make but they take the risk of potentially being behind in the 4G game each year they delay deploying it.
It can, but the increase from 56mbps HSPA+ to 70mbps LTE is pretty small and comes at a premium of about 2-3x the cost per user.

Using 700mhz, Verizon will certainly need that extra capacity headroom. The lower spectrum and larger cell comes at the cost of throughput. Verizon's LTE at 700mhz will be slower than LTE at 1700/1900/2500. So chances are that users on Verizon LTE won't see speeds any faster than T-Mobile HSPA+ at 1700.
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"What makes us omniscient? Have we a record of omniscience? ...If we can't persuade nations with comparable values of the merit of our cause, we'd better reexamine our reasoning."
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Re: Smart Move

said by tiger72:

said by xenophon:

said by tiger72:

I'm simplifying here, but right now they may be able to fit about 20 users on a tower at 1mbps each, with HSPA+ that increases up to about 160 users per tower at 1mbps each, and with LTE that goes up to about 200. The real gains are had by LTE-A which pretty much quadruples what standard LTE can do.

That's a good summary of my point. 4G can support more users at once at same level than HSPA+ can in same amount of spectrum. Next revision of 4G will support even more.

HSPA+ is obviously a better tactical move to make but they take the risk of potentially being behind in the 4G game each year they delay deploying it.
It can, but the increase from 56mbps HSPA+ to 70mbps LTE is pretty small and comes at a premium of about 2-3x the cost per user.

Using 700mhz, Verizon will certainly need that extra capacity headroom. The lower spectrum and larger cell comes at the cost of throughput. Verizon's LTE at 700mhz will be slower than LTE at 1700/1900/2500. So chances are that users on Verizon LTE won't see speeds any faster than T-Mobile HSPA+ at 1700.
Verizon and AT&T both have AWS 1700/2100mhz spectrum holdings so I am betting they are planning on doing a dual band network with AWS focusing into the city with 700mhz to back it up as you start heading into cow town.
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said by tiger72:

Operators in Europe and Asia are also "nursing" HSPA+ until it's - you know - finally outperformed by LTE.

Something that broadband blogs seem to refuse to acknowledge is that Verizon and Sprint - both CDMA carriers pushing 4g - are *forced* into "4g" prematurely since their existing CDMA technology was effectively End-Of-Life.

Real world speeds of T-Mobile HSPA+ have already surpassed "4g" WiMax, and Canada's HSPA+ networks (Bell & Rogers) are even faster. And that's only the first revision. Pings are already below WiMax.

HSPA+ still has a 28mbps profile (which TMOUSA is skipping), a 42mbps profile, as well as a 56mbps profile that are already tested. 42mbps is already ready for market use.

T-Mobile USA (along with ATT) are using the correct path for GSM operators: Using HSPA+ until it's EOL. And EOL won't be for quite a few years. Because all evidence is pointing to LTE not providing GSM operators with ANY advantage over HSPA+.
Especially since their is no set voice standard for either WiMax or LTE.
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morbo
Complete Your Transaction

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00000

T-Mobile's 3g faster than AT&T's 3g

T-Mobile's 3g BEFORE the upgrades outperformed AT&T's upgrades.
NeoandGeo

join:2003-05-10
Harrison, TN

.

It could be 5 years away, and they would still be the fastest more than likely. Their 3G is fast enough to last for years to come.

jelligelatin

@comcast.net

coverage

Every provider has 3g services in my area except tmobile. They still only have "g" speeds here which is real world 20-40kbps, unusably slow for services these days. Im not in a farmtown either, they dont even have good ol edge here yet att flies and the cdma carriers are perfect here. They really need to pick up the coverage pace to be competative.

Gbcue
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Re: coverage

See: »Re: Zoom...
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AVonGauss
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Boynton Beach, FL

1 edit

The Race...

The race in the wireless arena is a bit different and depends on which groups you are targeting. For a typical phone or even smart phone user, speed isn't going to mean as much as coverage, backhaul and accessible spectrum (read: availability). Saying 12 Mbps or 48 Mbps sounds nice, but for that group it won't matter as much in real world usage as far as user experience.

Those looking to replace a wired connection or provide a device such as a laptop with mobile connectivity will care more about speed due to the different activities, but I think cost will limit the replacement of wired connections in the short term. For a single device, 6 Mbps is probably sufficient. What I think is more important is that its available for use by the subscriber when they want to use it.

toddbs98

join:2000-07-08
North Little Rock, AR

Why Rush?

Since T-Mobile's HSPA+ is much faster than Sprints 4G and faster than anything Verizon or ATT has why rush to upgrade?
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